In this thesis, we look at a number of methods to forecast success (winners and losers), both of single games and playoff series (best-of-seven games) in the sport of ice hockey, more specifically within the National Hockey League (NHL). Our findings indicate that there exists a theoretical upper bound, which seems to hold true for all sports, that makes prediction difficult. In the first part of this thesis, we look at predicting success of individual games to learn which of the two teams will win or lose. We use a number of traditional statistics (published on the league’s website and used by the media) and performance metrics (used by Internet hockey analysts; they are shown to have a much higher correlation with success over the long term). Despite the demonstrated long term success of performance metrics, it was the traditional statistics that had the most value to automatic game prediction, allowing our model to achieve 59.8% accuracy. We found it interesting that regardless of which features we used in our model, we were not able to increase the accuracy much higher than 60%. We compared the observed win% of teams in the NHL to many simulated leagues and found that there appears to be a theoretical upper bound of approximately 62% for single game prediction in the NHL. As one game is difficult to predict, with a maximum of accuracy of 62%, then pre- dicting a longer series of games must be easier. We looked at predicting the winner of the best-of-seven series between two teams using over 30 features, both traditional and advanced statistics, and found that we were able to increase our prediction accuracy to almost 75%. We then re-explored predicting single games with the use of pre-game textual reports written by hockey experts from http://www.NHL.com using Bag-of-Word features and sentiment analysis. We combined these features with the numerical data in a multi-layer meta-classifiers and were able to increase the accuracy close to the upper bound

The effect of striking compliance in ice hockey impacts, and its influence on dynamic response and brain tissue strain was investigated in this study. In hockey, players can experience a broad range of striking/surface compliance during a head impact, from the stiff ice surface to highly compliant player collisions. An increase in striking compliance has been shown to extend the duration of an impact that is associated with an increase in risk of sustaining brain injuries. Three striking caps of low, medium, and high compliance were used to impact a helmeted 50th percentile Hybrid III male headform attached to an unbiased neckform. Each level of compliance was used to impact five high risk locations at three different velocities, representative of head impact scenarios in ice hockey. The dependent variables, peak resultant linear accelerations and peak resultant rotational acceleration as well as MPS, were analyzed using a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) to determine if there were significant differences between the three controlled variables. The results demonstrate a significant effect of compliance, over the influence of velocity and acceleration. Conditions of low impact compliance resulted in higher response values compared to impacts of increased compliance. That being said, high compliance conditions remained in the range of concussion risk, even at the lowest velocity. The use of brain tissue modeling, compared to dynamic response alone, demonstrated an elevated risk of brain injury as a result of extended impact durations. Impact compliance in hockey is a factor that has not been considered when designing and testing helmet technology. The results of this study demonstrate that compliance is a determining factor in producing brain injury, and should be incorporated into helmet standard testing to mitigate risk. The results of this study have implications on brain injury risk that extend beyond the impacting scenarios of ice hockey. The results can be extrapolated to any contact sport that includes impacting scenarios against varied impacting compliances such as football and rugby.

The North American ice hockey world has come to realise that concussions are a major problem and a threat to the sport and to the National Hockey League (NHL). The media coverage of the concussions suffered by several NHL stars and of the scientific advancements in the detection and long-term effects of concussions has intensified over the last 20 years. A discourse analysis of Canadian newspaper coverage of concussions in the NHL in 1997-1999 and 2010-2012 focusing on the production of discursive objects and subjects reveals two important discourses. On the one hand, emerging objects of the discourses of blame and responsibility for the concussions in the NHL gained prominence in the later timeframe, especially blame on the NHL, the rulebook and hockey’s violent and risk-taking culture. On the other hand, a shift in reporting saw the emergence of a new subject position for the concussed hockey player, that of a frail and vulnerable subject. More NHL players are covered as ‘suffering’ subjects concerned with both physical pain and the mental health problems associated to concussions, rather than merely as athletes. Indeed, the impact of concussions on the personal lives of players is now an object of discourses that also produce the NHL player as a family member. Finally, former hockey players’ stories who have suffered serious concussions are recounted as a cautionary tale, opposing early retirement as a result of health issues to persistence in playing despite such health concerns.

