This dissertation consists of three essays that collectively investigate the relationship between exports, macroeconomic policy and economic growth. The first essay investigates the relationship between disaggregated exports and growthto address why many developing countries rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods.Using regression tree analysis, I find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. The results imply that a country needs a minimum level of education before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports. Thesecond essay explores the impact of fiscal episodes on the extensive and intensive margins of exports for a sample of OECD countries. In general, a fiscal stimulus in an exporting country is associated with a substantial decrease in each margin. However, a fiscal consolidation in an exporting country is associated with a large increase in the extensive margin, yielding a positive net effect on total exports. This positive effect of a consolidation disappears when an importing country simultaneously experiences a fiscal episode. Overall, the effect of fiscal episodes on total exports and the export margins yield important ramifications for policy-makers. The third essay takes a broad perspective in characterizing the relationship between disaggregated exports, macroeconomic policy, and economic growth. Few studies consider that macroeconomic policy may influence growth, at least partly, through the export channel and none consider that this impact may differ for primary and manufacturing exports. I first explore the determinants of disaggregated exports to empirically test whether macroeconomic policy influences the size of the export sector in a country. Second, I use simultaneous equations methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic policy and exports on economic growth. Indeed, there appears to be some evidence that macroeconomic policy may affect the level of exports. Moreover, exports appear to exert an influence on growth, but the role of macroeconomic policy in the growth process seems to be only through its influence on other variables.

<p>The Sugar Industry in Fiji is facing a lot of problems. Since the Government of Fiji has not fulfilled their commitments to the European Union (EU), the EU has backed away from supporting the industry. The milling efficiency has been constantly declining since the mid 1980’s and farm productivities have not kept pace with the changing international market for sugar. To be able to obtain the economies of scale, the sugar production in Fiji has to increase with 75 % from the current level of production. A lot of towns in Fiji would be nothing without the Sugar Industry, and thousands of people are dependent on the industry for their sustenance. Due to this fact, it is certain that the loss of confidence in the industry, or any likely collapse, would imply disaster for Fiji as a whole. It will lead to serious implications on the economic, social and political stability of Fiji.</p><p>The overall aim of this thesis is to study the effects of the EU measures especially on the Sugar Industry in Fiji, to be able to understand to which extent the industry depends on the support from the EU. The aim is also to analyse and discuss different competition strategies on how Fiji can compete and be a part of the global market of sugar.</p><p>This research was made from a qualitative approach in order to gain a deeper understanding about the problem. Abduction made it possible to work parallel with different parts of the thesis. A combination of primary and secondary data gathering has been used, with the secondary data as a basis for building the empirical part of the thesis. The primary data was collected through in-depth interviews with people at different positions within the Sugar Industry in Fiji.</p><p>Fiji is dependent on the Sugar Industry and since there is no other obvious donor for Fiji today, and it is crucial that the industry gets support, the conclusion is that Fiji also is dependent on the support from the EU. Even though Fiji has the possibility to increase their competitiveness on the regional as well as on the international market, there is no need for Fiji to strive after the world market at the moment.</p>

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This thesis deals with the globalization of production, a salient feature of the modern economy. The development of international outsourcing as a widespread business practice and the simultaneous decrease in trade and transport costs have contributed to the growth of a phenomenon known as global value chains. The main aim of the thesis is to understand how global value chains alter the location of economic activity. The thesis also studies the extent of firms' participation in global value chains and its consequences for firm performance.   The thesis consists of four papers studying the behavior of firms in global value chains. Paper 1 analyzes how production fragmentation influences the importing and exporting behavior of Swedish firms in the manufacturing sector. Paper 2 focuses on manufacturing firms in the ICT sector and analyzes the effect of global sourcing on firm performance. In Paper 3, the thesis examines deeper implications of global production by investigating whether exposure to trade raises firms' sensitivity to external shocks. The final paper in the thesis studies the location patterns of multinational firms and analyzes the effect of institutional distance on the number of multinational entries in developing countries.   A number of patterns emerge from these studies. The first is that Swedish manufacturing firms increasingly participate in global value chains by sourcing production inputs from overseas to create products for local and foreign customers. As a result, global value chains help to alter the specialization patterns of manufacturing firms. The second finding is that firms reap benefits from global sourcing in the form of greater efficiency. However, global sourcing may also raise the responsiveness of firms to negative external shocks. The final key result points to a developing trend in the location of activity in which emerging market multinational firms are becoming significant sources of foreign direct investment flows and their investment patterns challenge existing theories of multinational location choice.

