The focus of this thesis is to better explore and understand the effects of agent interactions, information feedback, and adaptive learning in a repeated game of bidding in farmland auction markets. This thesis will develop a multi-agent model of farm-land auction markets based on data from the Saskatchewan Dark Brown Soil Zone of the Canadian Prairies. Several auction types will be modeled and data will be gathered on land transactions between farm agents to ascertain which auction type (if any) is best suited for farmland markets. Specifically, the model gathers information for 3 types of sealed-bid auctions, and 1 English auction and compares them on the basis of efficiency, price information revelation, stability, and with respect to repeated bidding and agent learning. The effects of auction choice on macro-level indicators, such as farm exits, retirement, financial stability, average productivity, farm size, and participation were unknown at the outset of this thesis because of the complex dynamic nature of the environment. I find that the chosen learning mechanism employed here affects both price and variance of prices in all auctions. I also find that the second-price-sealed-bid auction generates the most perceived surplus, most equitable share of surplus, and also decreases uncertainty in the common-value element of prices. A priori it was believed that auction choice would have an impact on pricing efficiency, price levels, and shares of surplus generated from auctions as predicted by theoretical works. Surprisingly, auction choice does not influence market structure or evolution.

The focus of this thesis is to better explore and understand the effects of agent interactions, information feedback, and adaptive learning in a repeated game of bidding in farmland auction markets. This thesis will develop a multi-agent model of farm-land auction markets based on data from the Saskatchewan Dark Brown Soil Zone of the Canadian Prairies. Several auction types will be modeled and data will be gathered on land transactions between farm agents to ascertain which auction type (if any) is best suited for farmland markets. Specifically, the model gathers information for 3 types of sealed-bid auctions, and 1 English auction and compares them on the basis of efficiency, price information revelation, stability, and with respect to repeated bidding and agent learning. The effects of auction choice on macro-level indicators, such as farm exits, retirement, financial stability, average productivity, farm size, and participation were unknown at the outset of this thesis because of the complex dynamic nature of the environment. I find that the chosen learning mechanism employed here affects both price and variance of prices in all auctions. I also find that the second-price-sealed-bid auction generates the most perceived surplus, most equitable share of surplus, and also decreases uncertainty in the common-value element of prices. A priori it was believed that auction choice would have an impact on pricing efficiency, price levels, and shares of surplus generated from auctions as predicted by theoretical works. Surprisingly, auction choice does not influence market structure or evolution.

No description available.

No description available.

As intelligent investors, we should always consider holding assets of different classes. Investing in assets from various classes allows us to minimize portfolio risks. In this paper, we recommend a better way of devoting money, especially for the investors who are interested in the agricultural sector. Historically fund managers use Markowitz framework to create financial portfolios. However, that framework has some fundamental limitations. A copula is a modern approach that counters the disadvantages of the Markowitz framework, to deal with portfolio construction. Copula also identifies the downside risk (the maximum amount of money you can lose) of a portfolio. We found that farmland is the best asset to have in an agricultural portfolio. However, farmland is scarce. So, we introduce copula, which can be used to find alternative assets. We also found that the portfolio composition does not change during agricultural boom or bust. Currently, the US agricultural sector is going through a slump period. Funds invested in a portfolio during the good seasons (given it was correctly invested) should not be altered during the bad times.

<p> The growth rate of the value of farmland is important to the agricultural sector. Real estate  comprises 83% of farm sector assets, as well as 68% of farm sector debt (USDA, 2021). Farm real  estate plays a large role in both sides of the accounting equation and land values – especially  expected future land values – play a significant role in lending decisions. Evaluating these future  land value expectations is the topic of this study. In the US, several organizations use surveys to  elicit farmland experts’ expectations of farmland value. These expectations are presented in the  aggregate, obscuring the potential underlying heterogeneity in the expectation formation process.  Kuethe and Hubbs (2017) found agricultural lenders’ expectations are unbiased yet inefficient, and  recently, Kuethe and Oppedahl (2020) found agricultural lenders’ expectations are conservatively  biased. This study uses an expectation evaluation methodology from Davies and Lahiri (1995) and  a newly-created panel of Indiana farmland experts from the Purdue Land Value and Cash Rent  Survey from 2003-2022 to model heterogeneity in farmland value expectations. We find evidence  of survey-wide under-prediction by farmland experts, consistent with Kuethe and Oppedahl (2020).  In addition, we compare the future price expectations of lenders and appraisers, which may  introduce friction in forming lending relationships. In addition, a key contribution of this study is  the creation of a true panel dataset from past Purdue Land Value and Cash Rent Survey responses.  The novel dataset may allow for future research to explore questions not previously possible, in  absence of a true panel dataset. </p>

