During the boreal cool season, regional climate in the United States is strongly impacted by extreme temperature regimes (ETRs), including both cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs), which have significant impacts on energy consumption, agriculture, as well as the human population. Using NCEP/NCAR and MERRA reanalysis data, the statistical characteristics of ETRs over three distinct geographical regions are studied: the Midwest (MW), Northeast Megalopolis (NE), and Deep South (SE). The regional long-term variability in the frequency and amplitude of ETRs is examined, and the modulation of these ETRs by low frequency modes is quantified. ETR behavior is characterized using three different metrics applied to both T and Twc: 1) the number of extreme cold/warm days, 2) a seasonal cumulative "impact factor", and 3) a peak normalized anomaly value. A trend analysis reveals a significant downward trend in SE WW events from 1949-2011. Otherwise, no significant trends are found for ETRs in any of the other regions. Thus, these results indicate that there has not been any significant reduction in either the amplitude or frequency of CAOs over the United States during the period of analysis. In fact, for the SE region, the recent winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 both rank among the top 5 in terms of CAO metrics. In addition, strong interannual variability in ETRs is evident from 1949-2011 in each region. Linear regression analysis is then used to determine the associations between ETR metrics and the seasonal mean state of several low frequency modes, and it is found that ETRs tend to be modulated by certain low frequency modes. For instance, in the SE region, there is a significant association between ETRs and the phase of the North Atlantic (or Arctic) Oscillation (NAO/AO), the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern (for WWs only), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (for WWs only). Over the MW region, WWs are modulated by the NAO/AO and PNA patterns, while in the NE region, the AO, NAO (for WWs only) and PDO (for WWs only) are implicated. In addition, it is found that there is an asymmetry between the low frequency mode modulation of CAOs and WWs. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to quantify the relative roles of the various low frequency modes in explaining interannual variability in ETR metrics, and reveals that various combinations of low frequency modes can explain anywhere between 10% and 50% of the variance in the ETR metrics.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T13:47:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Almeida Magris.pdf: 1237040 bytes, checksum: 07bea7179db169152f53f5f9f64662ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-03-24 / A variabilidade interanual, sazonal e entre as fases da maré da comunidade de Copepoda no estuário do rio Mucuri (Bahia, Brasil) foi estudada. Foram coletadas amostras de plâncton em cada estação do ano por um período de cinco anos (2002-2006) em três pontos de amostragem; sendo que em um deles, as amostragens aconteceram de acordo com o ciclo de marés (duas na enchente e duas na vazante). Dados de temperatura, salinidade, pluviosidade e vazão do rio foram obtidos. O inverno e o verão se destacaram por representarem o período seco e o chuvoso, respectivamente. A representatividade de Copepoda na comunidade zooplanctônica variou entre 40 e 63% da abundância total de espécies, e foi composta por 46 taxa, sendo dominada por espécies comuns nos ecossistemas estuarinos (Temora turbinata, Parvocalanus crassirostris, Acartia lilljeborgi, Oithona hebes, dentre outras). Foram encontrados indivíduos em todos os estágios do ciclo de vida, exemplificando o papel do estuário na reprodução e crescimento das espécies. Para espécies estenohalinas (e.g. Notodiaptomus sp. e Thermocyclops minutus), as variações interanuais e sazonais parecem ser mais importantes enquanto as espécies eurihalinas (a maioria das espécies dominantes) tiveram suas densidades controladas pela variabilidade entre as fases de maré. / Copepod community variability among years, seasons and tidal fluctuations at the Mucuri River estuary (Bahia, Brasil) were studied. Zooplankton samples were collected in each season for a period of five years (2002-2006) at three sampling stations; with one of the stations sampled at each tidal cycle (two neap and two flood tides). Temperature, salinity, river flow and rainfall data were obtained. Winter and summer represented the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Copepods abundance ranged from 40 to 63% of the total zooplankton community and was composed of 46 taxa, dominated by common estuarine species such as Temora turbinata, Parvocalanus crassirostris, Acartia lilljeborgi, Oithona hebes, among others). Individuals in all of the life stages were found, exemplifying the role of the estuary in the reproduction and growth of several species. For the stenohaline species (e.g. Notodiaptomus sp. and Thermocyclops minutus), interannual and seasonal variations seems to be more important while for the euryhaline species (the majority of the dominant ones) had their densities controlled by tidal variability.