As the world's most populous country, with more than 16 million births every year, China has emerged as a large importer of baby formula. China's relaxation of the one-child policy, which was announced in 2015, is expected to increase the number of births significantly and therefore increase the demand for Chinese and imported baby formula. While information on parent preferences for baby formula is very important for understanding and predicting China's import demand for baby formula and other products used to produce baby formula, like milk powder, there are very limited empirical studies on Chinese parent preferences for baby formula in the literature due to data limitation and other reasons. This research collects primary data from China through a parent survey, uses the data to analyze parent preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for selected baby formula attributes, and derives implications for U.S. dairy product exports. Specifically, with detailed data from a total of 433 respondents, this study first examines parent purchase behavior of baby formula through descriptive analysis, then assesses parent preferences and WTP for selected baby formula attributes through the estimation of a random utility model, and finally derives implications for U.S. exports of milk powder, whey, and other dairy products. The descriptive analysis suggests that education level and income play an important role in parent purchase behavior of baby formula. The estimation results of the random utility model differed according to whether the survey was administered online or as a hardcopy. The results from the online survey indicate that imported, organic, and more reputable brands of baby formula are more attractive to respondents than domestic, non-organic, and less reputable brands. While respondents who completed the hardcopy survey also indicated a preference for organic baby formula from a reputable brand, they preferred domestic baby formula to imported formula. Further analysis of the WTP from the online survey for baby formula showed that parents have a strong preference and are willing to pay significantly more for baby formulas produced in Australia and the U.S. as compared to that produced in China. They are willing to pay more for organic baby formula and baby formula with an excellent reputation. The WTP results from the hardcopy survey indicate that parents are willing to pay more for domestic baby formula. They are also willing to pay more for organic baby formula and baby formula with an excellent reputation. China's emerging demand for imported baby formula, milk powder, and whey may bring more opportunities for the U.S. dairy industry, but U.S. dairy products are also facing increasing competition from similar products from other nations in the Chinese market. More studies are needed to identify the comparative advantages of U.S. baby formula and other dairy products in the Chinese market and to develop effective trade policies for enhancing U.S. exports to China.

In this companion paper to Broll and Mukherjee (2017), we empirically analyse how exchange rate volatilities affect firms optimal production and exporting decisions. The firms elasticity of risk aversion determines the direction of the impact of exchange rate risk on exports. Based on a flexible utility function that incorporates all possible risk preferences, a unique structurally estimable equation is used to estimate the risk aversion elasticities for a panel of Indian service sector (non-financial) firms over 2004-2015, using the quantile regression method.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Vincent Amanor-Boadu / The beef industry is a very important in the food sector of agriculture and over the past two decades the United States beef industry has faced many challenges. Over time the distribution of beef exports have changed due to food safety issues and government policies, not just in the U.S., but on a global scale forcing U.S. beef producers to diversify their export outputs to other countries that were not previously strong leaders in the export business. The U.S. must be strategic in their production decisions in order to continue to compete on a global level to avoid significant loss during adverse conditions. One of the major challenges that the U.S. industry has faced is the discovery of BSE in late 2003 in the state of Washington, which led to the closing of many borders to countries who had a significant impact on the beef industry in the U.S. Since U.S. beef is highly regarded by consumers for its quality worldwide, it is important to understand what changes have taken place in the past to have a full understanding of what changes need to be made in the future. The objective of this thesis is to look at how the distribution of the value, volume and price of U.S. beef exports have changed over the past two decades. By looking at how this has changed we will be able to see what countries are emerging as important customers and how others have declined. This is extremely important since some of the major importing countries have changed or put restrictions on the U.S. beef industry over the past two decades and the industry needs to understand these changes so that they can remain strong in the export sector. By analyzing the global trends of U.S. beef exports by value, volume and price across principal regions of the world, research will show us how to change for future changes. By assessing the effect of the discovery of BSE in the U.S on changes in the distribution of beef exports across the global regions, research will show who emerged when other countries declined. By using this research, the foregoing results will be helpful to inform the industry on what export market strategy can be developed for the U.S. beef industry. The results suggest that BSE had some negative effect on the U.S. beef industry in terms of the value and volume but did not have an impact on the price per pound of beef. Some regions had a larger impact than others when BSE was discovered, such as East Asia, but during this other regions, such as North America, came through and became the leaders in exports for U.S. beef. While there was some growth from the Rest of the World, there was not enough of an impact to compete with the foregoing countries.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017 / This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effect of commodity price volatility on the volatility of the South African exchange rate and subsequently the returns on the equity of commodity producing firms listed on the JSE. GARCH and VAR models evaluate South African exchange rate and stock market data between the years 1995 and 2015. Results show that there exists a spill over and bidirectional relationships between the equity returns volatility and the volatility of the exchange rate. Findings also indicated that international commodity price shocks transmitted into the South African Rand. / MT2017

