L’étude de la compréhension de textes a toujours pris en compte les connaissances du lecteur que Le Ny (2005) définit comme des représentations vraies. Or, ces connaissances peuvent être des croyances voire des idéologies (van Dijk, 1998). Si la compréhension de textes fait appel aux connaissances spécifiques et/ou générales du lecteur en relation avec les informations contenues dans le texte pour construire une représentation cohérente, cette compréhension sera médiatisée par l’inscription idéologique du lecteur. Dans ce travail, nous avons mené trois séries d’expériences étudiant le rôle que peut jouer l’idéologie des lecteurs dans la compréhension de textes. La première série d’expériences, réalisée sur papier avec des français d’origine maghrébine, a mis en évidence grâce à deux types de textes (neutres et idéologiques) que la compréhension est sensible à l’idéologie du lecteur. La deuxième série d’expériences, implémentée sur ordinateurs, a confirmé les résultats obtenus précédemment et montré que les lecteurs n’ont pas lu ces deux types de textes aussi rapidement. Dans un souci méthodologique, nous avons élargi, dans la troisième série d’expérience, notre approche à une autre population afin de dissocier l’effet de l’origine du lecteur de celui de son idéologie. Les résultats obtenus montrent que la compréhension est sensible plus à l’idéologie du lecteur qu’à son origine. Les lecteurs qu’ils soient français de souche ou d’origine maghrébine, ont tendance à moins accepter les informations véhiculées par un texte idéologique lorsqu’elles sont en désaccord avec leurs croyances même si ces dernières sont présentes dans le texte et plausibles pour expliquer l’événement. / The study of texts comprehension has always taken into consideration the reader’s knowledge which Le Ny (2005) defines as real representations. However, this knowledge can be beliefs even ideologies (van Dijk, 1998). If the comprehension of texts appeals to the specific and\or general knowledge of the reader in connection with the information contained in the text to build a coherent representation, this comprehension would be mediatised by the reader’s ideological inscription. In this work, we have led three series of experiments studying the role that can play readers’ ideology in the comprehension of texts. The first series of experiences, realized on paper with French from Maghreb origins, put in evidence through two types of texts (neutral and ideological) that the comprehension is sensitive to reader’s ideology. The second series of experiments, implemented on computers, has confirmed the results previously obtained and has shown that the readers had not read these two types of texts so quickly. To fulfill a methodological gap, we have widened, in the third series of experiment, our approach to another population in order to dissociate the effect of the reader’s origin and that of its ideology. The results obtained show that the comprehension is much more sensitive to the reader’s ideology rather than to its origin. The readers who they are French or of Maghrebian origin, tend to accept less the information conveyed by an ideological text when they disagree with their beliefs even if these last ones are present in the text and plausible to explain the event.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-25T19:30:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vinicius Bodanese Demarch.pdf: 4544559 bytes, checksum: 0b845832e5b93d68dc7656c22253c5b7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / With continued population growth, food scarcity and declining quality and quantity from natural resources, current agricultural practices should be reconsidered. A better understanding of the spatial variability of soil and climatic components, as well as their numerous interactions on the yield of agricultural crops is the current approach called Precision Agriculture. Thus, identify management zones, targeting areas with relative homogeneity as a broad set of variables, can be approximate to management of spatial variability. There weregeoreferenced soil samples divided into three layers, P5 (0 - 0.05m), P10 (0.05 to 0.01 m) and P20 (0.10 - 0.20 m). The first analysis it is the landscape model, which was considered the angle of the geomorphic surface for management class delineation. The crop was segmented into four geomorphic segments, top surface, convex surface, the concave surface and plain. The second analysis was designed as mathematical technique, making use of multivariate statistical analysis, performing hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) considering similarity between samples, and principal component analysis (PCA), the variances describing characteristics of soil attributes. For each measured layer of the soil, the samples are segmented by means of HCA into four zones management as approximate 60% similarity at Euclidean distance. To verify the significance of the segmentations,drew on comparison of average 5% by orthogonal contrasts test, considering each segment or mathematical landscape management zone as a treatment in the analysis. In the case of landscape segments considered, there were no significant differences between the means of soil attributes