The application of atmospheric circulation classifications in the interpretation of climate model outputs Mgr. Jan Stryhal Automated (computer-assisted) classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns (circulation classifications, for short) constitute a tool widely used in synoptic and dynamic climatology to study atmospheric circulation and its link to various atmospheric, environmental, and societal phenomena. The application of circulation classifications to output of dynamical models of the atmosphere has developed considerably since the pioneering studies about three decades ago, reflecting rapid development in statistics, computing technology, and-naturally-climatological research, increasingly more and more dependent on simulations of the atmosphere, facing the paradigm of anthropogenic climate change. An uncoordinated use of various statistical approaches to analyzing output of global climate models (GCM) or their various ensembles, and an arbitrary selection of circulation variables, spatial and temporal domains, and reference datasets, have contributed to a need for a comparative study, which would shed some light on the sensitivity of studies dealing with an intercomparison of circulation classifications in two datasets to subjective choices. The present thesis responds to this need...

With a nearly twice as strongly pronounced temperature increase compared to that of the Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic is especially susceptible to global climate change. The effect of clouds on the Arctic warming is especially uncertain, which is caused by misrepresented cloud microphysical processes in atmospheric models. This thesis aims at employing a scale- and definition-aware comparison of models and observations and will propose changes how to better parameterize Arctic clouds in atmospheric models. In the first part of this thesis, ECHAM6, which is the atmospheric component of the MPI-ESM global climate model, is compared to spaceborne lidar observations of clouds from the CALIPSO satellite. This comparison shows that ECHAM6 overestimates Arctic low-level, liquid containing clouds over snow- and ice-covered surfaces, which consequently leads to an overestimated amount of radiative energy received by the surface. Using sensitivity studies, it is shown that the probable cause of the model biases in cloud amount and phase is related to misrepresented cloud microphysical parameterization (i.e., parameterization of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process and of the cloud cover scheme) in ECHAM6. By revising those processes, a better representation of cloud amount and cloud phase is achieved, which helps to more accurately simulated the amount of radiative energy received by the Arctic in ECHAM6. The second part of this thesis will focus on a comparison of kilometer-scale simulation with the ICON model to aircraft observations from the ACLOUD campaign that took place in May/June 2017 over the sea ice-covered Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard, Norway. By comparing measurements of solar and terrestrial surface irradiances during ACLOUD flights to the respective quantities in ICON, it is shown that the model systematically overestimates the transmissivity of the mostly liquid clouds during the campaign. This model bias is traced back to the way cloud condensation nuclei get activated into cloud droplets in the two-moment, bulk microphysical scheme used. By parameterizing subgrid-scale vertical motion as a function of turbulent kinetic energy, a more realistic CCN activation into cloud droplets is achieved. This consequently results in an improved representation of cloud optical properties in the ICON simulations. Furthermore, the results of two studies to which contributions have been made during the Ph.D. will be summarized. In Petersik et al. 2018, the impact of subgrid-scale variability in clear-sky relative humidity on hygroscopic growth of aerosols in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 has been explored. It was shown that the revised parameterization of hygroscopic growth of aerosols resulted in a stronger swelling of aerosol particles, which consequently causes an increased backscattering of solar radiation. In the study of Costa-Suros et al. 2019, it is explored whether it is possible to detect and attribute aerosol-cloud interactions in large-eddy simulation over Germany. It was shown that an increase in cloud droplet number concentration could be attributed to an increased aerosol load, while such an attribution was not possible for other cloud micro- and macrophysical variables.

