Thesis advisor: Harold A. Petersen / This paper attempts to find the extent of the predictive power of the stock market in relation to consumption, non-residential investment, and corporate profits. Initially, a naïve model is formulated to assess the impact of the stock market on GDP, and then the model is used to find the predictive power of the stock market on the components. This component analysis compares the impact of the market on each of the components and attempts to find reasons for the variations in impact. Finally, the long term predictive power of the various models is assessed. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2005. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program.

In the last two or three decades, corruption has become a noticeable issue in many countries, especially in developing countries where it has serious effects on the economy. In this paper, the effect of corruption on economic growth will be examined through literature and researches that involve the effect of corruption in economic growth followed by cross-sectional regression analysis to the issue. The focus will be on how much corruption and how much corruption control are present for each country. other different variables that could be expected to affect the economic growth for this period will also, be examined. To answer this question, corruption control as an independent variable while economic growth is the dependent variable will be examined. The second question would be to study corruption control as a dependent variable while using a set of variables as independent variables and see how much they would affect corruption control. Finally, a case study that draws a comparison between the economy in Germany and South Korea where the results from the empirical part will be applied to the two countries and the difference between the true reported numbers and the numbers from the OLS equations will be checked and explained.   From all the directions been taken to study the subject “literatures, empirical and case study “ the results showed that corruption activities have negative effects on economic growth and although it might be in some cases shown to be insignificant, however, it is very important to minimize the corruption activities by boosting variables such as corruption control, rule of law, stability and also education as it is shown that the more years of education will decrease the levels of corruption in some cases.   The conclusion here will be, although corruption may have more effects in some economies more than others, to combat corruption that will take a global effort. The countries that may not suffer greatly from it may be caught in the cost of cleaning it by having to support failed economies. Or worse, corruption may be increased to levels that it could not be ignored.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a evolução e os determinantes participação da agropecuária nos países da América do Sul (Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Equador, Guiana, Paraguai, Peru, Suriname, Uruguai e Venezuela) no período de 1960 até 2014, com foco nos anos a partir de 1990. Buscou-se avaliar por meio de modelos econométricos os determinantes da participação da agropecuária no crescimento econômico desses países de 1990 até 2014. Para tanto, considerou-se as vantagens comparativas dos países sul-americanos, levando em conta a disponibilidade de terras e a formação geológica desses países. A disponibilidade de capital e trabalho, outros fatores de produção além das terras, também foram incluídas na análise da evolução do setor agropecuário nos países supracitados. Analisou-se também a produção e balança comercial agrícola e pecuária desses países, importantes variáveis macroeconômicas de desempenho da atividade agropecuária. Outro ponto importante do trabalho é a comparação entre os dados de participação da renda de mineração e petróleo no PIB dos países da América do Sul com a participação da agropecuária nesse PIB, dando atenção especial à análise dessas participações na primeira década dos anos 2000. Os resultados obtidos na dissertação mostram que a Argentina, o Brasil, o Paraguai e o Uruguai (considerados como primeiro grupo) possuem inclinação para o setor agropecuário, apesar de que os dois primeiros países citados nesse grupo apresentarem relevante participação da mineração e do petróleo na renda desses países. Por outro lado, a Bolívia, o Chile, a Colômbia, o Equador, a Guiana, o Peru, o Suriname e a Venezuela, apresentaram aumento da participação dos setores de mineração e/ou petróleo em seus PIBs após os anos de 2000 e queda após a crise de 2008. Por fim, as regressões econométricas desenvolvidas comprovam que a participação da agropecuária no PIB dos países da América do Sul (com exceção da Argentina, da Guiana, do Suriname e da Venezuela) depende positivamente da relação entre preços agropecuários e preços não agropecuários. Há indícios de que essa relação depende inversamente da produtividade do setor industrial e positivamente da própria produtividade do setor agropecuário. / The purpose of this study is to analyze the evolution of agriculture in the countries of South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) after the 1960s until 2014, focusing on the years from 1990. We pursue to evaluate through econometric models the determinants of agriculture\'s contribution to economic growth in these countries from 1990 until 2014. It was analyzed the comparative advantages of the South American countries, considering the land resources and geological formation of the countries. The availability of the resources capital and labor, other factors of production in addition to the land, were also included in the analysis of the evolution of the agricultural sector in the countries mentioned above. Another topic of this research is the agricultural production, agricultural and livestock trade balance in these countries, relevant macroeconomic variables that measure the performance of agricultural activity. Another point of the study is the comparison between the participation of mining and oil income in the GDP of the South American countries with the participation of agriculture and livestock in this GDP, paying special attention to the analysis of these participations in the first decade of the 2000s. This analysis proves that Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay (considered as the first group) are inclined to the agricultural sector, although the first two countries mentioned in this group present a significant participation of mining and oil in the income Countries. On the other hand, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela showed an increase in the share of mining and / or petroleum sectors in their GDPs after the After the crisis of 2008. Finally, the developed econometric regressions show that the share of agriculture in GDP of South American countries (except Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela) depends on positively the relationship between agricultural prices and non-agricultural prices and the actual productivity of these sectors. There are indications of that this relationship depends inversely on the productivity of the industrial sector and positively on the productivity of the agricultural sector.

