One major acknowledged challenge in daily precipitation is the inability to model extreme events in the spectrum of events. These extreme events are rare but may cause large losses. How to realistically simulate extreme behavior of daily precipitation is necessary and important. To that end, a hybrid probability distribution is developed. The logic of this distribution is to simulate the low to moderate values by an exponential distribution and extremes by a generalized Pareto distribution. Compared with alternatives, the developed hybrid distribution is capable of simulating the entire range of precipitation amount and is much easier to use. The hybrid distribution is then used to construct a bivariate discrete-continuous mixed distribution, which is used for building a daily precipitation generator. The developed generator can successfully reproduce extreme events. Compared with other widely used generators, the most important advantage of the developed generator is that it is apt at extrapolating values significantly beyond the upper range of observed data. The major challenge in monthly streamflow simulation is referred to the underrepresentation of inter-annual variability. The inter-annual variability is often related with sustained droughts or periods of high flows. Preserving inter-annual variability is thus of particular importance for the long-term management of water resources systems. To that end, variables conveying such inter-annual signals should be used as covariates. This requires models that must be flexible at incorporating as many covariates as necessary. Keeping this point in mind, a joint conditional density estimation network is developed. Therein, the joint distribution of streamflows of two adjacent months is assumed to follow a specific parametric family. Parameters of the distribution are estimated by an artificial neural network. Due to the seasonal concentration of precipitation or the joint effect of rainfall and snowmelt, monthly streamflow distribution sometimes may exhibit a bimodal shape. To reproduce bimodality, nonparametric models are often preferred. However, the simulated sequences from existing nonparametric models represent too close a resemblance to historical record. To address this issue, while retaining typical merits of nonparametric models, a multi-model regression-sampling algorithm with a few weak assumptions is developed. Collecting hydrometric data is the first step for building hydrologic models, and for planning, design, operation, and management of water resource systems. In this dissertation, an entropy-theory-based criterion, termed maximum information minimum redundancy, is proposed for hydrometric monitoring network evaluation and design. Compared with existing similar approaches, the criterion is apt at finding stations with high information content, and locating independent stations.

The ongoing climate changes are predicted to accelerate fast in arctic regions with increases in both temperatures and precipitation. Although the duration of snow cover is generally expected to decrease in the future, snow depth may paradoxically increase in those areas where a large amount of the elevated precipitation will fall as snow. The annual distribution and duration of snow are important features in arctic ecosystems, influencing plant traits and species interactions in various ways. In this thesis, I investigated the effect of snow on plants and their interactions with herbivores by experimentally increasing the snow cover by snow fences in three different habitats along an environmental gradient in Abisko, northern Sweden. I found that the snow cover mattered for plant quality as food for herbivores and herbivore performance. An enhanced and prolonged snow cover increased the level of insect herbivory on dwarf birch leaves under field conditions. Autumnal moth larvae feeding on leaves that had experienced increased snow-lie grew faster and pupated earlier than larvae fed with leaves from control plots. These findings indicated that plants from snow-rich plots produced higher-quality food for herbivores. My studies showed that differences in snow-lie explained parts of the within-year spatial and seasonal variation in plant chemistry and patterns of herbivory in this arctic landscape. The relationship between leaf nitrogen concentration and plant phenology was consistent between treatments and habitats, indicating that snow per se, via a delayed phenology, was controlling the nitrogen concentration. The relationship between leaf age and level of herbivory was positive in the beginning of the growing season, but negative in the end of the growing season, indicating an increasing importance of plant palatability and a decreasing importance of exposure time in determining the level of herbivory throughout the growing season. The concentrations of phenolics varied among habitats, treatments and sampling occasions, suggesting that these plants were able to retain a mosaic of secondary chemical quality despite altered snow conditions. Furthermore, the nutrient limiting plant growth, according to N:P ratio thresholds, appeared to shift from nitrogen to phosphorus along the topographic gradient from snow-poor ridges to more snow-rich heathlands and fens. Snow addition had, however, no significant effect on other nutrient concentrations than nitrogen and no significant effect on the leaf N:P ratio, indicating that differences in snow cover could not explain the variation in plant nutrient concentrations among habitats. In a five-year study, I found opposing inter-annual effects of increased snow on plant chemistry. In contrast to earlier results, the effect of snow-lie on plant nitrogen concentration was predominantly negative. However, the effect of increased snow cover on the level of herbivory remained predominantly positive. The strong within-year relationship between snow-melt date (via plant phenology) and plant nitrogen concentration and level of herbivory could not predict inter-annual variation in the effect of snow manipulation. I did not find any conclusive evidence for a single factor causing the inter-annual opposing effect of snow addition, but the results indicated that interactions with summer and winter temperatures might be important. In conclusion, this thesis showed that climate-induced changes in snow conditions will have strong effects on plant traits and plant-herbivore interactions. However, alterations in snow cover do not influence all plant traits and the effect may vary in time and space.

