O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a importância relativa de ondas e correntes de deriva litorânea no processo de migração das desembocaduras de Icapara e do Ribeira de Iguape. O clima de ondas foi obtido a partir do modelo Wavewatch III. As taxas de migração do sistema foram estimadas através de uma série temporal de imagens Landsat. Através da aplicação do modelo numérico Delft3D, as ondas foram propagadas para águas rasas, nas proximidades dos pontais da Ilha Comprida e da Praia da Juréia. Assim, as características de das ondas extraídas do modelo, permitiram a estimativa das tendências da deriva litorânea nestes segmentos. A extração da linha de costa de imagens entre 16/06/1985 e 07/07/2016 exibiram a continuidade do processo de acresção lateral dos pontais da Ilha Comprida e da Praia da Juréia, cuja variação total foi de 852 e 669 m respectivamente, que ocorreram a taxas anuais de 27 e 21 m.ano-1. Neste período, o crescimento destas feições promoveu o deslocamento das desembocaduras de Icapara, para NE, e do Ribeira de Iguape, para SW. As componentes de transporte exibiram rumo resultante para NE em ambos pontais, com valores maiores na Praia da Juréia. Os resultados mostram a relação entre a deriva litorânea e a migração das desembocaduras, indicando sua importância relativa como processo controlador da morfodinâmica local. / The objective of this work is to evaluate the relative importance of waves and longshore drift currents in the migration process of the Icapara and Ribeira de Iguape inlets. The wave climate was obtained from the Wavewatch III model. The system migration rates were estimated through a Landsat image time series. Through the application of the numerical model Delft3D, the waves were propagated to shallow waters, near of Ilha Comprida\'s and Juréia\'s Beach sand spits. Thus, the characteristics of the waves extracted from the model allowed the estimation of longshore drift trends in these segments. The extraction of the coastline of images between June 16th 1985, and July 7th 2016, showed the continuity of Ilha Comprida Island and Juréia Beach lateral accretion process, with a total variation of 852 and 669 m respectively, which occurred at annual rates of 27 and 21 m.year-1. During this period, the growth of these features promoted the displacement of the mouths of Icapara, for NE, and the Ribeira de Iguape, for SW. The transport components exhibited a resultant NE direction at both points, with higher values at Juréia Beach. The results show the relationship between the longshore drift and the inlets lateral migration, indicating its relative importance as a controlling process of the local morphodynamics.

Desembocaduras são ambientes bastante dinâmicos e sujeitos à complexa interação entre fatores estabilizadores e desestabilizadores. Dependendo dessa interação, desembocaduras podem apresentar a tendência de migração ao longo de barreiras arenosas. Um dos mecanismos mais eficientes de transporte de sedimento paralelo à costa, e conseqüentemente migração de canais, são as correntes longitudinais geradas pelas ondas se aproximando obliquamente a costa. A motivação do presente trabalho é entender o comportamento morfodinâmico do sistema de desembocadura do rio Itapocú, localizado no centro-norte de Santa Catarina, frente aos processos forçantes que atuam na sua migração ao longo da linha de costa. A morfologia dos pontais arenosos foi obtida a partir de levantamentos morfológicos com o uso de DGPS. Para analisar a refração de ondas foi utilizado o modelo numérico MIKE 21 - SW, sendo considerados como condições de contorno dados de ondas referentes ao ano de 2002 e dados de ondas previstos referentes ao período de coleta. Os dados de saída do modelo foram utilizados para estimar a deriva litorânea potencial na região. Os resultados morfológicos obtidos demonstraram uma migração da desembocadura para o norte durante o período analisado, sendo mais intenso durante o inverno e o verão. A refração de ondas incidentes do quadrante sul sofreram mais o fenômeno da refração e as ondas de leste apresentaram menor variação angular ao se aproximarem da costa. A deriva litorânea potencial anual para os dados de ondas de 2002 apresentou sentido norte-sul, com inversão de sentido durante o outono, sul-norte. A deriva litorânea potencial para os dados referentes ao período estudado apresentou sentido sul-norte, concordando com a migração observada. A deriva potencial em frente aos pontais apresentou direção para o norte durante todas as estações. Os dados de descarga fluvial não apresentaram influência na migração do canal, porém apresentaram uma relação com a largura do mesmo sazonalmente. Os dados de morfologia juntamente com os dados de deriva litorânea referentes às ondas de 2004/2005 mostraram claramente a migração do canal para o norte sendo a deriva a principal contribuinte para a migração da desembocadura. / Inlets are highly dynamic environments subjected to the complex interaction between stabilizing and destabilizing factors. Depending on this interaction, inlets have a tendency to migrate along sandy barriers. One of the most effective mechanisms for transporting sediment alongshore and consequently controlling the migration of inlets, are currents generated by waves approaching the coast at an angle. The motivation of this study is to better understand the morphodynamic behavior of the Itapocú inlet, at the northern Santa Catarina coast. The morphology of the sandy spits that enclose the inlet