Les services écosystémiques (SE) désignent les bénéfices fournis par les écosystèmes à la société. En France, la législation cherche à les intégrer dans les études d’impact environnemental avec la promulgation de la Loi pour la reconquête de la biodiversité, de la nature et des paysages (2016). Pour ce faire, il est nécessaire de développer des méthodes de terrain d’estimation des SE. C’est dans ce cadre qu’une collaboration entre le Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine et le bureau d’études EGIS Environnement a vu le jour, afin de répondre à la question : comment quantifier les SE à l’échelle locale ?Pour cela, nous avons étudié deux SE de régulation régulièrement évoqués dans le contexte du changement global. Le service de pollinisation est essentiel pour l’alimentation humaine et est au cœur de l’actualité de par les déclins des populations d’insectes pollinisateurs. Le SE de régulation du climat global par la séquestration de carbone par les écosystèmes est d’intérêt majeur en regard des changements climatiques récents et annoncés.Nous avons suivi les quatre étapes du développement d’un protocole. Premièrement, pour le SE de pollinisation entomophile qui possède de nombreuses définitions dans la littérature, nous avons établi par une revue bibliographique un cadre conceptuel afin de définir le SE de pollinisation et d’identifier les indicateurs et leurs méthodes de mesures. Nous avons choisi pour la suite d’adopter la définition du SE de pollinisation comme la capacité de l’écosystème à soutenir la pollinisation entomophile, i.e. la présence d’insectes pollinisateurs. Deuxièmement, nous avons abordé la question du choix des indicateurs pour l’estimation de ce SE. En effet, la capacité du SE de pollinisation peut être estimée par des indicateurs directs, liés à la présence des insectes pollinisateurs sur la parcelle, et des indicateurs indirects, liés aux ressources d’alimentation et de nidification sur la parcelle d’étude et dans le paysage. Nous avons comparé les mesures de ces deux types d’indicateurs estimés en vergers et en prairies. Les objectifs étaient de tester la cohérence entre ces deux types d’indicateurs pour le SE de pollinisation et la possibilité d’une simplification du protocole d’estimation en la basant uniquement sur des indicateurs indirects. Les indicateurs indirects n’expliquaient pas une part suffisante de la variabilité observée dans les mesures d’abondance et de richesse des pollinisateurs pour permettre simplification du protocole.Troisièmement, nous avons cherché à simplifier le protocole d’estimation du SE de la régulation du climat global par la mesure des stocks de carbone en prairies et en forêts. Pour cela, nous avons comparé les estimations obtenues par des protocoles simplifiés à celles obtenues par un protocole plus complet et mesuré les incertitudes causées par ces simplifications. Le protocole d’estimation a pu ainsi être simplifié pour les deux compartiments de l’écosystème stockant le plus de carbone : la biomasse aérienne en forêt et le carbone organique du sol. Enfin, afin de tester l’applicabilité du protocole simplifié d’estimation du SE de régulation du climat global, nous l’avons testé sur des parcelles de zones humides, des écosystèmes stockant une grande quantité de carbone. Ces parcelles ont été placées dans un modèle d’états-et-transitions afin de tester si les mesures de gestion peuvent affecter les stocks de carbone des zones humides. Les actions de gestion sur la biomasse aérienne changeaient les stocks de carbone entre les zones humides herbacées et forestières. Le stock de carbone organique du sol, stock majeur dans les zones humides, ne différait pas entre les différents états étudiés, reflétant la difficulté d’agir sur ce compartiment.Cette étude montre que le développement méthodologique pour la quantification de SE sur le terrain peut mener à des protocoles simples et fiables mais que le processus de développement est différent selon les SE abordés. / Ecosystem services are benefits supplied by ecosystem to human societies. In France, recent legislation aims to include ecosystem service in environmental impact studies with the enactment of the Law for the recovery of biodiversity, nature and landscapes (2016). To do so, it is necessary to develop field methods for ecosystem service estimation. In this setting, a collaboration was established between the Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine and the environmental consultancy EGIS Environnement to answer the following question: how can ecosystem services be quantified at local scale?We studied two ecosystem services often cited in the global change context. The pollination service is essential for human food production. Given worldwide pollinator declines it is at the centre of scientific, citizen and political concerns. The service of global climate regulation by carbon sequestration by ecosystems is of major interest given the recent and coming climate changes.We investigated four key steps for developing a field protocol. First, the ecosystem service of entomophilous pollination has numerous definitions in the scientific literature. Thus, based on a literature review we built a conceptual framework for defining the pollination service and identifying quantifiable indicators and their measurement methods. We chose to define the pollination service as the ecosystem capacity to support entomophilous pollination, i.e. pollinating insect presence. Second, we worked on indicator selection for the pollination service estimation. Pollination capacity can be estimated through direct indicators linked to pollinator presence on the plot and through indirect indicators linked to feeding and nesting resources in the plot and in the landscape. We compared measures of these two types of indicators within orchards and grasslands. Our aims were to test consistency between both indicator types for the pollination service and the possibility of protocol simplification based on indirect indicators. Indirect indicators did not explain enough of the observed variability in pollinator abundance and richness to allow a protocol simplification.Third, we tried to simplify the estimation protocol of the ecosystem service of global climate regulation from measures of carbon stocks in grasslands and forests. We compared estimations obtained by simplified protocols to estimations obtained by a more complete protocol. We also quantified the uncertainties caused by these simplifications. The estimation protocol could be simplified for the two most important carbon pools: aboveground biomass in forests and soil organic carbon. Finally, to test the applicability of the simplified protocol of carbon stock estimations, we applied it on wetland plots. These plots were organized following in a state-and-transition model to test whether management decisions are likely to affect wetland carbon stocks. Management actions on aboveground biomass changed carbon stocks between herbaceous and forested wetland. Soil organic carbon, the major carbon stock in wetlands, was unchanged between the different studied stats, illustrating the difficulty to manage soil carbon stocks in the short term.This study shows that method development for field quantification of ecosystem service can lead to simple and reliable protocols. However, the development process is different for each ecosystem service.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(理学) / 乙第13202号 / 論理博第1561号 / 新制||理||1635(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科・地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 塩谷 雅人, 准教授 重 尚一, 教授 秋友 和典 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

No description available.