O complexo agroindustrial (CAI), como relação comercial e industrial envolvendo a cadeia produtiva de produtos de origem vegetal e animal, percebe que o insumo \"energia\" tem se tornado cada dia mais importante, ocupando lugar de destaque na avaliação de custos de produção. Neste contexto, o panorama do setor energético indica uma influência imediata na produção de riquezas advindas deste setor e seus setores correlatos. O CAI é hoje delimitado pelos seguintes segmentos: o das indústrias que fornecem para o setor agropecuário, as quais se entendem como as indústrias de bens de capital, defensivos, fertilizantes, sementes e matrizes, assim como de outros insumos; o do setor agropecuário em si; o das indústrias que fazem uso das matérias-primas do setor agropecuário, do qual se distinguem a agroindústria e a indústria de alimentos; e o do comércio e serviços de produtos agropecuários. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo utilizando técnicas multivariadas que relacionam os segmentos do CAI, suas demandas e consumos de energia, os indivíduos produtores e consumidores, os quais são aqui representados pelas unidades federativas (UF), e suas capacidades em produzir riquezas para o país, ou seja, suas respectivas contribuições ao produto interno bruto (PIB). A análise continua pelos energéticos envolvidos e por suas evoluções na produção e consumo, concluindo com as definições das correlações que apresentam uma visão sistêmica de como o panorama energético do país pode influenciar na cadeia do agronegócio, para dentro e fora da porteira das fazendas. / The agroindustrial complex (CAI), as industrial and commercial relationship involving the production chain of products of plant and animal origin, realizes that the input \"energy\" has become increasingly important, occupying a prominent place in the evaluation of production costs. In this context, the overview of the energy sector indicates an immediate influence on the production of wealth arising from this sector and its related industries. The CAI is now defined by the following segments: the industries that provide for the agricultural sector, which are understood as the industries of capital goods, pesticides, fertilizers, seeds and dies, as well as other inputs; the agricultural sector itself; the industries that make use of raw materials in the agricultural sector, which are distinguished agribusiness and the food industry; and the trade of agricultural products and services. This paper presents a study using multivariate techniques relating segments of the CAI, their demands and energy consumption, producers and consumers individuals, which are represented here by the federal units (UF), and its capacity to produce wealth for the country, ie their contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis continues by energy involved and their developments in production and consumption, concluding with the definitions of correlations that have a systemic view of how the energy landscape of the country can influence the agribusiness chain, inside and outside the gate of the farm.