and yield components of soybean considered. The contrasts applied to the areas of mathematical systems differed significantly from each other for most soil properties and yield components under analysis. Thus, the use of multivariate analysis can be a tool in order to provide differentiation with regard to handling of agricultural areas. / Com contínuo aumento populacional, escassez alimentar e declínio qualitativo e quantitativo dos recursos naturais, as atuais práticas agrícolas devem ser reconsideradas. O melhor entendimento da variabilidade espacial de atributos do solo e componentes climatológicos, bem como, suas inúmeras interações sobre o rendimento das culturas agrícolas é abordagem atual da chamada Agricultura de Precisão. Assim, delimitar zonas de manejo, segmentando áreas que apresentem relativa homogeneidade quanto a amplo conjunto de variáveis, pode ser aproximação para manejo da variabilidade espacial. Realizaram-se coletas georeferenciadas de solo estratificadas em três camadas, P5 (0 - 0,05 m), P10 (0,05 - 0,01 m) e P20 (0,10 - 0,20 m). A primeira análise realizada trata-se de modelo de paisagem, onde se considerou a angulação da superfície geomórfica para delimitação dos segmentos. A lavoura foi segmentada em quatro segmentos geomórficos, superfície de topo, superfície convexa, superfície côncava e planície. A segunda análise foi denominada como técnica matemática, valendo-se de análise estatística multivariada, realizando-se análise hierárquica de agrupamentos (HCA) considerando similaridade entre amostras, e análise de componentes principais (PCA), descrevendo características nas variâncias dos atributos do solo. Para cada camada de solo avaliada, segmentaram-se as amostras através da HCA, em quatro zonas de manejo conforme similaridade aproximada de 60 % em distância euclidiana. Para verificar a significância das segmentações, valeu-se de teste de comparação de média por contrastes ortogonais a 5 %, considerando cada segmento de paisagem ou zona de manejo matemática como um tratamento na análise. No caso dos segmentos de paisagem considerados, não houve diferenças significativas entre as médias dos atributos de solo e componentes de rendimento da cultura da soja considerados. Os contrastes aplicados para as zonas de manejo matemáticas diferiram significativamente entre si para a maioria dos atributos do solo e componentes de rendimento em análise. Sendo assim, a utilização de análise multivariada pode ser interessante no sentido de fornecer diferenciações quanto ao manejo de áreas agrícolas.

<p>Natural forest dynamics is a foundational topic of forest science. A new Wood Pasture hypothesis considering large herbivore as driving force in forest ecosystem is now challenging the traditional High Forest hypothesis, in which vegetation is regarded as main driving force. In this study, a model-based approach is applied to investigate differences between these two hypotheses and the determine factors in the system. A theoretical landscape of 1 km²formed by 100*100 cells is set up with 100 vegetation patches and free moving herbivores on. Our null hypothesis that herbivores make no difference in vegetation dynamics especially at canopy level is rejected. It is found that synchronization of herbivore behaviors is the most influencing factor of how a landscape might be shaped. It is also found that landscape could be a mosaic of both high forest and wood pasture depends on large herbivore’s herd size.</p>

The purpose of this research was to determine if the relationship between a community and the nearby provincial park can be enhanced through the use of the cultural planning process. To address the research question a qualitative approach was used which included a case study, a document analysis, a questionnaire and a series of interviews. The subject of the case study was Sandbanks Provincial Park in Prince Edward County, Ontario. The findings illustrated that there are elements and applications of the cultural planning process that can assist a community in efforts to improve or work towards establishing a relationship with its local provincial park. The cultural planning process emphasizes the use of a broad definition of culture and encourages a community to produce an inventory of its cultural resources. This helps to illustrate the value a provincial park contributes to the landscape of an area. The cultural planning process also emphasizes the importance and potential for interaction and communication between different sectors of a community, including the provincial parks. Although Prince Edward County is a leader in cultural planning, it does not yet have a perfectly interactive relationship with its local provincial park. However, the plans, policies, forums and atmosphere produced by the cultural planning have established an environment that is conducive to improving the relationship between Sandbanks and the County. Based on the findings of this research, recommendations have been made to the County, Sandbanks Provincial Park and the Ontario Parks organization. This research will contribute to the literature that exists regarding cultural planning, valuable landscape models and relationships between a community and the nearby provincial park.