O presente trabalho é composto de dois artigos que versam sobre temas pouco explorados na orizicultura nacional. Especificamente, objetiva-se investigar aspectos relacionados à procura pelo cereal no mercado doméstico e à sua inserção externa. Para tanto, após uma introdução geral, o trabalho apresenta um artigo sobre a demanda domiciliar de alimentos com destaque para o consumo de arroz e um segundo ensaio que investiga a oferta brasileira de exportação de arroz. O primeiro artigo (segundo capítulo) apresenta as estimativas da demanda domiciliar alimentar brasileira obtidas por meio de um modelo Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) ajustado para o problema do consumo censurado e da endogeneidade das despesas. A base de dados utilizada foi a POF 2008-2009, sendo os produtos selecionados devido à relação de complementariedade e substitutibilidade esperada com o arroz. Os resultados indicam comportamento inelástico da demanda do arroz em relação à renda e ao dispêndio com alimentos no domicílio. Observa-se que as regiões Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Nordeste apresentam maior sensibilidade da demanda a aumentos da renda (dispêndio). A elasticidade-preço própria da demanda não compensada indicou que a variação no preço do arroz impacta mais que proporcionalmente a sua demanda. As elasticidades-preço cruzadas apontam o pão e a farinha de mandioca como importantes substitutos do arroz e o feijão um bem complementar, considerando a demanda domiciliar. Os resultados decompostos em dez estratos de renda per capita familiar indicam maior sensibilidade das famílias de menor renda a variações do preço do cereal e o aumento da relação de substituição com os outros bens à medida que a renda se eleva. O segundo artigo (terceiro capítulo) trata da investigação dos condicionantes das exportações brasileiras de arroz por meio de VAR estrutural baseado em um modelo econômico de excesso de oferta, no período pós 2009. Os resultados das relações contemporâneas mostram considerável efeito negativo do crescimento interno (PIB) sobre as exportações. A taxa de câmbio real efetiva apresentou forte impacto imediato positivo sobre as exportações. O preço de exportação também teve efeito positivo, e pouco maior do que um, sobre a quantidade exportada. O preço ao produtor apresentou impacto imediato positivo sobre as vendas externas. A função impulso-resposta confirma o papel do consumo interno (PIB) como concorrente das vendas externas ao longo do tempo. Por outro lado, o efeito acumulado de um choque não antecipado de 1% na taxa de câmbio efetiva real muda de trajetória e se torna negativo a partir do terceiro período, o que pode ser reflexo do encarecimento das importações de arroz - componente ainda importante no abastecimento interno. No caso do preço das exportações, o efeito positivo se dissipa a partir do terceiro período. Por último, o preço ao produtor mantém, no acumulado, impacto positivo sobre as exportações. No geral, o modelo de excesso de oferta se mostrou adequado, mas a grande importância das importações e dos estoques nesse mercado parece afetar os resultados e merece ser melhor investigada. / This work is organized in two papers that deal with some topics that are little explored in the Brazilian rice growth literature. Specifically, it aims to investigate aspects related to the demand for rice in the domestic market and its external insertion. For that, after a general introduction, we present an article on household demand for food, with emphasis on rice consumption and a second paper investigating the rice export supply. The first article, in the second chapter, presents estimates of the Brazilian household food demand through a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) adjusted for censored consumption and endogeneity of total expenditures. Microdata from Household Budget Survey (POF) 2008-2009 with products selected due to the expected relationship of complementarity and/or substitutability with rice. The results indicate an inelastic behavior of rice demand in relation to income and food expenditure at home. It is observed that the Center-West, Southeast and Northeast regions show greater sensitivity of demand to increases in income (expenditure). The price elasticity of demand indicated that the variation in rice\'s price affects more than proportionally its demand. The cross-price elasticities point to bread and manioc flour as important substitutes for rice and beans as a complement in household demand. The results for ten strata of family per capita income indicate higher sensitivity of lower income families to changes in cereal prices and an increase in the substitution ratio with other goods as income rises. The second article, in the third chapter, deal with investigation of the determinants of Brazilian rice exportations through structural VAR based on a model of excess supply in the post-2009 period. The results of contemporary relations show a considerable negative effect of GDP growth on exports. The effective real exchange rate had a strong immediate positive impact on exports. The export price also had a positive and elastic effect on the quantity exported. The producer price had an immediate positive impact on foreign sales. The impulse-response function confirms the role of domestic consumption (GDP) as a competitor to external sales, over time. On the other hand, the effect of an unanticipated shock on the real exchange rate changes trajectory and becomes negative from the third period, which may be a reflection that rice\'s imports are more expensive- imports still are important component in domestic supply. In the case of export prices, the positive effect dissipates from the third period. Finally, the producer price keeps an accumulated positive impact on exportations. In general, the excess supply model is adequate, but the high importance of imports and stocks in this market seems to affect the results and deserve further investigation.