O aumento do consumo de energia elÃtrica à considerado uma das condiÃÃes bÃsicas para o desenvolvimento econÃmico de um paÃs. O Brasil, nos Ãltimos anos, tem apresentado significativos aumentos em seu consumo de energia elÃtrica, e o Governo Federal nÃo dispÃe de recursos para investir adequadamente no setor. Assim sendo, o paÃs està passando por profundas modificaÃÃes em sua estrutura energÃtica, buscando adequarse para garantir o futuro do setor. Conhecer bem a demanda de energia elÃtrica, atravÃs de anÃlises economÃtricas, à de fundamental importÃncia para possibilitar que investidores privados supram a deficiÃncia de investimentos do setor pÃblico. Esse trabalho utilizarà modelos economÃtricos, pelo mÃtodo dos mÃnimos quadrados e pelo mÃtodo dos mÃnimos quadrados em dois estÃgios para sugerir modelos que expliquem o consumo de energia elÃtrica no Estado do CearÃ. Para as anÃlises, foram considerados como variÃveis independentes o nÃmero de domicÃlios do Estado do CearÃ, o PIB do Estado do Cearà e do Brasil, a tarifa mÃdia de energia brasileira, o consumo de energia elÃtrica do Brasil e uma variÃvel qualitativa dummy. Foram feitos 07 diferentes modelos utilizando o MÃtodo dos MÃnimos Quadrados e 02 modelos utilizando o MÃtodo dos MÃnimos Quadrados em Dois EstÃgios. Cada modelo foi analisado individualmente. Algumas variÃveis que inicialmente acreditava-se terem alta representatividade no consumo de energia elÃtrica, como por exemplo a tarifa de energia elÃtrica, demonstraram-se pouco significativas em diversos modelos, enquanto que outras, como por exemplo o nÃmero de domicÃlios, apresentaram alta significÃncia nos modelos. Por esse motivo, optou-se por fazer diversos modelos, permitindo com isso analisar a interaÃÃo das diversas variÃveis. Para o mÃtodo dos mÃnimos quadrados em dois estÃgios, considerou-se como endÃgenas as variÃveis PIB do Estado do Cearà e o Consumo de Energia ElÃtrica do Estado do CearÃ. / The increase of electric power consumption is considered one of the basic conditions for the economic growth of any country. Brazil, in the last years, has presented significant increases in its supply/demand of electric power, in spite of the Federal Government having lack of financial resources to invest adequately in this sector. Nevertheless, the country has experienced sharp modifications in its energy structure, trying to adjust itself to guarantee the future of the sector and sustain the country growth. To properly know how to estimate the demand for electric power, through econometrical analyses, it is to be considered of high importance to a country or a region development. It allows private investor to supply the deficiency of investments of the public sector. This work will use several econometrical models, by the method of the least square and the method of the two stages least square to suggest models that explain the consumption path of electric power in the State of the Cearà The econometric analyses considered, as independent variables: the number of domiciles of the State of CearÃ, the GGP of the State of Cearà and Brazil, the average Brazilian energy tariffs, the Brazilian electric power consumption, and a qualitative dummy variable. It was done 07 different models using the least square method and 02 models using the two stages least square method. Each model was then individually analyzed. Some variables that initially were given credit to have high representation in the power consumption of the state, as for example the tariffs of electric power, had been demonstrated during the work little significance in many models, while others, such as the number of domiciles, had showed high significance in the models. Thatâs the main reason why it was opted to make a large variety of models, allowing to analyze the interaction of all the variables. For the method of the two stages least square, it was considered as endogenous variables the GGP of the State of the Cearà and consumption de electric power of the State of CearÃ.

A previsão do PIB é um dos principais balizadores para as decisões produtivas de agentes econômicos. Com o objetivo de realizar previsões para o crescimento do PIB trimestral brasileiro, são utilizadas 16 séries mensais financeiras e econômicas como potenciais preditores, abrangendo o período do segundo trimestre de 1996 ao quarto trimestre de 2012. Para isso, aplicou-se as abordagens MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) e UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling), confrontando seus resultados de previsão fora da amostra com o benchmark ARMA. Foram encontrados erros de previsão menores nessas abordagens, principalmente quando utilizadas informações dentro do trimestre de previsão. Os resultados foram ainda melhores quando empregados múltiplos regressores. / The GDP forecast is an important indicator for production decisions taken by economic agents. In order to make forecasts for the Brazilian quarterly GDP growth, we used 16 monthly financial and economic series as potential predictors, covering the period from the second quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2012. For this purpose, we applied MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) and UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling) approaches and compared the out of sample forecasts with the benchmark ones provided by ARMA. MI- DAS and UMIDAS showed smaller prediction errors, especially when information inside the quarter forecast is used. The results were even better when multiple regressors were employed.

