BACKGROUND Consanguinity - or marriage between close blood relatives, in particular first cousins - is widely practised and even socially encouraged in many countries. However, in the face of fertility transition where the number of cousins eligible to marry declines, how might such constraints on consanguinity develop in the future? OBJECTIVE Numerous studies have stated that the practice cannot continue at present levels and in its present form in the face of fertility transition. However, the future impact of fertility transition on availability of cousins to marry has not yet been quantified. METHODS We perform a simulation exercise using past and projected net reproduction rates (NRRs) derived from the UN. We calculate the average number of cousins of the opposite sex as a function of the average number of children, the average probability of an individual having at least one eligible paternal cousin of the opposite sex, and conclude with an examination of constraints on consanguineous marriage in selected countries under different fertility assumptions. RESULTS Current and projected fertility levels in Middle Eastern countries will create challenging constraints on the custom once today's birth cohorts reach marriageable age. CONCLUSIONS Either consanguinity prevalence will diminish significantly, or the institution will be forced to adapt by becoming more coercive in the face of reduced choice or at the expense of other social preferences (such as for an older groom wedding a younger bride). Fertility decline affects prospects for social change not only through its well-known consequences for mothers but also through shaping marriage conditions for the next generation.

<p>The 20th century has witnessed several wars and genocides worldwide. Notable examples include the Armenian and Jews genocides which took place during World War I and World War II respectively. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is a more recent example. These wars and genocides have impacted on the socio-economic and demographic transition with resounding crisis. The present study focused on the Rwandan genocide which affected households and families by reducing the fertility rate. Hence the fertility transition in Rwanda was analyzed for the period before, during and after genocide.</p>

<p>The 20th century has witnessed several wars and genocides worldwide. Notable examples include the Armenian and Jews genocides which took place during World War I and World War II respectively. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is a more recent example. These wars and genocides have impacted on the socio-economic and demographic transition with resounding crisis. The present study focused on the Rwandan genocide which affected households and families by reducing the fertility rate. Hence the fertility transition in Rwanda was analyzed for the period before, during and after genocide.</p>

<p>The 20th century has witnessed several wars and genocides worldwide. Notable examples include the Armenian and Jews genocides which took place during World War I and World War II respectively. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is a more recent example. These wars and genocides have impacted on the socio-economic and demographic transition with resounding crisis. The present study focused on the Rwandan genocide which affected households and families by reducing the fertility rate. Hence the fertility transition in Rwanda was analyzed for the period before, during and after genocide.</p>

<p>The 20th century has witnessed several wars and genocides worldwide. Notable examples include the Armenian and Jews genocides which took place during World War I and World War II respectively. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is a more recent example. These wars and genocides have impacted on the socio-economic and demographic transition with resounding crisis. The present study focused on the Rwandan genocide which affected households and families by reducing the fertility rate. Hence the fertility transition in Rwanda was analyzed for the period before, during and after genocide.</p>

Magister Scientiae - MSc / The 20th century has witnessed several wars and genocides worldwide. Notable examples include the Armenian and Jews genocides which took place during World War I and World War II respectively. The Rwandan genocide of 1994 is a more recent example. These wars and genocides have impacted on the socio-economic and demographic transition with resounding crisis. The present study focused on the Rwandan genocide which affected households and families by reducing the fertility rate. Hence the fertility transition in Rwanda was analyzed for the period before, during and after genocide. / South Africa

This thesis investigates the relationship between violent conflicts and sexual and reproductive health in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The aim of the thesis is to investigate how war affects demographic outcomes across individual life courses. The thesis contributes to the research field by linking macro level conflict data measuring the intensity and frequency of violent conflict with micro level data on women’s sexual and birth histories and infant deaths across time and place. The results show that war affects infants’ survival and women’s sexual and reproductive health and behavior. The first study finds an increase of premarital first sexual intercourse during the violent conflicts in Rwanda. The second study finds evidence of a delay in the fertility transition due to the Congolese war and the lingering conflicts in East DRC. The third study suggests that the Congolese war affects infant mortality, but only post-neonatal mortality. Despite consistent evidence that conflict affects the everyday life of women and children, the mechanisms that explain this relationship are largely unknown. This thesis identifies important gaps in the research that limit our understanding of the mechanisms at work. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Submitted.</p>

