Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / Sub-Saharan African countries in general with particular reference to Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso depend mostly on agriculture which is seen as the main source of income. Agriculture provides income for a large percentage of the rural population, and employs about 70 per cent of its labour force with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about 30 per cent. Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso as well as a large majority of African countries depend on subsistence farming and the cultivation of subsistence crops helps provide food and ensures food security for the people. Although they mostly depend on subsistence crops, they also produce primary export crops such as cocoa for Ghana, coffee for Cameroon, and cotton for Burkina Faso which represent a major source of foreign exchange. Due to the significant importance of agriculture in the above countries Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso, gave great importance to agriculture by part taking in international trade negotiations or agreements on agriculture. These countries were involved more vigorously in the Uruguay Round where agricultural products were fully covered by multilateral trade rules for the first time. Farmers from Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso are faced with so many challenges in exporting their agricultural products to world markets despite their participation in the agricultural trade reforms. They have restricted access to rich countries agricultural markets and they also face unfair competition in their own domestic markets from subsidised imports of food staples from wealthy countries. Other challenges such as: trade barriers, inadequate trade infrastructure (logistics and transportation), and inadequate institution serving farmers and agriculture and lack of technology to transform traditional agriculture are also of great importance. With regard to the above challenges faced by Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso this research is to examine or analyse the impacts that international trade reforms have on the agricultural exports focusing on primary products (cash crops), such as cocoa, coffee and cotton which are a major source of export revenue for these countries and the livelihood basis for millions of rural households who grow these crops. The research will also look at the challenges faced by Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso in exporting their agricultural products to developed countries‘ markets despite their participation in the international trade agreements on agriculture. Taking a look at the international trade reforms it can be seen that while the Uruguay Round will have a significant impact on global trade and economic welfare, its effect on the above countries‘ agricultural exports is expected to be much smaller, and if anything maybe negative. Ghana, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and most African countries are likely to gain slightly from tariff cuts and the elimination of non-tariff barriers on manufactured products. These countries will find themselves slightly worse off as a result of cuts to developed countries' subsidies to their agricultural exports, which tends to increase world food prices.

The most important aim of the thesis is to find out how strong was the impact of the German economic development on the Czech economy from 1993 to 2005, through what kind of linkages could have been such an impact effective, and what are the future prospects in this field.

This study relates market reforms to agricultural trade performance, in particular the export performance of South Africa’s potato industry. The market reform considered here is the deregulation of South Africa’s potato market. Changes in producer prices and volumes of exports and imports are the most important outflows of deregulation that the study focuses upon. In the first part, this study provides an overview of deregulation in the potato industry. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of deregulation on the competitiveness and the level of integration of the South African potato industry in relation to potato markets in the SADC region. Competitiveness is perhaps the most fundamental idea in economics. Agricultural industries often fight to protect or increase their market share both domestically and internationally. The method used here to measure competitiveness is the Revealed Trade Advantage (RTA), a measure based on the share of a country’s net trade in a specific commodity relative to its total international trade. The impacts are investigated individually for the three sub-categories of potatoes: fresh/table, processed and seed. Comparisons are made between South Africa and selected countries in the Southern African region. Basic trend analysis illustrates that domestic potato production has increased significantly over the past decade. Exports as a percentage share of production have increased consistently from the late nineties to reach 8% of domestic production by 2003. However, from 2004 onwards exports have decreased as the domestic informal market for fresh potatoes expanded at a tremendous pace. The results of the Real Trade Advantage (RTA) analysis reveal that South Africa’s potato (fresh) exports are the most competitive in the SADC region. Yet, the competitiveness of the potato supply chain in South Africa was found to be marginal as far as regional competitiveness is concerned. Thus, the potato supply chain exhibits a negative trend in competitiveness when moving from the primary to the processed product. Another approach to gain a better understanding of the possible impact of deregulation on agricultural markets is to analyse the extent to which domestic commodity markets respond to changes in international prices. Hence, the level of price transmission between local and foreign markets can be analysed. The analysis consists of a set of econometric applications. Annual producer prices of various trading nations are analyzed by testing mostly for the existence of long run equilibrium between the price series of the various nations and the dynamics of the relation between the prices and their causality. The results of the price transmission analyses show that the South African potato market is not well integrated with other regional potato markets, despite some trade occurring. This can partly be explained by the fact that over the past decade on average only 6 percent of all potatoes in the local market were exported into the region. Further more one has to take the tradability of the good into consideration when analysing the level of price transmission and, therefore, the level of integration of markets, In other words; can the good be traded or not? Potatoes (fresh) are perishable and bulky and therefore not easy to transport. Export trade in fresh potatoes involves high transport and transaction costs which complicate the process of price transmission across markets. Even in the exceptional cases (Mozambique and Mauritius) where market integration was detected, price transmission was found to occur from South Africa to these countries and not vice versa. Hence, from the empirical evidence of this study it seems as if domestic prices are determined by domestic supply and demand dynamics and regional exports do not influence the formation of prices in the domestic market. Although the liberalization of the South African potato market has led to the lowering of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, only weak evidence was found that there is some level of market integration between South Africa and its main trading partners in the SADC region. Copyright / Dissertation (MScAgric)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