The purpose of this study was as follows: 1. To determine if the recovery heart rate of ice hockey players is affected by elevation of the legs; 2. To determine the subjective recovery time and to calculate the correlation between subjective and objective recovery times; 3. To determine the heart rate at four and one-half minutes after exercise. Eight of an initial twelve members of the University of British Columbia Varsity Ice Hockey Team, ranging in age from twenty to twenty-seven years, participated in the study. Age, weight, height and position played were obtained for all subjects. Through radio telemetry, in conjunction with an electrocardioscribe and a heart rate monitor, the following data was obtained: a) resting heart rate b) terminal heart rate c) recovery heart rate d) recovery half-time e) post-exercise recovery rate f) subjective recovery time Each subject was required to skate six times: three trials as a control subject, which recovered in normal sitting position, and three times as an experimental subject, which recovered in the recumbent position with the legs raised on a bench twenty inches high. Reliability measurements performed using the Pearson Product-Moment Method resulted in an r = 0.420 for resting heart rates, and an r = 0.649 for terminal heart rates. A correlation between recovery half-times and the subjective recovery times for each of the six trials was calculated. A "t" test for correlated samples was performed between the means of the trials of the control group and between the means of the trials of the experimental group recovery half-times. A "t" test was then performed to determine the significance of the difference between the mean of the means of the recovery half-times of the control and experimental groups. A t value of 2.79, significant at the .05 level of confidence was found. Finally a test of significance was performed on the post-exercise recovery heart rates of the control and experimental groups. On the basis of the statistical analysis and with respect to the small sample studied, the following conclusions appear warranted: 1. Elevation of the legs significantly reduced the recovery time at the .05 level of confidence. 2. The reliabilities of resting and terminal heart rates were too low to be of significant value. 3. The subjects were not able to predict, with any degree of accuracy, when they had recovered sufficiently to begin another skating period. 4. Elevation of the legs and normal sitting produced no significant difference in the heart rates at the end of the four and one-half minute recovery period. / Education, Faculty of / Curriculum and Pedagogy (EDCP), Department of / Graduate

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Thesis (Ed.D.)--Boston University / The purpose of this study was to gain an in-depth understanding of selected psycho-social factors associated with the gold medal winning peak performance of the 1998 Women's Olympic Ice Hockey Team. These psycho-social factors were grouped into six specific purposes: cohesion and coaching, team confidence, team-specific ideal performance states, individual confidence, individual task-specific ideal performance states, Olympic stress, and coping methods. In-depth interviews using a two-part interview guide were conducted with all 20 team members. Hierarchical content analysis procedures were used to analyze the interview data. Method triangulation in the form of quantitative instruments, source triangulation, analyst triangulation and member checks were utilized to support the credibility of the interview data. Results showed that the team was highly cohesive and confident. Primary sources of cohesion were the commitment to a common goal, mutual trust and acceptance, and coaching actions. Cohesion was considered to contribute significantly to performance. Sources of confidence were performance accomplishments, coaching, cohesion and perceived readiness. The team reported a very strong relationship with the head coach, who was considered highly effective. Collectively, the team did experience task-specific, ideal peliormance states at various times in selected games at the Olympics. On an individual level , athletes reported high confidence based on peliormance accomplishments, constructive feedback, role clarity, and effective preparation. Due to their preparation the athletes experienced few stressors and coped effectively with them. lndi vidually, the athletes also experienced ideal peliormance states during selected games at the Olympics. However, these states were fragile and not present for the entire duration of a game. The description of taskspecific, ideal peliormance states, collectively as well as individually, matched Csikszentmihalyi's (1990) theoretical model of flow. Unambiguous feedback was a particularly salient flow dimension for these team sport athletes. From a team development perspective, the team achieved the performing stage of its development at the Olympics characterized by high cohesion and confidence, role clarity, acceptance, and commitment as well as strong leadership and ideal peliormance states. Strength and limitations as well as practical implication of these findings with regards to preparing the team for 2002 were discussed.

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