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Premarital fertility, that is, childbearing before first marriage, is an important yet under researched demographic topic in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zimbabwe, the distinction by marital status in fertility research is hardly drawn. Hence, a gap exists in the knowledge of premarital fertility levels. This research aims to investigate levels of, and factors associated with, premarital fertility since the onset of Zimbabwe's fertility transition in the mid-1980s. The research employed direct fertility estimation techniques to effectively compare premarital, marital, and overall fertility trends between 1988 and 2015. Cox proportional-hazards regression and forest plot analyses were then used to explain changes in factors associated with the timing of premarital first births over the same period. Data quality assessments were carried out using the method of cohortperiod fertility rates to provide explanations for any erratic results. The results showed that premarital fertility was constant and moderate, with an average of 0.7 children per woman, between 1988 and 2015. While most premarital first births consistently occurred to younger women, from 2005 onwards, they increased among women aged above 24 years and decreased among adolescents. An increase in age, commencing sexual activity after adolescence, and improved socio-economic status including level of education decreased the relative risk of having a premarital first birth. However, delaying marriage past young womanhood, history of contraceptive use, Ndebele ethnicity, and residence in regions other than Manicaland and Masvingo, especially Ndebele dominated regions, increased the same risk by 465.0%, 45.5%, 136.0% and up to 135.0% respectively. The stagnation of premarital fertility between 1988 and 2015 while both marital and overall fertility first declined and then stalled indicates that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that premarital fertility had contributed to the stall of fertility decline in Zimbabwe from the mid-1990s. The timing of premarital first births since the start of the fertility transition in the 1980s has had a strong ethnic and cultural bias. Due to evidence of the effect of migrancy and tourism on premarital fertility in border and tourism towns, an extension into the theory of migrant premarital sexual behaviour to detail the risk of premarital fertility among border town residents who interact with but are neither migrants nor tourists is recommended.

Background: The challenge of research in resource-poor settings remains a profound concern and is closely linked to African social development. Work of this thesis spans the end of apartheid and first decade of the democratic era in South Africa, along with emergence of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. It also covers the founding decade of the INDEPTH Network. Aims: Through appraising health and population research in a rural southern African sub-district over the past decade, to evaluate the utility of health and socio-demographic surveillance in rural African settings for: • capturing the dynamics of health, population and social transitions • supporting a mix of research designs, and • contributing to policy and programme development and evaluation. To extend this appraisal by examining the multi-site opportunities offered by the INDEPTH Network. Methods: Work was sited in the Agincourt sub-district, a heavily populated border area of rural north-eastern South Africa. Health and socio-demographic surveillance, introduced in 1992, involved prospective follow-up of the entire sub-district population of 70,000 people (including some 30% Mozambican immigrants) who lived in 11,700 households and 21 villages. Annual census rounds systematically updated household membership and recorded all vital events (births, deaths and migrations) since the previous census. A maternity history was asked of women of reproductive age and a verbal autopsy carried out on all deaths registered. The resulting ‘data and research platform’ – a core feature of all INDEPTH field sites – provided data for computation of trends in vital events and supported an extensive interdisciplinary project portfolio. The population under surveillance can be disaggregated into cohorts selected by age, sex or other criteria. Analyses are possible at multiple levels (individual, family/household or neighborhood) and can include socioeconomic factors. Findings: The Agincourt community experienced a serious worsening of mortality among most age-sex groups, rapidly declining fertility to near replacement level, and changing patterns of labour migration. This resulted in major changes in population structure and household composition. The rising burden of chronic disease involved both chronic infectious illness (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and non-communicable disorders (such as stroke and related vascular disease). The burden of illness requiring chronic care increased disproportionately to that needing acute care. Potential contributions of field sites based on health and socio-demographic surveillance to local and national health policy are considerable yet remain underexploited. Interpretation: Rural South and southern Africa is in the midst of multiple, interrelated transitions with implications for health, social and development sectors. Health and socio-demographic surveillance systems are effective research instruments that can capture the rapidly-changing dynamics of health and social transitions in developing settings. Similarly, they can support a range of observational and intervention study designs including policy evaluations. The INDEPTH Network should boost much-needed comparative research; yet singly, and as a group, many of these sites have yet to fulfil their undoubted potential.