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)

Agricultural environments are critical to the conservation of biota throughout the world. This is due both to the limited extent of current reserve systems and the large, and still expanding, proportion of terrestrial environments already dominated by agricultural land-uses. Consequently, there is a growing call from scientists around the world for the need to maximise the conservation value of agricultural environments. Efforts to identify key influences on the conservation status of fauna in agricultural landscapes have taken complementary approaches. Many studies have focussed on the role of remnant or semi-natural vegetation, and emphasised the influence on biota of spatial patterns in the landscape. Others have recognised that many species use diverse ‘countryside’ elements (matrix habitats) within farmland, and emphasise the benefits of landscape heterogeneity for conservation. Here, these research themes have been combined. This study takes a whole-of-landscape approach to investigating how landscape pattern and countryside heterogeneity influence the occurrence of birds in agricultural environments. Birds were sampled in 27 agricultural mosaics, each 1 km x 1 km in size (100 ha), in Gippsland, south-eastern Australia. Mosaics were selected to incorporate variation in two landscape properties: the cover of native vegetation, and richness of different types of element (i.e. land-uses/vegetation types). In each mosaic, 15 fixed sampling locations were stratified among seven different elements in proportion to their cover in the mosaic: native vegetation, linear vegetation, tree plantation, scattered paddock trees, pasture, wetlands and farm dams. Six point counts of birds were undertaken at all sample points in each mosaic: three each in the breeding and non-breeding months of a one-year period (October 2004 – August 2005). Independent measures of the composition, configuration, and heterogeneity of elements in the mosaic had differing effects on the richness of bird species recorded in these same mosaics. Sub-groups of birds based on habitat requirements responded most strongly to the extent of preferred element types in mosaics. Woodland birds (those of greatest conservation concern in farmland environments in Australia) were richer in mosaics with higher cover of native vegetation while open-tolerant species responded to the extent of scattered trees. In contrast, for total species richness, mosaic heterogeneity (richness of element types) and landscape context (cover of native vegetation in surrounding area) had the greatest influence. Mosaic structural properties also influenced the composition of entire bird assemblages in study mosaics. Avifaunal composition showed systematic variation along two main gradients which were readily interpreted in relation to landscape properties: 1) a gradient in the cover of wooded vegetation and, 2) the proportional composition of vegetation types in the mosaic. These gradients represent common trajectories of landscape modification associated with agricultural development: namely, the removal of wooded vegetation and the replacement of native species with exotic vegetation (e.g. crops and plantations). Species possessing different characteristics in relation to three avian life-history traits (nest type, feeding guild and clutch size) varied significantly in their position along these gradients of landscape modification. Species with different nesting requirements showed a strong relationship with the gradient in wooded vegetation cover while species belonging to different feeding guilds were influenced by the gradient defined by the replacement of native vegetation with exotic species. More bird species were recorded in native vegetation than in any other type of element sampled in this study. Nevertheless, most countryside elements had value for many species; particularly structurally complex elements such as scattered trees and tree plantation. Further, each type of landscape element contained different bird assemblages. Species that were recorded in a greater number of different types of landscape element were also recorded in more mosaics. This was true for all species and for woodland birds, and indicates that species that can use a greater range of countryside elements may have an increased tolerance of future landscape modification. The richness of woodland species at survey sites in different elements was influenced by features of the mosaic in which they occurred. Notably, the richness of woodland bird species recorded at sites in scattered trees and pasture increased with a greater cover of native vegetation in the overall mosaic. Of the overall pool of woodland bird species documented in the broader study region, 35% of species were not recorded in the agricultural mosaics sampled here. While many of these species were uncommon in the study area, or were associated with vegetation communities infrequently sampled in mosaics, this shows that conservation efforts in agricultural landscapes will not be appropriate for all species. For those woodland species that were recorded, measures of the extent of wooded vegetation cover had a strong, positive influence on the frequency of occurrence of individual species in mosaics. Thus, individual species of woodland bird occurred more frequently in mosaics with a greater cover of wooded vegetation. Nine woodland species showed a stronger response to measures of vegetation cover that included tree plantation and/or scattered trees than to the cover of native vegetation alone. For these species, structurally complex countryside elements provide valuable supplementary habitat at the landscape scale. Results of this study show that landscape properties influence the occurrence of birds in agricultural mosaics. The extent of cover of element types, particularly native vegetation, had the strongest influence on all measures of bird occurrence in mosaics. Thus, native vegetation is vital for the persistence of birds in farmland landscapes and is the primary element on which conservation efforts in these environments depend. Nevertheless, with careful management, countryside elements may provide additional conservation benefits for many bird species. Countryside elements made an important contribution to landscape heterogeneity, the landscape property with greatest influence on overall bird richness in mosaics. Countryside elements also increased the structural complexity of cleared agricultural land, and so have the capacity to enhance connectivity in fragmented landscapes. A focus on these factors (landscape heterogeneity and structural complexity) will provide the greatest opportunities for using countryside elements to increase the conservation value of farmland environments for native fauna. The relatively small scale of this study indicates that the cumulative effect of even small elements in farm mosaics contributes to the structural properties of entire landscapes. Critically, this emphasises the important contribution that individual landholders can make to nature conservation in agricultural environments.