was obtained from morphological surveys conducted with the use of DGPS. To analyze the wave refraction the numerical model MIKE 21 SW has been applied to the region. Boundary conditions have been set based on a one-year long database (2002) and predicted waves for the studied period. The model output has been used to estimate the potential longshore drift in the region. Results show the migration of the inlet to the north during the analyzed period, with higher migration rates during winter and summer. Waves inciding from the south are the most influenced by the refraction process, while the less refracted waves are those coming from the east The net longshore drift obtained when using the 2002 database is southwards, presenting slight inversions during the year. When using the predicted wave data for the studied period, the potential longshore drift is dominated by northward direction, in agreement with the observed inlet migration. The Itapocú river discharge does not present any relation with the observed inlet migration rates, although there seems to be a relation with the seasonal channel width variability. The surveyed morphological evolution is well related to the potential longshore drift, indicating that during the monitored period, the northwards inlet migration is being controlled by the wave generated longshore drift.

Desembocaduras são ambientes bastante dinâmicos e sujeitos à complexa interação entre fatores estabilizadores e desestabilizadores. Dependendo dessa interação, desembocaduras podem apresentar a tendência de migração ao longo de barreiras arenosas. Um dos mecanismos mais eficientes de transporte de sedimento paralelo à costa, e conseqüentemente migração de canais, são as correntes longitudinais geradas pelas ondas se aproximando obliquamente a costa. A motivação do presente trabalho é entender o comportamento morfodinâmico do sistema de desembocadura do rio Itapocú, localizado no centro-norte de Santa Catarina, frente aos processos forçantes que atuam na sua migração ao longo da linha de costa. A morfologia dos pontais arenosos foi obtida a partir de levantamentos morfológicos com o uso de DGPS. Para analisar a refração de ondas foi utilizado o modelo numérico MIKE 21 - SW, sendo considerados como condições de contorno dados de ondas referentes ao ano de 2002 e dados de ondas previstos referentes ao período de coleta. Os dados de saída do modelo foram utilizados para estimar a deriva litorânea potencial na região. Os resultados morfológicos obtidos demonstraram uma migração da desembocadura para o norte durante o período analisado, sendo mais intenso durante o inverno e o verão. A refração de ondas incidentes do quadrante sul sofreram mais o fenômeno da refração e as ondas de leste apresentaram menor variação angular ao se aproximarem da costa. A deriva litorânea potencial anual para os dados de ondas de 2002 apresentou sentido norte-sul, com inversão de sentido durante o outono, sul-norte. A deriva litorânea potencial para os dados referentes ao período estudado apresentou sentido sul-norte, concordando com a migração observada. A deriva potencial em frente aos pontais apresentou direção para o norte durante todas as estações. Os dados de descarga fluvial não apresentaram influência na migração do canal, porém apresentaram uma relação com a largura do mesmo sazonalmente. Os dados de morfologia juntamente com os dados de deriva litorânea referentes às ondas de 2004/2005 mostraram claramente a migração do canal para o norte sendo a deriva a principal contribuinte para a migração da desembocadura. / Inlets are highly dynamic environments subjected to the complex interaction between stabilizing and destabilizing factors. Depending on this interaction, inlets have a tendency to migrate along sandy barriers. One of the most effective mechanisms for transporting sediment alongshore and consequently controlling the migration of inlets, are currents generated by waves approaching the coast at an angle. The motivation of this study is to better understand the morphodynamic behavior of the Itapocú inlet, at the northern Santa Catarina coast. The morphology of the sandy spits that enclose the inlet was obtained from morphological surveys conducted with the use of DGPS. To analyze the wave refraction the numerical model MIKE 21 SW has been applied to the region. Boundary conditions have been set based on a one-year long database (2002) and predicted waves for the studied period. The model output has been used to estimate the potential longshore drift in the region. Results show the migration of the inlet to the north during the analyzed period, with higher migration rates during winter and summer. Waves inciding from the south are the most influenced by the refraction process, while the less refracted waves are those coming from the east The net longshore drift obtained when using the 2002 database is southwards, presenting slight inversions during the year. When using the predicted wave data for the studied period, the potential longshore drift is dominated by northward direction, in agreement with the observed inlet migration. The Itapocú river discharge does not present any relation with the observed inlet migration rates, although there seems to be a relation with the seasonal channel width variability. The surveyed morphological evolution is well related to the potential longshore drift, indicating that during the monitored period, the northwards inlet migration is being controlled by the wave generated longshore drift.

