Les crises financières internationales ne se présentent pas comme des événements rares et isolés dans le temps. Des dénominateurs communs classiques à toute crise financière se retrouvent dans chaque cas historique : la détérioration des indicateurs macroéconomiques, la psychologie et les paniques des investisseurs, la spéculation. La problématique des dettes souveraines ne relevait jusqu’à présent principalement que des pays en développement, alors que les récentes perturbations financières ont démontré que les pays développés pouvaient également être gravement affectés. L’objectif de ce travail est d’analyser les évolutions du cadre juridique de la gestion des dettes souveraines pour réunir des éléments qui permettent de comprendre le choix normatif privilégié par chaque opérateur. L’actuel scénario d’endettement des États souverains entraîne nécessairement un bouleversement irréversible des règles et des structures juridiques connues qui visent à assurer le bon fonctionnement de l’économie mondiale. Face à l’actuelle incertitude normative, il est primordial d’étudier les supports du financement souverain, le traitement des crises, les propositions de réformes visant à améliorer le système et le rôle des institutions multilatérales dans la gestion de la dette souveraine. Après avoir déterminé l’existence d’un engagement international de gestion des dettes souveraines, nous plaidons pour la mise en œuvre d’un ensemble normatif d’outils conçus pour intégrer les réglementations nationales sur la base de modèles préexistants. / Historically, international financial crises do not occur in isolation but rather go hand in hand with the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, investor panic and speculation. Until recently, the sovereign debt issue has principally concerned developing countries. However, the recent financial turmoil has revealed that developed countries can similarly be severely affected. Since the beginning of the 20th century, experts in international law have periodically discussed the possible remedies to the endemic situation of sovereign indebtedness. In 2001, the International Monetary Fund launched a proposal for a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism known as the ‘Krueger Plan’; this was quickly abandoned in 2003. Due to the present economic and political cul-de-sac, the legal framework of sovereign debt management strongly preoccupies the international community. The current sovereign debt scenario necessarily involves an irreversible disruption of the legal rules and structures that currently support a proper functioning global economy. This doctoral thesis analyses the evolution of the legal framework and the normative choices favoured by each actor. Identifying which particular legal issues are essential to evaluate such complexity allows us to deepen the theoretical and practical suggestions designed to facilitate the resolution of sovereign debt crises. After establishing the leading international requirements for sovereign debt management, this thesis advocates the implementation of a normative set of tools designed to integrate domestic regulations on the basis of previous models. / Internationale Finanzkrisen erweisen sich als nicht seltene und zeitlich unbegrenzte Ereignisse. Jeder Finanzkrise in der Historie haften die gleichen klassischen Charakteristiken an: die Beschädigung makroökonomischer Indikatoren, der Psychologie sowie die Panik der Investoren, Spekulationen. Darüber hinaus beschränken sich die aktuellen Finanzstörungen nicht mehr nur auf Entwicklungsländer. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die Entwicklung des Rechtsrahmens der Verwaltung souveräner Schulden zu analysieren, um Elemente zusammenzutragen, die es erlauben die bevorzugten normativen Entscheidungen jedes Akteures zu verstehen, zu bewerten und im Anschluss entsprechend Handlungsanweisungen zu geben. Das gegenwärtige Szenario der Verschuldung souveräner Staaten führt unweigerlich zu einer unumkehrbaren Umwälzung der bekannten Rechtsverordnungen und -strukturen, die auf die Gewährleistung eines reibungslosen Funktionierens der Weltwirtschaft abzielen. Angesichts der gegenwärtigen normativen Unsicherheit, ist es von größter Bedeutung die Auseinandersetzung mit finanziellen Krisen, die entsprechenden Reformvorschläge, die Suche nach Systemverbesserungen hinsichtlich einer Marktregulierung und die Rolle der multilateralen Institutionen bezüglich der Verwaltung souveräner Schulden genauer zu untersuchen. Nach der Feststellung des Vorliegens einer internationalen Verpflichtung zum Staatsschuldenmanagement wird die Einführung einer Reihe normativer Werkzeuge befürwortet, um nationale Vorschriften auf Grundlage bereits bestehender Modelle zu integrieren.

This thesis attempts to critically and comparatively analyse the issues relating to the passing of property and risk under the United Nations Convention on the Contract for International Sale of Goods (CISG) and English Law (SGA). The passing of property and risk plays a central role in the area of international legislation in relation to sales contracts. These elements can be the most significant components in contracts of sale between parties, whether in the international or domestic field. The reason is founded on their legal nature and the close relationship between them. The passing of property and risk has been a central issue for practitioners, judges and lawyers dating back to the Roman period and several ideas have been proposed to resolve it. Where the situation is different for contracts of sale in relation to the passing of property and risk, whether in the domestic or international field, it still creates many unresolved problems, because of ongoing changes in the field of modern commerce, which may contribute to unfair implications between the parties. It has been observed in this thesis that both English law and the CISG adopt the party autonomy principle, where the intention of the parties - whether in relation to the passing of property or risk - is the basic rule. However, the difference lies in the default rules. While English law involves default substitutional rules, which apply in cases where there is an absence of an expressed or implied indication regarding the intention between the parties, the CISG lacks such default rules regarding the transfer of property, which could be viewed as its main weakness, although the CISG does involve such provisions with respect to the transfer of risk. This thesis willdiscusses, the legal nature of the rules in relation to the passing of property and risk, and the role of the party autonomy principle, and the impacts and legal difficulties that might arise through the application of these rules, whether they are default rules or based on the party autonomy principle. It will also examine the legal gaps and weaknesses of both legal systems in an attempt to identify such legal difficulties and to find appropriate solutions and remedies.

