• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 131
  • 106
  • 29
  • 25
  • 23
  • 13
  • 8
  • 8
  • 5
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • Tagged with
  • 409
  • 122
  • 109
  • 97
  • 76
  • 74
  • 69
  • 53
  • 50
  • 49
  • 42
  • 37
  • 35
  • 33
  • 32
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
161

A Market Analysis for Specialty Beef in Virginia

Waddle, Ashleigh Danielle 02 June 2009 (has links)
Virginia beef producers have been overwhelmed with increasing costs and decreasing profits as well as facing challenges such as development pressures, drought, increasing competition for grazing land. Together these have reduced opportunities for expansion and often increased incentives for farmers to sell land for non-agriculture use. Nevertheless, opportunities exist for the Virginia beef market. Consumer demand is changing and consumers are seeking food from alternative production systems based on attributes related to human health, environment, animal welfare, and other social concerns. Consumers are also interested in increasing their consumption of locally produced foods. Specialty beef such as natural, organic, and pasture-fed addresses the changing consumer demand and provides alternatives to commodity beef production. This thesis analyzes the potential for and the constraints to specialty beef producers in Virginia to sell their beef through alternative market outlets such as large retail outlets, specialty stores, restaurants, or direct to consumers. The study will research the potential demand for specialty beef through alternative market outlets, the market entry requirements to supply specialty beef to these alternative outlets, and the potential for Virginia's specialty beef producers to serve as suppliers to these alternative outlets. A survey is used to evaluate these alternative markets and determine if they present an opportunity for Virginia producers of specialty beef. The results of this study will evaluate the viability of selling and buying between producer and retailer and offer valuable information and recommendations to Virginia specialty beef producers about the potential and requirements in each of these markets. / Master of Science
162

Optimisation du rendement de production de bioéthanol chez Saccharomyces cerevisiae par minimisation de la synthèse du glycérol : approche intégrée de génie métabolique et microbiologique / Improvement of Saccharomyces cerevisiae bioethanol yield through minimization of glycerol yield : microbiologic and Metabolic engineering integrative approach

Pagliardini, Julien 09 July 2010 (has links)
Ces travaux visaient à étudier la possibilité de réduire la production de glycérol chezSaccharomyces cerevisiae, afin d’améliorer le rendement éthanol, tout en préservant les capacités decroissance et de production des levures. La production minimale de glycérol nécessaire à la croissancea été déterminée à l'aide d'un modèle de calcul des flux métaboliques. Des souches présentant uneactivité des enzymes de la voie de production du glycérol modulée, afin de s'approcher au plus près del'activité minimale nécessaire estimée in silico, ont été utilisées.Cette stratégie d’ajustement de l’activité de la voie de synthèse du glycérol a permis, encondition aérobie, de réduire de 88 % le rendement glycérol et d'améliorer le rendement éthanol de4,7 % sans modifier la tolérance des mutants à l'éthanol, mais au détriment de la vitesse spécifique decroissance, légèrement réduite. En condition anaérobie, une diminution de 61 % du rendementglycérol et une amélioration de 7 % du rendement éthanol ont pu être obtenues, mais au détriment dela vitesse spécifique de croissance,qui subit une sévère diminution, et de la tolérance à l'éthanol,qui estréduite.L'analyse fine des résultats, grâce à un modèle métabolique, a permis de mettre en évidence,chez les souches mutantes, un besoin accru en énergie, interprété comme la traduction d'une plusgrande difficulté à gérer le stress du procédé et une réorganisation du métabolisme oxydo-réductif,interprétée comme l'impact de la réduction du glycérol sur les voies de réoxydation du cofacteurNADH dans les cellules.Ces résultats ont permis de valider la pertinence de la stratégie de réajustement des fluxmétaboliques, assistée par modélisation stoechiométrique pour l'amélioration des souches, mais aussid'accroître la compréhension du rôle physiologique du glycérol et son intégration au métabolismecellulaire. / This work aimed to assess the possibility of reducing Saccharomyces cerevisiae's glycerolproduction, in order to improve ethanol yield, without altering the abilities of yeasts to grow andproduce ethanol. Minimum glycerol production required for growth was found, thanks to a metabolicflux calculation model. Strains showing a fine tuned activity in the glycerol synthesis pathway enzymeswere used, to get close to the minimum activity established in silico.This fine tuning strategy lead, in aerobiosis, to a 88 % glycerol yield decrease together with a4.7 % ethanol yield increase, with no reduction of mutants'ethanol tolerance, but there is a slightdecrease of the growth rate. In anaerobiosis, a 61 % glycerol yield decrease, together with a 7 %ethanol yield increase were obtained, but mutant strains suffered of a sharp growth rate reduction anda decrease in their ethanol tolerance.A close analysis of the results, with the help of a metabolic model, highlighted both an increaseof mutants' energy requirements, interpreted as an increased difficulty to cope with osmotic stress,and a reorganisation of their oxydo-reductive metabolism, interpreted as glycerol reduction's impacton the NADH cofactor reoxydation pathway.These results validated the relevance of metabolic fine-tuning, assisted with in silicostoichiometric model for strains improvement and they increased the understanding of the integrationof glycerol in cell metabolism as well as its physiological role.
163