The eddy-covariance method was used to measure net ecosystem productivity over three adjacent fields from 2009 to 2011: two annual cropping systems (oat-canola-oat and hay-oat-fallow) recently converted from perennial cropping, and a perennial hay/pasture. We compared the management practises, determined the net carbon budget, and examined the effects of inter-annual variability. Carbon accumulation began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall at the perennial site, compared with the annual crop sites, due to a longer growing season and continual plant cover. Cumulative cropping season net ecosystem productivity at the perennial site ranged from 40 to 240 g C m^(-2) because of variable weather. Including harvest removals and manure additions, the perennial site gained 120 g carbon m^(-2) and the annual sites lost 240 and 415 g carbon m^(-2), respectively, over the 30-month period. This indicates that the annual cropping systems would decrease soil carbon at this location.

The eddy-covariance method was used to measure net ecosystem productivity over three adjacent fields from 2009 to 2011: two annual cropping systems (oat-canola-oat and hay-oat-fallow) recently converted from perennial cropping, and a perennial hay/pasture. We compared the management practises, determined the net carbon budget, and examined the effects of inter-annual variability. Carbon accumulation began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall at the perennial site, compared with the annual crop sites, due to a longer growing season and continual plant cover. Cumulative cropping season net ecosystem productivity at the perennial site ranged from 40 to 240 g C m^(-2) because of variable weather. Including harvest removals and manure additions, the perennial site gained 120 g carbon m^(-2) and the annual sites lost 240 and 415 g carbon m^(-2), respectively, over the 30-month period. This indicates that the annual cropping systems would decrease soil carbon at this location.

As a result of climate change, the snowfall amounts may be reduced and hence the snow accumulation, which recharges the groundwater in spring. Groundwater significantly influences summer low flows and its deficiency may negatively affect the streamflow and reduce the water supply in snow- dominated regions. This thesis aimes to describe the influence of changes in snow water equivalent on the inter-annual variability of minimal discharges in warm season (April to September) in eleven mountain catchments of the Czech Republic. The aimes were to determine 1) the duration of snow effects on the minimum discharges after the snowmelt onset, 2) the effect of inter-annual changes of snow water equivalent on minimal discharges in the warm season and 3) the date of the summer lowflows and the trend of its shift within the year. The results are based on hydrological and climatological station data collected by Czech Hydrometeorological Institute between the years 1980 and 2014. Snow affected the summer low flows until June and in exceptional cases even until July in higher elevation catchments. The most significant change was recorded in Úpa catchment, which belongs to higher elevation catchments, the 10 % decrease of maximum snow water equivalent caused reductions in minimal discharge by 8.8 % and 6.8 % in...