La langue d'eau froide Atlantique est un refroidissement saisonnier qui affecte les eaux superficielles au sud de l'équateur entre les côtes africaines et 30°W environ, pendant la " saison froide " (entre mai et octobre). Ce phénomène se produit tous les ans, mais son intensité, sa durée, ainsi que son extension spatiale sont très variables d'une année sur l'autre. En dépit du couplage très marqué qui lie la langue d'eau froide et les premiers stades de la mousson africaine, les causes de cette variabilité interannuelle sont peu connues. Cette thèse a pour objectif de combler cette lacune en améliorant notre compréhension des processus océaniques contrôlant la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. Cette étude se focalise sur les événements " intenses" de la langue d'eau froide, correspondant à des refroidissements anormalement forts (faibles), précédés par des anomalies négatives (positives) de vent zonal. On se focalise ainsi sur les événements dits " canoniques ", les plus nombreux, et potentiellement similaires en terme de mécanisme. Cette classification, appliquée à une dizaine de réanalyses, permet de retenir, avec une robustesse certaine, cinq années dans chacune des classes. Ces événements sont étudiés grâce à des simulations numériques réalistes. L'utilisation de bilans de chaleur nous a permis d'accéder aux processus physiques qui contrôlent la formation des événements froids et chauds. Le mélange vertical à la base de la couche de mélange apparaît comme le processus fondamental de la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. Lors des événements froids, il accroît le refroidissement entre mars et juillet, alors que son rôle reste discret lors des événements chauds. Au milieu de l'été boréal, les anomalies de mélange vertical sont contrebalancées par des anomalies d'advection horizontale de signes opposés. Ainsi les événements froids comme chauds sont atténués en fin de saison. Cette thèse montre qu'il est plus pertinent de s'intéresser au flux d'énergie cinétique qui est plus directement lié à l'activation du mélange vertical, qu'à la tension de vent en surface. Le flux d'énergie cinétique semble d'autant plus pertinent qu'il joue aussi un rôle majeur lors des événements intenses " non-canoniques ", i.e. événements froids (chauds), précédés par des anomalies positives (négatives) de vent zonal. Enfin, la modulation de la vitesse verticale induite par le vent tend à ajuster i) la profondeur de la couche de mélange, ii) la pente de la thermocline, et iii) le cisaillement vertical de courant zonal. Ce sont des paramètres clés du mélange vertical et donc du taux de refroidissement. La vitesse verticale joue donc un rôle indirect dans l'établissement et la variabilité interannuelle de la langue d'eau froide. / The Atlantic cold tongue is a seasonal cooling of the sea surface temperature south of the Equator between the African coasts and around 30°W during the " cold season " (from May to October). The cooling occurs every year but its intensity, duration and spatial extent vary strongly from one year to another. In spite of the very strong coupling between the Atlantic cold tongue and the West African monsoon, the origin of the Atlantic cold tongue variability is not well described. This thesis aims at filling this gap by improving our understanding of the oceanic processes controlling the variability of the Atlantic cold tongue. This study focuses on " intense " Atlantic cold tongue events, defined by abnormally strong (weak) cooling, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind anomalies. Thus " canonical " being studied, that are the most frequent and probably similar in terms of mechanisms. This classification is applied to ten reanalyses and allows to select with good confidence, five events in each group. These events are studied through realistic simulations. The use of on-line heat budget allows to identify the physical processes that control the formation of cold and warm events. Vertical mixing at the base of the mixed-layer is the fundamental process controlling the interannual variability of the cold tongue. During cold events, it increases the cooling between March and July, while it remains weak during warm events. During boreal summer, vertical mixing anomalies are balanced by horizontal advection anomalies of opposite sign. So cold and warm events are weakened at the end of the season. This thesis highlights that it is more appropriate to focus on the wind energy flux because it is more directly related to the activation of vertical mixing, rather than on the surface wind stress. The wind energy flux is relevant since it is also shown to play a major role during intense " non-canonical " events, i.e. cold (warm) events preceded by positive (negative) zonal wind anomalies. Finally, the modulation of the vertical velocity induced by the wind tends to adjust i) the mixed-layer depth, ii) the intensity of the thermocline, and iii) the vertical shear of the zonal current. These are key parameters of vertical mixing and therefore the cooling rate. Thus, vertical velocity plays an indirect role in the establishment and interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue.