El presente documento analiza los efectos que tuvo el tratado de libre comercio suscrito entre Perú y China en el año 2009 sobre las exportaciones no tradicionales, enfocándose principalmente en las exportaciones de uvas frescas para determinar posibles implicancias. El documento inicia explicando la evolución del mercado peruano y sus exportaciones no tradicionales, así como las exportaciones de uvas antes y después de la implementación del tratado de libre comercio. Luego, se explican algunas de las principales teorías de comercio internacional con las cuales se construyo el modelo de estimación que se encuentra en el documento. Posteriormente, se muestran las variables que son incluidas en el modelo de estimación y su comportamiento a través de los años en los que se realiza el estudio. Finalmente, se muestra el modelo utilizado y los resultados obtenidos del efecto que tuvo directamente la implementación del tratado sobre las exportaciones, aislando los factores sobre los cuales no se tuvo control, donde se encuentra un efecto positivo de la implementación del tratado de libre comercio con china sobre las exportaciones de uvas aumentando las exportaciones en aproximadamente 1.1917% por año. / This document analyzes the effects of the free trade agreement signed between Peru and China in 2009 on non-traditional exports, focusing mainly on fresh grapes exports to determine possible implications. The document begins by explaining the evolution of the Peruvian market and its non-traditional exports, as well as the exports of grapes before and after the implementation of the free trade agreement. Then, some of the main international trade theories with which the estimation model found in the document was constructed are explained. Subsequently, the variables that are included in the estimation model and their behavior are shown throughout the years in which the study is carried out. Finally, it shows the model used and the results obtained from the effect that the implementation of the treaty on exports had directly, isolating the factors over which there was no control, where there is a positive effect of the implementation of the free trade agreement with China on grape exports increasing exports by approximately 1.1917% per year. / Trabajo de investigación

La presente investigación hace un análisis de las exportaciones de granos de café a Bélgica y los efectos de la firma del Acuerdo Comercial entre el Perú y la Unión Europea en el marco del Comercio Justo en el periodo 2012-2018. Diversas cooperativas del Cusco han venido exportando café con la certificación FLO; estas exportaciones se han dado incluso antes de la firma del tratado en referencia. Es así como, este estudio hace, por un lado, un análisis cualitativo a través de entrevistas a profundidad a actores y expertos de la industria cafetera para localizar motivos y percepciones en cuanto a datos relevantes de la industria. Este está seguido de un análisis cuantitativo con datos tomados del Ministerio del Ambiente, Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego y ENAHO, los cuales proporcionan al presente estudio de datos empíricos que presentan diversas perspectivas de como se ha dado el efecto en de la firma. Es así como, basándose en la combinación de estas dos técnicas, esta investigación sugiere dar un enfoque unificado que parta del Gobierno Central, a través de instituciones económicas inclusivas que refuercen la industria cafetera, alineada con el Capítulo IX del acuerdo en referencia, el cual está enfocado en el crecimiento sostenible; así como la implementación de gestión tecnológica y mejoras en gestión comercial dentro de las cooperativas. En ese contexto, el Estado peruano, junto con los empresarios deben aunar una dirección única que conduzca a alcanzar un desarrollo sostenido. / This research analyses the exportation of coffee beans and the effects of the signing of the Trade Agreement between Peru and The European Union within the frame of the Fair Trade in Belgium from 2012 to 2018. Cooperatives in Cusco have been working with the FLO Certification several years before the signing of the Trade Agreement in reference. On one side, this study has carried out a qualitative analysis through depth interviews to actors and specialists in the field in order to uncover hidden reasons and perceptions from actors who work in this industry. This was followed by a quantitative analysis taking data form the Ministry of Environment, and Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, and ENAHO, which offer empirical material that shows diverse views on how the Trade Agreement has impacted cooperatives through the years 2012-2018. Thus, based on the combination of these two techniques, this study suggests a unified approach from the Government through inclusive economic institutions to reinforce the coffee industry in order to serve the Chapter IX on Trade and Sustainable Development, as well as the implementation of technology management and business management within cooperatives. Therefore, many factors may explain the step-backs, some internal, some external. In this context, the Peruvian Government and the cooperatives should bring together a management that conducts a sustained development. / Tesis