Until now, the lack of time-continuous, terrestrial paleoenvironmental data from the Pleistocene Arctic has made model simulations of past interglacials difficult to assess. Here, we compare climate simulations of four warm interglacials at Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 1 (9ka), 5e (127 ka), 11c (409 ka), and 31 (1072 ka) with new proxy climate data recovered from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Russia. Climate reconstructions of the Mean Temperature of the Warmest Month (MTWM) indicate conditions 2.1, 0.5 and 3.1 ºC warmer than today during MIS 5e, 11c, and 31 respectively. While the climate model captures much of the observed warming during each interglacial, largely in response to boreal summer orbital forcing, the extraordinary warmth of MIS 11c relative to the other interglacials in the proxy records remain difficult to explain. To deconvolve the contribution of multiple influences on interglacial warming at Lake El’gygytgyn, we isolated the influence of vegetation, sea ice, and circum-Arctic land ice feedbacks on the climate of the Beringian interior. Vegetation-land surface feedback simulations during all four interglacials show expanding boreal forest cover with increasing summer insolation intensity. A deglaciated Greenland is shown to have a minimal effect on Northeast Asian temperature during the warmth of stage 11c and 31 (Melles et al., 2012). A prescribed enhancement of oceanic heat transport into the Arctic ocean has some effect on Beringian climate, suggesting intrahemispheric coupling seen in comparisons between Lake El’gygytgyn and Antarctic sediment records might be related to linkages between Antarctic ice volume and ocean circulation. The exceptional warmth of MIS 11c remains enigmatic however, relative to the modest orbital and greenhouse gas forcing during that interglacial. Large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during Plio-Pleistocene glaciation causes a substantial decrease in Mean Temperature of the Coldest Month (MTCM) and Mean Annual Precipitation (PANN) causing significant Arctic aridification. Aridification and frigid conditions can be linked to a combination of mechanical forcing from the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets on mid-tropospheric westerly flow and expanded sea-ice cover causing albedo-enhanced feedback.

L'augmentation du bilan de masse en surface de la calotte polaire Antarctique causée par celle des chutes de neige est la seule contribution négative à l'élévation du niveau de mer attendue dans le courant du 21ème siècle dans le cadre du réchauffement climatique causé par les activités humaines. La régionalisation dynamique de projections climatiques issues de modèles couplés océans-atmosphère est la méthode la plus couramment utilisée pour estimer les variations futures du climat Antarctique. Néanmoins, de nombreuses incertitudes subsistent suite à l'application de ces méthodes, en particulier en raison des biais conséquents sur les conditions océaniques de surface et sur la circulation atmosphérique aux hautes latitudes de l’Hémisphère Sud dans les modèles couplés.Dans la première partie de ce travail, différentes méthodes de corrections de biais des conditions océanique de surface ont été évaluées. Les résultats ont permis de retenir une méthode quantile-quantile pour la température de surface de l'océan et une méthode d'analogues pour la concentration en glace de mer. En raison de la forte sensibilité du climat future Antarctique aux variations de couverture de glace de mer dans l'Océan Austral, les conditions océaniques issues de deux modèles couplés, NorESM1-M et MIROC-ESM, présentant des diminutions d’étendues de glace de mer hivernales largement différentes (-14 et -45%) ont été retenues. Les conditions océaniques provenant d'un scénario RCP8.5 de ces deux modèles ont été corrigées afin de forcer le modèle atmosphérique global ARPEGE.Par la suite, ARPEGE a été utilisé dans une configuration grille-étirée, permettant d'atteindre une résolution horizontale de 40 kilomètres sur l'Antarctique. Il a été contraint aux limites par les conditions océaniques de surface observées et celles issues des simulations historiques des modèles NorESM1-M et MIROC-ESM pour la période récente (1981-2010). Pour la fin du 21ème siècle (2071-2100), les forçages océaniques originaux et corrigés issus de ces deux derniers modèles ont été utilisés. L'évaluation pour le présent