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a importância relativa de ondas e correntes de deriva litorânea no processo de migração das desembocaduras de Icapara e do Ribeira de Iguape. O clima de ondas foi obtido a partir do modelo Wavewatch III. As taxas de migração do sistema foram estimadas através de uma série temporal de imagens Landsat. Através da aplicação do modelo numérico Delft3D, as ondas foram propagadas para águas rasas, nas proximidades dos pontais da Ilha Comprida e da Praia da Juréia. Assim, as características de das ondas extraídas do modelo, permitiram a estimativa das tendências da deriva litorânea nestes segmentos. A extração da linha de costa de imagens entre 16/06/1985 e 07/07/2016 exibiram a continuidade do processo de acresção lateral dos pontais da Ilha Comprida e da Praia da Juréia, cuja variação total foi de 852 e 669 m respectivamente, que ocorreram a taxas anuais de 27 e 21 m.ano-1. Neste período, o crescimento destas feições promoveu o deslocamento das desembocaduras de Icapara, para NE, e do Ribeira de Iguape, para SW. As componentes de transporte exibiram rumo resultante para NE em ambos pontais, com valores maiores na Praia da Juréia. Os resultados mostram a relação entre a deriva litorânea e a migração das desembocaduras, indicando sua importância relativa como processo controlador da morfodinâmica local. / The objective of this work is to evaluate the relative importance of waves and longshore drift currents in the migration process of the Icapara and Ribeira de Iguape inlets. The wave climate was obtained from the Wavewatch III model. The system migration rates were estimated through a Landsat image time series. Through the application of the numerical model Delft3D, the waves were propagated to shallow waters, near of Ilha Comprida\'s and Juréia\'s Beach sand spits. Thus, the characteristics of the waves extracted from the model allowed the estimation of longshore drift trends in these segments. The extraction of the coastline of images between June 16th 1985, and July 7th 2016, showed the continuity of Ilha Comprida Island and Juréia Beach lateral accretion process, with a total variation of 852 and 669 m respectively, which occurred at annual rates of 27 and 21 m.year-1. During this period, the growth of these features promoted the displacement of the mouths of Icapara, for NE, and the Ribeira de Iguape, for SW. The transport components exhibited a resultant NE direction at both points, with higher values at Juréia Beach. The results show the relationship between the longshore drift and the inlets lateral migration, indicating its relative importance as a controlling process of the local morphodynamics.

