本文嘗試建立一個無限期的兩部門小型開放經濟模型。本模型的特 用一 個收益函數(或稱 GNP 函數)，代表一般化的兩部門生產 討進口限額政 策對資本累積和經常帳的影響。本文同時探討採倥B政策和放寬進口限額 兩種政策，並得到不少新的結論。例如cksher-Ohlin 模型中，若政府放 寬限額政策，並不會影響國內璊妒矕薛▼躑□F這與傳統靜態理論強調限 額量的多寡會影響國孝祭蚺j不相同。同時，對資本累積、經常帳之影響 必須視財貨K集度而定。若進口財為資本(勞力)密集財，資本存量減少(增 常帳不定(惡化)，動態福利水準上升。但在特定要素模型下，B則會使國 內價格下降，資本累積增加，經常帳惡化。

Esse trabalho se propõe a estimar um modelo de apreçamento de ativos de capital financeiro intertemporal, em inglês, intertemporal capital asset pricing model ICAPM, utilizando as inovações produzidas de duas variáveis de estado: o índice máximo de Sharpe e a taxa real de juros. Tais variáveis são supostas formadas a partir de um processo de difusão de reversão à média: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. A estimação do modelo completo, ICAPM, é feita no arcabouço de cross-section e comparada com a estimação do modelo de três fatores de Fama-French, tanto em retornos mensais quanto semanais. O modelo ICAPM não mostrou um grau de ajuste melhor que o modelo de Fama-French. / This work intends to estimate an intertemporal capital asset pricing model, by using the innovations of two state variables: maximum Sharpe index and real interest rate. These variables are supposed created by a mean reverting diffusion process: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. The complete estimation of ICAPM is made in a cross-section approach and it is compared with Fama-French three factors model, as in monthly return as weekly return. ICAPM model does not have a better goodness of fit than Fama-French Model.

Esse trabalho se propõe a estimar um modelo de apreçamento de ativos de capital financeiro intertemporal, em inglês, intertemporal capital asset pricing model ICAPM, utilizando as inovações produzidas de duas variáveis de estado: o índice máximo de Sharpe e a taxa real de juros. Tais variáveis são supostas formadas a partir de um processo de difusão de reversão à média: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. A estimação do modelo completo, ICAPM, é feita no arcabouço de cross-section e comparada com a estimação do modelo de três fatores de Fama-French, tanto em retornos mensais quanto semanais. O modelo ICAPM não mostrou um grau de ajuste melhor que o modelo de Fama-French. / This work intends to estimate an intertemporal capital asset pricing model, by using the innovations of two state variables: maximum Sharpe index and real interest rate. These variables are supposed created by a mean reverting diffusion process: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. The complete estimation of ICAPM is made in a cross-section approach and it is compared with Fama-French three factors model, as in monthly return as weekly return. ICAPM model does not have a better goodness of fit than Fama-French Model.

Saving is viewed as deferred consumption and studied within the framework of intertemporal choice. The literature, drawn from psychology, economics and economic psychology, suggests that whilst there have been many theoretical references to the relationship between individual differences associated with intertemporal decision-making and saving, and these individual difference variables have been studied in relation to other behaviour, there is a lack of empirical research investigating their relationship with saving. The particular variables of interest are delay of gratification, time preference (impatience), self control, impulsiveness and consideration of future consequences. This thesis presents a series of empirical studies which used carefully constructed or selected measures to investigate the relationship between individual differences associated with intertemporal decision-making and saving. A variety of methods were used. The first two studies measured delay of gratification using a behavioural choice paradigm and investigated its relationship with saving. The next three studies measured a construct known as the consideration of future consequences and examined its relationship with saving. In-depth interviews, focusing on impulsiveness and impatience provided a more realistic investigation of the personality structure of delay, and aided the development of quantitative measures of impulsiveness. Secondary analysis of Dutch panel data enabled the hypotheses to be tested with a larger dataset and shifts in assets as a measure of saving. The group of studies culminated in a postal survey of married couple households, allowing a multivariate investigation of all the individual difference constructs which had been developed and investigated. This final study also addressed issues such as the relative influence of psychological data from both spouses in a decision-making unit. The results are discussed throughout the thesis in the light of their implications for psychology, economics, policy-making and marketing, as well as for economic psychology. The main contributions are some new measures of theoretically relevant individual difference constructs, which will require further testing in order to prove their worth

No description available.