The purpose of this research was to determine if the relationship between a community and the nearby provincial park can be enhanced through the use of the cultural planning process. To address the research question a qualitative approach was used which included a case study, a document analysis, a questionnaire and a series of interviews. The subject of the case study was Sandbanks Provincial Park in Prince Edward County, Ontario. The findings illustrated that there are elements and applications of the cultural planning process that can assist a community in efforts to improve or work towards establishing a relationship with its local provincial park. The cultural planning process emphasizes the use of a broad definition of culture and encourages a community to produce an inventory of its cultural resources. This helps to illustrate the value a provincial park contributes to the landscape of an area. The cultural planning process also emphasizes the importance and potential for interaction and communication between different sectors of a community, including the provincial parks. Although Prince Edward County is a leader in cultural planning, it does not yet have a perfectly interactive relationship with its local provincial park. However, the plans, policies, forums and atmosphere produced by the cultural planning have established an environment that is conducive to improving the relationship between Sandbanks and the County. Based on the findings of this research, recommendations have been made to the County, Sandbanks Provincial Park and the Ontario Parks organization. This research will contribute to the literature that exists regarding cultural planning, valuable landscape models and relationships between a community and the nearby provincial park.

Natural forest dynamics is a foundational topic of forest science. A new Wood Pasture hypothesis considering large herbivore as driving force in forest ecosystem is now challenging the traditional High Forest hypothesis, in which vegetation is regarded as main driving force. In this study, a model-based approach is applied to investigate differences between these two hypotheses and the determine factors in the system. A theoretical landscape of 1 km²formed by 100*100 cells is set up with 100 vegetation patches and free moving herbivores on. Our null hypothesis that herbivores make no difference in vegetation dynamics especially at canopy level is rejected. It is found that synchronization of herbivore behaviors is the most influencing factor of how a landscape might be shaped. It is also found that landscape could be a mosaic of both high forest and wood pasture depends on large herbivore’s herd size.

Comprendre un texte, c’est élaborer un modèle de situation, une représentation cohérente qui est le résultat de l’interaction entre les informations textuelles et les connaissances du lecteur (van Dijk & Kintsch, 1983 ; Kintsch, 1988 ; Ehrlich et al., 1993). Cependant, les connaissances du lecteur ne sont toujours pas objectives et attestées (vraies). Ces connaissances peuvent également être des croyances voire des idéologies (van Dijk, 1998). Ce travail a pour objectif de montrer le rôle que peut jouer l’idéologie des lecteurs dans la compréhension de textes. Nous nous sommes intéressés à l’idéologie politique que nous avons mesurée à l’aide d’un test d’association implicite (IAT) que nous avons construit. Une première expérience a mis en évidence que la compréhension des textes est sensible à l’idéologie des lecteurs. En effet, les temps de lecture et les performances des lecteurs dépendent de l’appartenance politique des participants et de la cohérence entre cette appartenance et la nature idéologique des textes. Ensuite, à partir des simulations que permetle modèle Landscape (van den Brook et al., 1996, 1999), nous nous sommes intéressé à la dynamique de la compréhension à travers les inférences de type antécédent causal par rapport à l’idéologie des lecteurs. Les résultats obtenus à partir de trois expériences montrent que l’activation, le maintien et la récupération des inférences en mémoire est sensible à l’idéologie des lecteurs. En