Laboratory experiments were performed to study and improve longshore sediment transport rate predictions. Measured total longshore transport in the laboratory was approximately three times greater for plunging breakers than spilling breakers. Three distinct zones of longshore transport were observed across the surf zone: the incipient breaker zone, inner surf zone, and swash zone. Transport at incipient breaking was influenced by breaker type; inner surf zone transport was dominated by wave height, independent of wave period; and swash zone transport was dependent on wave period. Selected predictive formulas to compute total load and distributed load transport were compared to laboratory and field data. Equations by Kamphuis (1991) and Madsen et al. (2003) gave consistent total sediment transport estimates for both laboratory and field data. Additionally, the CERC formula predicted measurements well if calibrated and applied to similar breaker types. Each of the distributed load models had shortcomings. The energetics model of Bodge and Dean (1987) was sensitive to fluctuations in energy dissipation and often predicted transport peaks that were not present in the data. The Watanabe (1992) equation, based on time-averaged bottom stress, predicted no transport at most laboratory locations. The Van Rijn (1993) model was comprehensive and required hydrodynamic, bedform, and sediment data. The model estimated the laboratory cross-shore distribution well, but greatly overestimated field transport. Seven models were developed in this study based on the principle that transported sediment is mobilized by the total shear stress acting on the bottom and transported by the current at that location. Shear stress, including the turbulent component, was calculated from the wave orbital velocity. Models 1 through 3 gave good estimates of the transport distribution, but underpredicted the transport peak near the plunging wave breakpoint. A suspension term was included in Models 4 through 7, which improved estimates near breaking for plunging breakers. Models 4, 5 and 7 also compared well to the field measurements. It was concluded that breaker type is an important variable in determining the amount of transport that occurs at a location. Lastly, inclusion of the turbulent component of the orbital velocity is vital in predictive sediment transport equations.

This thesis examines the processes of longshore sediment transport in the swash zone of a mixed sand and gravel shoreline, Lake Coleridge, New Zealand. It focuses on the interactions between waves and currents in the swash zone and the resulting sediment transport. No previous study has attempted to concurrently measure wave and current data and longshore sediment transport rates on a mixed sand and gravel lakeshore beach in New Zealand. Many of these beaches, in both the oceanic and lacustrine environments, are in net long-term erosion. It is recognised that longshore sediment transport is a part of this process, but very little knowledge has existed regarding rates of sediment movement and the relationships between waves, currents and swash activity in the foreshore of these beach types. A field programme was designed to measure a comprehensive range of wind, wave, current and morphological variables concurrently with longshore transport. Four electronic instruments were used to measure both waves and currents simultaneously in the offshore, nearshore and swash zone. In the offshore area, an InterOcean S4ADW wave and current meter was installed to record wave height, period, direction and velocity. A WG-30 capacitance wave gauge measured the total water surface variation. A pair of Marsh-McBirney electromagnetic current meters, measuring current directions and velocities were installed in the nearshore and swash zone. Data were sampled for 18 minutes every hour with a Campbell Scientific CR23x data-logger. The wave gauge data was sampled at a rate of 10 Hz (0.1 s) and the two current meters at a rate of 2 Hz (0.5 s). Longshore sediment transport rates were investigated with the use of two traps placed in the nearshore and swash zone to collect sediment transported under wave and swash action. This occurred concurrently with the wave measurements and together yielded over 500 individual hours of high quality time series data. Important new insights were made into lake wave processes in New Zealand's alpine lakes. Measured wave heights averaged 0.20-0.35 m and ranged up to 0.85 m. Wave height was found to be strongly linked to the wind and grew rapidly to increasing wind strength in an exponential fashion. Wave period responded more slowly and required time and distance for the wave length to develop. Overall, there was a narrow band of wave periods with means ranging from 1.43 to 2.33 s. The wave spectrum was found to be more mixed and complicated than had previously been assumed for lake environments. Spectral band width parameters were large, with 95% of the values between 0.75 and 0.90. The wave regime attained the characteristics of a storm wave spectrum. The waves were characteristically steep and capable of obtaining far greater steepness than oceanic wind-waves. Values ranged from 0.010 to 0.074, with an average of 0.051. Waves were able to progress very close to shore without modification and broke in water less than 0.5 m deep. Wave