a permis de mettre en évidence, la capacité du modèle ARPEGE de reproduire le climat et le bilan de masse de surface Antarctique ainsi que la persistance d'erreurs substantielles sur la circulation atmosphérique y compris dans la simulation forcée par les conditions océaniques observées. Pour le climat futur, l'utilisation des forçages océaniques MIROC-ESM corrigés a engendré des augmentations supplémentaires significatives à l'échelle continentale pour les températures hivernales et le bilan de masse annuel.Enfin, ARPEGE a été corrigé en ligne, à l'aide d'une climatologie des termes de rappel du modèle issus d'une simulation guidée par les réanalyses climatologiques. L'application de cette méthode sur la période récente a très largement amélioré la modélisation de la circulation atmosphérique et du climat de surface Antarctique. L'application pour le climat futur suggère des augmentations de températures (+0.7 à +0.9 C) et de précipitations (+6 à +9%) supplémentaires par rapport à celles issues des scénarios réalisés sans correction atmosphérique. Le forçage de modèles climatiques régionaux ou de dynamique glaciaire avec les scénarios ARPEGE corrigés est à explorer au regard des impacts potentiellement importants pour la calotte Antarctique et sa contribution à l'élévation du niveau des mers. / The increase of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface mass balance due to rise in snowfall is the only expected negative contribution to sea-level rise in the course of the 21st century within the context of global warming induced by mankind. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections provided by coupled ocean-atmosphere models is the most commonly used method to assess the future evolution of the Antarctic climate. Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain in the application of this method, particularly because of large biases in coupled models for oceanic surface conditions and atmospheric large-scale circulation at Southern Hemisphere high latitudes.In the first part of this work, different bias-correction methods for oceanic surface conditions have been evaluated. The results have allowed to select a quantile-quantile method for sea surface temperature and an analog method for sea-ice concentration. Because of the strong sensitivity of Antarctic surface climate to the variations of sea-ice extents in the Southern Ocean, oceanic surface conditions provided by two coupled models, NorESM1-M and MIROC-ESM, showing clearly different trends (respectively -14 and -45%) on winter sea-ice extent have been selected. Oceanic surface conditions of the ``business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5) coming from these two models have been corrected in order to force the global atmospheric model ARPEGE.In the following, ARPEGE has been used in a stretched-grid configuration, allowing to reach an horizontal resolution around 40 kilometers on Antarctica. For historical climate (1981-2010), the model was driven by observed oceanic surface conditions as well as by those from MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M historical simulation. For late 21st century (2071-2100), original and bias corrected oceanic conditions from the latter two model have been used. The evaluation for present climate has evidenced excellent ARPEGE skills for surface climate and surface mass balance as well as large remaining errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation even when using observed oceanic surface conditions. For future climate, the use of bias-corrected MIROC-ESM oceanic forcings has yielded an additionally significant increase in winter temperatures and in annual surface mass balance at the continent-scale.In the end, ARPEGE has been corrected at run-time using a climatology of tendency errors coming from an ARPEGE simulation driven by climate reanalyses. The application of this method for present climate has dramatically improved the modelling of the atmospheric circulation and antarctic surface climate. The application for the future suggests significant additional warming (~ 0.7 to +0.9 C) and increase in precipitation (~ +6 to +9 %) with respect to the scenarios realized without atmospheric bias correction. Driving regional climate models or ice dynamics model with corrected ARPEGE scenarios is to explored in regards of the potentially large-impacts on the Antarctic ice-sheet and its contribution to sea-level rise.