Il est indéniable que les organisations internationales exercent, de nos jours, un pouvoir important. Or, de cette constatation sont nés les appels à limiter le pouvoir de ces organisations et à leurs opposer les droits de la personne. Cette thèse étudie ce discours sur l'applicabilité des droits de la personne aux organisations internationales. Faisant appel aux écrits de Martti Koskenniemi, elle déconstruit dans un premier temps ce discours. Elle montre qu'il est impossible d'objectiver celui-ci et que toute tentative en ce sens amène immanquablement le juriste qui s'y essaie à exercer un acte de pouvoir et donc un acte politique. Cette thèse montre ensuite qu'en dépit de cette indétermination du droit, il est néanmoins possible de mobiliser les droits de la personne pour mettre en cause l'action des organisations internationales. Cette démarche implique toutefois d'accepter sa dimension politique et de prendre conscience des couts et bénéfices qui accompagnent celle-ci. Elle implique d'accepter la responsabilité personnelle des choix que l'on fait au nom de l'application des droits de la personne. / Doctorat en Sciences juridiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.

La chute récente du prix des matières premières a montré la vulnérabilité que pouvait impliquer une trop forte dépendance des économies aux revenus provenant des ressources naturelles. Dans le premier chapitre, les résultats que nous obtenons indiquent que les prix des matières premières sont un indicateur important du risque pays des exportateurs, ce qui n’est pas le cas des pays qui sont importateurs. Bien que les pays exportateurs soient aujourd’hui ceux dont le défaut externe est le plus probable, il n’apparaît pas de prime de risque supplémentaire liée à la détention de leurs obligations. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous étudions le lien entre les termes de l’échange et le taux de change effectif réel entre et de exportateurs de matières premières . Il existe une relation de long terme entre les termes de l’échange des pays exportateurs et leur taux de change réel. Les termes de l’échange n’ont pas d’impact à court-terme sur les taux de change effectifs réels. Néanmoins, nous montrons grâce à l’estimation d’un modèle à seuil à transition lisse en panel PSTR , qu’ une forte baisse du prix du pétrole (entre 25% et 36%) donnent un pouvoir explicatif aux termes de l’échange. Même si la question est encore largement débattue dans la littérature, l’idée qu’il existe une "malédiction des ressources naturelles" a fait sa place. Les pays fortement dotés en ressources naturelles auraient en moyenne une croissance économique plus faible que ceux qui n’en sont pas pourvus. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous proposons une méta-analyse basée sur un échantillon de 67 études empiriques qui étudient le lien entre ressources naturelles et croissance économique. Sur la base d’un ensemble de coefficients estimés, nos résultats montrent qu’il existe une "faible" malédiction des ressources. / The recent drop in commodity prices showed the high vulnerability implied by being too much dependent on revenues stemming from natural resources. In the first chapter, we look into the way financial markets assess the market risk of twenty-two emerging economies. More precisely, the purpose of this chapter is to investigate how natural resources are incorporated in the way international investors perceived the ability to service external debt obligationsduring the 2003-2014 period. The results indicate that commodity prices are an important driver of sovereign spreads in the case of exporters while it is not the case for importing countries. In the second chapter, we investigate the link between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. Estimating a panel cointegration relation between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of both energy and commodity currencies and we show that when the oil market is highly volatile (downwards), currencies follow an "oil currency regime", terms-of trade becoming an important driver of the real exchange rate A conventional wisdom has spread in the literature stating that a high endowment in natural resources is detrimental for growth, yet the debate is still ongoing In this chapter, we aim at providing quantitative results on the magnitude of the link between natural resources and growth found in the literature, as well as discussing, on quantitative bases, whether the sources of heterogeneity are significant. To this end, we implement a meta-analysis based on 67 empirical studies that investigate the link between natural resources and growth, totaling 1405 estimates. The results show a "soft" curse that may be reverted together with the importance of institutions in mitigating the curse.

