We study whether the \"China shock\'\", defined as China\'s rapid emergence in global markets, caused environmental impacts in Brazilian municipalities, since previous evidence points to effects on real wages and formal sector employment over the period of 2000 to 2010. Building on recent theoretical developments, we implement a shift-share strategy to explore variation in economic specialization between municipalities and find that China\'s direct influence on the deforestation of the Amazon and Cerrado was on average insignificant, which is supported by the literature. On the other hand, China\'s demand for commodities seemed to increase pollution-related mortality of children in mining municipalities, a result obtained by comparing it to mortality caused by other factors. However, we show that this is most likely explained by a municipality\'s degree of specialization in mining activities rather than its exposure to trade with China. We conclude that the environmental effects of the China shock on Brazilian municipalities were small, if not negligible. / Investigamos se o \"choque China\'\", definido como a rápida ascensão da China nos mercados internacionais, causou impactos ambientais em municípios brasileiros, uma vez que estudos anteriores identificaram efeitos sobre o salário real e emprego formal ao longo do período de 2000 a 2010. Orientados por avanços recentes na teoria, nós usamos uma estratégia shift-share para explorar diferenças na especialização econômica de municípios e encontramos que a influência direta da China sobre o desmatamento da Amazônia e do Cerrado foi na média insignificante, o que vai ao encontro da literatura. Por outro lado, a demanda por commodities da China pareceu elevar a mortalidade infantil causada por doenças relacionadas à poluição em municípios mineradores, um resultado obtido ao se compará-la com mortes por outras causas. Todavia, nós mostramos que a explicação mais provável é o grau de especialização do município em atividades de mineração, e não o quanto ele estava exposto ao comércio com a China. Concluímos que os impactos ambientais do choque China sobre municípios brasileiros foram pequenos, senão negligenciáveis.

This paper examines the potential impact of the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum on employment using county-level data. This study finds that although employment has increased in steel and aluminum related manufacturing industries, it has decreased in a significant downstream industry of manufacturers of steel products. Furthermore, I analyzed the difference in employment trends between counties that voted majority Trump in the 2016 presidential election and counties that voted majority Clinton, and between counties that experienced marginal victories and counties that voted solidly Democrat or Republican. I find that Trump counties have experienced the impact of the tariffs more strongly than Clinton counties, whether positive or negative. Similarly, swing counties have seen a much larger positive trend in employment in the primary metal refinement and processing industries, and a much larger negative trend in steel product manufacturing from purchased steel compared to non-swing counties.

Historically, credit market conditions have been shown to impact economic activity, at times severely. For instance, in the late 2000s, the United States experienced a financial crisis that seized domestic and foreign credit markets. The ensuing lack of access to credit brought about a steep decline in output and a sluggish recovery. Accordingly, policymakers commonly take steps to mitigate the effects of adverse credit market conditions and, at times, conduct unconventional monetary policy once traditional policy tools become ineffective. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding monetary policy, the flow of credit, financial crises, and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I describe monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit in the U.S. and analyze the role of upstream and downstream credit conditions and financial crises on international trade in a global supply chain. The first chapter assesses the impact of monetary policy shocks on credit reallocation and evaluates the importance of theoretical transmission mechanisms. Compustat data covering 1974 through 2017 is used to compute quarterly measures of credit flows. I find that expansionary monetary policy is associated with positive long-term credit creation and credit reallocation. These impacts are larger for long-term credit and for credit of financially constrained firms and firms that are perceived as risky to the lender. This is predicted by the balance sheet channel of monetary policy and mechanisms that reduce lenders’ risk perceptions and increase the tendency to search for yield. Furthermore, I find that, on average, the largest increases in credit creation resulting from monetary expansion are to firms that exhibit relatively low investment efficiency. These estimation results suggest that expansionary monetary policy may have a negative impact on future economic growth. The second chapter evaluates the quantitative effects of unconventional monetary policy in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This was a period when the traditional monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate) was constrained by the zero lower bound. We compute credit flow measures using Compustat data, and we employ a factor augmented vector autoregression to analyze unconventional monetary policy’s impact on the allocation of credit during the zero lower bound period. By employing policy counterfactuals, we find that unconventional monetary policy has a positive and simultaneous impact on credit creation and credit destruction and these impacts are larger in long-term credit markets. Applying this technique to analyze the flows of financially constrained and non-financially constrained borrowing firms, we find that unconventional monetary policy operates through the easing of collateral constraints because these effects are larger for small firms or those with high default probabilities. During the zero lower bound period, we also find that unconventional monetary policy brings about increases in credit creation for firms of relatively high investment efficiency. The third chapter pertains to the global trade collapse of the late 2000s. This collapse was due, in part, to strained credit markets and the vulnerability of exporters to adverse credit market conditions. The chapter evaluates the impact of upstream and downstream credit conditions and the differential effects of financial crises on bilateral trade. I find that upstream and downstream sectors’ needs for external financing is negatively associated with trade flows when the exporting or importing country’s cost of credit is high. However, I find that this effect is dampened for downstream sectors. I also find that downstream sectors’ value of collateral is positively associated with trade when the cost of credit is high in the importing country. High downstream trade credit dependence coupled with high costs of credit in the importing country also cause declines in imports. There are amplifying effects of credit costs for sectors that are highly dependent on external financing when the importing or exporting country is in financial crisis. Further, the magnitude is larger when the exporting country is in financial crisis. Finally, I find that these effects on trade flows are large when the exporting country is a developed economy, but they are muted for developing economies.