La presente investigación tiene como finalidad determinar los principales factores que contribuyeron al incremento de las exportaciones peruanas de uva fresca a Estados Unidos durante los años 2002- 2017. Específicamente, determinar si es que la producción nacional, el precio FOB de las exportaciones peruanas a Estados Unidos y el PBI de Estados Unidos fueron factores determinantes para el incremento de las exportaciones peruanas de uva fresca a Estados Unidos durante los años 2002 - 2017. La metodología utilizada es análisis cuantitativo de tipo correlacional, ya que se pretende determinar la significancia estadística de las variables y conocer si existe o no relación entre estas. Todo esto con la finalidad de brindar información clara y real acerca de los factores que influyen en este rubro a los exportadores y todos los relacionados directa o indirectamente con este sector y sectores similares. / The purpose of the following research is to discover the main factors that determine the peruvian exports of fresh grapes between the years 2002 - 2017. Specifically, if the national production, the FOB price of the peruvian exports and the US GDP were determining factors for the increase in the peruvian export of fresh grapes between the years 2002 - 2017. The methodology used was a quantitative study with a correlational analysis, because we are trying to determine the statistical significance of the variables and to know if there is a relationship between them. All of this with the intention of giving clear and real information about the determining factors that influence this sector to the exporters and everyone that is directly or indirectly related to this sector or similar ones. / Tesis

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, China has experienced ten business cyclical fluctuations. The economic growth was characterized by erratic ups and downs which lasted for several decades. With the economic reform and opening up to the outside world in 1978 as part of Deng Xiaoping’s market-oriented policy, the Chinese economy grew exponentially and the volatility of the GDP growth rate declined significantly. The macroeconomic control policies in the 1980s prevented large fluctuations in the country’s economic development, and smoothed the output volatility further. This study examines the output volatility in China and our result reveals the standard deviation of quarterly output growth rate has declined dramatically. Using the CUSUM squares test and the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test to identify unknown structure breaks, we identified two structural breaks: 1994:1 towards destabilization and 1998:1 towards stabilization. We then examine the stochastic process for GDP and the result shows that the decrease in volatility can be traced primarily to a decrease in the standard deviation of output shocks. Following this, we reached two other conclusions. First, there is a strong relationship between movements in output volatility and the movements in inflation volatility. Both output and inflation volatilities increased significantly during the third and fourth quarter of 1994 and both dropped sharply after 1996, which followed a similar path over the period. Second, using the standard decomposition of GDP, the decrease in output volatility can be traced to a decrease in the volatility of consumption, investment, and net export, especially rural consumption expenditure and residential investment.

本文研究目的是在動態隨機一般均衡模型當中，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的最適比率。本文建立一封閉經濟體系，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率改變時，對主要的經濟變數有何影響。不同於先前的研究，我們假設在極大化福利的前提下，找尋最適的政府公債佔國內生產毛額比率。靜止均衡的分析發現，政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率與消費呈現正向變動的關係，與產出和勞動有著負向變動的關係。除此之外，當政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率增加時，福利水準會越來越低，因此，最適的公債比率為零。 / The objective of this paper is to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this paper, the model that we build is a closed economy. We discuss the effect of the optimal public debt to GDP ratio on primary variables. Different from previous research, we look for the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP that will maximize welfare. In the steady state analysis, we find that the ratio of public debt to GDP has the positive effect on consumption and negative effect on output and labor. Furthermore, the welfare level is lowered with the rise in the debt ratios to GDP. Thus, the optimal debt ratio should be 0.

<p>What is the total, summarized effect of immigration? Up to this date researchers have found both small positive effects and small negative effects for the same variable (e.g. wages or unemployment). As far as I know no one has yet focused on the total effect. With panel data on a bundle of variables for 22 OECD countries between 1970-2007, using multiple regression analysis I will estimate each variable individually and add together the signs of the effects to one combined sign (+/-/0). I find that the total, summarized effect of immigration tends to be slightly positive for OECD destination countries (under my assumptions).</p>