A volatile real exchange rate and high unemployment rate is a growing concern in South Africa, therefore the right macroeconomic policy is required. The challenge is to find stability in the real exchange rate paired with a low inflation rate, both of which are necessary to promote long term economic growth, which in turn creates more job opportunities. This study analyses the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa by considering quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2013. In this study, the macroeconomic transmission channel is divided into two transmission paths, imports and exports. These find their roots in the Phillips curve and the Keynesian theory on unemployment respectively. The vector error correction model (VECM), together with an analysis of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions, are implemented to determine the short and long run impacts of the exchange rate on unemployment. After the completion of a variety of specifications, estimations and tests, both macroeconomic transmission paths revealed in the empirical analysis that the real exchange rate has a significant impact on unemployment. In the imports transmission path, the real exchange rate, imports and the CPI have significant long term relationships with unemployment. Furthermore, the exports transmission path found significant short term relations with unemployment in considering the real exchange rate, exports and economic growth. The impulse responses in both transmission paths indicated that a shock in the exchange rate will have a significant effect on unemployment in the short run. Similar results were found with the variance decomposition. In the import transmission path, movements in the real exchange rate explained an increasing portion of the variance in unemployment. Alternatively, in the export transmission path the real exchange rate and exports explained an increasing portion of the variance. The evidence therefore suggests that South Africa should focus more on stabilising the exchange rate, since fluctuations in unemployment are a result of shocks in the real exchange rate, following the macroeconomic transmission channels discussed. / MCom (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015

Changes in economic, environmental and social conditions have exposed our society to many challenges such as hunger and poverty, epidemic diseases and dramatic climate changes. As business entities operating within the community, companies have the immense task of assisting the community to address these challenges. To carry out this task, companies use socially responsible investment (SRI) initiatives in the effort to give back to local communities. These initiatives focus on environmental, social and economic activities that seek to improve the wellbeing of the community at large. The theoretical explanations behind SRI strategies tend to stimulate discussions and contestations about the motive behind SRI initiatives and their relevance to the companies and the community concerned. Some theories purport that a company should have a sole social responsibility goal of creating wealth for its shareholders, while others consider SRI initiatives as a means of interaction between a company and its immediate community. Despite these different views, SRI theories concur that companies’ SRI initiatives can contribute to economic development. The study reported in this document used a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to analyse the effects of the SRI sector on micro- and macroeconomic development in South Africa. The key empirical objectives of the study were to: assess the effect of SRI initiatives on the financial performance of South African companies; determine the volatility of the SRI Index relative to the overall stock market; establish the interactions between various macroeconomic variables and the South African SRI sector; identify the involvement of the local community in designing SRI initiatives; determine local communities’ perceptions towards implementation of SRI initiatives; and assess how various socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of community members affect their perceptions towards SRI initiatives. Primary data were collected through interviews and quetiapine; while secondary data running from May 2004 to June 2014 was obtained from the JSE, McGregor BFA and SARB. The data include variables such as the share returns of companies in the SRI Index and various macroeconomic variables. The econometric models used to analyse the data included the Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model (VECM), generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Granger causality test, the event study methodology and binary logistic regression. Results of the event study methodology showed that an improvement in companies’ involvement in SRI initiatives is linked with positive returns; however, such positive returns were not statistically significant. On the contrary, a decline in a company’s involvement in SRI initiatives is associated with significant negative abnormal returns. Further analysis showed that the South African SRI index is not exposed to any unique volatility. The analysis on the relationship between the SRI Index (a proxy for the sector) and macroeconomic variables suggests that development of the South African SRI sector is linked with macroeconomic growth and stability. To analyse the effect of SRI initiatives at a microeconomic level, an SRI initiative of implemented by a specific company in Bophelong Township formed the basis of the analysis. Findings revealed that this initiative benefited less privileged community members through the creation of temporary employment and provision of skills that created opportunities for future employment. Households with low economic status, those headed by a female or unemployed head were the most satisfied with the SRI initiative compared to others beneficiaries of the SRI initiative. Thus, the SRI initiative positively impacted the relationship between the company and community members, while at the same time creating expectations for future initiatives within the community. This study concluded that SRI initiatives must be aligned with the needs of the community in order to contribute to both micro- and macroeconomic development. As much as companies are expected to implement socially responsible initiatives, community members should also be encouraged to meet these companies halfway through programmes such as volunteering. Findings of this study can assist policy makers and companies in aligning SRI initiatives with the needs of the community, improving the involvement of community members in SRI initiatives, developing strategies to reduce the costs associated with SRI initiatives and, hence, increasing the impact of SRI initiatives. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