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Les bandes de fréquences utilisées conventionnellement pour les systèmes fixes de télécommunication par satellites (bandes C et Ku i.e. 4-15 GHz) sont congestionnées. Néanmoins, le marché des télécommunications civil et de défense accuse une demande de plus en plus importante en services multimédia haut-débit. Par conséquent, l'augmentation de la fréquence porteuse vers les bandes Ka et Q/V (20-40/50 GHz)est activement étudiée. Pour des fréquences supérieures à 5 GHz, la propagation des signaux radioélectriques souffre de l'atténuation troposphérique. Parmi les différents contributeurs à l'affaiblissement troposphérique total(atténuation, scintillation, dépolarisation, température de bruit du ciel), les précipitations jouent un rôle prépondérant. Pour compenser la détérioration des conditions de propagation, des techniques de compensation des affaiblissements (FMT: Fade Mitigation Technique) permettant d'adapter en temps réel les caractéristiques du système en fonction de l'état du canal de propagation doivent être employées. Une alternative à l'utilisation de séries temporelles expérimentales peu nombreuses est la génération de séries temporelles synthétiques d'atténuation due à la pluie et d'atténuation totale représentatives d'une liaison donnée.Le manuscrit est organisé autour de cinq articles. La première contribution est dédiée à la modélisation temporelle de l'affaiblissement troposphérique total. Le deuxième article porte sur des améliorations significatives du modèle de génération de séries temporelles d'atténuation due à la pluie recommandé par l'UITR.Les trois contributions suivantes constituent une analyse critique et une modélisation de la variabilité des statistiques du 1er ordre utilisées lors des tests des modèles de canal. La variance de l'estimateur statistique des distributions cumulatives complémentaires de l'atténuation due à la pluie et de l'intensité de précipitation est alors mise en évidence. Un modèle à application mondiale paramétré au moyen de données expérimentales est proposé. Celui-ci permet, d'une part, d'estimer les intervalles de confiance associés aux mesures de propagation et d'autre part, de quantifier le risque en termes de disponibilité annuelle associée à la prédiction d'une marge de propagation donnée. Cette approche est étendue aux variabilités des statistiques jointes. Elle permet alors une évaluation statistique de l'impact des techniques de diversité de site sur les performances systèmes, tant à microéchelle(quelques kms) qu'à macro-échelle (quelques centaines de kms). / Nowadays, C and Ku bands used for fixed SATCOM systems are totally congested. However, the demand of the end users for high data rate multimedia services is increasing. Consequently, the use of higher frequency bands (Ka: 20 GHz and Q/V 40/50 GHz) is under investigation. For frequencies higher than 5 GHz, radiowave propagation is strongly affected by tropospheric attenuation. Among the different contributors, rain is the most significant. To compensate the deterioration of the propagation channel, Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) are used. The lack of experimental data needed to optimize the real-time control loops of FMT leads tothe use of rain attenuation and total attenuation time series synthesizers. The manuscript is a compilation of five articles. The first contribution is dedicated to the temporal modelling of total impairments. The second article aims at providing significant improvements on the rain attenuation time series synthesizer recommended by ITU-R. The last three contributions are a critical analysis and a modelling of the variability observed on the 1st order statistics used to validate propagation channel models. The variance of the statistical estimator of the complementary cumulative distribution functions of rainfall rate and rain attenuation is highlighted. A worldwide model parameterized in compliance with propagation measurements is proposed. It allows the confidence intervals to be estimated and the risk on a required availability associated with a given propagation margin prediction to be quantified. This approach is extended to the variability of joint statistics. It allows the impact of site diversity techniques on system performances at small scale (few kms) and large scale (few hundred of kms) to be evaluated.