refraction from deep to shallow water only caused wave angles to be altered in the order of 10%. The two main breaker types were spilling and plunging. However, rapid increases in beach slope near the shoreline often caused the waves to plunge immediately landward of the swash zone, leading to a greater proportion of plunging waves. Wave energy attenuation was found to be severe. Measured velocities were some 10 times less at two thirds the water depth beneath the wave. Mean orbital velocities were 0.30 m s⁻¹ in deep water and 0.15 m s⁻¹ in shallow water. The ratio difference between the measured deep water orbital velocities and the nearshore orbital velocities was just under one half (us/uo = 0.58), almost identical to the predicted phase velocity difference by Linear wave theory. In general Linear wave theory was found to provide good approximations of the wave conditions in a small lake environment. The swash zone is an important area of wave dissipation and it defines the limits of sediment transport. The width of the swash zone was found to be controlled by the wave height, which in turn determined the quantity of sediment transported through the swash zone. It ranged in width from 0.05 m to 6.0 m and widened landward in response to increased wave height and lakeward in response the wave length. Slope was found to be an important secondary control on swash zone width. In low energy conditions, swash zone slopes were typically steep. At the onset of wave activity the swash zone becomes scoured by swash activity and the beach slope grades down. An equation was developed, using the wave height and beach slope that provides close estimates of the swash zone width under a wide range of conditions. Run-up heights were calculated using the swash zone width and slope angle. Run-up elevations ranged from 0.01 m to 0.73 m and were strongly related to the wave height and the beach slope. On average, run-up exceeds the deep water wave height by a factor of 1.16H. The highest run-up elevations were found to occur at intermediate slope angles of between 6-8°. Above 8°, the run-up declined in response to beach porosity and lower wave energy conditions. A generalised run-up equation for lake environments has been developed, that takes into account the negative relationship between beach slope and run-up. Swash velocities averaged 0.30 m s⁻¹ but maximum velocities averaged 0.98 m s⁻¹. After wave breaking, swash velocities quickly reduced through dissipation by approximately one half. Swash velocity was strongly linked to wave height and beach slope. Maximum velocities occurred at beach slopes of 5°, where incident swash dominated. At slopes between 6° and 10°, swash velocities were hindered by turbulence, but the relative differences between the swash and backswash flows were negligible. At slope angles above 10° there was a slight asymmetry to the swash/backswash flow velocities due to beach porosity absorbing water at the limits of the swash zone. Three equations were developed for estimating the mean and maximum swash velocity flows. From an analysis of these interactions, a process-response model was developed that formalises the morphodynamic response of the swash zone to wave activity. Longshore sediment transport occurred exclusively in the swash zone, landward of the breaking wave in bedload. The sediments collected in transit were a heterogeneous mix of coarse sands and fine-large gravels. Hourly trapped rates ranged from 0.02 to 214.88 kg hr⁻¹. Numerical methods were developed to convert trapped mass rates in to volumetric rates that use the density and porosity of the sediment. A sediment transport flux curve was developed from measuring the distribution of longshore sediment transport across the swash zone. Using numerical integration, the area under this curve was calculated and an equation written to accurately estimate the total integrated transport rates in the swash zone. The total transport rates ranged from a minimum of 1.10 x 10-5 m³ hr⁻¹ to a maximum of 1.15 m³ hr⁻¹. The mean rate was 7.36 x 10⁻² m³ hr⁻¹. Sediment transport was found to be most strongly controlled by the wave height, period, wave steepness and mean swash velocity. Transport is initiated when waves break at an oblique angle to the shoreline. No relationships could be found between the grain size and transport rates. Instead, the critical threshold velocities of the sediment sizes were almost always exceed in the turbulent conditions under the breaking wave. The highest transport rates were associated with the lowest beach slopes. It was found that this was linked to swash high velocities and wave heights associated with foreshore scouring. An expression was developed to estimate the longshore sediment transport, termed the LEXSED formula, that divides the cube of the wave height and the wave length and multiplies this by the mean swash velocity and the wave approach angle. The expression performs well across a wide range of conditions and the estimates show very good correlations to the empirical data. LEXSED was used to calculate an accurate annual sediment transport budget for the fieldsite beaches. LEXSED was compared to 16 other longshore sediment transport formulas and performed best overall. The underlying principles of the model make its application to other mixed sand and gravel beaches promising.

