This thesis investigates the effect of individual countries' cultural character- istics on macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability is a general con- cept that comprises the stable development of several economic parameters - inflation, government budget, external debt, gross domestic product, and oth- ers. The mainstream economics investigates these indicators usually as being shaped only by wealth, political stability and institutions. However recently, the economic literature reveals the relationship between some of the individ- ual cultural characteristics - mainly trust - and macroeconomic (in)stability. This thesis is the first attempt to analyze the effect of complex set of cultural characteristics on macroeconomic stability. Through the lens of panel data re- gression it is shown that the macroeconomic stability is significantly affected by cultural characteristics. In particular, more individualistic countries tend to have lower macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, in countries where people feel stronger fear about uncertainty the macroeconomic stability is also weaker. On the contrary from the previous studies, the positive effect of higher trust on macroeconomic stability is not confirmed. JEL Classification C33, E03, Z10, Z19 Keywords Macroeconomic stability, Cultural economics,...

The first part of this dissertation examines the presence of the financial contagion across European stock markets with respect to the Greece sovereign debt crisis by estimating the time-varying conditional correlations of stock returns between Greece and other European countries over 2001 to 2012. We find that the correlations vary over time and reach the peaks in the late 2008 during theU.S.subprime crisis, and in the beginning of 2010 of the height of European debt crisis. Further, the correlations between stock index returns of Greece and Spain, France, Ireland, Netherlands are significantly increased by Greek sovereign credit rating downgrade announcements. The second part of this dissertation examines the correlations of gold, dollar and U.S. stock returns over 2001 to 2012 using ADCC-GARCH model. The conditional correlations of gold-dollar returns are negative during all sub-sample periods and significantly increase in magnitude during both subprime crisis and sovereign debt crisis. The conditional correlations of gold-stock returns are positive on average over time. However, gold-stock correlation falls below zero during subprime crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Gold-stock correlation is significantly negatively affected by positive CPI announcements. And gold-dollar correlation is significantly negatively affected by negative GDP announcements and positive unemployment announcements. The effects of macroeconomic announcements are stronger during economic recessions.

For more than a decade, to reduce the agency problem, various ways have been examined on how to align the interest of manager with shareholders. Evidence and empirical findings are conflicting on the agency problem. Recently, deferred compensation as one incentive compensation draws the attention as a means to incentivize CEOs to make them work for the firm. However, it is still not evident if deferred compensation has effect on aligning CEOs with the firm’s goal possibly due to the issue on data. Therefore, the first essay investigates if deferred compensation has the effect on the agency problem and on the firm performance improvement after dealing with the data issue. This paper mainly aims to investigate if there is the non-linear relationship between the investment choice problem and the deferred compensation as Jensen and Meckling (1976) claim. This paper concludes that deferred compensation from NQDC table has positive and significant effect on the firm performance and the investment choice problem. More importantly, following McConnell and Servaes (1990), this paper finds the curvilinear relationship between Tobin’s Q and the deferred compensation and can confirm Jensen and Meckling (1976) theoretical application. The second essay aims to clarify the understanding on the relationship between the firm’s cash holdings and its causes by introducing the more detailed relationship between cash holdings and macroeconomic uncertainty. While previous literature tries to explain the level of cash holdings mainly by the firm-level variables, this study considers the full impact of the macroeconomic uncertainty on the level of cash holdings by introducing the firm’s heterogeneous exposure to macroeconomic uncertainty to see if the heterogeneity can tell the difference in the change in the level of cash holdings. This paper finds that macroeconomic uncertainties measured by difference macroeconomic condition variables are significant and contribute to the change in cash holdings. Additionally, this paper shows that the firms’ different level of exposure to macroeconomic uncertainty can cause the different degree of cash holdings and that firms with the higher level of exposure have the higher level of cash holdings.