El comercio internacional se encuentra en crecimiento, por lo que es imprescindible facilitar herramientas y procesos que permitan afrontar el incremento en el tráfico de mercancías. En este contexto, la modalidad de despacho anticipado se presenta como una opción para disminuir tiempos y facilitar la nacionalización de mercancías. Sin embargo, el uso de dicha modalidad ha mostrado una reducción en el periodo 2016-2018, lo que incide inevitablemente en tiempos mayores en el despacho de mercancías y dificultades en el levante de la carga en 48 horas. En la presente investigación se determinaron los principales obstáculos que restringen un correcto uso de la modalidad de despacho anticipado con punto de llegada terminal portuario en la aduana marítima del callao y su relación con la desaceleración del despacho anticipado en el Perú. Se eligió la aduana marítima del Callao por la importancia del modo transporte marítimo en el movimiento de mercancías, además de la relevancia del Callao como nuestro principal puerto, lo que aumenta la representatividad de la muestra elegida. Se utilizó un procedimiento de entrevistas semiestructuradas, con una muestra de los diversos segmentos en estudio conformados por agentes de aduana e importadores de los diversos tipos y modalidades. Se encontraron las razones que influyen en la desaceleración del despacho anticipado vapor a camión con levante en 48 horas en los despachos numerados en los años 2016, 2017, 2018, luego del análisis de base de datos y las entrevistas analizadas por la herramienta atlas ti. Se identificó que los importadores desconocen el contenido de la modalidad de despacho vapor a camión, contando además con una pobre participación en el proceso de nacionalización. Lo anterior, sumado a la limitada infraestructura que poseen, explica alguna de las razones que restringen la participación de esta modalidad de despacho en la aduana marítima del callao. / International trade is in a state of growth, so it is essential to provide tools and processes that allow us to face the increase in merchandising traffic. In this context, the early dispatch modality is presented as an option to reduce time and facilitate to nationalization of goods. However, the use of this modality has shown a reduction in the period 2016-2018, which inevitably affects longer times in the clearance of goods and difficulties in lifting the load in 48 hours. In the present research are determined the main obstacles that restrict a correct use of early dispatch modality with port terminal as arrival point in Callao maritime customs and its relationship with the deceleration of early dispatch in Peru. Callao maritime customs was chosen because of the importance of the maritime transportation in the trade of goods, in addition to the relevance of Callao as our main port, which increases the representativeness of the chosen sample. A semi-structured interview procedure was used, with a sample of various segments under study made up of customs agents and importers of various types and modalities. The reasons that influence the deceleration of early dispatch steam clearance with lift in 48 hours in the offices numbered in the years 2016, 2017, 2018, after a database analysis and interviews analyzed by “Atlas Ti” tool. It was identified that importers do not know the content of the steam- truck clearance modality, also counting on a poor participation in the nationalization process. The later, added to the limited infrastructure they have, explains some of the reasons that restrict the use of early dispatch modality when clearing in Callao maritime customs. / Tesis

