Thesis (Ph.D. (Econometrics))-University of Pretoria, 2005. / Abstract in English. Includes bibliographical references. Available on the Internet via the World Wide Web.

Este trabalho tem como tema os dilemas dos bancos centrais na condução da política monetária quando se vêem diante de bolhas de ativos mobiliários ou imobiliários. Primeiramente será apresentado o conceito teórico de bolha de acordo a tradição da hipótese dos mercados eficientes, por um lado, e segundo as visões que admitem alguma manifestação de irracionalidade/imperfeição no comportamento dos agentes participantes dos mercados financeiros (Keynes, Minsky e Finanças Comportamentais), por outro lado. Em seguida busca-se compreender o comportamento dos principais agentes econômicos no ambiente de finanças desregulamentadas, que surgiu a partir da década de 1970, bem como as vantagens e desvantagens de se adotar uma política monetária passiva diante das bolhas (como prefere a visão neoclássica convencional) ou pró-ativa (como defende a visão alternativa). Por fim, analisam-se como os agentes econômicos brasileiros se comportam nesse contexto, o potencial de geração de bolhas na economia doméstica e quais as dificuldades adicionais do Banco Central do Brasil, em relação às economias centrais, no manejo da política monetária em ambiente de bolhas de ativos. / The subject of this work are the trade-offs and challenges faced by Central Banks in the conduction of the monetary policy in the occurrence of a stock or real state bubble. In this thesis are presented the opinions of economists that believe in the random walk theory and in the efficient market hypothesis, and of those that assume some irrationality in the behavior of financial markets (Keynes, Minsky and Behavioral Finance) in respect of how Central Banks should use the monetary policy in the occurrence of bubbles. First it is showed the theoretic bubble concept under these two viewpoints. After that, the second chapter shows the behavior of main economic agents in the environment of deregulation, which emerged from the 1970s, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of adopting an either passive or active monetary policy to combat bubbles. Finally, the last chapter presents how brazilian economic agents behave in this context, the potential to generate bubbles in the domestic economy and the additional difficulties of the brazilian Central Bank in the management of monetary policy on asset bubbles environment.

Com o crescimento do comércio entre os países emergentes na última década, um aumento do fluxo de capitais entre esses países tem sido observado, o que defende a hipótese de integração financeira crescente entre esses países e seus respectivos mercados acionários. Ao mesmo tempo, essa categoria de comércio tem gerado um fator grupo que tem explicado parte da diferença significativa de desempenho econômico entre os países emergentes e os desenvolvidos, conhecida como decoupling. Esta pesquisa pretende investigar se existe um fenômeno de decoupling entre os mercados acionários dos BRICS e dos EUA e se esse fenômeno pode ser explicado pela integração entre os mercados dos BRICS de 2003 a outubro de 2012. Foram analisados modelos em que a variável dependente é a diferença absoluta de desempenho entre um portfólio com índices dos mercados acionários dos BRICS e o índice S&P500 do mercado norte-americano. A variável independente consistiu de proxies para integração entre os mercados acionários dos BRICS. Os modelos foram analisados antes e depois da crise financeira de 2008. Adicionalmente, foram gerados modelos sem a inclusão do mercado chinês para verificar seu impacto na relação entre as variáveis estudadas. Entre os resultados, foram encontradas evidências de: (i) um possível decoupling entre os desempenhos dos mercados dos BRICS e dos EUA, principalmente de 2003 a 2006; (ii) uma influência significativa da integração dos mercados acionários dos BRICS no decoupling identificado; (iii) um impacto relevante do mercado chinês nos fenômenos analisados; e (iv) mudanças importantes nos resultados antes e depois da crise financeira de 2008. Esses resultados suportam a hipótese de que a recente interação entre os mercados emergentes tem produzido um fator grupo que tem gerado desempenhos significativamente diferentes dos mercados desenvolvidos, tendo implicações importantes para a teoria da diversificação internacional de portfólios. / With the growth of the trade between emerging countries in the last decade, an increase in the capital flow between these countries has been observed, which defends the hypothesis of rising financial integration between these countries and their respective stock markets. At the same time, this category of trade has generated a group factor that has explained part of the significant difference of economic performance between emerging and developed countries, known as decoupling. This research aims to investigate if there is a decoupling phenomenon between the BRICS stock markets and the US market and if this phenomenon can be explained by the integration between the BRICS markets from 2003 to October of 2012. I analyzed models in which the dependent variables is the absolute difference of performance between a portfolio with indexes of BRICS stock markets and the S&P500 index of the north american market. The independent variable consisted of proxies to the integration of the BRICS stock markets. I analyzed the models before and after the financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, models were generated without the inclusion of the chinese market in order to verify its impact on the relation between the studied variables. Among the results, I found evidences of: (i) a possible decoupling between the performances of BRICS and US markets, mainly from 2003 to 2006; (ii) a significant influence of the integration between BRICS markets and on the identified decoupling; (iii) a relevant impact of the chinese market on the analyzed phenomena; and (iv) important changes on the results before and after the financial crisis of 2008. These results support the hypothesis that the recent interaction between the emerging markets has produced a group factor that has generated performances significantly different from the developed countries, having important implications to the theory of international diversification of portfolios.