我政府為配合「振興經濟方案」的推動，刻正積極規劃釋出大量農地，以供工業、商業、住宅、公共設施等非農業部門使用。然農地乃一珍貴之自然資源，注重整體生產環境之維護，任何之變更轉用皆應謹慎衡量。本研究即以此為中心理念，分析目前我國農地釋出之決策程序是否合理及所面臨之問題，並以德國之經驗及相關機關訪談結果，綜合研擬改進方向與配合措施。茲扼要說明其內容如下： 　　第壹章、緒論。首先揭櫫本研究之動機與目的所在；其次陳述研究內容與方法；再界定本研究之範圍與限制，解釋農地釋出與決策程序所指為何，並繪製研究流程圖，以明瞭研究之理念與程序。 　　第貳章、理論基礎與文獻回顧。本研究以公共政策研究領域常見之理性決策理念與模型為理論基礎。並檢討回顧有關文獻，以指引本研究之研究方向。 　　第參章、我國農地釋出相關問題之探討。本研究之重點在於理性決策模型所設定之決策程序中，關於決策所需資料之建立及相關對策之擬定等是否理性客觀。藉由農地變更之概況及相關法規、政策等之檢討，發現農地變更或釋出時，乃以經濟及建設為主導，往往忽略農地非經濟層面之功能。 　　第肆章、中德農地釋出決策程序之比較分析。以上述為基礎，選取包括農地之功能定位、農地釋出之規劃機關與效果、農地釋出之法源依據、農地釋出參與過程等課題，作為中德比較之課題。發現德國視農地為一珍貴自然資源之定位、賦予地方規劃自主權、國土綜合開發法之明確規範、農業結構規劃資料之提供、決策過程兼顧各方意見（制衡原則）..等優點，實值得參酌。 　　第伍章、我國農地釋出決策程序改進方向之研擬。在建立決策所需資料方面，需調整農地之功能定位、建立整體農業現況調查及農業相關規劃之完整資訊..等；在擬定相關對策方面，應在國土綜合開發計畫法（草案）上訂定各種土地使用之基本原則..等。 　　第陸章、結論與建議。綜合各章節之探討，提出精簡之研究結論與建議事項。 / In order to evolve the economic growth the Government in Taiwan perform " Program of Economic Restoration" by releasing a remarkable amount of argricultural land to non-argricultural use to solve problems of high land price and land acquisition for private sector. But argricultural land means a very valu-able natural resource. It needs to be evaluated carefully when making a decision to convert argricultural land to non-argricultural use. This study intend to analyze the rationality and problems within the procedure of decision-making for "farml and release" in Taiwan and Germany, and propose policy recommenda-tion. This include the following contents: 　　Chapter1 lntroduction: To explain what are "farmland release" and "procedure of decision-making", and the restriction of this study. 　　Chapter2 Theoretical Basis and Literature Review : This study apply "Rational Decision Model" to the analysis of procedure of decision-making. 　　Chapter3 Problems on Farmland Release in Taiwan : Economic growth and development are emphasized in land-use. This cause the ignorance of the functions of argriculture land,especially the contribution on non-economic level. 　　Chapter4 A Comparative Analysis on The Procedure of Decision-Making for Farmland Releas in Taiwan and Germany : All persons or groups concerned play an active role in the procedure (top-down bottom-up procedure) in Germany..and so on. 　　Chapter5 The Recommendation on The Procedure of Decision-Making for Farmland Releas in Taiwan : The non-economic func-tions of farmland need to be emphasized in " Territorial Deve-lopment Planning Law" (draft)..and so on. 　　Chapter6 Conclusion: Making a comprehensive comment accord-ing to the contents above.