Little is known about the impact of nontrade issues on developing countries entering trade agreements. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) represents an attempt to set high-standard trade rules for participating countries in the Asian-Pacific region that require the inclusion of wide-ranging nontrade issues in the TPPA. This general qualitative study explored the economic, social, and political consequences for developing countries by including nontrade issues in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). The overarching research question addressed whether nontrade issues in FTAs detract developing countries from achieving their trade goals. This study was guided by the theory of comparative advantage propounded by Ricardo and the focus on trade in goods and services. This general qualitative study used multiple sources of data collection including documentation-primary and secondary online and digital archival data, bibliographies, textbooks, and scholarly trade journals; researcher's notes; and interviews of 15 participants (13 economists and 2 trade unionists). All data were coded using open, selective, and axial coding followed by Braun and Clarke's thematic analysis procedure. Data analysis revealed 4 themes that crystallized the findings within the context of the research; the role, ramifications of nontrade issues, trade barriers, and the distraction of developing countries from achieving their goals-tariff reductions, market access, jobs, and economic growth. The key finding of this study was the interest of participants in wages, health, and safety of workers in FTAs. The implications for positive social change include recommendations for welfare enhancement gained by trade policymakers' understanding of the consequences of nontrade issues in FTAs.

This dissertation is composed of three chapters regarding international trade and environmental regulation. The first chapter focuses on the relationship between port ownership and the port R\&D investment. I investigate whether a larger degree of private involvement in the port sector makes for a higher level of welfare, as well as an improvement in port performance. I establish the stage games to analyze the reciprocal international trade. The theoretical findings indicate that the endowment of population plays an essential role in choosing the optimal port ownership. In the second chapter, I investigate the effect of port pollution regulation on port ownership. I incorporate the regulation tax on emissions from port cargo handling into the international duopoly trade model. The results of the stage games suggest the same ownership of the ports in both countries. I also extend the categories of port structures to include the transfer of port ownership to the other country. The policy implication is to have the small country own both ports, which is opposite to the port governance in reality. In the third chapter, I explore the equilibrium port ownership structures without other policy issues or regulation on the port sector being considered. The influence of country size per se suggests that a small country should privatize its port in the context of a privatized port in the large country. For a large country, it is better to choose a type of ownership different from the small country's. In addition, it is the country whose population is greater than a third of the scale in the other country that should own both ports.

What is the relationship between networks and unit-level outcomes, such as the international trade network among states and domestic rule of law or repression? Do these effects hold after accounting for actors' strategic selection of network ties? I explore these questions by building a multi-player game, in which players make two simultaneous decisions: (1) whether to form trade links and with who, and (2) whether to increase their trade benefits by improving their type, associated with the level of domestic economic risk factors. The model predicts an endogenous relationship between the number of direct trade partners and the probability of playing High Type: High Type states have more direct trade partners, and the number of trade partners has a positive effect on the probability of choosing High Type. A state's type is also affected by indirect trade connections--counter-intuitively, indirect trade has a negative effect on the probability of choosing High Type. In Chapters 3 and 4, I test the general predictions of the theoretical model, by applying them to two distinct areas of international research. In Chapter 3, I conceptualize a state's type as the level of domestic rule of law enforcement. States with strong rule of law enforcement are regarded as High Type states, because they guarantee lower cost of operations within their borders, by enforcing property rights and contractual law. Weak rule of law states, on the other hand, can be thought of as Low Type states, as business operations within such states are constantly threatened by a risk of expropriations, inefficiencies associated with corruption within the judicial system, and other manifestations of poor business practices. In Chapter 4, I recast the theoretical model by showing how a state's type can be conceptualized as a state's domestic respect for human rights. Highlighting the economic costs of repression, such as higher economic risk, negative publicity, and decreased quality of human capital, I argue that these costs are suffered by both the domestic economic elites and their international business partners. These business elites can, however, alleviate their losses resulting from such costs by either pressuring their government to embrace stronger human rights protections or, when this option is unavailable, by setting up channels for indirect economic transactions through states with more favorable political environments. To test each Chapter's empirical predictions, model the simultaneity between network formation and effect, using a statistical estimator developed by Ripley, Snijders, and Preciado (2012). This statistical estimator, referred to as a continuous Markov Chain exponential random graph model (MC ERGM), allows for a close mimicking of the theoretical model by simultaneously modeling two dependent variables: network formation and its effect on actors' behavior. The results of the statistical tests provide some support the theoretical predictions.

