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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

En studie av hur aktiekursprediktioner för läkemedelsbolag påverkas av patentgodkännande : En kvantitativ analys genom ARIMA och ARIMAX / A study of how predictions for stock price in pharmaceutical companies is affected by patent approvals : A quantitative analysis using ARIMA and ARIMAX

Hill Anderberg, Camilla, Gustafson, Alice January 2021 (has links)
In this thesis we investigate whether the inclusion of an exogenous variable in the form of patentapproval can improve the ARIMA model's predictions for the pharmaceutical companyAstrazeneca. A point of departure for the study is the questioning of the efficient markethypothesis. When comparing data on patent date approval with stock exchange data for threepharmaceutical companies, it could be observed that share prices increased on the date ofapproval in 65 percent of the cases. This observed correlation combined with the fact that severalpapers have established that the stock market may not be efficient make it interesting to studywhether the value of a patent has been included in the stock price prior to approval date.To investigate this, an ARIMA and an ARIMAX model was estimated. The exogenous variable,which controls for patent approvals, was created by retrieving data from the EPO's databasePATSTAT. The retrieved data was then formatted into a dummy variable. The purpose ofincluding an exogenous variable is to investigate whether the market reacts to patent information.If the addition of the exogenous variable proves significant, the result is in conflict with theefficient market hypothesis.During the model selection, it was found that an ARIMA (4,1,2) was the superior model. Themodel was then compared with the corresponding ARIMAX model. When comparing themodels, it was found that the predictions of the ARIMAX model follow the observed datasomewhat better, but a t-test concluded that the improvement was not statistically significant.This implies that the value of the patent has already been included in stock prices prior to patentapproval and indicates that the price increase is random. This results thus lends support for theefficient market hypothesis. To investigate this further, the stock market data was compared witha random walk and by conducting a t-test it could be concluded that it was not possible to rejectthe hypothesis that share prices follow a random walk, thus the result further supports theefficient market hypothesis.
2

Revisionsanmärkningars påverkan på aktiekursen : En kvantitativ studie om förändringar i aktiekursen på svenska noterade bolag

Göthe, Jesper, Magnusson, Louise January 2022 (has links)
According to the efficient market hypothesis the stock price for a company should be evoked immediately when new and unpredicted information about the company’s value is published. A publishing of a qualified audit opinion that disclose previously unknown negative aspects of a limited liability company, should thus result in a negative impact on its share price. Previous studies in the field, on the other hand, show conflicting results. In some cases, a negative impact has been found, in other cases a positive impact has been found while in some cases no impact could be observed. The study's selection framework consists of 223 Swedish listed limited companies which have received a qualified audit opinion during the fiscal years 2011-2018. A stratified random sample was made where 142 companies were examined. This study aims to examine what relationship can be found between an audit opinion and abnormal returns for the company's share. Abnormal returns indicate the difference between expected returns and observed returns. The study is performed according to an event study with event windows of three different extents, from 1 day up to 21 days. The abnormal return on the shares has been studied according to the Market model. The results of the study are in line with previous research and show conflicting results. Over event windows of 21 days and 3 days, the majority shows a positive abnormal return and in contrast, the majority shows a negative abnormal return in terms of the event day only. It can be stated that investors on the Stockholm Stock Exchange react negatively only to going concern opinions. The results may further indicate that the Swedish market is efficient where reactions to new information in auditor opinions are immediate, rather than over time. The results may also indicate that investors are not the primary stakeholders to which the auditing profession should be adapted to in Sweden.
3

A Three-Pronged Sustainability-Oriented Markowitz Model : Disruption in the fund selection process? / En tre-dimensionell hållbarhetsorienterad Markowitz modell

Louivion, Simon, Sikorski, Edward January 2019 (has links)
Since the term ESG was coined in 2005, the growth of sustainable investments has outpaced the overall asset management industry. A lot of research has been done with regards to the link between sustainability and financial performance, despite the fact that there is a lack of transparency in sustainability of listed companies. This thesis breaks down the word sustainability into two di↵erent categories, and in turn eleven di↵erent parameters. The result is the term Q score which represents a company’s sustainability. The purpose is to increase transparency in the fund selection process for asset managers. Further, a multiobjective optimization problem is solved to analyze the relationships between return, risk and sustainability. The main subject is that accommodating sustainability as a third parameter in addition to return and risk modifies the fund selection process. The result indicates that the relationships between sustainability, return and risk follow the ecient market hypothesis, implying that an investor would have to sacrifice risk and return in order to achieve higher sustainability. With that said, the results indicated that the sacrifice is relatively small, and that there are a number of sustainable portfolios that perform well. Moving on, the reporting of ESG company data is still lacking. For this reason, this master thesis acts as a precursor for any future development within the field. / Sedan termen ESG utvecklades år 2005, har tillväxten av hållbara investeringar vuxit snabbare än den generella förvaltningsindustrin. Mycket forskning har gjorts kring hållbarhet kopplat till finansiell avkastning, men trots detta saknas det fortfarande en transparens rådande hållbarhet av noterade bolag. Detta examensarbete bryter ned termen hållbarhet till två kategorier, vilket i sin tur bryts ner till elva kvantifierbara parametrar. Resultatet blir ett så kallat Q score, som är ett värde på ett företags hållbarhet. Syftet med arbetet är att öka transparensen av fonders hållbarhetsarbete. Vidare löses ett optimeringsproblem med tre parametrar för att undersöka förållandena mellan avkastning, risk och hållbarhet. Resultatet indikerar att dessa förhållanden följer hypotesen om effektiva marknader, vilket innebär att en investerare måste offra avkastning och risk för att uppnå en mer hållbar portfölj. Med det sagt, indikererar resultatet att en investerare inte behöver offra mycket inom avkastning för att uppnå en hållbar portfölj. Vidare kvarstår det mycket arbete inom rapporteringen av ESG data på företagsnivå. Av detta skäl anses detta examensarbete vara en föregångare innan datan utvecklas vidare.

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