somme, ce travail complète les travaux sur la compréhension de texte enmettant en évidence l’importance des croyances des lecteurs, ici leur idéologie politique. / To understand a text, it is to work out a model of situation, a coherent representation which is the result of the interaction between textual informations and knowledge of the reader (van Dijk & Kintsch, 1983 ; Kintsch, 1988 ; Ehrlich and al., 1993).However, the reader’s knowledge are not still objective and attested (true). This knowledge can also be beliefs even ideologies (van Dijk, 1998). This work aims to demonstrate the potential role of ideology readers in reading comprehension. We were interested in the political ideology which we measured using an implicit test of association (IAT) that we built. A first experiment showed that text comprehension is sensitive to the reader’s ideology. Indeed, the reading times and the performances of the readers depend on the political affiliation on the participants and consistency between this membership and ideological nature of texts. Then, starting from simulations which the model Landscape allows (van den Brook and al., 1996, 1999), we were interested in dynamics of comprehension through the bridging inferences compared to the ideology of the readers. The results obtained starting from three experiments show that activation, the maintenance and the retrieval of inferences in memory are sensitive to the ideology of the readers. To sum up, this work supplements work on text comprehension by highlighting the importance of the beliefs of the readers, heretheir political ideology.

Studies from the Forestry Institute of São Paulo State have shown that in the end of the 20th century, the native forest cover of the state of SP reached the maximum level of forest loss. From that point on, a period of forest increase and expansion started. Industrialization, law enforcement, economic benefits, and social pressure experienced in recent years are believed to be contributing to the preservation and regrowth of the native vegetation cover in certain locations. This study proposed to model the dynamics of native vegetation cover in the Piracicaba River basin (12,500 km²) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, to evaluate possible effects of these changes in ecosystem services related to river flow & regulation and landscape structure, linking to biodiversity & habitat supported by forest patches. To achieve the proposal set out in this research, dynamic models of native vegetation were established. Thematic land cover maps of the years 1990, 2000 and 2010, originated from Landsat 5 TM images, formed the spatiotemporal basis of this study. With the aid of Dinamica EGO (a dynamic modeling software), three future scenarios were created, called status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) and riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). An analysis using weights of evidence was done to identify forest transition drivers. The drivers are divided into two groups, (1) environmental & physical, consisting of soil types, hydrographic network, rainfall and presence of native forest fragments and (2) anthropic, consisting of population density, gross national product, road network, urban patches and predominant rural activities. Resulting scenarios were analyzed by means of landscape metrics to compare and qualify vegetation patches in relation to structure as proxy for supporting ecosystem services. Finally, Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, was used to determine the influence of different forest scenarios in mean annual water yield and regulation processes throughout the basin, and, therefore, compare scenarios as to effects on regulating ecosystem services. Results show that forest transition is indeed occurring, with native vegetation cover parting from 24.4% in 1990, to 20.1% in 2000 and 21.8% in 2010. Scenario results were of 22.4% (SQ), 43.2% (ND) and 28.4% (RRE) for 2050. Forest loss was identified as a product of anthropogenic drivers while regrowth was of physical & environmental drivers. When the area was segmented, regions with