Arctic sea ice has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades, including a substantial reduction in sea ice extent in summer months. Such changes, combined with relatively recent advancements in seasonal (1-12 months) to decadal forecasting, have prompted a rapidly-growing body of research on forecasting Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales. These forecasts are anticipated to benefit a vast array of end-users whose activities are dependent on Arctic sea ice conditions. The research goal of this thesis is to address fundamental challenges pertaining to seasonal forecasts of Arcitc sea ice, with a particular focus placed on improving operational sea ice forecasts in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). Seasonal forecasts are strongly dependent on the accuracy of observations used as initial condition inputs. A key challenge initializing Arctic sea ice is the sparse availability of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. I present on the development of three statistical models that can be used for estimating Arctic SIT in real time for sea ice forecast initialization. The three statistical models are shown to vary in their ability to capture the recent thinning of sea ice, as well as their ability to capture interannual variations in SIT anomalies; however, each of the models is shown to dramatically improve the representation of SIT compared to the climatological SIT estimates used to initialize CanSIPS. I conduct a thorough assessment of sea ice hindcast skill using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (one of two models used in CanSIPS), in which the dependence of hindcast skill on SIT initialization is investigated. From this assessment, it can be concluded that all three statistical models are able to estimate SIT sufficiently to improve hindcast skill relative to the climatological initialization. However, the accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with two statistical models that adequately represent both processes. The final goal of this thesis is to improve the quantification of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice coverage. Information regarding forecast uncertainty is crucial for end-users who want to quantify the risk associated with trusting a particular forecast. I develop statistical post-processing methodology for improving probabilistic forecasts of Arctic SIC. The first of these improvements is intended to reduce sampling uncertainty by fitting ensemble SIC forecasts to a parametric probability distribution, namely the zero- and one- inflated beta (BEINF) distribution. It is shown that overall, probabilistic forecast skill is improved using the parametric distribution relative to a simpler count-based approach; however, model biases can degrade this skill improvement. The second of these improvements is the introduction of a novel calibration method, called trend-adjusted quantile mapping (TAQM), that explicitly accounts for SIC trends and is specifically designed for the BEINF distribution. It is shown that applying TAQM greatly reduces model errors, and results in probabilistic forecast skill that generally surpasses that of a climatological reference forecast, and to some degree that of a trend-adjusted climatological reference forecast, particularly at shorter lead times. / Graduate

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The geographical distribution of Piciforms' is one of the factors indicating the state of the forest. These forest birds are bioindicators of climax forest communities. In Šumava National Park, some of the Piciforms' are flag species' and thanks to that, various historical data about them exist. The goal of my study was to evaluate data from 2006-2018 monitoring and add my own monitoring data from years 2019 and 2020. This data consists of location of individual birds living in the region called Smrčina, the southernmost point of the National Park. The goal of this thesis was to determine which factors influence the distribution. The method chosen for the monitoring was so called "point count method", used from the beginning of April till the end of June. For the statistical analysis, the R software was used. And for the visualization of geographical distribution, I used qGis. The result of my thesis is that from 10 Piciform species living in the Czech Republic, 8 live in the studied region. The abundance of Black Woodpecker and Great-Spotted Woodpecker from year 2006 and Three-Toed Woodpecker from year 2009 is stable. (Great- Spotted Woodpecker with 1,6, Black Woodpecker with 0,5 and Three-Toed Woodpecker with 0,8 pairs on one hectare.) The most rare species White-Backed Woodpecker was spotted...

