CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de NÃvel Superior / Essa dissertaÃÃo à composta por dois artigos, dos quais foi feito o uso de dados e metodologias distintas. O primeiro, intitulado âExiste relaÃÃo entre os fatores socioeconÃmicos e a taxa de homicÃdios no Brasil?â, tem como objeto de estudo analisar se existe relaÃÃo entre os fatores socioeconÃmicos e a taxa de homicÃdios no Brasil, no perÃodo compreendido entre 2004 e 2011. Foram utilizados dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de DomicÃlios - PNADs - do Instituto de Pesquisa EconÃmica Aplicada - IPEA - e do MinistÃrio da SaÃde. Enquanto procedimento metodolÃgico fez uso de dados em painel com as estimaÃÃes pelos MÃnimos Quadrados Generalizados (GLS), proposto por Greene (2003). Os resultados indicaram que, no Brasil, os fatores socioeconÃmicos fazem parte dos principais condicionantes das elevadas taxas de criminalidade registradas nos anos em observaÃÃo. A urbanizaÃÃo pode estar contribuindo para expansÃo dos homicÃdios, o que demanda maiores investimentos em seguranÃa pÃblica. Demonstrou, ainda, a importÃncia da educaÃÃo como ferramenta no combate e prevenÃÃo ao crime e revelou que o nÃvel de pobreza nem sempre se traduz em mais criminalidade, mas eleva a probabilidade de que indivÃduos privados de renda venham a cometer crimes. AlÃm disso, mostrou que o nÃvel de renda tem um contributo maior para tal realidade devido à utilidade esperada na execuÃÃo de crimes. O segundo artigo, intitulado âA pobreza multidimensional na ParaÃba via abordagem das necessidades bÃsicas e das capacitaÃÃesâ, foi feito com base em dados anuais da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de DomicÃlios (PNAD) de 2006 a 2013 e mensurou as dimensÃes da pobreza no estado, por meio da construÃÃo de indicador global e individual das dimensÃes. Para tanto, fez uso da metodologia de Bourguignon e Chakravarty (2003), a qual apresenta uma forma alternativa de medir a multidimensionalidade da pobreza. Os principais resultados sinalizaram que a populaÃÃo paraibana sofre de privaÃÃes, principalmente nos funcionamentos, como o acesso ao ensino primÃrio, fundamental e mÃdio; aos serviÃos de acesso à comunicaÃÃo e informaÃÃo, as condiÃÃes de moradia, saÃde e trabalho. Verificou-se tambÃm uma reduÃÃo das privaÃÃes nas seis dimensÃes, bem como da proporÃÃo de pobres multidimensionais da populaÃÃo, de 27,78%, em 2006, para 22,49%, em 2013. Jà em relaÃÃo Ãs anÃlises isoladas das Ãreas urbanas e rurais, constatou-se que a pobreza foi mais intensa no meio rural. / This dissertation consists of two articles, which was made using data and different methodologies. The first, entitled "Is there a relationship between socioeconomic factors and the homicide rate in Brazil?", Has the object of study to examine whether there is a relationship between socioeconomic factors and the homicide rate in Brazil, in the period between 2004 and 2011. We used data from the National Survey by Household Sample Survey - PNAD - the Institute of Applied Economic Research - IPEA -. and the Ministry of Health While methodological procedure made use of panel data with the estimates by Generalized Least Squares (GLS), proposed by Greene (2003). The results indicated that in Brazil, socioeconomic factors are among the main determinants of high crime rates recorded in the years under observation. The urbanization may be contributing to expansion of homicides, which demand greater investment in public safety. It has also shown the importance of education as a tool in combating and preventing crime and revealed that the poverty level does not always translate into more crime, but increases the likelihood that private individuals income will commit crimes. Moreover, it showed that the level of income has a greater contribution to such a reality due to the expected utility in the execution of crimes. The second article, entitled "The multidimensional poverty in ParaÃba via basic needs approach and capabilities," was based on annual data from the National Sample Survey (PNAD) from 2006 to 2013 and measured the dimensions of poverty in the state , by constructing the global indicator and individual dimensions. For this purpose, we made use of Bourguignon methodology and Chakravarty (2003), which presents an alternative way of measuring the multidimensionality of poverty. The main results signaled that paraibana population suffers deprivation, particularly in runs, such as access to primary education, primary and secondary; services access to communication and information, housing conditions, health and work. There was also a reduction of deprivation in six dimensions, as well as the proportion of multidimensional poor population of 27.78% in 2006 to 22.49% in 2013. In relation to the isolated analysis of urban areas and rural, it was found that poverty was more intense in rural areas.