A concentração de CO2 na atmosfera tem aumentado progressivamente nos últimos anos. Este aumento é atribuído em sua maior parte à ação humana e à atividades como mudanças no uso da terra, desflorestamento e uso de combustíveis fósseis. É previsto que as mudanças do clima decorrentes desse aumento do CO2 irão impactar de forma significativa na agricultura. A cana-de-açúcar é uma planta de grande importância na economia mundial devido ao seu uso na indústria sucroalcoleira. Neste sentido, conhecer como o aumento de CO2 irá impactar nesta cultura é de importância estratégica para o país e para o mundo. Experimentos com cana-de-açúcar cultivada em elevado CO2 têm demonstrado aumento na taxa de fotossíntese, biomassa e no conteúdo de sacarose. Especula-se que a maior taxa de fotossíntese observada nesses experimentos é regulada por meio da taxa de transporte de elétrons, uma vez que genes relacionados a este processo foram observados com maior expressão em alto CO2. No entanto, os mecanismos que envolvem este processo ainda são desconhecidos. Com o objetivo de compreender os mecanismos envolvidos na regulação e funcionamento da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar, este trabalho apresenta dados sobre o ciclo diário de fotossíntese e carboidratos não estruturais, bem como dados fisiológicos, bioquímicos e de expressão gênica de plantas cultivadas em atmosfera enriquecida de CO2. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a regulação da fotossíntese em alto CO2 é dada pela manutenção do crescimento que esta condição proporciona às plantas, uma vez que o cultivo no vaso limita o crescimento na raiz e leva a um possível déficit hídrico. Genes e proteínas relacionados direta ou indiretamente ao processo de transporte de elétrons foram encontrados com expressão diferencial, corroborando os dados obtidos nas medidas in vivo. Por outro lado, os dados mostram pouca variação no sistema de captação de CO2, indicando que a principal regulação da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar ocorre por meio do sistema de captura de luz. Foram observados proteínas e genes relacionados com o conteúdo de açúcares e com o crescimento, que podem ser pontos importantes de regulação da fotossíntese em cana-de-açúcar. Com os dados obtidos foi possível inferir que o aumento do CO2 na atmosfera irá beneficiar as plantas de cana-de-açúcar, sendo que pontos de regulação descritos neste trabalho têm potencial de utilização como ferramentas que auxiliem na determinação de cultivares mais produtivos. / The atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing progressively along the last years. This increase is attributed mainly to humans action and to land use changes, deforestation and fossil fuel burning. Is it predicted that the global climate changes resulting from CO2 increase will impact significantly agriculture. Sugarcane is very important for worlds economy due to its use for sugar and alcohol industry. In this way, the knowledge of how sugarcane will respond at elevated CO2 is important to design strategies for biofuel production and use in Brazil and in the world. In experiments with sugarcane grown under elevated CO2 sugarcane plants have shown an increase in photosynthesis, biomass and sucrose content. It was then speculated that the higher photosynthesis observed in these experiments might be regulated by electron transport rates, since genes related to this process were observed with higher expression in elevated CO2. However, the mechanisms that are related with this process are still unknown. The aim of this thesis was to understand the mechanisms related in the regulation and functioning of photosynthesis in sugarcane in elevated CO2. This work presents data about diurnal cycle of photosynthesis and non structural carbohydrates, physiology, biochemistry and gene expression. The results show that photosynthesis regulation in elevated CO2 is linked with the plant growth that remains under these conditions, since the pots cause roots growth limitations and leads a possibly water deficit. Genes and proteins were found that are related directly or indirectly to electron transport process as seen from differential expression. This corroborates the data obtained from in vivo measurements. On the other hand, our data show little variation in CO2 capture system, indicating that the mainly regulations of photosynthesis in sugarcane occurs due changes in light capture system. Proteins and genes have been observed that associated with sugar content and growth. These might be key for understanding regulation of photosynthesis in sugarcane. With the data obtained it is possible to speculate that elevation of CO2 will benefit the sugarcane plants in the future. Also, the regulation points described in this work have potential to be used as tools to help finding more productive cultivars.