abstract: Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. / The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate water quality and runoff characteristics in the Jenínský stream catchment. For this purpose analysis and data processing was performed. Two subcatchments, called J1 and J2, were monitored at this catchment area. Period of interest involves years 2008-2012. Results were compared with the period 1983-1985 when most of the land was used as arable land. The decrease in the concentrations of all evaluated indicators was caused by grassing and reduction in the use of fertilisers. Ranges of the values of selected indicators also decreased distinctly and their concentrations are stabilized. The greatest decrease of 79% (J1) and 87% (J2) was found in average ammonium concentrations. A beneficial effect of land use change to extensive agricultural management on water quality was proven.

A bacia hidrográfica do Arroio Marrecas, localizada na porção nordeste do município de Caxias do Sul, RS, abriga os principais mananciais de água para abastecimento da crescente população na região, além de importantes fragmentos de Mata Atlântica e Campos Sulinos. Este estudo buscou analisar as alterações de uso das terras em escala espaço-temporal nos últimos 48 anos, analisar a relação entre a qualidade das águas superficiais, utilizando dados de campanhas de monitoramento entre 2010 e 2011, e o uso atual das terras e simular a dinâmica de cenários futuros para um período de 15 anos. As ferramentas utilizadas na primeira etapa foram interpretação visual de imagens de satélite e fotos aéreas, apoiadas em campanhas de levantamento a campo. A posteriori, foi construído um banco de dados geoespaciais e a simulação espacial utilizando o modelo Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). Os resultados obtidos na primeira etapa indicam um decréscimo das áreas originalmente ocupadas por campos e matas, o que pode ser atribuído ao crescente processo de urbanização e a expansão de atividades agrícolas intensivas como fruticultura e silvicultura, similar àquela observada em outras regiões na Serra Gaúcha A avaliação da qualidade de água mostra que a alteração na concentração de alguns parâmetros relacionou-se com o uso das terras. Embora os parâmetros Turbidez, Fósforo Total e Coliformes Termotolerantes tenham ultrapassado os limites de Classe 2 (Conama nº 257/2005) em algumas campanhas, a análise de correlação não conseguiu discriminar fatores explanatórios de maneira conclusiva. Quando analisados os resultados da modelagem, observou-se que a dinâmica de realocação dos usos e coberturas das terras nos planos de informação são definidos ou explicitados prioritariamente pelos seguintes fatores explanatórios: Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico e Neossolo Litólico, declividade e elevação do terreno. Análises apoiadas em ferramentas de estatística, geoprocessamento e campanhas de levantamento in situ como as aplicadas neste estudo podem ser instrumentos cruciais para o entendimento da evolução dos usos das terras, servindo de referencial para resolução de potenciais conflitos e mitigação dos impactos ambientais e socioeconômicos que se apresentam. / The Arroio Marrecas watershed, located in the northeastern section Caxias do Sul municipality, is a major drinking water source for the growing population in the region, and contains important fragments of subtropical forests and grasslands. This study investigates land use changes in a spatiotemporal scale in the Arroio Marrecas watershed in the last 48 years, analyze the relationship between the quality of surface water, using data from monitoring campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011, and the current land use and simulates the dynamics of future scenarios for a period of 15 years. Tools used in the first stage were visual interpretation of satellite images and aerial photos, supported by the field survey campaigns were used. Subsequently, it was built from a geospatial database and the spatial simulation using the model Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S). The results obtained in the first step indicate a decrease in the areas originally occupied by forests and grasslands, which can be attributed to increasing urbanization and the expansion of intensive agricultural production such as horticulture and forestry, similar to that observed in other parts of the highlands of Rio Grande do Sul (Serra Gaúcha) The evaluation of water quality shows that the change in concentration of some parameters was related to the use of the land. Water quality parameters like turbidity, total phosphorus and thermotolerant coliform were above Class 2 limits (CONAMA Resolution 257/2005) in some campaigns, a correlation analysis could not conclusively discriminate the main explanatory factor. On the other hand, a modeling exercise of future ladn use scenarios with the CLUE-S model revealed that dynamic reallocation of land use/land cover were defined primarily by soil classes Cambissolo Háplico, Cambissolo Húmico and Neossolo Litólico, elevation and slope. Analysis supported by statistical geoprocessing tools and field surveys as applied in this study can be crucial tools for understanding the evolution of land uses and serve to resolve potential conflicts and mitigate environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

Abstract. Like other developing countries, forest conversion to agricultural land has been a common practice in Kenya for the last four decades. Apart from illegal logging, the main cause is the growing population. For most developing countries where majority rely on agriculture for food production, conversion of forests into agricultural land is likely to occur. Kenya is one among such countries and is where the study basin is located. Knowledge of hydrological studies is crucial for proper planning and decision making of limited water resources in river basins. Even in regions where data is limited, changes in land use is a concern to many basin communities over the globe including Arror inhabitants since it has an impact on stream flows. Despite Arror downstream communities’ claims on reducing river flows, scientific proof on this is lacking. Such kind of belief/claim can result to conflicts (Downstream vs. Upstream water users). The main objective of this thesis was therefore to determine the effect of land use changes on Arror basin hydrology, focusing on the impact of deforestation since it has been the main land use change for the last four decades. The overall intention of the study is to verify the downstream basin’s inhabitant’s hypothetical thinking and also create an information foundation base for other future studies in the basin. Based on the lessons learned in this study, several recommendations have been highlighted, including land satellite rainfall data to augment the rainfall data obtained from the relatively sparse rain gauge network in the basin.