Le taux d’homicide est un bon indicateur de la violence générale dans un pays. De plus, il s’agit du crime le mieux mesuré car il est rare qu’un homicide passe inaperçu. De nombreux auteurs ont donc cherché à expliquer ce qui pouvait influencer la variation du taux d’homicide dans les pays du monde. Leurs résultats ont mis à jour certains prédicteurs qui influenceraient le taux d’homicide dans les pays du monde. Il s’agit notamment du niveau de vie mesuré à l’aide du PIB par habitant, de l’inégalité, mesuré à l’aide du coefficient GINI ou encore des facteurs démographiques. Ces facteurs criminogènes sont tous de niveau macroscopique sur lesquels il est difficile d’agir. Ce mémoire intégrera au modèle, en plus des prédicteurs déjà connus, des variables plus proximales (consommation d’alcool, de drogue, présence de criminalité organisée, corruption, taux de criminalité, etc.) afin de voir s’ils pourraient également influencer la variation du taux d’homicide. Cette étude se concentrera sur le taux d’homicide de 41 pays européens. Une sélection de nos variables sera effectuée à l’aide d’analyses bivariées (corrélation, corrélation partielle) avant d’intégrer les variables restantes dans plusieurs modèles de régression multiple qui permettra in fine d’isoler les variables ayant une réelle influence sur le taux d’homicide. Les résultats indiquent que les facteurs proximaux ont une réelle influence sur le taux d’homicide. En effet, non seulement deux variables proximales (l’abus de la consommation d’alcool, et le pourcentage de personne s’étant déclaré victime de cambriolage) sont, après avoir pris en considération de nombreuses variables de niveau macroscopique, significativement liées au taux d’homicide mais en plus, le fait d’intégrer ce type de variables dans un modèle de régression multiple fait augmenter la variance expliquée. Ces variables de type proximales ont donc une grande importance dans l’explication de la variation du taux d’homicide. / The homicide rate is a good indicator of the general violence in a country. Moreover, it is the best measured crime because it is rare that a homicide goes unnoticed. Many authors have therefore sought to explain what might influence the variations in homicide rates throughout the world. These include the standard of living measured by GDP per capita, inequality, measured by the GINI coefficient or demographic factors. Their results have revealed some predictors that could influence homicide rates. These criminogenic factors are all at a macroscopic level, where it is difficult to react. This thesis will integrate the model, in addition to known predictors, variables, which are proximal (alcohol and drug consumption, presence of organized crime, corruption, crime rate, etc.) to see if they could also influence the variation in homicide rates. This study will focus on the homicide rate from 41 European countries. A selection of our variables will be implemented using bivariate analysis (correlation, partial correlation) before joining the remaining variables in several multiple regression models that will ultimately isolate the variables that influence the real rate homicide. The results indicate that proximals factors have a real influence on homicide rates. After taking into consideration many variables at the macroscopic level, not only are the two proximal variables (abuse of alcohol, and the percentage of victim of burglary) significantly related to homicide rates, but incorporating such variables in a multiple regression model also increases explained variance. So, this proximal variables are very important in explaining the variation of homicide rates.

No description available.