A volatile real exchange rate and high unemployment rate is a growing concern in South Africa, therefore the right macroeconomic policy is required. The challenge is to find stability in the real exchange rate paired with a low inflation rate, both of which are necessary to promote long term economic growth, which in turn creates more job opportunities. This study analyses the impact of the exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa by considering quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2013. In this study, the macroeconomic transmission channel is divided into two transmission paths, imports and exports. These find their roots in the Phillips curve and the Keynesian theory on unemployment respectively. The vector error correction model (VECM), together with an analysis of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions, are implemented to determine the short and long run impacts of the exchange rate on unemployment. After the completion of a variety of specifications, estimations and tests, both macroeconomic transmission paths revealed in the empirical analysis that the real exchange rate has a significant impact on unemployment. In the imports transmission path, the real exchange rate, imports and the CPI have significant long term relationships with unemployment. Furthermore, the exports transmission path found significant short term relations with unemployment in considering the real exchange rate, exports and economic growth. The impulse responses in both transmission paths indicated that a shock in the exchange rate will have a significant effect on unemployment in the short run. Similar results were found with the variance decomposition. In the import transmission path, movements in the real exchange rate explained an increasing portion of the variance in unemployment. Alternatively, in the export transmission path the real exchange rate and exports explained an increasing portion of the variance. The evidence therefore suggests that South Africa should focus more on stabilising the exchange rate, since fluctuations in unemployment are a result of shocks in the real exchange rate, following the macroeconomic transmission channels discussed. / MCom (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015

Changes in economic, environmental and social conditions have exposed our society to many challenges such as hunger and poverty, epidemic diseases and dramatic climate changes. As business entities operating within the community, companies have the immense task of assisting the community to address these challenges. To carry out this task, companies use socially responsible investment (SRI) initiatives in the effort to give back to local communities. These initiatives focus on environmental, social and economic activities that seek to improve the wellbeing of the community at large. The theoretical explanations behind SRI strategies tend to stimulate discussions and contestations about the motive behind SRI initiatives and their relevance to the companies and the community concerned. Some theories purport that a company should have a sole social responsibility goal of creating wealth for its shareholders, while others consider SRI initiatives as a means of interaction between a company and its immediate community. Despite these different views, SRI theories concur that companies’ SRI initiatives can contribute to economic development. The study reported in this document used a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to analyse the effects of the SRI sector on micro- and macroeconomic development in South Africa. The key empirical objectives of the study were to: assess the effect of SRI initiatives on the financial performance of South African companies; determine the volatility of the SRI Index relative to the overall stock market; establish the interactions between various macroeconomic variables and the South African SRI sector; identify the involvement of the local community in designing SRI initiatives; determine local communities’ perceptions towards implementation of SRI initiatives; and assess how various socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of community members affect their perceptions towards SRI initiatives. Primary data were collected through interviews and quetiapine; while secondary data running from May 2004 to June 2014 was obtained from the JSE, McGregor BFA and SARB. The data include variables such as the share returns of companies in the SRI Index and various macroeconomic variables. The econometric models used to analyse the data included the Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model (VECM), generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Granger causality test, the event study methodology and binary logistic regression. Results of the event study methodology showed that an improvement in companies’ involvement in SRI initiatives is linked with positive returns; however, such positive returns were not statistically significant. On the contrary, a decline in a company’s involvement in SRI initiatives is associated with significant negative abnormal returns. Further analysis showed that the South African SRI index is not exposed to any unique volatility. The analysis on the relationship between the SRI Index (a proxy for the sector) and macroeconomic variables suggests that development of the South African SRI sector is linked with macroeconomic growth and stability. To analyse the effect of SRI initiatives at a microeconomic level, an SRI initiative of implemented by a specific company in Bophelong Township formed the basis of the analysis. Findings revealed that this initiative benefited less privileged community members through the creation of temporary employment and provision of skills that created opportunities for future employment. Households with low economic status, those headed by a female or unemployed head were the most satisfied with the SRI initiative compared to others beneficiaries of the SRI initiative. Thus, the SRI initiative positively impacted the relationship between the company and community members, while at the same time creating expectations for future initiatives within the community. This study concluded that SRI initiatives must be aligned with the needs of the community in order to contribute to both micro- and macroeconomic development. As much as companies are expected to implement socially responsible initiatives, community members should also be encouraged to meet these companies halfway through programmes such as volunteering. Findings of this study can assist policy makers and companies in aligning SRI initiatives with the needs of the community, improving the involvement of community members in SRI initiatives, developing strategies to reduce the costs associated with SRI initiatives and, hence, increasing the impact of SRI initiatives. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