In order to cope with an agricultural economic structure and the development of industrial and commercial use land, the government conducted significant amendment to the Statute for Agricultural Development, adjusting the original ¡§farmland owned by farmers¡¨ and ¡§farmland for agricultural use¡¨ to ¡§releasing farmland owned by farmers¡¨ and ¡§farm building on farmland.¡¨ In addition to loosening the qualifications for the acquisition of farmland, the government also allows for the construction of cluster farm buildings or individual farmhouses. The goal of the policy of cluster farm buildings is established upon the foundation of ¡§production, life, and ecology.¡¨ Regarding production, farmland is not allowed to be segmented, which is beneficial to the promotion of agricultural machinery and rewarding in the expansion of the scale of farmland operation. Regarding everyday life, the construction of well-planned public facilities is able to promote living environment and quality. Regarding ecology, the well-planned management of sewage processing can reduce environmental contamination, protecting the environment. Regarding landscape, the building of farmhouses in a cluster is able to make landscape harmonious. Regarding public investment, the concentration of government funds on a certain area is able to enhance the efficiency of public investment. Although the policy of farm building cluster is made with positive intensions, it is unable to compromise with the current situations of rural areas, rendering problems that affect the growth of rural areas. In fact, these problems have arisen because of the inadequacy of laws and regulations related to rural areas. Therefore, this research examines whether the policy of the construction of farm building cluster can accomplish the three major goals of the sustaining development of rural area and solve the problems of the current problems farm building clusters are facing now and possible solutions. The research employs literature review, secondary source analysis, and on-site investigation as methods. Interviews with various personnel related to the construction of farm buildings, such as administrative, reviewers, scholars, contractor, local farmers, and residents in farm building cluster are conducted with the help of the government. Integrating viewpoints and suggestions from the business, government, and academia, it provides references for the government to promote the amendment of laws and policies related to the construction of farm building cluster in the future. This research discovers that the construction of farm building clusters cannot accomplish its three original goals of ¡§protecting the integrity of farmland, avoiding the loss of excellent farmland, and promoting effective use of farmland¡¨, ¡§enhancing public construction to promote rural area¡¦s additive values, farmers¡¦ living quality, and harmony for the community¡¨, and ¡§avoiding farm buildings in clusters that contaminate farmland, protect ecological environment, and promote harmony in the community.¡¨ In the aspect of production, it suggests the government to 1. Limit the distance between farm buildings and farmland; 2. Prohibit using ¡§forests¡¨ and ¡§reserve areas on slopes¡¨ as farmland; 3. Delimit suitable areas for the construction of farm buildings; 4. Assist utilization of farmland to create production values. In the aspect of everyday life, it suggests 1. Delimit the standard of minimum area for the construction public facilities. In the aspect of ecology, it suggests 1. Build green belts between farm buildings and farmlands; 2. Delimit the standard of sewage discharge testing; 3. Provide funds to assist building ¡§green¡¨ farm buildings; 4. Refurbish old rural areas to make their appearance harmonious with farm building clusters. In the aspect of policy, it suggests 1. Established supervising and monitoring management system; 2. Prohibit the acquisition of farmland for the construction of farm buildings for 2 years to avoid farmland speculation; 3. Publicize laws and policies related to the construction of farm building cluster; 4. Simplify the application procedure of cluster construction; 5. Limit the number of the application of building individual farmhouses; 6. Establish service platform to assist farmers to plan and apply for the construction of farm building clusters by providing instant transparent information.