Etude de milieux de culture complexes et évolutifs par développement de mesures physiques en ligne / Study of complex and evolving culture media by development of on-line physical measurements

Manon, Yannick 08 February 2012 (has links)
Durant les cultures cellulaires en bioréacteur, la physiologie des micro-organismes et les paramètres physico-chimiques (alimentations en gaz et en substrat, agitation, température, pH, pression) interagissent très fortement. La spécificité des bioréactions microbiennes, en relation avec les couplages irréductibles entre les transferts de chaleur, de matière et de quantité de mouvement, réside dans la complexité (milieu triphasique) et la dynamique (bioréaction autocatalysé) de ces systèmes. L’objectif de ce travail est de progresser dans la compréhension et le contrôle dynamique des intéractions entre les aspects biologiques et les aspects physiques à différentes échelles (macro, micro et moléculaire) pour conduire la réaction biologique vers l’objectif défini (production de biomasse, de métabolites intra ou extra cellulaires, …) et l’optimiser. Les cellules (concentration, forme, dimension, physiologie, …) affectent fortement les propriétés physico-chimiques des moûts et par conséquent, les performances des bioprocédés (vitesses spécifiques, rendements, productivité). Le comportement rhéologique particulier du moût est souvent utilisé pour comprendre l’impact de la biomasse microbienne sur le rendement et les performances du bioprocédé.Dans ce travail, des cultures axéniques, définies comme des cultures pures de microorganismes unicellulaires procaryote et eucaryote, sont considérées. Notre approche s’appuie sur des mesures physiques et physico-chimiques en ligne et hors ligne réalisées sur un bioréacteur instrumenté, mesures qui sont mises en place de façon à respecter les conditions imposées par les contraintes biologiques propres aux microorganismes et à la stratégie de culture choisie. Des cultures d’Escherichia coli et d’Yarrowia. lipolytica, à taux de croissance controlé par l’apport de substrat, ont été réalisées dans une gamme de concentration allant de 0.1 à 100 g l-1. Le bilan qui peut être dressé pour ce travail, tant sur les aspects scientifiques que technologiques, est le suivant :- conception et réalisation d’un outil d’investigation original construit sur la base d’un bioréacteur (20 l) et pourvu d’une boucle de recirculation instrumentée pour la mesure,- identification hydrodynamique (courbes de frottement) de conduites calibrées permettant la viscosimétrie en ligne durant une culture cellulaire, - conception, développement et validation d’un code, LoCoPREL, permettant simultanément le contrôle de la culture cellulaire suivant une stratégie définie, la gestion de séquences de débit dans la boucle de dérivation et l’acquisition des données issues de l’instrumentation spécifique employée,- comparaison des mesures réalisées en ligne à débit constant ou selon des séquences de débit,- mise en évidence du comportement non newtonien des moûts et d’écarts entre les mesures en ligne et hors ligne,- analyse des mesures physiques réalisées en ligne et hors ligne, en lien avec les performances de la culture / During cell cultures in bioreactors, micro-organism physiology closely interacts with physico-chemical parameters such as gas and feed flowrates, mixing, temperature, pH, pressure. The specificity of microbial bioreactions in relation with irreductible couplings between heat and mass transfers and fluid mechanics, led into complex (three-phase medium) and dynamic (auto-biocatalytics reaction) systems. Our scientific approach aims to investigate, understand and control dynamic interactions between physical and biological systems at different scales (macro, micro and molecular) for molecules, strains and/or bioprocess innovation. Cells (concentration, shape, dimension, physiology…) strongly affect physico-chemical properties of broth. Then the modification of these characteristics interacts with bioprocess performances (specific rates, yields…) with an improvement or, more frequently, a decrease of yields. Among these properties, rheological behaviour is a strategy widely used to understand the impact of cells and the derivation of bioprocess performances.In this manuscript, axenic cultures, defined as cultures of a pure and unicellular Prokaryote and Eukaryote microorganisms in bioreactors, are considered. Our approach is based on physical and physico-chemical on-line and off-line measurements in respect with accurate and stringent conditions imposed by cell culture strategy. Escherichia coli and Yarrowia lipolytica cultures were investigated with a control of growth rate by carbon feed in the range from 0.1 up to 100 g l-1. Our scientific and technical actions and results led:- to design and realize an original pilot based on a bioreactor (20 l) with a derivation loop including a specific on-line rheometric device as well as additional physical and biological measurements,- to identify, from a hydrodynamic standpoint, the generalized friction curves of calibrated ducts enabling on-line viscosimetry during cell cultures,- to conceive and validate a homemade software, named LoCoPREL, enabling simultaneously to control cell cultures under defined strategy and to manage flow sequences within the derivation loop,- to discuss and compare on-line physical measurements under constant flow rate and various sequence strategy related to investigated shear-rates,- to highlight about the non-newtonian rheological behaviour of broths and the gap between on-line and off-line measurements,- to analyse on-line and off-line physical measurements in the light of biological performances during fed-batch cultures (mass balance, specific rate, yield).
164