Recently, construction cost variations have been larger and less predictable. These variations are apparent in trends of indices such as Engineering News Record (ENR) Construction Cost Index (CCI) and National Highway Construction Cost Index (NHCCI). These variations are problematic for cost estimation, bid preparation and investment planning. Inaccurate cost estimation can result in bid loss or profit loss for contractors and hidden price contingencies, delayed or cancelled projects, inconsistency in budgets and unsteady flow of projects for owner organizations. Cost variation has become a major concern in all industry sectors, such as infrastructure, heavy industrial, light industrial, and building. The major problem is that construction cost is subject to significant variations that are difficult to forecast. The objectives of this dissertation are to identify the leading indicators of CCI and NHCCI from existing macroeconomic, energy and construction market variables and create appropriate models to use the information in past values of CCI and NHCCI and their leading indicators in order to forecast CCI and NHCCI more accurately than existing CCI and NHCCI forecasting models. A statistical approach based on multivariate time series analysis is used as the main research approach. The first step is to identify leading indicators of construction cost variations. A pool of 16 candidate (potential) leading indicators is initially selected based on a comprehensive literature review about construction cost variations. Then, the leading indicators of CCI are identified from the pool of candidate leading indicators using empirical tests including correlation tests, unit root tests, and Granger causality tests. The identified leading indicators represent the macroeconomic and construction market context in which the construction cost is changing. Based on the results of statistical tests, several multivariate time series models are created and compared with existing models for forecasting CCI. These models take advantage of contextual information about macroeconomic condition, energy price and construction market for forecasting CCI accurately. These multivariate time series models are rigorously diagnosed using statistical tests including Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation Lagrange multiplier tests and Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) tests. They are also compared with each other and other existing models. Comparison is based on two typical error measures: out-of-sample mean absolute prediction error and out-of-sample mean squared error. Based on the unit root tests and Granger causality tests, consumer price index, crude oil price, producer price index, housing starts and building permits are selected as leading indicators of CCI. In other words, past values of these variables contain information that is useful for forecasting CCI. Based on the results of cointegration tests, Vector Error Correction (VEC) models are created as proper multivariate time series models to forecast CCI. Our results show that the multivariate time series model including CCI and crude oil price pass diagnostic tests successfully. It is also more accurate than existing models for forecasting CCI in terms of out-of-sample mean absolute prediction error and out-of-sample mean square error. The predictability of the multivariate time series modeling for forecasting CCI is also evaluated using stochastically simulated data (Simulated CCI and crude oil price). First, 50 paths of crude oil price are created using Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Then, 50 paths of CCI are created using Gaussian Process that is considering the relationship between CCI and crude oil price over time. Finally, 50 multivariate and univariate time series models are created using the simulated data and the predictability of univariate and multivariate time series models are compared. The results show that the multivariate modeling is more accurate than univariate modeling for forecasting simulated CCI. The sensitivity of the models to inputs is also examined by adding errors to the simulated data and conducting sensitivity analysis. The proposed approach is also implemented for identifying the leading indicators of NHCCI from the pool of candidate leading indicators and creating appropriate multivariate forecasting models that use the information in past values of NHCCI and its leading indicators. Based on the unit root tests and Granger causality tests, crude oil price and average hourly earnings in the construction industry are selected as leading indicators of NHCCI. In other words, past values of these variables contain information that is useful for forecasting NHCCI. Based on the results of cointegration tests, Vector Error Correction (VEC) models are created as the proper multivariate time series models to forecast NHCCI. The results show that the VEC model including NHCCI and crude oil price, and the VEC model including NHCCI, crude oil price, and average hourly earnings pass diagnostic tests. These VEC models are also more accurate than the univariate models for forecasting NHCCI in terms of out-of-sample prediction error and out-of-sample mean square error. The findings of this dissertation contribute to the body of knowledge in construction cost forecasting by rigorous identification of the leading indicators of construction cost variations and creation of multivariate time series models that are more accurate than the existing models for forecasting construction cost variations. It is expected that proposed forecasting models enhance the theory and practice of construction cost forecasting and help cost engineers and capital planners prepare more accurate bids, cost estimates and budgets for capital projects.