Em escalas interanuais a advecção de calor, sal e nutrientes pode afetar a produtividade primária. Pode-se citar a Circulação de Revolvimento Meridional (MOC) no impacto da concentração de clorofila. Neste estudo, a partir do método Multidimensional Empirical Mode Decomposition foram obtidos tendências decadais de PAR, nitrato integrado na coluna d\'água, concentração de clorofila e fluxo de volume da MOC. Em variações de baixa frequência há uma relação entre o transporte de volume da MOC com o nitrato integrado na coluna d\'água no Atlântico Sul, e consequentemente, na concentração de clorofila. Dois possíveis cenários foram identificados sobre o efeito da MOC no nitrato integrado e na concentração de clorofila. O cenário 1 apresenta uma relação direta no sistema MOC-nitrato integrado-concentração de clorofila, enquanto o efeito do cenário 2 é indireto, com a MOC afetando outras variáveis que perturbam o sistema. Neste estudo também foi analisado a influência de teleconexões atmosféricas na MOC do Atlântico Sul. Foi achado indícios da influência da Oscilação Antártica na MOC do Atlântico Sul em escalas decadais. Conclui-se que variações de baixa frequência no fluxo de volume da MOC alteram o padrão espaço-temporal da concentração de clorofila no Atlântico Sul. / On interannual timescales the advection of heat, salt and nutrients can affect the primary production. The influence of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) over the chlorophyll concentration can be mentioned. In this study, decadal trends of PAR, integrated nitrate over the water column, chlorophyll and volume flux of the MOC were obtained using the Multidimensional Empirical Mode Decomposition method. On low frequency variations there is a relationship between the MOC volume transport with integrated nitrate over the water column in the South Atlantic, and therefore, on chlorophyll concentration. Two scenarios were identified as possible mechanisms of influence of the MOC over integrated nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations. Scenario 1 presents a direct relationship on the system MOC-integrated nitrate-chlorophyll concentration, while scenario 2 has an indirect effect, with the MOC affecting other variables that disturb the system. In this study the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on the South Atlantic MOC were also investigated. It was found evidence that the Antarctic Oscillation can affect the South Atlantic MOC on decadal timescales. It was concluded that low frequency variability on the volume flux of the MOC can alter the spatiotemporal pattern of the chlorophyll concentration on the South Atlantic.

Il est probable que les changements climatiques futurs diminuent la croissance forestière en région tempérée. Cette vulnérabilité des espèces face aux contraintes du climat peut être étudiée via les cernes des arbres. Ces derniers sont en effet des archives du carbone utilisé par les arbres pour leur croissance, en lien avec les caractéristiques spécifiques de gestion du carbone et de réponse au climat. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de déterminer, à partir des cernes, les réponses fonctionnelles de trois essences forestières tempérées (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea et Pinus sylvestris) aux variations climatiques. Pour cela, nous avons réalisé une approche expérimentale en étudiant deux proxys (ou indices climatiques) : la croissance et la composition isotopique en 13C (δ13C) des cernes, à deux échelles temporelles : interannuelle et saisonnière. A l’échelle interannuelle, sur la période 1960-2007, une étude dendrochronologique a été réalisée sur les trois essences et a été complétée par l’analyse du δ13C des cernes (en relation avec le climat). A l’échelle saisonnière, nous avons déterminé précisément, sur une année (2009), les dynamiques de croissance du cerne et les variations de δ13C intra-cerne. Nos résultats mettent en évidence une sensibilité de la croissance et du δ13C des cernes des trois essences aux sécheresses