A previsão do PIB é um dos principais balizadores para as decisões produtivas de agentes econômicos. Com o objetivo de realizar previsões para o crescimento do PIB trimestral brasileiro, são utilizadas 16 séries mensais financeiras e econômicas como potenciais preditores, abrangendo o período do segundo trimestre de 1996 ao quarto trimestre de 2012. Para isso, aplicou-se as abordagens MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) e UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling), confrontando seus resultados de previsão fora da amostra com o benchmark ARMA. Foram encontrados erros de previsão menores nessas abordagens, principalmente quando utilizadas informações dentro do trimestre de previsão. Os resultados foram ainda melhores quando empregados múltiplos regressores. / The GDP forecast is an important indicator for production decisions taken by economic agents. In order to make forecasts for the Brazilian quarterly GDP growth, we used 16 monthly financial and economic series as potential predictors, covering the period from the second quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2012. For this purpose, we applied MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) and UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling) approaches and compared the out of sample forecasts with the benchmark ones provided by ARMA. MI- DAS and UMIDAS showed smaller prediction errors, especially when information inside the quarter forecast is used. The results were even better when multiple regressors were employed.

abstract: This study investigates three issues that are relevant for the development of multinational investment banks in China. The first is about the domestic market conditions that are necessary for a country to develop multinational investment banks. The second issue is about the degree to which China has met these conditions. The last issue focuses on the potential strategies Chinese investment banks can undertake to become multinational corporations. To address the first issue, I draw an important distinction between international investment banks and multinational investment banks. For an international investment bank to be regarded as a multinational, I propose that it must have a strong presence (i.e., holding at least one percent of the market share) in at least two of the seven major capital markets in the world. Using this criterion, I identify 25 multinational investment banks. I then analyze their home countries’ domestic market conditions and propose that the following six factors are important to the development of multinational investment banks: the size of the home country’s gross domestic product (GDP), the total capitalization of its domestic security market, the number of its Global 500 firms, the volume of its foreign direct investment (FDI), the internationalization of its currency, and the openness of its capital market to foreign investors. By comparisons, I find that China’s domestic market conditions are comparable to the home countries of multinational investment banks with respect to the size of GDP, total market capitalization, the number of Global 500 firms, and the volume of FDI. What China lags behind are the internationalization of currency and the openness of capital market to foreign investors. Given the current trends of development, it is very likely that China will be able to catch up on the latter within ten years, thus meeting all the conditions necessary for the development of multinational investment banks. Based on the above findings, I suggest that Chinese investment banks seize this historical opportunity, speed up the internationalization of their businesses, and learn from the experiences of global industry leaders to become truly multinational corporations. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015

A previsão do PIB é um dos principais balizadores para as decisões produtivas de agentes econômicos. Com o objetivo de realizar previsões para o crescimento do PIB trimestral brasileiro, são utilizadas 16 séries mensais financeiras e econômicas como potenciais preditores, abrangendo o período do segundo trimestre de 1996 ao quarto trimestre de 2012. Para isso, aplicou-se as abordagens MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) e UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling), confrontando seus resultados de previsão fora da amostra com o benchmark ARMA. Foram encontrados erros de previsão menores nessas abordagens, principalmente quando utilizadas informações dentro do trimestre de previsão. Os resultados foram ainda melhores quando empregados múltiplos regressores. / The GDP forecast is an important indicator for production decisions taken by economic agents. In order to make forecasts for the Brazilian quarterly GDP growth, we used 16 monthly financial and economic series as potential predictors, covering the period from the second quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2012. For this purpose, we applied MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) and UMIDAS (Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling) approaches and compared the out of sample forecasts with the benchmark ones provided by ARMA. MI- DAS and UMIDAS showed smaller prediction errors, especially when information inside the quarter forecast is used. The results were even better when multiple regressors were employed.