This thesis is concerned with two main questions. Do systemic banking crises substantially affect the income distribution in a country? Is income inequality a destabilising factor for the macro-economy? In order to answer the first question, this thesis examines a panel of 26 countries since 1900 and assembles a new database of crises, finding that the impact of major banking crises on the national income shares detained by the income groups within the richest decile is mostly small in magnitude. Indeed, the estimated impact is never bigger than a standard deviation of the specific top shares under investigation. Results are also confirmed in a separate analysis for the United States and are robust to a series of checks. These findings lend indirect support to the structuralist hypothesis that only substantial changes in government policies and institutional frameworks can bring about radical changes in income distribution. The analysis also highlights interesting heterogeneity across different income groups, country groups and time periods. The second question is addressed by making use of a newly assembled database on different dimensions of economic inequality. The new data helps to reject the statistical validity of the hypotheses that either growing inequality or a high level of inequality may systematically precede the onset of major banking crises. In addition, simulations based on the UK Family Expenditure Survey data find that even a full equalisation of income would increase the aggregate consumption by 3 percentage points at most. These findings, taken together, point out that an increase in income inequality may not concur to reduce the pressure on aggregate demand or be adduced as a structural factor of financial instability. Nonetheless, the evidence is not yet clear cut as the work further documents that periods of increasing income inequality in the UK were also associated with a reduction of the saving rates across the whole income distribution since 1968. The analysis contends that such evidence of under-saving behaviour may be consistent with the relative income hypothesis and some of its recent formulations such as the ’expenditure cascades’ theory.

本論文主要研究主題為股票市場流動性的共同影響因子，並檢定總體經濟變數是否能對股票市場整體流動性的變動提供解釋。 過去對於流動性相關主題的研究多半著重於個別股票流動性與其股價高低，股價變動程度以及公司個別事件如股票分割等對其股票流動性所造成的影響。而本文則是針對在台灣股票市場交易之個股為標的，探討總體經濟變數對股票市場整體流動性的影響。與過去文獻實證結果相同的是，台灣股票市場交易的不同個股之流動性的確存在共同的影響因子。而在流動性解釋因子的實證方面，結果顯示總體經濟變數中的匯率，工業生產指數，以及貨幣供給額之變動率皆對股票之流動性有正面的影響。而利率與通貨膨脹變動率則與股票流動性存在著負向的相關性。除此之外，本研究也發現以上各總體變數對股票流動性的影響力會隨景氣循環的不同階段而有所差異。 本論文之實證結果不但增進我們對股票市場整體流動性長期變化的了解，同時也更進一步建立起總體經濟與股票市場流動性之間的關聯。 / This study investigates the common factors of the stock market liquidity and examine whether the variations of liquidity can be explained by the general macroeconomic variables. In contrast with pervious research which focuses on the firm-specific determinants of liquidity, our study emphasizes the influence of a macro-perspective aspect on the market-wide liquidity. Consistent with what other studies documented in the U.S. security market, we first evidence commonality in liquidity in Taiwan stock market. We also find exchange rate, industrial production index, and money supply are positively correlated with stock liquidity while interest rate and inflation rate are negatively related to liquidity. Furthermore, we show that macroeconomic variables impose influences of different magnitudes on stock liquidity during different stages of business cycles though the empirical results are not statistically significant in our study. This research helps us learn more about the relationship between stock market liquidity and the macro economy and provides another prospect of how liquidity changes in the long run.

High inflation economies, especially the Latin American cases like Argentina and Brazil, have ultimately been successful in stabilising their prices using the exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Contrary to conventional wisdom inflation in these cases has not been reduced at the cost of temporary recessions, instead, they have shown positive output effects. Various theoretical explanations of such boom-cycles are discussed and a model generating such an outcome is developed. Some empirical evidence is given by the Brazilian "Real Plan" of 1994. Nevertheless, the medium and long-term effects of such programmes can result in recessions and a resumption of high inflation, although the cases show that such "postponed stabilisation costs" can be overcome by adequate and flexible supply-side policies accompanying the stabilisation programme. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This thesis examines the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Pakistan by utilizing an open economy framework. There is a great need for research about the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies as the knowledge of the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy could prove useful to policymakers and help them understand the macroeconomic adjustment processes of these policy measures.

The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...