Abstract Describing how and why species composition of ecological communities varies across spatial and temporal scales is a primary objective for ecological research. A key challenge is to distinguish changes in community composition resulting from external factors from the natural background variability. In this thesis I aimed to study: 1) the level of temporal variation in community composition of stream macroinvertebrates, 2) the role of different environmental factors to temporal variability, 3) the effect of temporal variability on bioassessment outcomes, and 4) comparability of different approaches to study community variability through time. A majority of the studied macroinvertebrate communities showed lower level of inter-annual variation, i.e. temporal turnover, than expected by chance. The observation of high community stability was further supported by the low level of inter-annual variation in taxonomic completeness (quotient of observed and expected number of species, O/E). Despite the low absolute variation in O/E, ecological status assessments varied annually. Thus the use of one year data may bias management decisions. Macroinvertebrate communities experienced similar dynamics across several spatial extents, from riffles within a stream to streams among regions, suggesting that large-scale extrinsic factors are the major driver of community dynamics. Especially climatically exceptional years may have a strong imprint on community variability. However, at the within-stream scale, coherence was lower than expected, indicating that community dynamics may be driven by different processes at different spatial extents. Stream macroinvertebrate community dynamics were strongly related to in-stream vegetation, temporal variability decreasing with increasing macrophyte cover. Importantly, the effect of in-stream vegetation on temporal turnover of macroinvertebrate communities was masked by the stochastic effect of habitat connectivity, suggesting that unless stochastic effects are controlled for, the role of deterministic processes may be obscured, thus affecting our ability to understand and predict community changes through time. In addition, different approaches to study temporal variability may disagree on estimates for the level of temporal turnover and factors explaining it – a fact that should be taken into account when planning and comparing studies. / Tiivistelmä Yksi ekologisen tutkimuksen keskeisistä tavoitteista on kuvata, miten ja miksi eliöyhteisöjen koostumus muuttuu paikasta ja ajankohdasta toiseen. On tärkeää pystyä erottamaan erilaisten ulkoisten tekijöiden aiheuttamat muutokset luonnollisesta taustavaihtelusta. Väitöskirjani tavoitteena oli selvittää 1) miten paljon virtavesien pohjaeläinyhteisöissä tapahtuu ajallista vaihtelua 2) mitkä ympäristötekijät vaikuttavat yhteisöjen ajalliseen vaihteluun 3) miten ajallinen vaihtelu vaikuttaa ympäristön tilan arviointiin ja 4) kuinka vertailukelpoisia ovat eri lähestymistavat ajallista vaihtelua tutkittaessa. Valtaosa tutkituista pohjaeläinyhteisöistä vaihteli vuosien välillä vähemmän kuin olisi sattumalta odotettavissa osoittaen varsin suurta ajallista pysyvyyttä. Käsitystä yhteisöjen pysyvyydestä tuki myös vähäinen vuosittainen vaihtelu ekologista tilaa kuvaavassa taksonomisessa eheydessä (=havaitun ja odotetun lajiston suhde O/E). Huolimatta näennäisen pienestä vaihtelusta O/E suhteessa paikkakohtaiset tilaluokka-arviot saattoivat vaihtua vuodesta toiseen. Yhden vuoden aineistoon perustuvat tilan arvioinnit voivat siis johtaa virheellisiin johtopäätöksiin. Pohjaeläinyhteisöjen ajallinen vaihtelu oli samankaltaista eri mittakaavoilla niin peräkkäisten koskipaikkojen kuin eri alueilla sijaitsevien purojen välillä. Suuren mittakaavan ympäristötekijät näyttävät siis säätelevän eliöyhteisöjen ajallista vaihtelua. Erityisesti ilmastotekijöiltään poikkeukselliset vuodet säätelevät eliöyhteisöjä, ja niiden vaikutus voi näkyä vielä useiden vuosien kuluttua. Vaihtelun samankaltaisuus peräkkäisten koskipaikkojen välillä oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempää. Yhteisöjä voivat siis säädellä osittain eri tekijät eri mittakaavoilla. Tutkittujen pohjaeläinyhteisöjen ajallisen vaihtelun voimakkuus liittyi erityisesti vesikasvillisuuden määrään: vaihtelu väheni kasvillisuuden lisääntyessä. Kasvillisuuden määrän vaikutus peittyi kuitenkin satunnaisten tekijöiden alle. Jos satunnaisia tekijöitä ei huomioida, deterministiset syy-seuraussuhteet voivat jäädä huomaamatta heikentäen mahdollisuuksiamme ymmärtää ja ennustaa eliöyhteisöjen vaihtelua. Lisäksi eri lähestymistavat ajallista vaihtelua tutkittaessa voivat johtaa erilaisiin arvioihin vaihtelun suuruudesta ja siihen vaikuttavista tekijöistä, mikä tulisi ottaa huomioon tutkimuksia suunnitellessa ja niiden tuloksia vertailtaessa.