De plus en plus d’études s’intéressent aux variations des taux d’homicides et de la criminalité à travers les villes. Ces dernières suggèrent que des facteurs sociaux, économiques et démographiques expliqueraient ces variations, comme le revenu national brut par habitant, les inégalité de revenus, la corruption, la consommation d’alcool, la taille des populations des villes, etc. Cependant, ces recherches ont été effectuées en Amérique du Nord majoritairement, et aucune ne s’est intéressée à ces variations à l’échelle mondiale. Ce mémoire analysera la variation des taux d’homicides à travers les grandes villes du monde en lien avec les prédicteurs déjà connus. Il intègrera en plus des données issues du site Numbeo.com sur la perception de la criminalité contre la personne et les bien, ainsi que le sentiment de sécurité le jour et la nuit. L’objectif est d’observer s’il existe des différences ou ressemblances au niveau des facteurs contributeurs des taux d’homicides des villes. La présente étude portera sur le taux d’homicide, la perception de la criminalité contre la personne et les biens et sur le sentiment de sécurité le jour et la nuit à travers 108 villes de la planète. L’objectif est d’identifier les principaux facteurs associés à la criminalité. Des analyses bivariées permettront de voir jusqu’à quel point ces variables se ressemblent, en plus de sélectionner les variables sociales, économiques et démographiques restantes à intégrer dans le modèle de régressions linéaires multiples. Les résultats des analyses multivariées indiquent que les inégalités sociales et la corruption sont les meilleurs prédicteurs des taux d’homicides, de la perception de la criminalité et du sentiment de sécurité. La corruption est ressortie plus forte concernant la perception de la criminalité et le sentiment de sécurité que les inégalités sociales comparées aux taux d’homicides. Ainsi, ces résultats établissent que les mêmes facteurs sont associés à la criminalité des villes comparées aux pays, même s’il existe quelques petites différences. / More and more studies focus on variations in homicide rates and crime across cities. These suggest that social, economic and demographic factors explain these variations, such as gross national income per capita, income inequality, corruption, alcohol consumption, cities population size, etc. However, these searches were mainly conducted in North America, and none were interested in these changes across the planet. This thesis will investigate homicide rates, in respect to known predictors, of the largest cities across the world. It will also incorporate data from Numbeo.com about crime perception against person and property as well as the feeling of safety during the day and night. This is done to observe if differences or similarities in the factors linked to homicide rates in cities exist. This study will focus on the homicide rate, the crime perception against person and property as well as the feeling of safety in 108 cities across the globe. The goal is to identify principle-contributing factors to crime. Bivariate analysis will determine to which degree these three variables share common area and further, which variables form the social, economic and demographic variables can be appropriately integrated into the linear multiple regressions analysis model. Multivariate analysis results indicate that social income inequalities and corruption are the strongest predictors of homicide rates, crime perception and safety feeling. Corruption emerged stronger on crime perception and feeling of safety than social income inequalities compared to homicide rate. Thus, these results indicate that the same factors are associated with crime in cities as in countries, although some small differences exist.

Qu’ils en soient les auteurs ou les victimes, les Afro-Américains ont toujours affiché un taux d’homicide largement supérieur à celui des Blancs aux États-Unis. La criminologie a toutefois bien documenté la convergence du taux d’homicide noir vers le taux d’homicide blanc au cours des dernières décennies. À cet effet, il est attesté que le taux d’homicide noir diminue de façon continuelle et de façon plus importante que le taux d’homicide blanc depuis les années 1990. Toutefois, peu de recherches ont examiné la situation depuis 2000. Cette recherche doctorale propose d’analyser la façon dont a évolué l'écart entre le taux d’homicide noir et blanc entre 2000 et 2018 en prenant pour comparaison les deux décennies précédentes. Les résultats permettent de conclure à la fin de la convergence entre taux d’homicide noir et blanc depuis 2000. L’écart entre ces deux taux recommence en effet à se creuser à partir de cette date et se révèle, de surcroît, en moyenne plus élevé que l’écart qui existait entre 1980 et 2000. Ici, une analyse de l'évolution de la part moyenne de foyers noirs et blancs appartenant aux catégories sociales les plus pauvres n’a pas permis d’expliquer de façon certaine cette évolution. Toutefois, l’analyse des écarts de revenus a permis de révéler que les États ayant vu leur ratio d’homicide s’accroître sont souvent les États où les écarts entre la part de foyers pauvres noirs et blancs sont les plus élevés. De fait, l’analyse montre que la situation économique des Noirs s’est dégradée depuis 2000 en comparaison des Blancs, attestant ainsi d’un retour général des inégalités, qu’elles soient criminelles ou économiques, entre Afro-Américains et Blancs depuis 2000. / Whether perpetrators or victims, African Americans have historically had a much higher homicide rate than Whites in the United States. Criminology, however, has well documented the convergence of the black homicide rate to the white homicide rate over the past several decades. To that end, there is evidence that the black homicide rate has been steadily declining by a greater amount than the white homicide rate since the 1990s. However, little research has examined the situation since 2000. This doctoral research proposes to analyze how the gap between the black and white homicide rate has changed between 2000 and 2018 using the previous two decades as a comparison. The results allow us to conclude that the convergence between black and white homicide rates has ended since 2000. The gap between these two rates starts to widen again from this date and is, moreover, on average higher than the gap that existed between 1980 and 2000. Here, an analysis of the evolution of the average share of black and white households belonging to the poorest social categories did not provide a definite explanation for this evolution. However, analysis of income differentials revealed that states with increasing homicide ratios are often the states with the highest differentials in the share of poor black and white households. Indeed, the analysis shows that the economic situation of blacks has worsened since 2000 compared to whites, attesting to a general return of inequality, whether criminal or economic, between African Americans and whites since 2000.