Modeling and Analysis of Grid Connected Variable Speed Wind Generators

Seshadri Sravan Kumar, V January 2015 (has links) (PDF)
The growing demand for power and increased environmental concerns gave an impetus to the growth of clean and renewable energy sources like wind, solar etc. There is a remarkable increase in the penetration of wind energy systems in the last decade and this trend is bound to increase at a much faster pace in future. This ever increasing penetration of wind power generating systems pose multi-fold challenges related to operational and stability aspects of the grid. Present day wind energy systems mostly comprise of variable speed wind generators. A large fraction of present day variable speed wind turbine generators use doubly fed induction machine (DFIM). This thesis deals with modeling and grid coordination aspects of variable speed wind gener- ators. In particular, the short coming of the existing steady state equivalent circuit of a DFIM is identified and subsequently, an accurate equivalent circuit of a DFIM is proposed. Relevant mathematical basis for the proposed model is presented. The proposed steady state equivalent circuit of a doubly fed induction machine is further validated using dynamic simulations of a standalone machine. Based on the proposed equivalent circuit, two approaches for computing the initial values of state variables of a DFIM is proposed. The first approach is a linear formulation where the losses due to resistance of the stator and rotor windings are neglected. The second approach is a non-linear formulation which takes the losses into consideration. Further, analysis is carried out on grid connected doubly fed induction generators (DFIG). A framework to incorporate DFIG based variable speed wind farms in the steady state power flow analysis is proposed. The proposed framework takes into consideration important aspects such as voltage dependent reactive power limits and mode of reactive power control of associated converters. Some of the challenges in a grid connected DFIG especially during su- persynchronous mode of operation are identified. The advantages of a non-Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) mode of operation under certain operating conditions is highlighted. Finally, aspects pertaining to coordination of grid connected variable speed wind generators are studied. A trust region framework to determine the reference values to the control loops of converters in a variable speed wind generator is proposed. The proposed framework identifies the reference values considering other reactive power controllers in the grid. Moreover, the proposed framework ensures that the steady state voltage stability margin is maximized. On the computational front, trust region algorithms ensure global convergence. The mathematical models and initialization algorithms proposed in this thesis are tested on standalone systems under various control scenarios. The algorithms proposed to incorporate a grid connected DFIG in steady state analysis tools have been tested on a sample 6-bus system and a practical 418-bus equivalent system of Indian southern grid.
165