Key words: [Supply chain, Correlation, Exports, SCOR Model] / El presente estudio tiene como objetivo principal encontrar la relación entre las etapas integradas de las empresas productoras de uva situadas en Ica y las exportaciones hacia Estados Unidos. El primer capítulo muestra el producto a analizar relacionado al ámbito internacional. Posteriormente, muestra investigaciones previas basadas en estudios referentes al impacto de las prácticas integradas de la cadena de suministro en diferentes organizaciones. Asimismo, presenta bases teóricas acerca de la cadena de suministro, teorías de exportación y de comercio internacional. En el segundo capítulo, se ha desarrollado el plan de investigación, donde presentaremos el problema a tratar, junto con los objetivos e hipótesis de la investigación, además de incluir la situación de la problemática donde tocaremos más a fondo la importancia del presente estudio. El tercer capítulo presenta el enfoque de la investigación a desarrollar, en este caso cuantitativo, asimismo el diseño no experimental de tipo transversal o transaccional correlacional. En el desarrollo de la investigación, el capítulo cuatro, se procesa la información proveniente de las encuestas, para validar las variables utilizadas. Finalmente, en el quinto y último capítulo, se ha de presentar el análisis de los resultados del estudio los cuales señalan las variables más influyentes en las exportaciones según los expertos del sector. El principal hallazgo de esta investigación refiere que de todas las prácticas que forman parte integral de la cadena de suministros de las 30 empresas analizadas, solo aquellas relacionadas con la planificación de ventas y operaciones si tienen relación con sus exportaciones de uva fresca a los Estados Unidos durante el periodo 2012 a 2018. / The present study has as main object to find the relationship between the integrated phases of the grape producing companies located in Ica and the exportations to the United States. The first chapter shows the product to be analyzed related to the international arena. Subsequently, it shows previous research based on studies regarding the impact of integrated supply chain practices in different organizations. It also presents theoretical bases about the supply chain, export theories and international trade. In the second chapter, the research plan has been developed, where we will present the problem to be addressed, together with the research objectives and hypotheses, in addition to including the situation of the problem where we will touch more fully on the importance of the present study. The third chapter presents the research approach to be developed, in this quantitative case, as well as the descriptive and correlational non-experimental cross-sectional or transactional design, by collecting forms to carry out a factor analysis. In the development of the investigation, chapter four, the information from the surveys is processed, to validate the variables used. Finally, in the fifth and last chapter, the analysis of the results of the study must be presented, which indicate the most influential variables in exports according to industry experts. The most important finding of this research concludes that of all the practices that are an integral part of the supply chain of the 30 companies analyzed, only those related to sales and operations planning are related to their fresh grape exports to the United States during the period 2012 to 2018. / Tesis

This study examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the trade flows of Sweden in the presence of so-called structural breaks. The purpose is rooted in the hypothesis that the real exchange rate has been disconnected from global trade flows in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. Using both aggregated and bilateral trade data from Sweden’s six major trading partners from the period 2004 to 2018, significant breaks are detected in 10 out of 14 cases by the Bai and Perron (1998) approach, indicating that the effect of the exchange rate has changed. However, the breaks are widespread and the coefficient estimates show no clear pattern and hence unequivocal evidence for the hypothesis of a disconnect. Despite the ambiguous evidence, the cointegration tests suggests that there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and trade flows of Sweden.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第24924号 / エネ博第466号 / 新制||エネ||87(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 MCLELLAN Benjamin, 教授 宇根﨑 博信, 教授 河本 晴雄 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

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