greater environmental condition resulted in improved values of landscape structure. SQ scenario was the most affected, losing small patches of forest that could function as structural connectors, and therefore potentially affect biodiversity and habitat. Mean annual water yield was reduced with forest regrowth by as much as 10.3% in ND. We concluded that the dynamics occurring in the landscape and the proposed scenarios affect mean annual water yield, regulation and landscape structure, allowing us to discuss differences between the scenarios and the relation between forest dynamics, landscape structure, hydrology and overtime potential effects over regulating and supporting ecosystem services. / Levantamentos do Instituto Florestal de São Paulo têm mostrado que no final do século XX a cobertura florestal nativa total do estado atingiu um patamar de perda e que se iniciou então um período de expansão. Rigidez de leis, fiscalização, benefícios econômicos, além de pressão social demonstrados nos últimos anos têm contribuído para essa expansão da vegetação nativa em certos locais. Este estudo propôs modelar a dinâmica da cobertura florestal nativa na bacia do Rio Piracicaba (12.500 km2), localizada no Estado de São Paulo, para averiguar os possíveis efeitos dessas mudanças nos serviços ecossistêmicos ligados à vazão e regulação de rios, além da própria estrutura da paisagem simulada, interligando-se com biodiversidade e habitat, promovidos pelos remanescentes florestais. Para atingir a proposta estabelecida nesta pesquisa, modelos de dinâmica da vegetação nativa foram desenvolvidos. Foram utilizados mapas temáticos de cobertura e uso do solo dos anos 1990, 2000 e 2010 originados a partir de imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com auxílio do software Dinamica EGO, especializado em modelagem da paisagem, criaram-se três modelos espaciais e temporais da dinâmica florestal, levando em consideração os cenários status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) e riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). Uma análise usando pesos de evidência foi utilizada para identificar as variáveis de transição florestal. As variáveis foram divididas em dois grupos, (1) físicas e ambientais, consistindo de tipos de solo, rede de drenagem, pluviosidade e presença de fragmentos florestais e (2) antrópicos, consistindo de densidade populacional, produto interno bruto, rede viária, zonas urbanas e predominância de atividade rural. Os cenários resultantes foram analisados por métricas de paisagem para fim de comparação e qualificação dos fragmentos em relação a sua estrutura, interligando-se aos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte. Por último, foi realizada uma modelagem hidrológica usando o modelo Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) para averiguar a influência da mudança florestal na regulação de vazão de rios e portanto comparar os cenários em relação aos seus efeitos sobre serviços ecossistêmicos de regulação interligados à água. Resultados mostraram que transição florestal ocorreu, passando a cobertura florestal de 24,4% em 1990 para 20,1% em 2000 e então 21,8% em 2010. Cenários resultaram em uma cobertura florestal de 22,4% (SQ), 43,2% (LE) e 28,4% (RRE) para o ano de 2050. A perda de floresta foi identificada como produto de variáveis de natureza antrópica enquanto o ganho florestal foi de variáveis físicas e ambientais. Regiões com melhores condições ambientais resultaram em melhores valores de estrutura da paisagem. SQ foi afetado principalmente pela perda de pequenos fragmentos florestais que funcionam como conectores estruturais da paisagem, potencialmente afetando a biodiversidade e habitat. O deflúvio médio anual foi reduzido em até 10,3% com o incremento florestal observado em ND. Conclui-se que a cobertura florestal na paisagem e os cenários propostos afetam o deflúvio, regulação e a estrutura da paisagem, nos permitindo discutir nas diferenças entre cada cenário e a relação entre dinâmica florestal, estrutura da paisagem, hidrologia e potenciais efeitos nos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte e regulação.