The present thesis deals with multiple econometric equations systems which might provide a useful insight into the national economy modelling. It takes into account possible pitfalls of common practices. It introduces the theory and estimation methods of multiple econometric equations systems. It also discusses the equality of savings and investment and the theory of money. Furthermore, it briefly analyses Klein's model I from a theoretical point of view and uses the three-step least squares method in order to estimate it. Partial modifications of this model are suggested and implemented. The quality of the competitive models is evaluated employing the predictive criterion. Consequently, the canonical NK DSGE model is derived and subjected to theoretical criticism. The thesis debates doubts on the relevance of the NK IS curve and argues that Lucas's critique is still valid. A generalized method of moments is used to implement the NK DSGE model. Finally, this model is briefly compared with Klein's model I.

nÃo hà / The paper makes an empirical analysis of the activities of tourism in CearÃ. The objective was to scale the activities of this segment in the region from about occupations and labor income available to official microdata obtained along the IPECE, IBGE and Ministry of Tourism for the years 1995 to 2012. The results were analyzed from the following data: national and international tourism demand, tourism revenue direct income generated and employment generated by the sector. It was found that the domestic demand is most responsible for generating tourist revenue in the state and within the tourism sector employing most sectors are housing and feeding. Finally, it was found that the evolution of tourist activity takes place along with the evolution of the GDP of the State of Cearà and the tourism sector contributes to a dispersion of regional income, since tourism is concentrated not only in the capital but also in several municipalities in the state. / O trabalho faz uma anÃlise empÃrica das atividades do turismo no CearÃ. O objetivo foi dimensionar as atividades deste segmento na regiÃo a partir de informaÃÃes sobre ocupaÃÃes e renda do trabalho disponÃveis nos dados oficiais obtidos juntamente ao IPECE, IBGE e MinistÃrio do Turismo relativo aos anos de 1995 a 2011. Os resultados foram analisados a partir dos seguintes dados: demanda turÃstica nacional e internacional, receita turÃstica, renda gerada e empregos gerados pelo setor. Verificou-se que a demanda nacional à a maior responsÃvel pela geraÃÃo de receita turÃstica no Estado e que dentro do segmento turÃstico os setores que mais empregam sÃo o de alojamento e alimentaÃÃo. Por fim, ficou constatado que a evoluÃÃo da atividade turÃstica ocorre juntamente com a evoluÃÃo do PIB do Estado do Cearà e que o segmento turÃstico contribui para uma dispersÃo da renda regional, uma vez que o turismo nÃo està concentrado somente na capital, mas tambÃm em diversos municÃpios do interior do Estado.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a evolução e os determinantes participação da agropecuária nos países da América do Sul (Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Equador, Guiana, Paraguai, Peru, Suriname, Uruguai e Venezuela) no período de 1960 até 2014, com foco nos anos a partir de 1990. Buscou-se avaliar por meio de modelos econométricos os determinantes da participação da agropecuária no crescimento econômico desses países de 1990 até 2014. Para tanto, considerou-se as vantagens comparativas dos países sul-americanos, levando em conta a disponibilidade de terras e a formação geológica desses países. A disponibilidade de capital e trabalho, outros fatores de produção além das terras, também foram incluídas na análise da evolução do setor agropecuário nos países supracitados. Analisou-se também a produção e balança comercial agrícola e pecuária desses países, importantes variáveis macroeconômicas de desempenho da atividade agropecuária. Outro ponto importante do trabalho é a comparação entre os dados de participação da renda de mineração e petróleo no PIB dos países da América do Sul com a participação da agropecuária nesse PIB, dando atenção especial à análise dessas participações na primeira década dos anos 2000. Os resultados obtidos na dissertação mostram que a Argentina, o Brasil, o Paraguai e o Uruguai (considerados como primeiro grupo) possuem inclinação para o setor agropecuário, apesar de que os dois primeiros países citados nesse grupo apresentarem relevante participação da mineração e do petróleo na renda desses países. Por outro lado, a Bolívia, o Chile, a Colômbia, o Equador, a Guiana, o Peru, o Suriname e a Venezuela, apresentaram aumento da participação dos setores de mineração e/ou petróleo em seus PIBs após os anos de 2000 e queda após a crise de 2008. Por fim, as regressões econométricas desenvolvidas comprovam que a participação da agropecuária no PIB dos países da América do Sul (com exceção da Argentina, da Guiana, do Suriname e da Venezuela) depende positivamente da relação entre preços