The aim of this work was to analyze selected branch from the stock market through technical and fundamental analysis. The target is to formulate the most appropriate investment strategy for each sector. The starting point for selecting appropriate investment strategy is inefficient market hypothesis. Selection of the investment strategy, depend on the current economic situation. Based on given results, it is not recommended to use any of the strategies. However, it can propose a suitable investment portfolio. The selected investment portfolio is certainly dependent on many factors. Among these factors belongs the current economic situation and investor´s attitude to risk. Choosing an investment strategy is also influenced by the investor's own attitude to the theory of efficient markets. Investors will opt for active or passive investment strategy on the basis of their opinion.

The aim of this diploma work was to analyze a selected segment of the stock exchange market using the theory of market efficiency and the methods of technical and fundamental analysis, to form an optimal investment strategy on the basis of the findings. The American stock exchange market was analyzed. Six different segments of the capital market were selected ? gold, oil and gas pipelines, steel and iron, car parts, food and telecommunication services. Each segment was represented by eight companies. The general characteristics of the companies were compared according to their profits, degree of risk, alpha and beta coefficients. Fundamental analysis was used to monitor the correlation between future profits for 2012 and alpha coefficients for the period 2007 ? 2011. The theory was proven ? at low levels of future profits, high levels of alpha coefficients were measured and vice versa - at high levels of future profits, low levels of alpha coefficients were measured. During efficiency tests, runs tests and correlation tests were monitored. During runs tests, the number of turns of a real file was compared with the number of runs of a simulated file; no distinctive variances were identified in the monitored stock titles. Forms of market efficiency were proven during the correlation tests and runs tests. The methods of technical analysis used were sliding averages, RSI indicators and Momentum. Trading on the basis of technical analysis is not completely possible because we did not succeed in finding an existing optimal strategy. If an optimal strategy works out it is regardless of the segment?s characteristics. I recommend a passive strategy with regards to the fundamental analysis.

The principal objective of this work is to test the efficiency of the U.S. capital market and to specify the degree of this effectiveness and then to find out the optimal strategy to evaluate the money invested into selected companies. At first there is theory description - the basic classification of securities, explication of the notion of efficiency of capital market, the methods of test the efficiency, several statistic indicators of the capital market like return average, standard deviation or coefficients of the capital market. Following this theoretical base there is create an analyse of one of the most popular capital markets in American index S&P 500 and of its sectors and some securities. Historical dates of years 2003 - 2008 are analysed and on the basis of results there are propositions which strategy to choose. There wasn't directly confirmed effectiveness of U.S. capital market in this work. So there was a possibility to choose an investment strategy to get an above-average return. The results were very influenced by the crisis since 2007.