estivales. Grâce à la complémentarité des proxys et des échelles temporelles, nous avons également trouvé des réponses climatiques contrastées entre espèces. La croissance du Hêtre est la plus réactive au climat d’une année à l’autre. Cette croissance ainsi que le δ13C des cernes sont fortement sensibles aux températures de juillet, en plus des précipitations printanières et estivales. Cette réponse immédiate au climat peut être expliquée par une forte dépendance de la croissance au fonctionnement foliaire et une faible utilisation des réserves carbonées pour assurer le début de la croissance. Le Chêne présente lui des arrières-effets climatiques sur sa croissance, via une forte sensibilité aux sécheresses de l’automne précédent, contrairement aux deux autres espèces. Ce résultat est à mettre en relation avec l’utilisation importante de réserves carbonées par rapport aux assimilats pour la croissance du bois initial, cette dernière étant très rapide, comme nous l’avons observé grâce à l’analyse saisonnière de la croissance. Concernant le Pin, la croissance, parce qu’elle dure plus longtemps que celle des décidues, est influencée par les températures et les précipitations de juin jusqu'à août. Le δ13C des cernes de pins est celui qui enregistre le plus la réponse au VPD, aussi bien à l’échelle saisonnière qu'interannuelle, probablement du fait d’une forte sensibilité de la conductance stomatique à ce paramètre. Les informations fournies par les cernes permettent d’appréhender la survie des espèces face aux changements climatiques futurs et peuvent être utilisées pour comprendre le dépérissement lié à ces changements. / Climate change will probably alter the tree growth in temperate forests. The species vulnerability to climatic constraints can be studied using tree rings. The latter's are natural archives of carbon used for tree growth and are linked to species carbon transfer and response to climate. The main thesis objective was to determine the functional response of three temperate species (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea et Pinus sylvestris) under climatic variations using tree rings. For this, an experimental approach was conducted using two proxies (or climatic indices): the radial growth and the carbon isotope composition in 13C (δ13C) of rings at two time scales: interannual and intra-annual (or seasonal). At interannual scale, over the period 1960-2007, a dendrological study was done for three species and was completed by analysis of ring δ13C (in relation to climate). Over one year (2009) at seasonal scale, we precisely determined the radial growth dynamics and the variations in intra-ring δ13C. Our results highlighted growth and ring δ13C sensitivities to summer droughts. Because of proxy and time-scale complementarities, we have also found contrasted climatic responses among species. The beech growth is the most year-to-year responsive to climate. This growth and ring δ13C were highly sensitive to temperature in July in addition to spring and summer precipitation. This quick response of beech growth to climate could be explained by strong growth dependence to leaf functioning and low carbon reserve use to ensure the growth beginning. Contrary to the two others species, long-term consequences of climate on oak growth were found, via a high sensitivity to previous autumnal droughts. This result could be related to the high use of carbon reserves compared to assimilates for earlywood growth, which was very quick as observed by seasonal growth analysis. Concerning pine, the growth was influenced by temperatures and precipitation from June to August because the growth lasted longer for pine than that of the deciduous species. At both seasonal and interannual scales, the ring δ13C of pine trees was the best recorder of the VPD response, probably because of strong sensitivity of stomatal conductance to VPD. The information provided by tree rings allow to anticipate the species survival under future climate change and could be used to understand the declining due to these changes.