agropecuários e preços não agropecuários. Há indícios de que essa relação depende inversamente da produtividade do setor industrial e positivamente da própria produtividade do setor agropecuário. / The purpose of this study is to analyze the evolution of agriculture in the countries of South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) after the 1960s until 2014, focusing on the years from 1990. We pursue to evaluate through econometric models the determinants of agriculture\'s contribution to economic growth in these countries from 1990 until 2014. It was analyzed the comparative advantages of the South American countries, considering the land resources and geological formation of the countries. The availability of the resources capital and labor, other factors of production in addition to the land, were also included in the analysis of the evolution of the agricultural sector in the countries mentioned above. Another topic of this research is the agricultural production, agricultural and livestock trade balance in these countries, relevant macroeconomic variables that measure the performance of agricultural activity. Another point of the study is the comparison between the participation of mining and oil income in the GDP of the South American countries with the participation of agriculture and livestock in this GDP, paying special attention to the analysis of these participations in the first decade of the 2000s. This analysis proves that Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay (considered as the first group) are inclined to the agricultural sector, although the first two countries mentioned in this group present a significant participation of mining and oil in the income Countries. On the other hand, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela showed an increase in the share of mining and / or petroleum sectors in their GDPs after the After the crisis of 2008. Finally, the developed econometric regressions show that the share of agriculture in GDP of South American countries (except Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela) depends on positively the relationship between agricultural prices and non-agricultural prices and the actual productivity of these sectors. There are indications of that this relationship depends inversely on the productivity of the industrial sector and positively on the productivity of the agricultural sector.

Universidade Federal do Cearà / A tese intitulada "Ensaios Econometricos sobre a dinÃmica do Pib AgrÃcola" à composta de trÃs artigos. O primeiro artifo à intitulado "Setor AgrÃcola Brasileiro: Uma anÃlise de ConvergÃncia Microregional" analise o processo de convergÃncia microregional agrÃcola utilizando o Modelo Threshold no perÃodo de 1970 a 1996. Os resultados mostraram a existÃncia de cinco clubes de convergÃncia; um com um grupo de microregiÃes mais ricas, um com um grupo de microregiÃes mais pobres e trÃs grupos intermediÃrios. Os resultados tambÃm mostraram que o capital fÃsico à mais importante que o capital humano na explicaÃÃo do processo de crescimento. O segundo artigo intitulado: "O Setor AgrÃcola Brasileiro: Uma aplicaÃÃo do Modelo de TendÃncias e Ciclos Comuns no perÃodo de 1990 a 2005", analisa o comportamento das variaveis produto agrÃcola, taxa de cÃmbio real e saldo da balanÃa comercial agrÃcola brasileira. Utilizou-se a tÃcnica de cointegraÃÃo para identificar um sistema de vetores auto-regressivos com tendÃncias estocÃsticas comuns e para investigar as respostas do sistema a choques transitÃrios e permanentes. Os testes comprovaram a existÃncia de uma tendÃncia estocÃstica comum e dois ciclos comuns entre as variÃveis. As decomposiÃÃes das variÃncias indicam que os choques transitÃrios explicam a maior parte das flutuaÃÃes de curto e longo prazo no produto agrÃcola. Constatou-se tambÃm que os choques permanentes sÃo mais importantes para explicar as variÃncias da taxa de cÃmbio e da balanÃa comercial agrÃcola, principalmente no longo prazo. O terceiro artigo intitulado: "PrevisÃo da Taxa de Crescimento do Produto AgrÃcola Brasileiro: Uma aplicaÃÃo de Modelos de Ãndice de DifusÃo Linear e NÃo Linear" aplica os modelos linear e nÃo linear de Ãndice de difusÃo com efeito threshold para prever, um perÃodo à frente, a taxa de crescimento trimestral do Pib agrÃcola brasileiro. Estes modelos sÃo compostos por fatores que sÃo observÃveis e representam uma caracterÃstica comum das variÃveis explicativas, permitindo uma reduÃÃo significativa do nÃmero destas variÃveis. Em seguida à feita a comparaÃÃo das previsÃes destes modelos entre si e em relaÃÃo ao modelo AR que à tomado como benchmark. Verifica-se que o modelo de Ãndice de difusÃo linear apresentou uma pequena superioridade, em termos de eficiÃncia preditiva, em relaÃÃo aos modelos nÃo linear e AR, que apresentaram resultados semelhantes. / The thesis entitled "Econometrical assays on the dynamics of the agricultural Gdp" is composed of three papers. The first article is entitled "Brazilian Agricultural Sector: An Analysis of Microregional