The insolvency business represents an excellent subject for a wide and diverse range of economic agents and may be the result of complex internal and external factors to the company. Considering these factors, it is assumed the assumption that fundamental analysis fulfills an important role in addressing these issues, whether in character microeconomic or macroeconomic context. In order to investigate the influence and behavior of these factors, identified from the macroeconomic, sectoral, and the fundamentals of companies, we use the statistical method and technique of multivariate discriminant analysis. The main restrictive assumption concerns the relevance of including variables other than those normally used in forecasting models of corporate insolvency. The investigation process is delimited as follows: in spatial terms of specificity and covers large companies with a designation of SA (corporation) a publicly traded operating in Brazil. The time frame considered the year 2008 and covers the macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. And as research design considers the observational study in conjunction with the application of multivariate statistical method and by the statistical technique of discriminant analysis. Given the various studies related to prediction of bankruptcy that are very similar to this research, probably the significance of financial ratios representing the predictor variables normally used in the discriminant model variables and distinctly included in this analysis is relatively similar, where the statistical significance of each of these variables is coherent and consistent in the analysis of insolvency of Brazilian companies. / A insolvência empresarial representa um tema relevante para um conjunto amplo e diversificado de agentes econômicos e pode ser resultado de um complexo de fatores internos e externos à empresa. Tendo em vista estes fatores, assume-se o pressuposto de que a análise fundamentalista cumpre papel relevante ao tratar destes aspectos, sejam eles em caráter microeconômico ou num contexto macroeconômico. No intuito de investigar a influência e o comportamento destes fatores, identificados a partir das variáveis macroeconômicas, setoriais e dos fundamentos das empresas, utiliza-se o método estatístico multivariado e a técnica de análise discriminante. A principal hipótese restritiva se refere à relevância da inclusão de variáveis distintas das normalmente utilizadas em modelos de previsão de insolvência empresarial. O processo de investigação delimita-se da seguinte forma: em termos espaciais e de especificidade, abrange empresas de grande porte com denominação de S.A. (Sociedade Anônima) de capital aberto atuantes no Brasil. A delimitação temporal considera o ano de 2008 e engloba as variáveis macroeconômicas e microeconômicas. E como delineamento de pesquisa considera-se o estudo observacional em conjunto com a aplicação do método estatístico multivariado e mediante a técnica estatística de análise discriminante. Diante dos vários estudos ligados à previsão de insolvência que em muito se assemelham a esta pesquisa, provavelmente a relevância dos índices financeiros que representam as variáveis preditoras normalmente utilizadas no modelo discriminante e as variáveis distintamente incluídas nesta análise seja relativamente semelhante, onde a significância estatística de cada uma destas variáveis seja coerente e consistente no processo de análise de insolvência de empresas brasileiras.

Syfte: Det huvudsakliga syftet är att testa om Piotroskis F_SCORE tillämpat på aktier med hög book-to-market kvot kan överavkasta marknadsportföljen samt, som en konsekvens av detta, undersöka vilken grad av marknadseffektivitet som föreligger. Det sekundära syftet är att tillföra ett kunskapsbidrag till företagsledare om relevansen i book-to-market kvoten. Metod: Detta är en kvantitativ studie som utgår från ett positivistiskt synsätt och en hypotetiskt-deduktiv ansats. Statistiska tester i form av regressionsanalyser har utformats för att bestämma resultatets signifikansnivå. Den empiriska datan har inhämtats från databasen Thomson Reuter Datastream och sammanställts i Excel för att sedan analyseras i statistikprogrammet Stata. Resultat & slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att värdeportföljen överavkastar marknadsindex samt att den gör det över en längre tidsperiod. Det går också att fastställa att den riskjusterade avkastningen för värdeportföljen är högre än för marknaden, vilket tyder på att överavkastningen inte beror på en högre risk. Det går dock inte att avgöra om den effektiva marknadshypotesen råder eller ej, däremot går det att utesluta att den starka och semi-starka formen av marknadseffektivitet gäller. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: För att studera vidare huruvida den svaga formen av marknadseffektivitet råder är ett förslag till vidare forskning att göra en studie utifrån Contrarian modellen för att använda teknisk analys som endast tar hänsyn till historiska kursrörelser för att förutspå framtida avkastning. Ett annat förslag till vidare forskning är att genomföra en liknande studie som denna men då bortse från book to market kvoten och istället köpa aktier med ett F_SCORE högre eller lika med 5 samt att blanka de aktier som har ett F_SCORE under 5. Det tredje förslaget är att studera vidare kring sambandet mellan avkastning och anomalier som småbolagseffekten, likviditet och beteendefinans för att få en tydligare förståelse för vad som orsakar överavkastningen. Uppsatsens bidrag: Det teoretiska bidraget är att den aktuella investeringsstrategin överavkastar marknadsindex för vald tidsperiod utan en nödvändigtvis högre risk. F_SCORE antar en normalfördelningskurva där de bolag som har F_SCORE över fem generellt presterar bättre. Resultatet visar även att book to market kvoten är ett användbart nyckeltal för bolagsvärdering. Det praktiska bidraget är att det kan vara av vikt för företagsledare att fokusera på book to market kvoten för att locka investerare. För investerare är bidraget att denna investeringsstrategi kan slå marknadsindex utan att risken i portföljen ökar. / Aim The main aim is to test if Piotroskis F_SCORE applied on stocks with high book-to- market ratio outperforms the market portfolio and therefore determine the level of market efficiency. The secondary aim is to provide knowledge to business executives about the relevance of a book-to-market policy. Method This study is a quantitative research which assumes a positivistic research philosophy with a deductive approach. Several regression analyses have been used to confirm the statistical significance of the different estimated parameters. The empirical results give answers to two hypotheses based on the aim of this research. The empirical data have been collected from Thomson Reuter Datastream, compiled in Excel and analyzed with the statistical software Stata. Result & Conclusions The empirical results of this study show that the value portfolio has a higher return than the market index. The risk-adjusted return for the value portfolio is higher compared to the market portfolio. This indicates that the higher return of the value portfolio is not due to a higher risk. By the results of this study there is not possible to determine whether the market is fully efficient or not. It is only possible to exclude the strong and semi-strong form of market efficiency. Suggestions for future research For future studies, we suggest further research about the weak form of market efficiency. Using historical data to determine future return, as Contrarian model, is one suggestion to reach further evidence of market (in)efficiency. Since F_SCORE assumes a normal distribution and because of the poor performance of the low F_SCORE firms another suggestion is short-sell these stocks to see if the return ca be increased. This empirical field needs further research about which factors that causes the higher return for these stocks. The small firm effect, liquidity and behavioral finance are just a few anomalies that may have a relationship with excess return. Contribution of the thesis The investment strategy in this research shows a higher excess return compared to the market index as well as a higher risk-adjusted return over the given period. This is not only a contribution to investors but also in a theoretical field due to the efficient market hypothesis. F_SCORE have a normal distribution curve where the stocks with F_SCORE of 5 or higher generally have a higher mean return. Another contribution is the relevance of book to market ratio as a useful strategy for valuating companies. The practical contribution gives business executives better understanding about the relevance of a book-to-market policy when attracting investors.