Croissance et accumulation lipidique de Rhodotorula glutinis (rhodosporidium toruloides) sur glucose, xylose et glycérol : vers la valorisation des coproduits agricoles et industriels pour la production de lipides à usages énergétiques / Growth and lipid accumulation of the yeast Rhodotorula glutinis (Rhodosporidium toruloides) from glucose, xylose and glycerol : owards agricultural and industrial byproduct utilization for lipid production for energy use

Babau, Maud 15 July 2015 (has links)
Rhodotorula glutinis (Rhodosporidium toruloides) est une levure oléagineuse dont les fortes capacités d’accumulation lipidique à partir de glucose comme source carbonée ont fait de la souche un modèle d’étude. La capacité de cette levure à utiliser le glycérol ou le xylose en simple ou co-substrat avec le glucose est toutefois encore peu explorée. De l’analyse des travaux antérieurs il a été possible de dégager les verrous scientifiques qui nécessitent une amélioration des connaissances du comportement physiologique de cette levure pour la conversion des substrats cités. Des stratégies expérimentales adaptées à la quantification rationnelle des dynamiques de Rhodotorula glutinis en conditions de croissance et accumulation lipidique à partir de xylose et de glycérol en simple ou co-substrats avec le glucose ont été développées. Des résultats originaux ont été obtenus dont :- la mise en évidence des potentialités de co-consommation des substrats xylose et glucose ou glycérol et glucose sans accumulation de substrat ni production de métabolites en conditions contrôlées des flux de substrats. Il a été possible de déterminer la vitesse spécifique maximale de consommation du carbone de la souche qui diminue lorsque la part de xylose ou glycérol augmente dans l’apport de carbone total.- la quantification de la dynamique de croissance sur xylose et glycérol pur en terme de taux de croissance et de rendement : sur xylose µmax= 0.034h-1 et RS/X= 0.28 Cmolx.Cmolxylose-1; sur glycérol µmax=0.04h-1 RS/X=0.31Cmolx.Cmolglycérol-1.- la quantification des vitesses spécifiques et rendements de production de lipides à partir de xylose ou de glycérol en simple ou co-substrat avec du glucose : 20%xylose-80%glucose : qp=0.065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.3CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1 100%xylose : qp=0.035065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.31CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1, 25% glycérol-75%glucose : qp=0.07065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.25CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1 , 100% glycérol : qp=0.03065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P= 0.29CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1.- L’impact de la nature des substrats sur le profil lipidique de Rhodotorula glutinis demeure léger : il apparait que le xylose entraîne une surproduction de C16:0 et C18:3et le glycérol favorise l’accumulation de C18:0 / Rhodotorula glutinis (Rhodosporidium toruloides) is an oleaginous yeast. The micro-organism has demonstrated high lipid accumulation when utilizing glucose as a substrate, and has become a model for oil production. Glycerol and xylose are interesting as substrates for production of oil from renewable resources, but the capacity of R. glutinis to utilize glycerol and xylose as substrates has not been characterized well. Fermentation strategies were designed to quantify growth and lipid accumulation dynamics of R. glutinis when utilizing glycerol and xylose - either as pure substrates, or as co-substrates with glucose. Several original results have been found, including: - Co-consumption of xylose or glycerol along with glucose was observed, without carbon substrate accumulation or byproduct formation, when the carbon feed rate was carefully controlled. The specific carbon consumption rate decreases when the proportion of the second substrate (glycerol or xylose) increases in the feed, relative to glucose. - Growth capacities were characterized on pure xylose and pure glycerol in terms of growth rate and carbon yields: on xylose μmax= 0.034h-1 and RS/X= 0.28 Cmolx.Cmolxylose-1; on glycerol μmax=0.04h-1 RS/X=0.31Cmolx.Cmolglycerol-1. - specific production rate of lipid production and substrate to product carbon conversion yields from xylose or glycerol as single or cosubstrate with glucose were determinated: 20%xylose-80%glucose : qp=0.065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.3CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1 100%xylose : qp=0.035065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.31CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1, 25% glycerol-75%glucose : qp=0.07065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P=0.25CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1 , 100% glycerol : qp=0.03065CmolTAG.Cmolbiomasse.h-1, RS/P= 0.29CmoleTAG.Cmolesubstrat-1. - Substrate diversification slightly impacts Rhodotorula glutinis´s lipid profile: xylose leads to an overproduction of C16:0 and C18:3 and glycerol increases C18:0 accumulation
166