Convergence" analyzes the process of agricultural micro regional convergence using the Threshold Model in the period 1970 to 1996. The results show the existence of five clubs of convergence: one with a group of richer micro regions; one with a group of poor micro regions and three intermediates groups. The results also show that physical capital is more important than human capital in the explanation of the growth process. The second paper with title "The Brazilian Agricultural Sector: A Application of the Model of Common Cycles in the period os 1990 the 2005" analyzes the behavior of Agricultural Gdp, real exchange rate and the current account balance agricultural in Brazil during the period of 1990 to 2005. Cointegration techniques were used to identify a VAR system with common stochastic trends, and to investigate the system responses to transitories and permanent shocks. The tests had proven the existence of a common trend and two cycles between the variables. Variance decompositions indicates that transiotories shocks accont form most of the short and long run fluctuations in agricultural Gdp. It was found that permanent shocks explain most of the variance of the exchance rate and of the current account balance mainly in the long run. The third paper entitled "Forecast of the Rate of Growth of the Brazilian Agricultural Gdp: An Application of Models of Diffusion Index Linear and Non-Linear". This article applies the linear and non-linear diffusion index model with a threshold effect to forecast, one step ahead, the qyarterly growt rate of Brazilian Agricultural Gdp. These models are composed by common factor which allow a significant reduction in the number of the original explaining variables. After comparing forecast of these two models between themselves and to an AR model, used as benchmark, one comes to the conclusion that the linear model presents a small superiority, in terms of predictive efficiency, in relation to the nonlinear and AR models.

O complexo agroindustrial (CAI), como relação comercial e industrial envolvendo a cadeia produtiva de produtos de origem vegetal e animal, percebe que o insumo \"energia\" tem se tornado cada dia mais importante, ocupando lugar de destaque na avaliação de custos de produção. Neste contexto, o panorama do setor energético indica uma influência imediata na produção de riquezas advindas deste setor e seus setores correlatos. O CAI é hoje delimitado pelos seguintes segmentos: o das indústrias que fornecem para o setor agropecuário, as quais se entendem como as indústrias de bens de capital, defensivos, fertilizantes, sementes e matrizes, assim como de outros insumos; o do setor agropecuário em si; o das indústrias que fazem uso das matérias-primas do setor agropecuário, do qual se distinguem a agroindústria e a indústria de alimentos; e o do comércio e serviços de produtos agropecuários. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo utilizando técnicas multivariadas que relacionam os segmentos do CAI, suas demandas e consumos de energia, os indivíduos produtores e consumidores, os quais são aqui representados pelas unidades federativas (UF), e suas capacidades em produzir riquezas para o país, ou seja, suas respectivas contribuições ao produto interno bruto (PIB). A análise continua pelos energéticos envolvidos e por suas evoluções na produção e consumo, concluindo com as definições das correlações que apresentam uma visão sistêmica de como o panorama energético do país pode influenciar na cadeia do agronegócio, para dentro e fora da porteira das fazendas. / The agroindustrial complex (CAI), as industrial and commercial relationship involving the production chain of products of plant and animal origin, realizes that the input \"energy\" has become increasingly important, occupying a prominent place in the evaluation of production costs. In this context, the overview of the energy sector indicates an immediate influence on the production of wealth arising from this sector and its related industries. The CAI is now defined by the following segments: the industries that provide for the agricultural sector, which are understood as the industries of capital goods, pesticides, fertilizers, seeds and dies, as well as other inputs; the agricultural sector itself; the industries that make use of raw materials in the agricultural sector, which are distinguished agribusiness and the food industry; and the trade of agricultural products and services. This paper presents a study using multivariate techniques relating segments of the CAI, their demands and energy consumption, producers and consumers individuals, which are represented here by the federal units (UF), and its capacity to produce wealth for the country, ie their contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis continues by energy involved and their developments in production and consumption, concluding with the definitions of correlations that have a systemic view of how the energy landscape of the country can influence the agribusiness chain, inside and outside the gate of the farm.