Cette étude porte sur l’investissement direct étranger et le tourisme international. Il s’agit d’une étude simultanée sur la demande touristique internationale à la fois en termes d’arrivées et de recettes ; ces éléments n’ont fait l’objet que de peu de travaux antérieurs, en raison de la spécificité du tourisme et les lacunes des données statistiques. Ce travail comporte deux parties. La première partie est divisée en deux chapitres. Le premier chapitre présente une analyse économique des IDE, y compris le secteur du tourisme et du tourisme international. Dans le deuxième chapitre, les principaux déterminants de l’IDE et du secteur touristique sont étudiés. La deuxième partie concerne les applications économétriques et le classement typologique des déterminants des IDE ; elle comporte deux chapitres. Dans le premier chapitre, les données statistiques, la méthodologie concernant les statistiques descriptives, et les modèles économétriques sont étudiés afin de démontrer le lien d’interdépendance et d’interaction. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’analyse des tests des pays concernés. L’association des résultats des tests économétriques avec une étude de la monographie de chaque pays, permet d’établir un classement des déterminants d’IDE à destination touristique. / This work focuses on foreign direct investment and international tourism. It is a simultaneous study in tourism demand international both in terms of arrivals and revenue; These elements have been little the subject of earlier work, due to the specificity of tourism and the shortcomings of statistical data. This work consists of two parts. The first is divided into two chapters. In the first chapter, it comes to the economic analysis of the IDE, including the sector of tourism and international tourism. In the second chapter, the main determinants of FDI and tourism are studied. The second part concerns the econometric applications and the classification of the typology of the determinants of FDI; it includes two chapters. In the first chapter, statistical data, the methodology for descriptive statistics and econometric models are studied in order to demonstrate the link of interdependence and the relationship of interaction. The second chapter is devoted to the analysis of tests of the countries concerned. By combining the results of econometric tests, a study of the product monograph of each country, it is permitted to establish a ranking of the determinants of FDI to tourist destination.

Submitted by Michel Ferreira Cardia Haddad (michel1404@yahoo.com.br) on 2013-01-16T18:22:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dissertação - Michel Haddad.pdf: 3234670 bytes, checksum: 87ebc92b5b29bcb72a2ee1b8b8e9c651 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br) on 2013-01-16T18:23:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dissertação - Michel Haddad.pdf: 3234670 bytes, checksum: 87ebc92b5b29bcb72a2ee1b8b8e9c651 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-01-16T18:27:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dissertação - Michel Haddad.pdf: 3234670 bytes, checksum: 87ebc92b5b29bcb72a2ee1b8b8e9c651 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-18 / O presente estudo investiga a existência de contágio financeiro entre os países do G20, com base em uma análise sobre os retornos dos principais índices de ações, abrangendo o período de 2000 a 2012. A abordagem utilizada consiste na utilização de modelos multivariados de volatilidade da família DCC-GARCH, na versão proposta por Engle e Sheppard (2001). Com base nos testes efetuados, conclui-se que houve mudanças estruturais nas séries analisadas em praticamente todos os 14 países analisados, sendo que os resultados obtidos demonstram evidências favoráveis para a hipótese de contágio financeiro entre países do G20. Verificou-se também que dentre as diversas crises financeiras ocorridas durante o período analisado, a Crise do Subprime destaca-se das demais crises, devido a sua magnitude e velocidade com que se propagou, afetando tanto países desenvolvidos como países emergentes. / This study investigates the existence of financial contagion among the G20 countries, based on an analysis of the returns of main stock indices, covering the period from 2000 to 2012. The approach consists of using multivariate models of volatility family DCC-GARCH, as proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). Based on econometric tests, it was concluded that there were structural changes in the series analyzed from virtually all 14 countries analyzed, and the results show evidence favorable to the hypothesis of financial contagion among G20 countries. It was also found that among the various financial crises that occurred during the reporting period, the Subprime Crisis stands out from other crises, due to its magnitude and speed of spread, affecting both developed and emerging countries.

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Research studies on portfolio diversification have tended to focus on developed markets and paid less attention to emerging markets. Traditionally, correlation analysis has been used to determine potential benefits from diversification but current studies have shifted focus from correlation analysis to exploring cointegration analysis and other forms of tests such as the Vector Error Correction Methodology. The research seeks to find if it is beneficial for a South African investor to diversify their portfolio of emerging market equities over a long-term period. Daily weighted share indices for the period of January 1996 to November 2008 were collected and analysed through the application of the Johansen cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. Granger Causality tests were also performed to established whether one variable can be useful in forecasting another variable. The study found that there was at least one statistically significant long-run relationship between the emerging markets. After testing for unit roots for all the share indices and their first difference using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Philips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, similar conclusions were m~de. All the unit root tests and their levels could not be rejected for all the series. However, unit root tests on the first differences were rejected, meaning that all series are of order 1(1) - evidence of cointegration. Simply put, emerging markets tend not to drift apart over time. This suggests that emerging markets offer limited benefits to investors who are looking to add some risk to their portfolios. In addition, the study also found evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality (Granger-Cause tests) between markets. This implies that the conditions for a particular market are exogenous of the other market. The study concludes that emerging markets are gradually adopting the same profile as developed markets.

The results of this thesis suggest that investors should invest in portfolios consisting of the Standard and Poor's 500, the Ten Composite Index and the ten founding stock exchanges, rather than only invest in either the ten founding stock exchanges or Standard and Poor's 500.