Risky intertemporal choice is a fairly new topic in the realm of behavioral economics that involves examining the interactions between individuals’ time and risk preferences. Previous research has looked at the gains and mixed domain, but little to no research has been done in the loss domain. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how people respond to risky gambles in the loss domain given real world time delays. The thesis focuses on changes in attitudes towards risk caused by temporal distance rather than how people discount risky prospects. Based on Construal Level Theory we predict that there will be a greater focus on outcomes over probabilities in delayed gambles compared to immediate ones, and hence, individuals will become more risk-averse for delayed gambles that are in the loss domain. We conducted two experiments to test this prediction. Results revealed that while subjects in the immediate resolution group were significantly more risk-seeking than future resolution groups in both experiments, the difference in risk attitudes between two delayed resolutions depend on how big the difference between two delays is.

NO ENGLISH ABSTRACT.

Risky intertemporal choice is a fairly new topic in the realm of behavioral economics that involves examining the interactions between individuals’ time and risk preferences. Previous research has looked at the gains and mixed domain, but little to no research has been done in the loss domain. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how people respond to risky gambles in the loss domain given real world time delays. The thesis focuses on changes in attitudes towards risk caused by temporal distance rather than how people discount risky prospects. Based on Construal Level Theory we predict that there will be a greater focus on outcomes over probabilities in delayed gambles compared to immediate ones, and hence, individuals will become more risk-averse for delayed gambles that are in the loss domain. We conducted two experiments to test this prediction. Results revealed that while subjects in the immediate resolution group were significantly more risk-seeking than future resolution groups in both experiments, the difference in risk attitudes between two delayed resolutions depend on how big the difference between two delays is.

Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-07T18:48:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 000399430-Texto+Parcial-0.pdf: 291154 bytes, checksum: b0c55cc0b93819c8d50f1df21fff2538 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / The dissertation has for objective the exam of the subjects about Time and Law in the Brazilian Civil Procedure. For so much, the research was developed in three chapters. In the first chapter, it is drawn a conceptual analysis of the Time, in the philosophers perspective as Santo Agostinho, Leibniz, Kant, Hegel, Heidegger. At the end of this first chapter, we examined the concept of conflict of laws in the time, and its formation in the Brazilian Law. After, in the second chapter, we attempted the analysis os the effects produced in the tension between Time and Law in the first three waves of reforms of the Brazilian Code of Civil Procedure. In the last chapter, we analyzed the laws that integrate the fourth and last wave of reforms of the Code of Civil Procedure. In the conclusion we clarified controversy points in the accomplished research. / A dissertação tem por objetivo o exame das questões sobre Tempo e Direito no processo civil brasileiro. Para tanto, a pesquisa foi desenvolvida em três capítulos. No primeiro capítulo, é esboçada uma análise conceitual de Tempo, na perspectiva de filósofos como Santo Agostinho, Leibniz, Kant, Hegel, Heidegger. Ao término do primeiro capítulo, examinamos o conceito de conflito de leis no tempo e sua formação no direito brasileiro. Depois, no segundo capítulo, intentamos a análise dos efeitos produzidos na tensão entre Tempo e Direito nas primeiras três ondas de reformas do Código de Processo Civil. Na conclusão clarificamos pontos de controvérsia na pesquisa realizada.

Thesis submitted by Jinrui Pan for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of Manchester, and entitled, “Time and Risk Preferences: Theoretical Models and Applications.” Date of submission 2014.This thesis makes contributions to two important areas of behavioural economics, namely individual decision making over time and under risk. Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 presents a new discounting function for analysing intertemporal choice. Liminal discounting, the model developed here, generalises exponential discounting in a parsimonious way. It allows for well-known departures, whilst maintaining its elegance and tractability. It also can be seen as an extension of quasi-hyperbolic discounting to continuous time. A liminal discounter has a constant rate of time preference before and after some threshold time; the liminal point. A preference foundation is provided, showing that the liminal point is derived endogenously from behaviour. Chapter 3 proposes an axiomatic model featuring a differential treatment of attitudes towards risk and time. Such distinction has been strongly suggested by experimental research when studying intertemporal choice, since the future is inherently risky. In the proposed model, non-linear probability distortions are incorporated into a dynamic model with discounted utility. Time is captured by a general discounting function independent of probabilities and outcomes. Utility of outcomes is captured by standard vNM utility independent of time. A two-parameter probability weighting function captures intertemporal probabilistic risk attitudes, with one parameter being constant over time, the other being time-dependent. An index of optimism is derived that depends on both parameters, which allows to model the observed high risk tolerance for delayed lotteries. Further, a preference foundation is provided. Interestingly, the model allows behaviour to be consistent with discounted expected utility, when risk is sufficiently distant from the present.