A Mata Atlântica é o bioma mais ameaçado do Brasil. Sua degradação substancial ocorreu desde a chegada dos europeus ao país por meio da mudança de uso solo e pela exploração da floresta. No entanto, pouco se sabe a respeito das conseqüências hidrológicas e biogeoquímicas da mudança de uso do solo nos domínios do referido ecossistema. Neste contexto, as microbacias hidrográficas têm sido objeto de muitos estudos devido sua alta sensibilidade aos processos hidrológicos e biogeoquímicos ocorrentes dentro delas. No presente estudo, calculou-se o balanço hídrico anual de uma microbacia coberta por pastagem na região do litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo. Essa bacia originalmente era coberta por floresta ombrófila densa. Em adição, amostrou-se água do escoamento do riacho, escoamento superficial, solução do solo (30, 50 e 90 cm de profundidade), água subterrânea, e precipitação de 05/12/2007 à 04/12/2008 para a análise de nitrogênio inorgânico. O conteúdo de nitrogênio (N-NH4 + e N-NO3 -) foi determinado por análise por injeção em fluxo (FIA). Com o intuito de elucidar os processos hidrológicos que geram escoamento direto, mediu-se a condutividade hidráulica do solo em condição de saturação a 15, 30, 50 e 90 cm com um permeâmetro de carga constante. Como resultados, foi obtido que o sistema hidrográfico possui evapotranspiração, calculada para o período de estudo, de 697 mm (precipitação anual e deflúvio anual, respectivamente, de 1433 mm e 736 mm); por meio da curva de duração de fluxo, o escoamento de base foi inferida como a via hidrológica com maior contribuição ao deflúvio anual. O escoamento superficial é pouco expressivo devido ao fato que 77% dos eventos de chuva se enquadram na classe de intensidade de 0-5 mm h-1 que está abaixo da condutividade hidráulica do solo em condição de saturação a 15 cm de profundidade (22 mm h-1). O baixo coeficiente de escoamento superficial (0,01) obtido em parcelas corrobora essa assertiva. Ademais, como predominam chuvas de baixa intensidade, apesar de haver degradação física do solo, não espera-se diferenças expressivas na produção de escoamento direto. A maioria das amostras tiveram suas concentrações abaixo do limite de detecção (0,71 µM e 0,35 µM para N-NH4 + e N-NO3 - respectivamente). Na maioria dos compartimentos e processos hidrológicos o amônio predominou em relação ao nitrato. Para a solução do solo, percebe-se que há pulsos de nitrogênio inorgânico quando o solo se torna menos úmido. Nota-se pelo balanço de nitrogênio inorgânico associado à água que a microbacia possui um ganho líquido (0,95 kg N ha-1 ano-1) de nitrogênio já que o influxo foi equivalente a 1,10 kg N ha-1 ano-1 e o efluxo foi de 0,15 kg N ha-1 ano-1. Em relação aos estudos semelhantes conduzidos em florestas e pastagens, percebe-se que a pastagem é muito mais pobre que as florestas e ainda mais pobre do que muitas pastagens no tocante ao nitrogênio inorgânico o que provavelmente decorre do método de a mudança de uso do solo, da ausência de fertilização, da alta taxa de lotação e da idade da mesma. / The Atlantic forest is the most endangered biome of Brazil. Its significant destruction has taken place since the arrival of Europeans settlers in the country. These Europeans destructed most part of it by changing land use and also due to forest exploitation. In this way, very little information is known about the hydrological and biogeochemical consequences of land use change in the region of this once huge ecosystem. In this context, small catchments have being used to assess these cited consequences of land use change due to their high sensitivity of hydrological and biogeochemical process that occur within them. In the present study, the annual water budget of a small watershed covered by grass (pasture) located in the north coast of the Sao Paulo State, Brazil has been calculated. Additionally, (1) stream water, (2) surface runoff, (3) soil solution (at 30, 50 and 90 cm depth), (4) groundwater and (5) precipitation were sampled weekly and, afterwards, due to analytical reasons, (2) and (3) were sampled biweekly, to determine the concentration of inorganic nitrogen (N-NH4 + and N-NO3 -) by FIA. Moreover, aiming to clarify the possible hydrological process of stormflow, the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity was measured at various depths (15, 30, 50 and 90 cm). The results obtained are: the evapotranspiration of the watershed vegetation, calculated for the study period, was 697 mm (annual precipitation and annual water yield, respectively, de 1433 mm e 736 mm). By the flow duration curve, the baseflow was inferred as the main hydrological pathway that contributes to the total annual water yield. The surface runoff was not very expressive for the reason that 77% of rain intensity was sited in the class of 0 - 5 mm h-1 that is lower than the median of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity at 15 cm depth (22 mm h-1). The low runoff coefficient (0,01) calculated