The main goal of this thesis has been a study of alternative policy rules in a small structural model calibrated to capture the Czech economy. After the overview of the historic development of economic theory and structural modeling we have specified a small open economy model that has served as a main technical tool for the analysis. The model represents a framework, where forward-looking model-consistent expectations are formed with respect to the development of the exchange rate and interest rates. Inflation expectations are forward looking too with some nominal rigidities in inflation dynamics. The model's structure is relatively simple. The IS curve captures the dynamics of real GDP, that exhibits real rigidity, motivated by habit formation or investment adjustment costs. In our specification the real GDP is a function of (the deviation of) real XR, real IR and foreign demand (from corresponding equilibrium levels). The Phillips-curve is based on the F-M type wage setting behavior, therefore it enables to consider domestic prices, that are modeled as mark-ups over wages. CPI inflation then consists of domestic, imported and administered inflation, including the effect of any indirect taxes changes. The exchange rate is modeled by the UIP arbitrage condition. Exchange rate expectations are forward-looking, but with some inertia in expectation formation. Interest rates with one year maturity are also modeled as an arbitrage condition on the money market, they are fully model-consistently forward looking. The model is closed by a Taylor-type forward-looking policy rule. The interest rate exhibits some inertia and feeds back from deviation of inflation from target and output from its equilibrium. The specification (parameterization) of the rule is general enough to examine CPI and domestic inflation targeting. The model specification has been followed by empirical work leading towards the implementation of the previously specified model on Czech data. Based on the sources of the Czech Statistical Office, Czech National Bank, Consensus Economics Inc., we first processed the data by executing seasonal adjustment and other transformations necessary for being consistent with the definition of model variables. The database has been created by an automatic MATLAB based routine, therefore the calculations were relatively easy to update. The database being completed, we have set up a Kalman-filter for determining equilibrium values for the real interest rate, exchange rate and output. At the same time through Kalman filtering we identified all model residuals. We paid special attention to the decomposition of the output gap and discussing In order to assess the overall dynamic properties of the model and judge how well the model fits the data, we conducted several exercises. First we decomposed some of the important endogenous variables of the model to shocks to see, whether the identified shocks are in line with our intuition and episodes of the recent Czech economic history. We found, that the shocks are not in contrast with some of the clearly distinguishable episodes. After the shock decomposition we run in-sample simulations to see, how well the model is able to fit the reality two years ahead. We found the overall results quite encouraging. We were able to fit quite well the output gap as well as MP inflation. Domestic inflation has been slightly more inertial in model simulations than in reality, but even in this case the results were acceptable. The model was not able to fit the 2001-2 appreciation of the nominal XR footnote{Understandably it neither forecasted well the fast fall in inflation after the appreciation period.}, which is not a big surprise. The model calibration part of the thesis concludes, that the model fits the data and economic story reasonably well.

The main aim of the Master`s thesis is to compare and evaluate the system of flat tax in the Baltic States and the Slovak Republic. In the first chapter the reader will learn about a brief history of the flat tax and the general terms that relate to the topic. The second and third chapter is devoted to an analysis of the tax systems in the countries surveyed. This thesis analyzes the political and economic situation of each country before the tax reform, a description of the tax systems as originally introduced and changes over time to present. The last chapter is devoted to a detailed analysis of macroeconomic indicators in the form of graphs and verbal descriptions. Finally, in the section "4.6 The overall assessment" there is a summary of the gathered facts and the impact of flat tax on the economy of each relevant country.

Recent nancial crises have highlighted the sensitivity and vulnerability of nancial markets to in ation, which reduces the value of money and a ects the net returns of nancial instruments. In response to this, investors who are concerned with maintaining their investment's purchasing power rather than its market value are resorting to in ation linked (IL) products to hedge their in ation risk. Consequently, the in ation market has been rapidly growing for the last decade and has further great potential growth worldwide. It is highly probable that in ation linked derivatives will eventually be as common as conventional products. Another cause of the in ation market boost is the growing extension of the time frame of nancial transactions, which has generated an increase in in ation expectation; since 1980 the average time to maturity of long-dated transactions went from one decade to three decades. This is, in part, due to the ageing population in the developed world. This research investigates some alternative models in order to improve the match between model prices and observed prices in the American and South African in ation markets. It takes into account the relative illiquidity of IL products. The main tools used are L evy distributions, macroeconomic factors, no-arbitrage and pricing kernel models. L evy processes can replicate the behaviour of the return innovations of a wide range of nancial securities. Adding a stochastic time change to the L evy process randomises the market clock, thus generating stochastic volatilities, higher stochastic return moments and eventually stochastic skewness. These are observed stylised facts most conventional models do not achieve. Moreover, in contrast to the hidden factor approach, each L evy process component and its stochastic time change can readily be assigned an economic meaning. This explicit economic mapping facilitates the interpretation of current models and provides a more intuitive approach to building new models that capture other observed behaviours. Finally, L evy processes also provide tractable formulas for derivative pricing and market estimations. In general, in ation is a consequence of macroeconomic factors. Exogenous dynamics of the most signi cant of these factors are used to deduce the endogenous in ation dynamics in some of the considered models. In these cases, the calibration of the pricing kernel models requires little historical data on IL derivatives. In fact, the required macroeconomic historical data is easily available because of the current national and international legislation.

A literatura sobre testes de estresse do sistema financeiro vem crescendo substancialmente nos últimos anos devido à importância destes exercícios, destacada pela crise financeira do subprime, a sequência de falências bancárias em muitos países e a crise econômica brasileira. Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia para testes de estresse, focada em risco de crédito, para o sistema financeiro brasileiro. Após a definição do escopo, o segundo passo de um teste de estresse é a identificação das vulnerabilidades do sistema financeiro, em que se captura as relações entre fatores macroeconômicos e a inadimplência. A maior parte dos trabalhos utiliza um conjunto limitado de fatores macroeconômicos. Este trabalho propôs a utilização de mais de 300 variáveis e uma análise fatorial para obter fatores macroeconômicos que consideram um conjunto mais abrangente de variáveis em um modelo ARIMAX. Além disso, os trabalhos comumente empregam modelos de dados em painel, VAR, séries temporais ou modelos de regressão linear. Porém, a mudança em uma variável raramente afeta outra instantaneamente, pois o efeito é distribuído ao longo do tempo. Neste trabalho é proposto o modelo de defasagem distribuída polinomial, que considera este efeito ao estimar os parâmetros defasados por meio de um polinômio de segundo grau. Os modelos foram construídos utilizando o período de março de 2007 a agosto de 2016 como período de modelagem e setembro de 2016 a agosto de 2017 como período de validação fora do tempo. Para os meses de validação, os modelos propostos apresentaram menor soma dos quadrados dos erros. O terceiro passo é a calibração de um cenário de estresse adverso e plausível, que pode ser obtido pelos métodos histórico, hipotético e probabilístico. Nota-se uma lacuna na literatura brasileira, suprida neste trabalho, em que não há propostas de cenários hipotéticos e históricos (que consideram todas as crises de 2002, crise subprime de 2008 e crise de 2015/2017) para o Brasil. Notou-se que os choques históricos geram valores mais severos que os hipotéticos, e há variáveis mais sensíveis aos diferentes tipos de crises econômicas. Ao verificar o impacto do cenário obtido para as instituições, a inadimplência estimada em cenário de estresse foi de 6,38%, um aumento de 68% em relação ao cenário base. Este aumento foi semelhante, um pouco mais severo, aos choques obtidos na literatura brasileira e ao Relatório de Estabilidade Financeira construído pelo Banco Central do Brasil, que estima que o sistema bancário está preparado para absorver um cenário de estresse macroeconômico. / Studies on stress testing the financial system has been growing substantially recently due to the importance of these exercises, highlighted by the subprime financial crisis, the bank failures sequence in many countries and the Brazilian economic crisis. This paper proposes a stress test methodology, focused on credit risk, for the Brazilian financial system. After the scope definition, the second step of a stress test is the vulnerabilities of the financial system identification, in which the relation between macroeconomic factors and credit risk are captured. Most papers use a limited set of macroeconomic factors. This paper proposes the use of more than 300 variables and a factor analysis to obtain macroeconomic factors to consider a more comprehensive set of variables in an ARIMAX model. In addition, academic papers commonly employ panel data models, VAR, time series or linear regression models. However, changing one variable rarely affects another instantaneously because the effect is distributed over time. In this work the polynomial distributed lag model is proposed, which considers this effect when estimating the lagged parameters by a second degree polynomial. The models were constructed using March 2007 to August 2016 as a modeling period and September 2016 to August 2017 as an out of time validation period. For the validation period, the proposed models presented a smaller sum of the squares errors. The third step is the calibration of an adverse and plausible stress scenario, which can be obtained by historical, hypothetical and probabilistic methods. We note a gap in the Brazilian literature, provided in this paper, in which there are no hypothetical and historical scenarios (which consider all crises of 2002, subprime crisis of 2008 and crisis of 2015/2017) for Brazil. It was noted that historical shocks generate more severe values than hypothetical shocks, and there are variables more sensitive to different types of economic crises. When verifying the impact of the scenario obtained for the institutions, the estimated default in the stress scenario was 6.38%, an increase of 68% in relation to the base scenario. This increase was similar, somewhat more severe, to the shocks obtained in the Brazilian literature and to the Financial Stability Report built by the Central Bank of Brazil, which estimates that the banking system is prepared to absorb a macroeconomic stress scenario.

Este estudo versa sobre uma investigação de viabilidade da utilização de redes neurais auto-organizadas na classificação e exploração de dados macroeconômicos. Para tanto, foi elaborado um método no qual foram empregadas topologias neurais auto-organizadas, procurando assim explorar as características de melhor desempenho de cada um dos modelos, sob um enfoque seqüencial e com o intuito de se adquirir conhecimento intermediário em cada uma de suas fases, diminuindo o impacto da complexidade tanto no tempo requerido para realização da tarefa quanto na análise dos resultados. Os próprios resultados obtidos sugerem que a utilização de redes neurais artificiais auto-organizadas na aquisição de conhecimento sobre bases de dados aplicáveis às Ciências Econômicas apresenta desempenho análogo aos modelos paramétricos tradicionalmente empregados na construção de cenários com tais informações. / This study turns on an inquiry of viability of the use of self-organizing neural nets in classification and exploration of macroeconomic data. For this purpose, a method in which had been used self-organized neural topologies was elaborated, looking to explore the better characteristics of performance of each one of the models, under a sequential approach and with objective of acquiring intermediate knowledge in each one of its phases, diminishing the impact of the complexity as in time consuming as in analysis of results. Main results obtained suggest the use of self-organized artificial neural nets in acquisition of knowledge on Economic databases presents analog performance to traditional parametric models in scenarios building.

Recently the topic of the future of Ukrainian economy has been attracting great attention among economists and politicians. The way how it should develop is widely discussed on the international arena. Economists and politicians cannot reach an agreement to which direction it is better to move for Ukraine. Nowadays a lot of special institutions have been created on both sides: in Ukraine and in Europe. The main goal of those is to control all the processes of transformation to be transparent on all levels; as well as prevent unlikely events. Of course, there are proponents and opponents of the moving to the free trade with the EU as for every global process. Among the young generation it is very clear, that possibilities, which gives us European Union are much more valuable and gainful. Even now, majority of students and researchers seek to apply or acquire some knowledge in European countries. I'm not an exception and for this reason, being a representative of young generation, I will try to determine potential impact on Economy of Ukraine assuming integration to European Union. It is very important to consider both threats and benefits of such processes as they are taking place on very high level. Therefore, in this work it will be considered both contours of development for Economy of Ukraine....

Recently the topic of the future of Ukrainian economy has been attracting great attention among economists and politicians. The way how it should develop is widely discussed on the international arena. Economists and politicians cannot reach an agreement to which direction it is better to move for Ukraine. Nowadays a lot of special institutions has been created on both sides: in Ukraine and in Europe. The main goal of those is to control all the processes of transformation to be transparent on all levels; as well as prevent unlikely events. Of course, there are proponents and opponents of the moving to the free trade with the EU as for every global process. Among the young generation it is very clear, that possibilities, which gives us European Union are much more valuable and gainful. Even now, majority of students, researchers seek to apply their knowledge or gain some knowledge in European countries. I try to determine potential impact on Economy of Ukraine assuming integration to European Union. It is very important to consider both threats and benefits of such processes as they are taking place on very high level. Therefor in this work I will consider both contours of development for Economy of Ukraine. To explore it I have applied the synthetic control method, which gives us opportunity to...