Studies from the Forestry Institute of São Paulo State have shown that in the end of the 20th century, the native forest cover of the state of SP reached the maximum level of forest loss. From that point on, a period of forest increase and expansion started. Industrialization, law enforcement, economic benefits, and social pressure experienced in recent years are believed to be contributing to the preservation and regrowth of the native vegetation cover in certain locations. This study proposed to model the dynamics of native vegetation cover in the Piracicaba River basin (12,500 km²) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, to evaluate possible effects of these changes in ecosystem services related to river flow & regulation and landscape structure, linking to biodiversity & habitat supported by forest patches. To achieve the proposal set out in this research, dynamic models of native vegetation were established. Thematic land cover maps of the years 1990, 2000 and 2010, originated from Landsat 5 TM images, formed the spatiotemporal basis of this study. With the aid of Dinamica EGO (a dynamic modeling software), three future scenarios were created, called status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) and riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). An analysis using weights of evidence was done to identify forest transition drivers. The drivers are divided into two groups, (1) environmental & physical, consisting of soil types, hydrographic network, rainfall and presence of native forest fragments and (2) anthropic, consisting of population density, gross national product, road network, urban patches and predominant rural activities. Resulting scenarios were analyzed by means of landscape metrics to compare and qualify vegetation patches in relation to structure as proxy for supporting ecosystem services. Finally, Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, was used to determine the influence of different forest scenarios in mean annual water yield and regulation processes throughout the basin, and, therefore, compare scenarios as to effects on regulating ecosystem services. Results show that forest transition is indeed occurring, with native vegetation cover parting from 24.4% in 1990, to 20.1% in 2000 and 21.8% in 2010. Scenario results were of 22.4% (SQ), 43.2% (ND) and 28.4% (RRE) for 2050. Forest loss was identified as a product of anthropogenic drivers while regrowth was of physical & environmental drivers. When the area was segmented, regions with greater environmental condition resulted in improved values of landscape structure. SQ scenario was the most affected, losing small patches of forest that could function as structural connectors, and therefore potentially affect biodiversity and habitat. Mean annual water yield was reduced with forest regrowth by as much as 10.3% in ND. We concluded that the dynamics occurring in the landscape and the proposed scenarios affect mean annual water yield, regulation and landscape structure, allowing us to discuss differences between the scenarios and the relation between forest dynamics, landscape structure, hydrology and overtime potential effects over regulating and supporting ecosystem services. / Levantamentos do Instituto Florestal de São Paulo têm mostrado que no final do século XX a cobertura florestal nativa total do estado atingiu um patamar de perda e que se iniciou então um período de expansão. Rigidez de leis, fiscalização, benefícios econômicos, além de pressão social demonstrados nos últimos anos têm contribuído para essa expansão da vegetação nativa em certos locais. Este estudo propôs modelar a dinâmica da cobertura florestal nativa na bacia do Rio Piracicaba (12.500 km2), localizada no Estado de São Paulo, para averiguar os possíveis efeitos dessas mudanças nos serviços ecossistêmicos ligados à vazão e regulação de rios, além da própria estrutura da paisagem simulada, interligando-se com biodiversidade e habitat, promovidos pelos remanescentes florestais. Para atingir a proposta estabelecida nesta pesquisa, modelos de dinâmica da vegetação nativa foram desenvolvidos. Foram utilizados mapas temáticos de cobertura e uso do solo dos anos 1990, 2000 e 2010 originados a partir de imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com auxílio do software Dinamica EGO, especializado em modelagem da paisagem, criaram-se três modelos espaciais e temporais da dinâmica florestal, levando em consideração os cenários status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) e riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). Uma análise usando pesos de evidência foi utilizada para identificar as variáveis de transição florestal. As variáveis foram divididas em dois grupos, (1) físicas e ambientais, consistindo de tipos de solo, rede de drenagem, pluviosidade e presença de fragmentos florestais e (2) antrópicos, consistindo de densidade populacional, produto interno bruto, rede viária, zonas urbanas e predominância de atividade rural. Os cenários resultantes foram analisados por métricas de paisagem para fim de comparação e qualificação dos fragmentos em relação a sua estrutura, interligando-se aos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte. Por último, foi realizada uma modelagem hidrológica usando o modelo Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) para averiguar a influência da mudança florestal na regulação de vazão de rios e portanto comparar os cenários em relação aos seus efeitos sobre serviços ecossistêmicos de regulação interligados à água. Resultados mostraram que transição florestal ocorreu, passando a cobertura florestal de 24,4% em 1990 para 20,1% em 2000 e então 21,8% em 2010. Cenários resultaram em uma cobertura florestal de 22,4% (SQ), 43,2% (LE) e 28,4% (RRE) para o ano de 2050. A perda de floresta foi identificada como produto de variáveis de natureza antrópica enquanto o ganho florestal foi de variáveis físicas e ambientais. Regiões com melhores condições ambientais resultaram em melhores valores de estrutura da paisagem. SQ foi afetado principalmente pela perda de pequenos fragmentos florestais que funcionam como conectores estruturais da paisagem, potencialmente afetando a biodiversidade e habitat. O deflúvio médio anual foi reduzido em até 10,3% com o incremento florestal observado em ND. Conclui-se que a cobertura florestal na paisagem e os cenários propostos afetam o deflúvio, regulação e a estrutura da paisagem, nos permitindo discutir nas diferenças entre cada cenário e a relação entre dinâmica florestal, estrutura da paisagem, hidrologia e potenciais efeitos nos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte e regulação.

Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios  is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals  for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden.  The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground  biomass  and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker  habitat  between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the initial biomass values with the values from the last ten years of the simulation. A habitat suitability score was made with respect to two key habitat requirements for the White-backed Woodpecker (1) the fraction of deciduous trees in the forest; and (2) the age structure of the forest.   From the result it was found that the carbon stock change in the forest was relatively stable for all the simulated scenarios during the 100-year period. The forest carbon stock for the intensified harvesting scenario was 1.04 of the initial carbon stock of the simulation while business as usual was 1.08 and the conservation scenario 1.10.  A conservation scenario would therefore be preferable if the forest landscape is to be used mainly as a carbon sink. If biomass extraction is to be increased to meet future demands for bioenergy and woody products, it should be noted that the intensified harvesting led to a 23.6 increase of the initial biomass harvest values while business as usual had a 4.2 increase and the conservation scenario a 3.1 increase. The result also suggests that increasing the proportions of deciduous and old forest to recreate  the White-backed Woodpecker’s preferred habitat require considerable time and effort and cannot likely be achieved with the current business as usual scenario nor with the intensified harvesting or conservation scenarios simulated in this study. Thus, a more ambitious and targeted restoration effort is needed if the species is to be preserved.   How the forest should be sustainably managed in the future depends on which interests takes priority in decision-making. However, a forest landscape model can provide valuable information throughout the management process so that more informed decisions can be made while also saving  time, money and resources better used elsewhere. / Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på två viktiga habitatkrav för vitryggig hackspett (1) andelen lövträd i skogen; och (2) skogens åldersstruktur. Av resultatet visade det sig att kolförrådets förändring i skogen var relativt stabil för alla de simulerade scenarierna under 100-årsperioden. Skogens kollager för det intensifierade avverkningsscenariot var 1,04 av simuleringens initiala värden medan ”business as usual” var 1,08 och bevarandescenariot 1,10. Ett bevarandescenario vore därför att föredra om skogslandskapet främst ska användas som kolsänka. Om biomassautvinningen ska ökas för att möta framtida krav på bioenergi och träprodukter bör det noteras att den intensifierade avverkningen ledde till en ökning med 23,6 av de initiala skördevärdena för biomassa medan ”business as usual” hade en ökning med 4,2 och bevarandescenariot med 3,1. Resultatet tyder också på att en ökning av andelen lövskog och gammal skog för att återskapa vitryggig hackspetts föredragna habitat kräver avsevärd tid och ansträngning och sannolikt inte kan uppnås med det nuvarande scenariot med ”business as usual” eller med de intensifierade avverknings- eller bevarandescenarierna som simuleras i detta studie. Det behövs alltså en mer ambitiös och målinriktad restaureringsinsats om arten ska bevaras. Hur skogen ska skötas hållbart i framtiden beror på vilka intressen som prioriteras i beslutsfattandet. En skogslandskapsmodell kan dock ge värdefull information under hela skötselprocessen så att mer informerade beslut kan fattas samtidigt som det sparar tid, pengar och resurser som kan användas bättre på annat håll.