from the runoff plots assures this result. Although soil physical degradation is present, it is not expected an expressive increment of direct runoff generation for the reason that low intensity rainfall predominates and does not exceed Ksat at 15 cm. Little inorganic nitrogen is found in the hydrological processes and pools. The majority of the samples had their inorganic nitrogen concentration below detection limits (0,71 µM e 0,35 µM for N-NH4 + e N-NO3 - respectively). In most pools and hydrological pathways the ammonium predominates against nitrate. For soil solution, it is notable that more inorganic nitrogen was found when the soil gets less wet. The observation of inorganic nitrogen balance dissolved in the water of rain and streamflow exhibits a net gain (0,95 kg N ha-1 year-1) of inorganic nitrogen because the input was 1,10 kg N ha-1 year-1 and the output was 0,15 kg N ha-1 year-1. If the results of nitrogen in the pools are compared to other similar catchment studies with land uses of forest and also pasture in Brazil and elsewhere, it is possible to conclude that the pasture presented here is poorer than forests and even some pastures. This fact may be a consequence of the land use clearing method, the lack of fertilization, the high stocking rates and also due to the pasture age.

Na medida em que as demandas agrícolas continuam se expandido, aumenta a necessidade de que a produção agrícola garanta a conservação da diversidade e a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos. O intuito do trabalho é avaliar independentemente o efeito da distancia aos fragmentos florestais e a cobertura florestal numa escala local. Quantificamos a diversidade de abelhas e a formação de frutos em 24 cultivos de café dentro de paisagens complexas de 2km de radio, compostas por mosaico de usos da terra, café, Mata Atlântica (20 - 27%) e outros usos. Adicionalmente estimamos a contribuição das espécies na formação de frutos depois de uma visita única, em cinco dos 24 pontos amostrais. No total foram identificadas 31 abelhas que visitam o café, a maioria abelhas sem ferrão (Meliponini) e abelhas da família Halictidae. No existiu diferencia na formação de frutos depois das visitas únicas das diversas especies de abelhas, o que sugere que há uma complementaridade na provisão do serviço. No entanto, a maior produtividade esteve associada à abundância de abelhas nativas. Em geral, 8% foi o incremento associado ao papel das abelhas o qual diminuiu com aumento da distancia para os fragmentos de mata assim como também conforme aumentava a quantidade de café na escala local (400 m de raio no entorno do ponto amostral). O efeito negativo da distancia aos fragmentos reforça a importância da vegetação natural em prover diversidade de abelhas e por tanto o serviço de polinização. O efeito negativo da cobertura de café sobre a frutificação sugere que há um excesso de demanda que excede a capacidade dos polinizadores de prover o serviço dentro de paisagens complexas. Nossos resultados mostram que a estrutura da paisagem afeta a densidade, riqueza e composição de espécies de polinizadores. Por tanto recomendamos como estratégia para incrementar a produção de café, sem necessidade de aumentar a cobertura florestal, manegar as áreas agrícolas para aumentar a dispersão entre fragmentos florestais e plantios de café, com o intuito de criar paisagens mais fragmentadas que facilitem o fluxo de polinizadores ao café / As the demands on agricultural lands continue to expand, effective strategies are urgently needed to manage agricultural production to guarantee biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision. Here we assessed independently the effect of forest isolation and local forest cover over bee diversity and on the provision of pollination service to coffee. We quantified bee diversity of flower visitors and fruit set in 24 coffee fields within three complex landscape of 2km radius surrounded by mosaic of coffee plantations, Atlantic forest fragments (20 - 27%), pastures and other lands uses. Additionally, we estimated species contribution to fruit set after single visit in five of the 24 coffee sites. In total we identified 31 bee species visiting coffee flowers, most being stingless bees (Meliponini tribe) and sweat bees (Halictidae). The absence of difference in fruit set after single visit by Apis and natives bee suggest that service complementation. Although, higher abundances of sweat bees and stingless bees were positively related to fruit set. Coffee fruit set was overall 8% higher in the presence of bees, and responded negatively to isolation from forest fragments and to high coffee cover at a local landscape scale (400 m radius landscape surrounding each sampled coffee bush). The negative association between isolation and fruit set reinforces the importance of natural vegetation to enhance bee diversity and therefore the provision of pollination service. The negative effect of coffee cover on fruit set suggests that the service demand can surpass pollinators\' capacity to provide service within complex landscape. Our results provide clear evidences that landscape structure can affect the abundance, richness and composition of pollinators\' species, and thus can indirectly regulate the provision of pollination service. Therefore we recommend, as a strategy to increase coffee yields without necessarily expanding forest cover, to manage agricultural landscapes in order to increase interspersion between forest fragments and coffee plantation thus a more patchy landscape mosaic that may facilitate pollinators flows to coffee crop