Most of the world's equipment is produced in a small number of rich countries. In 1996, countries in the top decile of cross-country income distribution produced 61% of world equipment and countries in the bottom decile produced only 0.2%. Rich and poor countries also differ in their dependence on imports for equipment. In 1996, poor countries imported more than half of their equipment. Structures, on the other hand, are largely domestically produced. World pattern of production and trade in equipment and structures is potentially an important determinant of composition of capital across countries. The composition of capital differs significantly across rich and poor countries. In 1996, equipment constituted over 21% of the capital in 5 richest countries and only 8% in 5 poorest countries. While equipment capital-output ratio was a factor of more than 6 between rich and poor countries, structures capital-output ratio was less than a factor of 2. In this dissertation, I determine the quantitative relationship between international trade and cross-country capital composition. I, then, utilize the results on this relationship to examine the implications for economic development. The starting point of my analysis is a multi-country model of trade in capital goods. There are three tradable sectors: equipment, structures and intermediate goods. Countries differ in their average level of productivity in each of the tradable sectors. International trade is subject to bilateral iceberg costs, which comprise of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. The theoretical model implies that the composition of capital is a function of country-specific productivity parameters and bilateral trade costs. I structurally estimate these parameters to match the pattern of bilateral trade in a sample of 76 countries. Equipped with country specific productivity parameters and trade costs, I determine the quantitative relationship between international trade and cross-country capital composition. The calibrated model generates capital composition differences consistent with the data. Variation in log equipment to output ratio is 1.09 in data and 1.26 in the model. The model also generates cross-country differences in investment rate, income per worker and prices consistent with the data. Through counterfactual exercises, I study the gains associated with reductions in trade costs. If all trade costs are eliminated, poor countries' welfare would increase by 39% and rich countries' welfare would increase by only 8%. If barriers only to equipment trade are eliminated, poor countries' welfare gain would be 9% and rich countries' welfare gain would be 1.4%. Reductions in barriers to flow of capital goods facilitate a more efficient allocation of the world stock of capital goods across countries and hence, are quantitatively important for economic development.

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the understanding of international programs in preparing participants for effective engagement in the world's economy and the complexity of multiple societies and cultures. The study's objective is to identify and assess the skills and competencies that are in demand for graduates of international programs, from both the United States and foreign perspectives, and their main economic social and civic contributions. This research project develops, pilots and validates a list of critical competencies and skills for persons starting careers in international settings, creating a unique and valuable product. In addition, the project uses the validated listing for gathering and analyzing preliminary empirical data to help understand and evaluate the outcomes and importance of these competencies from three different--yet related perspectives--major employers, preparation institutions, and recent graduates of the program. The researcher will address the following questions: 1. What are the competencies and skills being required of employees and perspective employees as identified by the businesses and the corporate world? 2. What are the competencies and skills being emphasized by academic institutions in preparing prospective employees for the world of work? 3. To what extent are the competencies and skills of academic programs congruent with the required competencies and skills of the corporate world? The products of this work provide for the first time a valuable foundation for policy, planning, research, evaluation, and marketing the nature and importance of high quality, well prepared higher education graduates to meet the needs of our country's global workforce.

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