This study, the role of small and medium sized enterprises for economic growth, was undertaken to find out how SME sub-sector in Nigeria has performed and its impact on the economic growth of the country. Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) is accepted globally as a tool for empowering the citizenry and economic growth. It has been associated with the rapid economic growth of countries in Asia and North America. In Nigeria efforts have been made by successive governments to reduce poverty and accelerate economic growth by increasing foreign direct investment, diversifying the economy, enacting policy frameworks which favour small business ownership and sometimes initiating employment and entrepreneurship programmes. Specifically this study tends to figure out: how profitable SME business is; whether infrastructural development could be attributed to the presence of SMEs; if significant number of people are employed within the SME sector; whether the SME market has attracted banks and financial institutions with increase in loans and incentives; whether there is increase in information Technology related businesses due to presence of SMEs and if there is need for the government to encourage and develop more opportunities for SMEs. A total of 200 SMEs were randomly selected from Matori, a city in Lagos state Nigeria. A questionnaire was constructed and distributed to the selected SMEs. The responses were collated and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) analytical tool. The study reveals that while SME businesses are profitable problems of policy inconsistency and poor infrastructural development continuously undermine the potentials of the market. Though the presence of SMEs has attracted infrastructural development, such developments in most cases are community effort or privately driven which limits the amount of developments achieved. For example their efforts could be limited to patching and maintaining existing bad road networks but not expanding or creating new road networks. The study also revealed that financial institutions like banks are attracted to areas where SMEs are established but getting funds through these institutions via loans has not been easy due to high interest rates and harsh conditions like types of collateral to present. It was also established that SMEs are good employers of labor but not without required support and facilities. SMEs will not engage more people to work for them when their businesses do not thrive. For their businesses to thrive they need government to encourage them and develop more opportunities such opportunities could be in terms of providing infrastructures like stable power supply and good transport networks (rails and roads), easy access to finance (low interest rates), stable government policies, reducing multiple taxations, ensuring availability and access to modern technology and raw materials locally etc. The result of the study confirms existing theories in the field which support the belief that SMEs remains a tool for economic growth in Nigeria. There are enormous potentials and opportunities for SMEs in Nigeria to mature and play the crucial role of economy growth, poverty reduction, employment and wealth creation. This will entail having the government provide required supports and addressing identified problems. While the SMEs also need to change their attitudes relating to entrepreneurship development, government needs to involve the SMEs in policy formulation and execution for maximum effect. There is also need to introduce entrepreneurial studies in our Universities in Nigeria in addition to emphasizing practical and technological studies at all levels of our educational system. / +2348032001534

An increasing amount of attention is paid by the media, and political and business leaders to national competitiveness indices. As globalisation increases and the difficulties of the financial crisis linger on, leaders look towards global benchmarks such as the World Economic Forum‟s Global Competitiveness Index to make policy and resource allocation decisions. Despite this emphasis on national competitiveness, how this translates to economic growth prospects is not well understood, and a universally accepted economic growth model continues to elude macroeconomists. The research seeks to understand whether a more detailed assessment of the Global Competitiveness Index‟s twelve competitiveness pillars can improve its explanatory power for economic growth, by investigating patterns of competitiveness performance from both static and dynamic perspectives. Data was collated over the period 2007-2013 for 118 countries. A hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to segment countries according to homogeneous competitiveness patterns, followed by stepwise multiple regression modelling on the total sample and the resulting clusters in order to assess impacts on adjusted R-squared values. Regressions were performed on stock and flow values for twelve country competitiveness variables. The results show that the cluster analysis coupled with the specified multiple regression models significantly improved the explanatory power of the selected competitiveness variables on economic growth, except for the least competitive countries, where further research is needed to uncover their true drivers of competitiveness. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / lmgibs2014 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted