This paper mainly focuses on one of the new specifications of Phillips curve family, the threshold Phillips curve. By estimating the threshold model using G7 plus Australia countries quarterly data, the threshold effect is confirmed only by U.S. and Canadian Phillips curves. No strong evidence for the threshold effect was found among other countries. Moreover, the estimation results for both standard and threshold Phillips curve model indicate weak trade-o relations between inflation and unemployment. Policy makers should review Phillips curve as a forecasting tool with extra caution. Future studies can focus on specific country's threshold effect testing with detailed explanation.

Whether or not currency markets may be regarded as efficient or not has been a hotly debated issue in the academic literature over recent decades. Economic theory would suggest that these markets should be efficient because they are apparently good examples of a perfectly competitive market structure. On the other hand, empirical tests of the efficient market hypothesis within these currency markets unequivocally find them to be inefficient. There is still no good explanation for this conundrum and as a result a fair amount of effort is still expended on refining the empirical studies of market efficiency, a task which is taken up in the four empirical studies that comprise this thesis. Within efficient markets, prices are predicted to respond &quotquickly" with the arrival of new information and the empirical work in the thesis focuses on these issues by identifying three key areas for research, namely, price adjustment and volatility, volatility and the &quotnews", and the speed of price adjustment. In essence, the studies examine whether there is inefficient adjustment to news in terms of excessive volatility, whether or not news is actually the main driver of exchange rate volatility and whether or not &quotquickly" can be measured empirically. The empirical results reported within this thesis confirm that the Australian dollar has not been an excessively volatile currency, even though the level of volatility has been increasing; that the pattern of information flow explains a significant degree of the non constant variance in the returns of the world's most actively traded currencies, (i.e. information explains price innovation); that the reaction time to macroeconomic news occurs within seconds of a pre-scheduled announcement, and that the bulk of adjustment to fundamental value occurs within the hour. These findings are consistent with what would be expected within an efficient market. The results reported within this thesis therefore suggest that the currency markets studied are efficient, at least for the sample periods of the data used in the studies. Exchange rates adjust rapidly with information arrival albeit not completely. It is also the case that a number of additional research questions emerge from this research. For example we know that volatility is not excessive and that it is increasing. What we do not know is the point at which increasing volatility becomes excessive. We know that exchange rates react quickly with the arrival of macroeconomic news, but we do not know precisely how long it takes for volatility to return to preannouncement levels, or why the reaction to news is inconsistent. We also do not know what type of information best explains volatility above that which is explained by the systematic dissemination of information or why full adjustment to fundamental value does not occur? Answers to these questions provide a future research agenda. Answers may provide insight that will help financial economists explain the apparent failure of the speculative efficient hypothesis.

This study develops an economic methodology in which,behavioural laws (in the sense of necessary connections between cause and effect) play no essential role. Hayek and Menger are important sources of inspiration. Economic behaviour is explained by way of tendencies rather than laws and insight into economic phenomena is gained by laying bare their "action structure" in which behavioural explanation and behavioural laws play no role. This methodology is applied to the explanation of macroeconomic coordination. The appropriate equilibrium conditions are developed and the relevant tendencies away from or towards equilibrium are identified. The institutions responsible for these tendencies are identified and anarysed. In the light of these findings, pre-Keynesian macroeconomics, the macroeoconomics of Walrasian theory, as well as Keynes's General Theory itself are critically assessed. / Economics and Management Sciences / D. Comm. (Economics)

This thesis investigates the relationship between oil revenue and macroeconomic policies and performance in Oman. The thesis contains five empirical chapters along with introduction, literature review and conclusion. The first empirical chapter looks into the dynamic relationship between oil revenue, government spending and economic activities. The results indicate oil revenue has immediate and significant impact on both the country s GDP and the government expenditure. The government expenditure also has significant impact on the GDP. The second empirical chapter examines the validity of the Wagner s Law and the Keynesian hypothesis in regards to the relationship between the government spending and economic performance. The chapter uses both aggregated and disaggregated government expenditure where the data are divided into recurrent and capital investment. The findings show that there is a long run-relationship between the government spending and the GDP for the period covered. The causality analysis suggests that public investment causes economic growth, but the recurrent expenditure is insignificant. The third empirical chapter investigates the impact of government spending on economic performance where the government spending was decomposed into health, education and militaryexpenditure. The results of these components of the government expenditure and along with an index of openness have long-run relationship with GDP. The short-run coefficient on military spending is insignificant and that of health is negative and significant. However, the long-run coefficients are all positive and significant, except that of military. The fourth empirical chapter analyses the relationship between government expenditure and oil revenue in Oman. The disaggregated government expenditure of health, education and military are used for the analysis in order to see the response of each component to oil revenue changes. The results show that, although all the components responded positively to a positive oils revenue shock, it is the military component that has recorded highest response with more persistence. The fifth chapter investigates the relationship between the current account and the fiscal deficits in Oman. The chapter uses a threshold cointegration technique that is capable of capturing non-linearity and asymmetric adjustment between the series. The estimated results show that there is a long-run relationship between the current account and fiscal deficits in Oman and that adjustment between the series is asymmetric. It is found that upward adjustment is much faster than downward adjustment.

As modificações geradas no âmbito das decisões de políticas econômicas nacionais das últimas décadas atentaram para o papel da estabilidade macroeconômica no desempenho das economias de mercado. O controle da inflação constitui-se no objetivo primordial das autoridades monetárias que, a partir dos anos 1990, encontraram na adoção de metas de inflação um modo mais eficiente para atingir a estabilidade de preços. Segundo a literatura convencional contemporânea, os resultados do regime de metas de inflação em economias avançadas e emergentes garantem, diretamente, uma redução dos níveis e da volatilidade das taxas de inflação, uma ancoragem das expectativas inflacionárias e menores custos da desinflação em termos do produto. Entretanto, acredita-se que a intensidade e os impactos desses efeitos podem ser diferenciados ou comprometidos quando aplicados à realidade dos países emergentes. Fundamentadas nas visões críticas das implicações do regime de metas de inflação à evolução das economias emergentes, as discussões teóricas visaram expor as definições gerais do regime de metas de inflação e as questões estruturais da dinâmica macroeconômica dos mercados emergentes. Constatou-se que a preponderância dos mecanismos de transmissão da taxa de câmbio sobre a inflação, os desequilíbrios ficais, financeiros e externos, e as características de vulnerabilidade e instabilidade macroeconômicas dos países emergentes podem dificultar o funcionamento do regime de metas de inflação. Essencialmente, a avaliação empírica dos efeitos de metas de inflação sobre o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes evidenciou que, além deste regime não apresentar relevância estatística na explicação das taxas de inflação, de crescimento do produto e de juros, os movimentos da economia internacional parecem definir as condições de estabilidade macroeconômica nessas economias. Portanto, concluiu-se que a implementação de metas de inflação não melhorou nem piorou o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes que adotaram este regime a partir dos anos 1990. Tal resultado contribui no debate atual sobre a dimensão das políticas de estabilidade de preços e, em especial, os efeitos de metas de inflação em economias emergentes. / The modifications generated in the scope of national economy policy decisions in the last decades had attempted for the role of macroeconomic stability in the performance of market economies. The control of inflation consisted in the monetary authorities’ primary objective that, from the 1990 years, had found in the adoption of inflation target a more efficient way to reach the price stability. According to conventional literature contemporary, the results of inflation targeting in the advanced and emerging economies guarantee directly a reduction of the level and the volatility in the inflation rates, an anchorage inflationary expectations and lesser costs of disinflation at the product. However, one gives credit that the intensity and the impacts of effects can be differentiated or biased when applied to reality of emerging countries. Based in the critical views of inflation target implications to emerging economies evolution, the theoretical quarrels had aimed at to display the inflation target general definitions and the structural matters of emerging market macroeconomic dynamic. One evidenced that the predominance of the exchange pass through inflation, the external, financial and fiscal disturbs, and the macroeconomic vulnerability and instability characteristics of emerging countries can difficult inflation target working. Essentially, the empirical evaluation of the inflation targeting effects on the macroeconomic performance of emerging countries demonstrated that, beyond this regime not to present statistics relevance in the inflation rates, growth product and interest rates explanation, the movements of the international economy seem to define the conditions of macroeconomic stability in these economies. Therefore, one concluded that the implementation of inflation target did not improve nor got worse the macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting emergent countries from 1990s. Such result contributes in the current debate on the prices stability policies and, in special, the effect of inflation target in emergent economies.

The aim of this thesis is to observe the EU's institutional system from the viewpoint of its effectivity and impact on the economic growth and various trasnmission mechanisms. The EU is a group consisting of 27 countries from different cultural backgrounds, with different national mentalitities, economic, social and politic systems. The economical and political integration is not taking place in a spontaneous way, as a process of continuous cognition, analysis and learning from mistakes, but according to a plan comming from upper political levels and with emphasis on the aims more than on the means. In the EU there are at least 2 levels of legislature, executive and jurisdiction, each on the national and supranational level. The nature of these 2 levels is rather parallel than vertical. An important link and therefore effective feedback is missing between the supranational level and the national level represented through the vote of the population and the performance of the economic environment. Constructivistic efforts are encumbering the economy of the EU with balast, that can be understood as a pool of from the system arising ineffectivities. The result of this balast is an inhibition of the economic growth despite declarations to accelerate it. This thesis will observe these ineffectivities through a more detailed analysis of macroeconomic fields as are monetary policy, labour markets and tax systems. The emphasis will be put on concrete impacts of supranational policies on individual countries, areas inside the EU and the EU as a whole. The USA will serve as a benchmark, because the EU has the ambition to get ahead of them as the world largest economy and that by the year 2010. The nature of these ineffectivities is of a rather hidden nature and therefore I will preffer the studying of literature in fields of interest as a mean of identifying the ineffectivities rather than atual quantifications.

This thesis examines the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic aggregates. The author´s objective is to verify, whether there exists any relationship of the population ageing factors and the GDP growth rate, social expenditures growth rate and the consumption growth rate. Econometric models are based on theoretical specifications of Faruqee´s life-cycle model and Prettner´s R&D model with overlapping generations. The degree of economic development is also taken into account. Furthermore, the author modified the R&D model by incorporation of the poverty indicator and its application on available datasets. The research is focused on five European countries in 1995 - 2013. The Ordinary Least Squares method is used to gain estimated results in regression analyses. The author managed to prove an existing relationship between the old age dependency ratio and the social expenditures in all countries except Switzerland. The impact of the population ageing factor on the consumption growth rate turned out to be significant in all of those countries. Substantial fluctuations are shown only in Bulgaria and in the Czech Republic. The GDP growth rate seems to be influenced by ageing factor in the Czech Republic and in the Ukraine alone. The research has also shown that developing countries respond more dramatically to changes in the population structure distribution, while the poverty indicator plays an important role only in the Ukraine.

This diploma thesis deals with the issue of evaluation of economic development in Visegrad group countries compared to Germany in years from 2009 to 2015. The aim of the thesis is to take down and to evaluate economic development in this period based on the analysis of macroeconomic indicators. In the theoretical part, there are several notions explained, such as the definition of GDP, economic growth rate, unemployment rate, balance of payments or economic cycle. In the practical part, there is an analysis carried out which describes the concrete data development of macroeconomic indicators in Visegrad group countries in comparison to Germany. Subsequently, general characteristics of the countries are deduced. At the end of the thesis, the findings are summarized, and further possibilities of elaboration are foreshadowed.

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a few selected macroeconomic variables on the Swedish stock market index OMXS30. The study uses time series monthly data during the period 2000-2019. To investigate these relationships, the time series are transformed into stationary processes. Then, we construct a Vector autoregressive model (VAR) and conduct Granger causality tests. The results indicated a negative relationship between inflation and the return on stocks, interest rate and the return on stocks, as well as positive relationship between money supply and the return on stocks. The VAR-model and the Granger causality test failed to show any statistically significant relationship between exchange rate and stock prices. The same Granger Causality tests suggests a bidirectional relationship between interest rate and the return of OMXS30, as well as unidirectional relationship between inflation and the stock prices, where inflation Granger causes the return of OMXS30.

One of the keys for restaurant managers in conducting a proper assessment of their business opportunities is through understanding the level of risk these opportunities bear. This can be achieved by analyzing the causal relationships between external environmental forces and internal capabilities of the firm, and then make a strategic choice in what opportunities to invest. The purpose of this study was to investigate the concept of risk and its underlying dimensions that influence the restaurant industry's cash flows and stock returns. This study proposed a contemporary framework that enables restaurant industry executives to develop a better understanding of the risk factors (macroeconomic and industry) that influence their firms' cash flows and stock returns. The primary unit of analysis was at industry (portfolio) level. In addition, as a second step, three restaurant firms were selected to demonstrate the practical application of the model. Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the restaurant industry risk is represented by three dimensions: "Output," "PPI Meats," and "IP Restaurants." The macroeconomic risk construct was represented by the five variables of Arbitrage Pricing Theory of Chen et al. (1986). Time series-analysis regression of the portfolio of 75 restaurant firms, for the 1993-2004 period, revealed that macroeconomic variables explained a significant portion of restaurant stock returns. On the other hand, both macroeconomic and industry models explained a significant level of variation in operating cash flows. The addition of September 11 "dummy" variable improved the explained variation in stock returns for both equations (macroeconomic and industry). At a firm level, the industry model accounted for a significant variation in internal value drivers (operating cash flows, food cost, and labor cost) for all three restaurant companies. The industry risk model survived after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic variables on operating cash flows. The results indicate that the industry model provides a parsimonious solution in estimating variation in operating cash flows by capturing macroeconomic effects. / Ph. D.