Biologie systémique et intégrative pour l'amélioration de l'accumulation et de la sélectivité des acides gras accumulés dans les espèces levuriennes. / Improvement of accumulation and selectivity of yeast fatty acids with an integrated and systemic biology approach

Portelli, Berangere 08 November 2011 (has links)
L’accumulation de lipides chez une espèce levurienne Yarrowia lipolytica souche sauvage a été caractérisée par l’analyse dynamique et systémique des différents états métaboliques identifiés lors des cultures sous conditions environnementales parfaitement maitrisées, à hautes densités cellulaires selon deux stratégies bien distinctes. En premier lieu sur substrat osidique avec le phosphore comme élément inducteur de l’accumulation de lipides, stratégie originale pour déclencher l’accumulation de lipides chez cette souche. Et deuxièmement sur co-susbtrats glucose et oléate et sans aucune limitation nutritionnelle.Ces stratégies de conduites ont permis de dégager les points suivants :- La limitation phosphore déclenche une accumulation en lipides mais aussi en polysaccharides de réserves mobilisables mais non transitoire contrairement à la limitation azote.- La teneur en phosphore de la biomasse catalytique est très variable. De ce fait, le taux de croissance de la biomasse catalytique n’est pas contrôlable par le débit en phosphore.- Le phosphore joue un rôle dans la régulation de l’entrée de glucose dans la cellule, et permet d’éviter la production de citrate lorsque les voies de production de biomasse et de lipides sont en débordement sur une large gamme de rapport C/P (de 0 à 8000 Cmole.mole-1).- La capacité maximale d’accumulation en réserves carbonées chez Y. lipolytica wT est identique quelle que soit la méthode d’accumulation (limitation azote, limitation phosphore, co-substrats glucose / oléate) et est égale à 0,5 Cmole/CmoleX-1. Il existe donc un phénomène de régulation de la levure encore inconnu et limitant l’accumulation en réserves carbonées chez cette souche.Ces résultats ont permis d’identifier des points clés dans l’accumulation en réserves carbonées de cette espèce levurienne et de proposer un mode de conduite original faisant l’objet d’un dépôt de brevet / Lipid accumulation by the yeast Yarrowia lipolytica wT was characterized by dynamic and systemic analysis of different metabolic states in a microbial culture under fully controlled environmental conditions with high cell concentration and under two different strategies:Glucose as the substrate and phosphorus limitation as an inducer of lipid accumulation, an original strategy for lipid accumulation in Y. lipolytica wT.A co-substrate strategy with glucose and oleic acid and without any nutritional limitation.These strategies allowed showing the following points:- Phosphorus limitation triggers a lipid accumulation and a non-transient accumulation of reserve polysaccharide that can be consumed by biomass when necessary, contrary to nitrogen limitation- Phosphorus rate in catalytic biomass shows great variations. Catalytic growth rate cannot be governed by phosphorus input. - Phosphorus has a role in regulating cellular glucose uptake and allows avoiding citric acid production due to overflow of carbon input over a large range of C/P ratios (0 to 8000 Cmol.mol-1)- Maximum capacity of reserve carbon accumulation in Y. lipolytica wT is similar for any culture strategy tested (under nitrogen limitation, phosphorus limitation or with glucose and oleic acid co-substrates) and is equal to 0,5 Cmol/CmolX-1. There is an unknown phenomenon of carbon regulation limiting reserve carbon accumulation in Y. lipolytica wT. Results allowed identifying key points in reserve carbon accumulation in this particular yeast strain and suggesting an original process, claim of a patent
167

Menová politika Federálneho rezervného systému v období finančnej a hospodárskej krízy / Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System during financial and economic crisis

Babušák, Martin January 2012 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of measures taken by the Federal Reserve System in response to the 2007 financial crisis that was later joined by economic crisis. It analyzes effects caused by modification of existing programs, creation of new credit programs, support of systemically important institutions by the Fed and programs of outright purchase of selected assets on the open market. The thesis also examines the behavior of the Fed in setting of a target interest rate in longer term, from 2000 to 2011. The thesis verifies the validity of the Taylor rule of monetary policy by using regression analysis. Appendix at the end of the thesis emphasizes the importance of the U.S. dollar in the current international monetary system and the associated implications for the external stability of the U.S. economy.
168