Orientador: Daniela Magalhães Prates / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T03:18:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Weiss_MauricioAndrade_D.pdf: 3099937 bytes, checksum: f12ba1741353723f160b9105d03c2349 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Uma das características fundamentais da dinâmica das finanças internacionais no contexto de globalização financeira é a volatilidade dos fluxos de capitais. Essa volatilidade é decorrente da dominância da lógica financeira sobre a produtiva no capitalismo contemporâneo e das atuais características do sistema monetário internacional (SMI). Em períodos de elevado apetite pelo risco, os fluxos de capitais tendem a elevar sua participação nos países em desesnvolvimento. Já nos momentos de elevada preferência por liquidez, esses fluxos migram para os países desenvolvidos, principalmente para os Estados Unidos. Esta tese pretende dar uma contribuição à literatura empírica sobre os determinantes dos fluxos de capitais aos países em desenvolvimento por meio de um modelo econométrico de dados em painel com a utilização de diferentes métodos: mínimos quadrados ordinários (Ordinary Least Squares), efeitos fixos (fixed effects), efeitos aleatórios (random effects), primeira diferença (first difference) e método dos momentos generalizados (Generalized method of moments). Os resultados obtidos contribuíram com os estudos anteriores que apontaram para um predomínio dos fatores externos sobre os internos na determinação dos fluxos de capitais. Merece destaque o indicador de volatilidade VIX CBOE, o qual se mostrou significativo e com sinal esperado nas quinze equações testadas / Abstract: One of the key features of the dynamics of international finance in the context of financial globalization is the volatility of capital flows. This volatility is due to the dominance of the financial over the productive logic of contemporary capitalism and the current characteristics of the international monetary system (IMS). In periods of high risk appetite, capital flows tend to raise its share in developing countries. But in the periods of high liquidity preference, these flows migrate to developed countries, mainly to the United States. This thesis aims to give a contribution to the empirical literature on the determinants of capital flows to developing countries using an econometric panel data model with the use of different methods: ordinary least squares, fixed effects, random effects, first difference and generalized method of moments. The results contributed to earlier studies that showed a predominance of external factors over internal ones in determining capital flows. Also noteworthy is the CBOE VIX volatility indicator, which showed significant and with the expected sign on the fifteen tested equations / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Eduardo Barros Mariutti / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T16:05:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marchetto_BrunoQueiroz_M.pdf: 758262 bytes, checksum: f469466ab46d60dbac7a54b69302d82d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Os efeitos da chamada "Era da Catástrofe" (1914-45) demandaram uma reforma radical nas diretrizes que nortearam a economia mundial no fim do século XIX: o laissez faire cedeu lugar à imposição de controles sociais sobre o mercado, orquestrados em grande medida pelos EUA. A materialização disto, no plano monetário-financeiro, foi à criação do sistema de Bretton Woods. Coube ao plano Marshall, mediante uma expansão da liquidez, dar o impulso inicial aos "Anos Dourados", fase de extraordinário crescimento econômico amparado pela busca do pleno emprego e pela sustentação da demanda. Os anos 1970 marcam a desarticulação deste arranjo internacional. Pretendemos analisar a estratégia monetário-financeira articulada pelos EUA no início da década de 1970, o que, no médio prazo, possibilitou a restauração de sua posição dominante no cenário internacional, promovendo, de forma correlata, a difusão do neoliberalismo e da financeirização. O ponto-chave de nossa análise está nas medidas adotadas pelos EUA para deslocar para seus "aliado-rivais" (Europa Ocidental e Japão) e para a periferia os efeitos adversos do "choque do petróleo", fato que tornou possível restaurar a sua liderança nos setores de ponta da indústria, que caracterizaram a Terceira Revolução Industrial. Partimos da hipótese que os EUA usaram fundamentalmente do seu poder político para deslegitimar as instituições multilaterais (o FMI e OCDE) que poderiam ter sido mobilizadas para conter a crise / Abstract: The "age of catastrophe" (1914-45) effects demanded radical reforms on the guidelines which shaped the world economy in the last years of the nineteenth century: the laissez faire was replaced by the imposition of social controls to the market mechanisms, process which was led, to a great extent, by US. The reflects of this movement, in the monetary and financial fields, was the creation of the Bretton Woods System. The Marshall Plan, through a liquidity expansion, gave the initial impulse to what came to be known as "the golden age of capitalism", a period of extraordinary economic growth characterized by the seek of the full employment and by the demand sustainment. The seventies began with the disarticulation of this international arrangement. We pretend to analyze the financial and monetary strategy articulated by the US in the begging of the seventies, what, in the middle run, made possible to this country to restore its dominant position on the international scenario, promoting, moreover, the neoliberalism diffusion and the "financialization" process. Our key point in this paper is the movements adopted by the US in order to dislocated to its "allies-rivals" (Western Europe and Japan) and to the periphery the adverse effects of the First Petroleum Chock (1973). The hypothesis assumed here is that the US basically used its political power to weaken the legitimacy of the multilateral institutions (the IMF and OEDC), which could have been mobilized to restrain the crisis / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Magister Legum - LLM / This study was on the anticipated impact of GATS on the financial services industry in Africa. The paper examined the possible positive and negative impact of the GATS agreement on the financial services industry in the African countries. The research focused on the banking sector and the insurance sector as the main financial sectors under investigation. / South Africa

Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.

<p>My three chapters are all related to the study of immigrants in how they impact the US</p> <p>economy. The first two chapters look at international students in particular and how they</p> <p>impact their domestic peers and the local college towns they reside in. The third chapter</p> <p>looks at immigrant workers and their effect on native workers’ propensity to consolidate to</p> <p>form labor unions.</p> <p>To be specific, the first chapter, titled How International students Affect Domestic Students’</p> <p>Achievement: evidence from the OPT STEM-extension, looks at the role of immigrants</p> <p>in shaping the educational outcome of domestic students pursuing STEM degrees</p> <p>in the United States. By utilizing the mass influx of international students after an immigration</p> <p>policy change (OPT-STEM-extension) in 2008, I investigate the peer effects that</p> <p>international students have on grades, attrition, and first-year salary of STEM graduates.</p> <p>I account for the common selection issues present in the peer-effects literature by looking</p> <p>at the yearly exogenous change in international student share in a specific course-instructor</p> <p>pair and controlling for rich individual ability and demographics. This was made possible</p> <p>by having access to administrative data of a land-grant university with one of the highest</p> <p>international student enrollments in the US. I find that international students tend to lower</p> <p>grades and persistence of domestic students in STEM. Still, this negative effect is more than</p> <p>compensated for in the increase in salary due to spill-over effects in learning for those who</p> <p>persist and graduate.</p> <p>My research aims to eventually aid policymakers in both the local educational institutions</p> <p>and the federal government. To this end, I have extended my analysis of international</p> <p>students by shifting my focus outside the classroom to the local economies of the college</p> <p>campuses. In my second chapter, titled International Students’ Effect on Local Businesses, I</p> <p>use the zip code-level Census data on small businesses to see how the influx of international</p> <p>students affected the regional college campuses. I find that international students have a</p> <p>significantly positive effect on job creation in the local economy. To my knowledge, this is</p> <p>the first data-driven-causal analysis of international students on local businesses in the US.</p> <p>12</p> <p>My third chapter is a co-authored work with Alex Nowrasteh and Artem Samiahulin</p> <p>titled Immigrants Reduce Unionization in the US. Here we attempt to relate immigrants to</p> <p>a more traditional labor economics topic: labor unions. Although there is a vast amount of</p> <p>literature on unions, we found that the literature that causally estimates immigrants’ effect</p> <p>on unions is severely lacking in the US setting. Using a combination of representative data</p> <p>such as the CPS, Census, and the ACS, we show that immigrants accounted for about onethird</p> <p>of the decline in unions since the 1980s. We based our paper on the theoretical model</p> <p>of Naylor and Cripps  1993  and borrowed George Borjas’s skill-cell method for our empirical</p> <p>method.(Borjas  2003 )</p>

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