Cette recherche porte sur des modélisation des évolutions à long terme du trait de côtes, dans laquelle on propose un modèle qui combine à la fois une contribution des processus cross-shore et celle de processus longshore pour améliorer les capacités prédictives. Le modèle cross-shore de Splinter et al. (2014) est ré-implémenté dans un but de comparaison avec le modèle combiné. Nous présentons un modèle longshore simple basé sur une approche "one-line" moyenne dans le temps. L’analyse de ce modèle longshore donne l’orientation de la plage d’équilibre par rapport à l’orientation de l’onde incidente. Il révèle également qu’une partie de la variabilité saisonnière des positions du trait de côte est due au transport par la dérive littorale. Par conséquent, la contribution longshore du modèle combiné améliore les capacités prédictives. Les prédictions du modèle sont confrontées à des mesures des positions du trait de côte de différents types de plages, comme celles de Truc Vert, en France et des plages en baie avec courbure de Narrabeen, en Australie et de Nha Trang, au Vietnam.Cette thèse offre deux nouvelles contributions précieuses. Le premier est un modèle longshore simple et l’orientation de la plage d’équilibre. Le second est un modèle combiné de long-shore et cross-shore. / This research focuses on the long-term shoreline evolution modeling, in which a combined model comprising the shoreline change due to longshore drift in a cross-shore shoreline model is proposed to improve the predictive skills of the long-term shoreline response. The cross-shore shoreline model of cite{splinter2014} is re-implemented for a purpose of comprehensive comparison with the combined model. A simplified longshore shoreline model is developed on the basis of the one-line type approach. The analysis of this longshore model yields the equilibrium beach orientation in relation to the incident wave orientation. It also reveals that part of seasonal shoreline position variability is due to the longshore transport. Therefore, the presence of the longshore model in the combined model clearly improves the model skills. The shoreline evolution models are calibrated with data from different beach types, such as a straight open beach shoreline of Truc Vert, France and embayed beach shoreline of Narrabeen, Australia and Nha Trang, Vietnam.This thesis gives two valuable contributions. The first one is a simplified longshore model and the equilibrium beach orientation. The second one is a combined longshore cross-shore phenomenological model.

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as variações espaço-temporais da dinâmica morfo-sedimentar do sistema praial de Ilha Comprida-SP. Assim, para reconhecer os padrões de onda encontrados na região, resultados do modelo global de ondas WAVEWATCH III foram utilizados. Da mesma forma, levantamentos de campo periódicos foram realizados em cinco diferentes setores com obtenção de dados morfológicos e sedimentares. Simulações com o modelo numérico MIKE21 SW foram realizadas para reconhecer as tendências de transporte e distribuição de força de onda. Os resultados mostraram uma tendência geral de transporte para NE, com maiores valores para a região sul em relação a norte, com dois setores principais de divergência residual: centro-sul e norte. A divergência centro-sul apresenta um aumento e uma migração para sul nos meses mais energéticos, enquanto que a divergência norte apresenta uma manutenção espacial ao longo das estações. A distribuição de força de onda mostrou-se mais elevada nos setores centro-sul e norte, coincidindo com os pontos de divergência. Dados granulométricos mostraram baixa variabilidade temporal, mas possuem diferenças espaciais que refletem a hidrodinâmica local. Os dados volumétricos apresentam maiores valores médios nos setores centro-norte e menores no centro-sul e norte. De modo geral, os resultados mostram que ao longo de uma linha de costa exposta a um mesmo padrão de ondas, sua variabilidade é um reflexo de alterações hidrodinâmicas locais. Tais conclusões são importantes para o conhecimento do estado atual das praias e de sua evolução. / The aim of this study is to evaluate the spatial-time variations on the beach system of Ilha Comprida-SP. Therefore, the wave reanalysis database from the global wave generation model WAVEWATCH III was used to recognize the wave pattern for the region. Furthermore, periodic field works at five different sectors have been conducted to collect morphological and sedimentological data. The numerical model MIKE 21 SW has been applied to propagate waves onshore and recognize the transport tendency and the nearshore wave power distribution. Results show a transport trend to the NE, with the southern sector being larger than the northern sector in magnitude, with two main residual longshore drift divergence spots: in the central-southern and northern regions. Moreover, the central-southern divergence spot become larger and migrated to the south during the most energetic months, while the northern divergence spot kept its position throughout the year. Wave power results show two main areas with higher values that coincide with the observed longshore divergence spots. Sediment data presents low temporal variability, although spatial variations have been found reflecting the hydrodynamic conditions. The volumetric data shows largest values in the central-northern sector, being smaller in the central-southern and northern regions. In summary, the findings show that along this wide open stretch of coastline, exposed to the same offshore wave regime, its variability is a result of local hydrodynamic conditions. These results help in further understanding the island\'s long term evolution and current state of its beaches.