Návrh antény s kruhovou polarizací pro kmitočtové pásmo 2,4 GHz / Design of circular polarized antenna for 2.4 GHz

Hase, Michal January 2008 (has links)
In this thesis, I introduce two types of circularly polarized rectangular microstrip antennas at 2.44 GHz. First type has direct fed and the second has two inputs for fed. In first case is used a stub to make the frequency with minimum return loss and equal to the frequency with minimum axial ratio. In second case is use the power splitter to divide the wave in to two lines with phase shift 90° for feeding the patch. In this thesis is described, how to get the best results of Axial Ratio.
169

Podnikatelský záměr - uvedení nového produktu na trh / Business plan - new product market penetration

Sklenář, Tereza January 2008 (has links)
This marketing thesis focuses on the elaboration of a business plan for market penetration of a new product. This novel product will be a newly designed mobility aid addressed for people with limitated ability of movement of their legs. It would lift their legs from the vertical to the horizontal position and back without any effort being exerted by the user. Such a device is currently not available on the Czech market. This project contains both a theoretical background which is instrumental for better orientation in this area and also an analysis of the inner and the outer backgrounds behind a business plan for the market penetration of this new product. This thesis also contains a review of today’s products in the general area, measures taken before the commencement of potential sale, a distribution plan, promotion strategy, economical evaluation and a plan for the lead-in of the produkt onto the market.
170

[en] CONNECTING THE DOTS: ASSIGNING FOMC MEMBERS TO FED DOTS THROUGH SPEECH QUANTIFICATION / [pt] LIGANDO OS PONTOS: ASSOCIANDO MEMBROS DO FOMC AOS DOTS DO FED ATRAVÉS DA QUANTIFICAÇÃO DE DISCURSOS

LUCAS ZANIBONI 10 June 2019 (has links)
[pt] Como (1) aponta, a previsibilidade acerca da política monetária pode melhorar a eficácia da política de estabilização de um Banco Central. Nesse artigo, procuramos reduzir a incerteza a respeito de um instrumento de Forward Guidance do Banco Central norte-americano (o Federal Reserve) estimando distribuições de probabilidade completas sobre todas as associações possíveis entre seus membros e o dot plot de taxa de juros para cada reunião. Nossa contribuição para a literatura ocorre em duas frentes: primeiro, propomos um algoritmo Bayesiano geral que estima essas hipóteses de associação entre agentes e ações sempre que elas não são observadas. Além disso, elaboramos uma maneira nova e menos subjetiva para quantificar textos em dados numéricos, usando Alocação Latente Dirichlet (LDA) e modelos econométricos de seleção. Esse método apresenta algumas características desejáveis como uma correlação positiva entre o presidente do FOMC e o resto do comitê, e um ordenamento na postura de política monetária que reflete, ainda que parcialmente, visões de analistas de mercado a respeito desse espectro entre membros mais duros e mais lenientes com a taxa de juros. Nosso algoritmo de rastreamento de alvos também tem bom desempenho num ambiente simulado, no sentido em que, em média, considera como mais provável a verdadeira associação entre membros e dots. Usando dados reais de discursos individuais e dots, ele também consegue atribuir a maior probabilidade para a associação correta na única reunião em que ela é conhecida de fato. / [en] As (1) points out, monetary policy predictability can enhance a Central Bank stabilization policy efficacy. In this paper we aim to reduce uncertainty about one Federal Reserve forward guidance instrument by estimating full association probabilities distributions between members and the interest rate dot plot for each FOMC meeting. Our contribution to the literature is twofold: first, we propose a general Bayesian algorithm which estimates these association hypotheses between agents and actions whenever they are not observed. Second, we elaborate a novel and less subjective technique for quantifying text into data, using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and shrinkage econometric tools. This method shows some desirable features such as positive correlation between the FOMC chair and the rest of the committee, and a policy stance ordering which partially reflects analysts and market participants views on this hawk-dove spectrum. Our tracking algorithm performs successfully in a simulated environment, in a sense that it on average considers the correct member-to-dot association as the most likely one. Using real data on speeches and Fed dots, it is also able to attribute the highest probability to the correct assignment hypothesis in the only meeting it is known for sure.

Page generated in 0.0464 seconds