This thesis is focused on the analysis by means of appropriate analytical methods. The theoretical part defines the content of the concepts and describes selected methods for its measurement and evaluation of factors placed upon it. The practical part applies the selected method for enterprise DSB EURO ltd. In conclusion summarizes the lessons learned and proposed measures for the future development of the company.

This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.

This diploma thesis deals with trading in the international stock markets in conditions of financial crisis. The theoretical part covers basic definitions associated with stock markets, followed by a chapter dedicated to business cycles, which are significantly related to the stock markets. The first goal of the thesis is numerical comparison of the extensions of the actual financial crisis with the most meaningful financial crisis over last one hundred years. The second aim of the work is to effectuate the technical analysis using selected technical indicators and evaluate its results in chosen periods.

The graduation thesis "Analysis of stock-exchange data using AI methods" is focused on the use of neural networks while predicating the exchange-rate movements on Change. The theoretical part is divided into three independent units. The Change matters and the related individual terms are described in the first part. In the second part, the two basic approaches to the stock-exchange data analysis are analyzed, these two approaches being the fundamental and technical analysis. The third, and the last, theoretical part forms an individual unit describing the Artificial Intelligence theory. Particularly the issue of the neuronal networks is described in detail. The practical part seeks the use for the chosen neuronal network GAME. It analyses the chosen YMZ9 market. It focuses on the prediction of the exchange-rate movements using the "sliding window" method. The last chapter summarizes the results and it proves that under certain circumstances it is possible to properly use the neuronal networks both for the prediction of the stock-exchange movements and as one of the corner-stones of the profitable trading system.

The diploma thesis deals with currency market analysis. There are three main types of analysis: fundamental, technical and psychological analysis. Each of these methods contains explanation of logic, on which the method is based, its advantages, disadvantages and specific examples of this analysis. Neural networks are furher explained in technical analysis. The practical part of the diploma thesis builds on knowledge of technical analysis and tests functionality of the neural networks in the environment of currency markets. The model is calibrated first and then it is used to predict the development of major currency pairs. The prediction is carried out on a monthly chart for December 2013.