A agropecuária de larga escala é a principal responsável pelo desmatamento em áreas tropicais, e está inserida numa complexa cadeia produtiva que envolve desde a produção de insumos até a distribuição dos bens agropecuários aos consumidores finais. Esse arranjo em cadeia recebeu a denominação de agronegócio. O avanço da agropecuária de larga escala sobre áreas de vegetação nativa representa um trade off entre os benefícios econômicos do agronegócio e a perda de biodiversidade e de serviços ecossistêmicos. O Código Florestal (CF), ao estabelecer a obrigatoriedade de conservação de áreas de vegetação nativa em fazendas brasileiras mitiga parte dos impactos ambientais negativos gerados pela expansão das fronteiras agrícolas. Tendo em vista que o agronegócio toma suas decisões a partir dos resultados econômicos dos empreendimentos, na ausência de marcos regulatórios como o CF, taxações ou incentivos econômicos, o valor da conservação do capital natural não seria levado em consideração nas decisões a respeito do uso das terras. O Crédito Rural (CR) subsidiado constitui um dos principais incentivos econômicos ao agronegócio, financiando toda a cadeia produtiva, desde investimentos na compra de máquinas até o financiamento da comercialização dos produtos agropecuários. O objetivo geral desta tese de doutorado consiste em investigar a influência dos vetores econômicos e legais (destacando o CF e política de CR) nos efeitos do agronegócio sobre a conservação da vegetação nativa no Brasil. Os resultados apresentados ao longo desta tese contribuem para o entendimento de que, se a conservação ou restauração de vegetação nativa em propriedades privadas tiver como orientação exclusivamente os parâmetros econômicos de curto prazo, o resultado seria um padrão de uso das terras onde restariam poucas áreas de vegetação nativa, predominantemente em áreas de baixa aptidão agropecuária. Essa abordagem de livre mercado conduziria a uma situação que restringiria drasticamente a diversidade biológica e a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos. Marcos legais de ordenamento do uso das terras privadas lastreados em princípios científicos reconhecidos, como o CF, devem marcar a atuação do Estado no objetivo de garantir a preservação do capital natural e a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos também em áreas privadas com alto custo de oportunidade para a conservação biológica. Políticas de cross-compliance, que condicionam a concessão de incentivos econômicos ao adequado desempenho ambiental, representam a possibilidade de conciliação entre ganhos econômicos e ganhos ambientais. Estas políticas permitiriam que os recursos públicos, como os concedidos na forma de subsídios ao CR, sejam aplicados de forma mais justa, incentivando a redução dos passivos ambientais do agronegócio e de seus impactos negativos na sociedade / Large-scale agriculture is the main responsible for tropical deforestation, and it is embedded in a complex productive chain, from inputs production to trade of agricultural commodities. This chain arrangement is named agribusiness. The advance of large-scale agriculture over native vegetation areas represents a trade-off between the agribusiness economic benefits and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The Forest Code (FC) establishes mandatory native vegetation conservation areas in Brazilian farms, and doing so, it mitigates part of the negative environmental impacts from expansion of agricultural frontiers. Regarding that agribusiness take its decisions from the economic results of the ventures, the value for conservation of natural capital would not be taken into account in the land use decisions if there were not laws as FC, taxes or economic incentives. The subsidized Rural Credit (RC) constitutes one of the main economic incentives to agribusiness. It finances the entire productive chain, from investments on agricultural machinery to the trade of agricultural goods. The main objective of this doctorate thesis consists on investigating the influence of economic and legal (stressing CF and CR) driving forces on the effects of agribusiness on conservation of native vegetation in Brazil. The results presented in this thesis contribute to understand that, if conservation or restoration of native vegetation in private farms were oriented solely by short-term economic