We develop a stochastic parametrization, based on a 'simple' deterministic model for the dynamics of steady longshore currents, that produces ensembles that are statistically consistent with field observations of these currents. Unlike deterministic models, stochastic parameterization incorporates randomness and hence can only match the observations in a statistical sense. Unlike statistical emulators, in which the model is tuned to the statistical structure of the observation, stochastic parametrization are not directly tuned to match the statistics of the observations. Rather, stochastic parameterization combines deterministic, i.e physics based models with stochastic models for the "missing physics" to create hybrid models, that are stochastic, but yet can be used for making predictions, especially in the context of data assimilation. We introduce a novel measure of the utility of stochastic models of complex processes, that we call consistency of sensitivity. A model with poor consistency of sensitivity requires a great deal of tuning of parameters and has a very narrow range of realistic parameters leading to outcomes consistent with a reasonable spectrum of physical outcomes. We apply this metric to our stochastic parametrization and show that, the loss of certainty inherent in model due to its stochastic nature is offset by the model's resulting consistency of sensitivity. In particular, the stochastic model still retains the forward sensitivity of the deterministic model and hence respects important structural/physical constraints, yet has a broader range of parameters capable of producing outcomes consistent with the field data used in evaluating the model. This leads to an expanded range of model applicability. We show, in the context of data assimilation, the stochastic parametrization of longshore currents achieves good results in capturing the statistics of observation that were not used in tuning the model.

L'objectif de ce mémoire est de comprendre le fonctionnement hydro-sédimentaire des embouchures tidales dominées par la marée et la construction d'une flèche sableuse à crochets perpendiculaires. Deux sites voisins ont été choisis : les embouchures de l'Orne et de la Dives sur la côte du Calvados (Normandie). L'utilisation de données d'agitation et topographiques, acquises selon plusieurs échelles spatio-temporelles, permet d'étudier la morphodynamique de ces deux embouchures.L'embouchure de l'Orne possède une évolution soumise à une forte pression anthropique causée par de nombreuses infrastructures portuaires. Elle est comparée à celle de l'embouchure de la Dives, où l'impact anthropique est plus limité. Il apparaît que ces deux embouchures partagent les mêmes mécanismes de transports sédimentaires, avec une composante transversale importante. Ce transport vers la côte est assuré par la migration de barres de swash sur les parties aval-dérive des deltas de jusant. Ces barres de swash possèdent des volumes et des vitesses de migration similaires, comprises entre 3.5 et 8.0 m/mois.Contrairement à la Dives, les côtes en amont et en aval-dérive de l'embouchure de l'Orne sont en accrétion. Si en amont, cette accrétion suit les nombreuses phases de construction du port de Caen-Ouistreham, en aval se développe depuis un peu plus d'un siècle une flèche sableuse à la morphologie atypique. En effet, cette flèche possède plusieurs crochons emboités, dont les extrémités - les crochets - sont perpendiculaires au corps à la flèche. Il est démontré que l'attachement des barres de swash à la côte est responsable de la formation d'un nouveau crochon. La diffraction des vagues au niveau de l'extrémité des barres de swash et des crochons, ainsi que les directions locales de l'agitation, expliquent la formation des crochets perpendiculaires à l'extrémité des crochons. / The aim of this thesis is to understand the mechanisms of sediment bypassing at tidal inlets in a macrotidal environment and the formation of a sandspit with perpendicular hooks. Two closed areas are studied, the Orne and Dives inlets on the coast of Normandy (France). Wave and topographic data, at several space-time scales, are used to study the inlet morphodynamics.The Orne inlet is affected by strong human impacts due to several port facilities whereas the Dives inlet knows a limited anthropogenic impact. The study of the two inlets allows to deduce the impact of the human activities in the sediment transport patterns. The Orne and Dives inlets share the same mechanisms of sediment transport. Both show a major cross-shore component of the transport, underlines by the swash bars migration over the ebb-tidal deltas. All swash bars have similar volumes and migration rates, between 3.5 and 8.0 m/month.The Orne inlet shows deposition on both sides. The accretion on the updrift coast follows the building stages of the harbour of Caen-Ouistreham. On the downdrift coast, the deposition creates the Merville spit, which has several interlocked ridges. A perpendicular hook is present on the distal part of each ridge. This work shows that the swash bar attachment at the shoreline shapes a new ridge. Wave diffraction around the distal part of the swash bars and ridges, and the local wave directions, explain the formation of perpendicular hooks.