Evaluer, maintenir et restaurer les conditions écologiques des rivières nécessitent des mesures du fonctionnement de leurs écosystèmes. De par leur complexité, notre compréhension de ces systèmes est imparfaite. La prise en compte des incertitudes et variabilités liées à leur évaluation est donc indispensable à la prise de décision des gestionnaires. En analysant des données nationales (~ 1654 sites), les objectifs principaux de cette thèse étaient de (1) tester certaines hypothèses intrinsèques aux bio-indicateurs et (2) d'étudier les incertitudes de l'évaluation écologique associées à la variabilité temporelle des bio-indicateurs et à la prédiction des conditions de référence. (1) Ce travail met en évidence (i) le rôle prépondérant des facteurs environnementaux naturels dans la structuration des communautés aquatiques en comparaison des facteurs anthropiques (définis à l'échelle du bassin versant, du corridor riparien et du tronçon), (ii) les réponses contrastées des communautés aquatiques aux pressions humaines (dégradations hydro-morphologiques et de la qualité de l'eau) et (iii) plus généralement, les forts impacts des barrages et de l'altération de la qualité de l'eau sur les communautés aquatiques. (2) Une méthode Bayésienne a été développée pour estimer les incertitudes liées à la prédiction des conditions de référence d'un indice piscicole (IPR+). Les incertitudes prédictives de l'IPR+ dépendent du site considéré mais aucune tendance claire n'a été observée. Par comparaison, la variabilité temporelle de l'IPR+ est plus faible et semble augmenter avec l'intensité des perturbations anthropiques. Les résultats de ce travail confirment l'avantage d'indices multi-métriques basés sur des traits fonctionnels par rapport à ceux relatifs à la composition taxonomique. Les sensibilités différentes des macrophytes, poissons, diatomées et macro-invertébrés aux pressions humaines soulignent leur complémentarité pour l'évaluation des écosystèmes fluviaux. Néanmoins, de futures recherches sont nécessaires à une meilleure compréhension des effets d'interactions entre types de pressions et entre pressions humaines et environnement. / Sensitive biological measures of ecosystem quality are needed to assess, maintain or restore the ecological conditions of rivers. Since our understanding of these complex systems is imperfect, river management requires recognizing variability and uncertainty of bio-assessment for decision-making. Based on the analysis of national data sets (~ 1654 sites), the main goals of this work were (1) to test some of the assumptions that shape bio-indicators and (2) address the temporal variability and the uncertainty associated to prediction of reference conditions.(1) This thesis highlights (i) the predominant role of physiographic factors in shaping biological communities in comparison to human pressures (defined at catchment, riparian corridor and reach scales), (ii) the differences in the responses of biological indicators to the different types of human pressures (water quality, hydrological, morphological degradations) and (iii) more generally, the greatest biological impacts of water quality alterations and impoundments. (2) A Bayesian method was developed to estimate the uncertainty associated with reference condition predictions of a fish-based bio-indicator (IPR+). IPR+ predictive uncertainty was site-dependent but showed no clear trend related to the environmental gradient. By comparison, IPR+ temporal variability was lower and sensitive to an increase of human pressure intensity. This work confirmed the advantages of multi-metric indexes based on functional metrics in comparison to compositional metrics. The different sensitivities of macrophytes, fish, diatoms and macroinvertebrates to human pressures emphasize their complementarity in assessing river ecosystems. Nevertheless, future research is needed to better understand the effects of interactions between pressures and between pressures and the environment.