Este trabalho investiga para o Brasil um dos mais importantes debates da literatura da Nova Macroeconomia Aberta: a escolha da moeda na qual a firma exportadora fixará os preços de seu produto vendido no exterior. Duas são as hipóteses possíveis: ou a firma exportadora fixa seu preço com base na sua própria moeda, conhecida como producer currency pricing (PCP),ou ela fixa seu preço com base na moeda do mercado de destino de seu produto, chamada de local currency pricing (LCP). Como muitos dos problemas verificados na literatura macroeconômica têm origem microeconômica, procuramos responder a questão através das observações encontradas na literatura de passthrough e pricing-to-market. Além disto, assumimos que, no agregado, os setores exportadores e importadores brasileiros se comportam como uma firma maximizadora de lucros que vende seus produtos para importadores locais. Isto permite que parte das variações cambiais seja repassada para os preços e parte seja absorvida pelo markup do setor. A metodologia empírica incluiu a estimação de dois VEC’s (vector error correction), um para as exportações e outro para as importações, pelos quais foram calculadas funções de resposta ao impulso e decomposições da variância dos erros de previsão nos preços. Os resultados obtidos indicam casos intermediários das hipóteses de LCP e PCP para o Brasil. Enquanto os preços em dólares das exportações brasileiras estão mais próximos da hipótese de LCP, os preços em reais das importações estão mais próximos da hipótese de PCP. Outros aspectos interessantes também foram observados. Para os preços das exportações brasileiras, a variável mais importante para sua determinação é a condição econômica do resto do mundo, seguida pelos custos do setor exportador. Já para as importações, tanto as condições econômicas domésticas quanto a taxa de câmbio são variáveis importantes, ao passo que os preços em moeda estrangeira das importações não se mostraram significantes no longo prazo, mas apenas no curto prazo. / This work analyzes to Brazil one of the most important debates on the New Open Economy Macroeconomic literature: the choice of the currency in which international prices are fixed. There are two possible hypotheses: either the export firm establishes his prices in your own currency, named producer currency pricing (PCP) or the export firm fix his price in the currency of the market in which his products is sold, named local currency pricing (LCP). Many questions treated in macroeconomic literature have microeconomic foundations. So we look for answering the question using the literature of passthrough and pricing-to-market. In addition to this, we assume that macroeconomic data for Brazilian’s export and import sectors are generated of profit maximizing firms’ behavior. The firms sell their products to local importers, allowing that some piece of exchange rate variations are passed through prices and another piece are passed through specific markup sector. Methodology employed here includes vector error correction (VEC) estimation, one for export prices in dollar and other for import prices in reais, through which were calculated impulse response functions and forecast variance error decompositions for prices. Results point the validity of intermediate cases of LCP and PCP for Brazil. While Brazilian export prices in dollars are closer to LCP hypothesis, Brazilian import prices in reais are closer to PCP hypothesis. Other interesting aspects were obtained. For Brazilian export prices, the most important variable explaining it is the world economic growth. The second most important variable is the export sector cost. For Brazilian import prices in reais, both domestic economic growth and exchange rate are important in its determination, while import prices in dollars were not showed significant in the long run, but just in the short run.