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:38:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 HellenCLB_DISSERT.pdf: 1274583 bytes, checksum: bff1e98a159fa77fea207af042cb90dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04-18 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico / In recent years, much has been discussed about global climate changes (GCCs), popularly known as global warming. The scientific evidences point out to the influence of human actions for its drastic intensification. Therefore, studies of the psychological aspects involved become relevant. This study aimed at the investigation of the views of adolescents concerning GCCs, and the possible relations between those views and their pro-ecological commitment. Such commitment is measured by willingness for engagement in pro-environmental behaviors; environmentalism attitudes, like ecocentric and anthropocentric; consideration of future consequences; and ecological worldviews. Participants were 348 adolescents who answered a questionnaire containing questions about socio-demographic data, open questions about the practice of environmental care, and about GCCs, and the scales of Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Environmentalism, the Consideration of Future Consequences and the Ecological Worldviews assessment scale. From the inter-relationships between variables, procedures carried out by means of descriptive and correlacional statistics, it was observed that 55% of teenagers said that they did not engage in actions of environmental care, which was associated with apathyanthropocentric, immediatism, and individualism. The consideration of future consequences joined the practice of environmental care, corroborating evidence from the literature. It was evident that views concerning GCCs were superficial; adolescents perceive it as a generic environmental problem, and are confused with other problems such as pollution. This study found no association between views about GCCs and the indicators of pro-ecological commitment, perhaps due to the conceptual confusion about the subject. However, the lack of environmental care actions and other indicators of non-commitment (apathy-anthropocentric, individualism and immediatism) were associated with conceptually poor or incomplete responses (with no indication of cause, consequence or responsibility for the problem), demonstrating diminished knowledge and the failure to consider these issues / Nos ?ltimos anos, muito tem se falado a respeito das mudan?as clim?ticas globais (MCGs), popularmente conhecidas como aquecimento global. As evid?ncias cient?ficas ressaltam a influ?ncia das a??es humanas para sua dr?stica intensifica??o. Diante disto, estudos de aspectos psicol?gicos relacionados ? tem?tica ganham relev?ncia. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo investigar o posicionamento de adolescentes diante das MCGs, e as poss?veis rela??es deste com o seu compromisso pr?-ecol?gico. Tal compromisso tem como indicadores, nesta investiga??o: o cuidado ambiental auto-relatado, ambientalismos ecoc?ntrico e antropoc?ntrico, a considera??o de conseq??ncias futuras, e as vis?es ecol?gicas de mundo. Participaram do estudo 348 adolescentes, que responderam a um question?rio, contendo quest?es sobre dados s?cio-demogr?ficos, quest?es abertas sobre a pr?tica de cuidado ambiental, e sobre MCGs, e as escalas de Ambientalismo Ecoc?ntrico e Antropoc?ntrico, de Considera??o de Conseq??ncias Futuras e de avalia??o das Vis?es Ecol?gicas de Mundo. A partir das inter-rela??es entre vari?veis, feitas por meio de procedimentos estat?sticos descritivos e correlacionais, observou-se que 55% dos adolescentes afirmaram n?o praticar a??es de cuidado ambiental, o que se associou ? apatia-antropoc?ntrica, ao imediatismo, e ao individualismo. J? a considera??o de futuro se associou ?s pr?ticas de cuidado ambiental, corroborando evid?ncias da literatura. Evidenciou-se que o posicionamento diante das MCGs ? superficial; os adolescentes as percebem como um problema ambiental gen?rico, e as confundem com outros problemas, como a polui??o. Este estudo n?o encontrou associa??o entre o posicionamento diante das MCGs e indicadores de compromisso pr?-ecol?gico, talvez devido ? confus?o conceitual a respeito do tema. Todavia, a aus?ncia de pr?tica de cuidado e os demais indicadores de n?o-compromisso (apatia-antropoc?ntrica, individualismo e imediatismo) se associaram ?s respostas mais conceitualmente pobres, ou incompletas (sem indica??o de causa, conseq??ncia ou de respons?vel pelo problema), evidenciando, al?m do conhecimento emba?ado, a n?o considera??o destas quest?es

Global climate change is anticipated to raise the overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. China, a rapid developing nation with the world’s largest population, has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past century, with an annual increase in air temperature by 0.5–0.8°C. While increasing evidence is suggesting that climate change has posed significant health risks to Chinese population, including heat-related mortality, the extent to which climate change will affect future mortality and the sources of uncertainty in projecting prospective changes in mortality remain unexplored. This working-in-progress study aims at estimating excess future premature deaths in large urban areas in China resulting from potential increases in temperature under climate change and investigating sources of uncertainty. We include 51 large Chinese cities in this study, which approximately one third of the total population in China. We use an integrated approach, which combines temperature predictions from climate models, local temperature-mortality relationship and population forecasting, to project the future excess mortality attributed to higher temperature during warm season. The poster presents the results of predicting temperature change during 2040-2050 relative to the baseline period 1950-2000 in the 51 cities selected. We ensemble outputs from 19 climate models used in the IPCC 5th Report, including outputs related to all four AR5 emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5).