parameters, the result would be a land use pattern where a few native vegetation areas would stand, mainly in the less suitable areas for agriculture. This free-market approach would drive to a scenario that would dramatically hinder the biological diversity and the provision of ecosystem services. Science-based land use planning laws, as the FC, might guide the Government actions under the objective of ensuring the natural capital preservation and the provision of ecosystem services also in private areas that present high opportunity costs for biological conservation. Cross-compliance policies, which make the granting of economic incentives conditional to appropriate environmental performance, represent the potential conciliation between economic and environmental gains. These policies would allow that public resources, as those granted as subsides to RC, would be invested in a fairer manner, fostering the reduction of agribusiness environmental liabilities and of agricultural negative impacts on society

Accurate forecasting and up-to-date warning is very important for the coastal people to protect them from the devastation of cyclone. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and their concern organizations have important role to provide proper and accurate cyclone forecasting and warning message to the people. The coastal zone of the country is the most precarious place to natural disaster due to its geographical location, frequent formation of cyclone in the Bay, poor infrastructure and insecure socio-economic conditions of the people.  Accurate and timely warning, good infrastructure such as roads, transportations, cyclone shelters, cyclone preparedness training centers can reduce  human vulnerability to cyclone in the coastal area of the country. Due to very high population growth rate in the coastal zone, new settlements are being built in the areas which were under agricultural land, forest or bare before. To study the people’s perceptions on cyclone forecasting, warning and management system in Bangladesh, two questionnaire surveys have been done, one with meteorologists of BMD and the other with the people living in the coastal zone. As land use change has great impact on human vulnerability to disaster so, a brief study on land-use change has also been done under the current research.   Keywords: Cyclone, forecasting technique, questionnaire survey, Natural hazards and Land- use change.

Paleoenvironmental investigations establish important baseline knowledge of the natural variability of lake systems, to better understand human impacts on the landscape, and the effects of climate change on water resources. By combining long-term environmental history with investigations into modern land use patterns and climatological events, a wider perspective can be reached that has practical applications in water governance. This thesis presents a case study of Lake Basotu (4.37°S, 35.07°E), a crater lake in the Hanang district of north-central Tanzania, which acts as an important source of freshwater for local people. A three-meter long sediment core from an interior crater of Lake Basotu was investigated using proxy records (diatoms, magnetic parameters, and carbon content) and radiometric dating (14C and 210Pb). The Lake Basotu record was then compared to other sediment-based reconstructions from East Africa and records of historical famines to better place it into the timeline and understanding of regional climate dynamics. This work was extended into modern times (1973–2015) by examining lake extent variations in the Landsat satellite archive. Shoreline boundaries for dry-season images were delineated and lake extent was calculated using GIS techniques. This remote sensing record was compared to climatological patterns, meteorological records, and the history of land-use changes in the surrounding district. As a whole, the Lake Basotu record indicates that major fluctuations in lake level are not abnormal; however, human influence has likely increased the lake’s sensitivity to climatic fluctuations. The timing of historical famines in East Africa were linked to periods of shallow lake conditions in Basotu, and the duration of the most extreme lake level changes correlate to a reversal in the 14C age-depth model. Recent variations in lake extent are likely connected to a mechanized wheat farming program implemented in the district as a foreign aid project in the early 1960s. To support the work done in Basotu, a preliminary investigation of sediment from the nearby Lake Babati was undertaken. Sediment from the two lakes indicates that their geographical location may be in a transition zone towards dryer conditions to the south during the Little Ice Age in East Africa. The results of this thesis support that Lake Basotu is an important location for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and human activity on water resources in this region. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript.</p>