Le saumon Atlantique fait partie du patrimoine écologique et économique du bassin de l’Adour. Dans le cadre de la gestion actuelle du saumon dans ce bassin, l’origine natale des géniteurs, le taux de retour des individus d’origine piscicole, le taux de homing sur chaque sous-bassin ou encore le soutient par des géniteurs extérieurs au bassin de l’Adour sont des thématiques qui restent sans réponses. Ce projet propose donc de tester le potentiel de la géochimie des otolithes sur le saumon Atlantique du bassin de l’Adour. Nos travaux démontrent que la variation géographique de la composition chimique de l’eau dans 12 rivières colonisées par le saumon, associée à un enregistrement dans l’otolithe proportionnel à la signature géochimique du milieu de vie, permettent de discriminer l’origine géographique des individus. La combinaison des signatures élémentaires (Sr:Ca et Ba:Ca) et surtout l’isotopie du Sr (temporellement plus stable et sans fractionnement biologique) dans les otolithes améliore la précision du classement à l’échelle de la rivière de développement. En se basant sur la transmission de signatures géochimiques (élémentaires et isotopiques) transgénérationelles entre la femelle reproductrice et les otolithes des embryons produits par cette dernière, nous avons discriminé avec succès les individus nés en rivière de ceux nés en pisciculture. Le classement des géniteurs (180 individus) selon leur rivière natale a confirmé que le sous bassin du gave d’Oloron, et plus particulièrement le gave d’Ossau, reste le lieu qui produit le plus de saumon de retour. De façon non négligeable, le gave de Pau contribue lui aussi au renouvellement de la population (10 d’origine piscicole et 6 d’origine naturelle). 18 saumons sur 180 sont issus de l’alevinage (soit 10%); la majorité s’étant développée dans le sous-bassin du gave de Pau. Par ailleurs, nous avons mis à jour l’existence de périodes au cours de la vie des juvéniles (changements de milieu: sac vitellin—milieu extérieur et pisciculture—rivière) durant lesquelles l’enregistrement du Ba dans l’otolithe n’est pas en relation avec la chimie de l’eau. L’originalité de notre approche est d’avoir étudié l’influence des facteurs endogènes et environnementaux chez des poissons ayant vécu dans le milieu naturel ou ayant séjourné en milieu naturel contrôlé. Nos travaux mettent l’accent sur la complexité de l’intégration du rapport Ba:Ca dans l’otolithe et démontrent l’utilité des éléments traces et des isotopes du Sr comme « tag naturel » pour distinguer l’origine natale du saumon Atlantique. / The Adour basin holds one of the largest populations of Atlantic salmon in southern Europe exploited by commercial and sport fisheries. Determining the relative contributions of individual rivers and hatcheries to the Adour basin populations becomes crucial to understand key sources that contribute the most to its persistence. We successfully used Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca and 87Sr:86Sr ratios as natural tags for determining the natal origins of adults from 12 tributaries. Success in discriminating between fish from different sites was greatest using Sr isotopes since the latter remained relatively constant across years at a given location. Geochemical signatures from core regions of the otolith were also used to identify fish from hatchery or naturally spawned sources. The predominance of adults spawned in the Ossau River among returning adults corresponded with long-term juvenile production trends in the Ossau River. Despite the limited upstream accessibility of the Pau River, our study demonstrated that Atlantic salmon recruits can successfully leave this river to join the adult population in the Adour basin. We observed relatively clear separation between hatchery and wild juveniles using both Sr:Cacore (wild > 2.5 and hatchery < 0.80) and 87Sr:86Srcore (wild < 0.710 and hatchery > 0.710). The return of hatchery reared fish as adult spawners represented 10% of the total sampled fish we analyzed. Almost all adults, previously identified as belonging to the Ouzom River, were hatchery produced. Adults originated from the Pau River were either wild or hatchery reared fish. We also conducted field controlled experiments that characterized the elemental uptake process in juvenile Atlantic salmon otoliths during freshwater residency. Physiological effects influenced Ba deposition. Ba:Ca otolith profiles from hatchery-reared and field collected fish were characterised by a peak at yolk absorption mark. Hatchery-reared fish stocked in a river also displayed a peak of Ba:Ca following transfer which was not related to the water chemistry. Our experiment revealed a 20-day lag time between initial Ba:Cawater changes and Ba:Caotolith saturation. Results suggested that such effects should be considered during any attempts to determine rivers of origin of Atlantic salmon based on otolith elemental composition or reconstruct the movement of individual fish among and within streams.