The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of macroeconomic conditions on capital structure choices of listed South African firms. Three variables were identified to be of interest, namely: real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate. The sample consisted of 230 listed firms, and analysis was done through fixed-effect regression. Macroeconomic variables were found to have an effect on capital structure choice of firms. Real GDP growth was found to have a positive influence on long term and overall leverage. Whilst inflation was found to have a negative effect on long term and overall leverage. Unemployment rate, on the other hand, was found to positively influence long term leverage, short term leverage and overall leverage. The findings from this study on the influence of both real GDP growth and inflation on leverage suggest that firm management make decisions on issuance of short term debt in a different manner to long term debt. The same was not true with unemployment rate though, this variable influenced both types for leverage in a similar manner. These findings have some implications for how managers should think about macroeconomic changes when making decisions on their firm‟s capital structure. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2014 / pagibs2015 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / Unrestricted

Orientador: Bruno Martarello De Conti / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T06:29:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VanNoije_Paulo_D.pdf: 4388677 bytes, checksum: d0f5bf16ef493c4f8341d7146c487117 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: As economias capitalistas apresentam, recorrentemente, situações em que nem todas as mercadorias são vendidas, aspecto que nem sempre é levado em conta pela teoria ortodoxa. O objetivo do trabalho é fazer uma análise teórica de macroeconomia dinâmica para ver o que gera esse problema e o que permite que ele seja contornado. Defende-se na tese que: i) não só a possibilidade de haver reserva de valor que gera esse problema, mas também o fato da produção distribuir um poder de compra menor do que o preço de oferta agregada, por conta do lucro, causando a necessidade de que ocorram gastos autônomos em relação ao poder de compra distribuído para que as duas variáveis ¿ preço de oferta agregada e poder de compra ¿ possam se igualar; ii) a realização econômica no sistema depende de um permanente crescimento dos passivos (e.g. crédito), com novos recursos sendo criados e direcionados para a circulação das mercadorias. Porém, a implicação direta da resolução do problema no período corrente é a ampliação do problema para os períodos seguintes, devido aos efeitos causados por essa solução nos balanços patrimoniais ¿ ativos e passivos. A metodologia utilizada partirá de uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema da realização econômica, passando para a construção de modelos teóricos simplificados, com o intuito de verificar em que circunstâncias ocorrem o problema da realização e, por fim, apresentará as características que aproximam a resolução desse problema, pelo sistema capitalista, ao mecanismo de funcionamento das pirâmides financeiras. Para tanto, essa pesquisa estudará não só os fluxos econômicos, como também os determinantes das decisões que envolvem os estoques financeiros e de riqueza / Abstract: Capitalist economies have, repeatedly, situations where not all the goods are sold, an aspect that is not always taken into account by the orthodox theory. The objective is to make a theoretical analysis of dynamic macroeconomics to see what generates this problem and allowing it to be bypassed. It is argued in the thesis that: i) not only the possibility of a store of value that generates this problem, but also the fact of production distribute less purchasing power than the aggregate offer price, on account of profit, causing need for autonomous spending to occur in relation to purchasing power distributed so that the two variables - aggregate offer price and purchasing power - can match; ii) the realization in the system depends on a constant increase in liabilities (eg credit), with new features being created and directed to the movement of goods. However, the direct implication of the resolution of the problem in the current period is the expansion of the problem for the following periods due to the effects caused by this solution in the balance sheet - assets and liabilities. The methodology start with a literature review on the topic of realization, reaching the construction of simplified theoretical models in order to ascertain under what circumstances occur the realization problem and finally present the characteristics approaching the resolution of this problem, by the capitalist system, as the operation mechanism of pyramids schemes. Therefore, this research will study not only the economic flows, as well as the determinants of decisions involving financial and wealth stocks / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

Orientador: Eduardo Strachman / Resumo: O objetivo geral do presente estudo é examinar o comportamento dos maiores bancos comerciais no Brasil, em um contexto de expansão do crédito, para desenvolver uma compreensão mais profunda a respeito do setor bancário em uma economia monetária da produção. O objetivo específico é identificar padrões de comportamentos dos bancos comerciais brasileiros no período 2003 – 2010. A hipótese principal desta pesquisa é, o papel do sistema bancário como complexo, essencial e ativo na economia; ante um sistema passivo como um simples intermediador entre poupadores e investidores. Deste modo, parte-se da hipótese que a participação ativa do sistema bancário é fundamental na determinação do volume de financiamento do investimento. Este estudo, além de ajudar no aprofundamento da compreensão do papel fundamental que os bancos desempenham no estabelecimento das condições de financiamento e na determinação do nível de atividade econômica, deve ajudar no aprimoramento da discussão literária a respeito das relações bancos públicos e privados. Conclui-se que por causa da crise financeira, ficou evidente a importância da existência e atuação de um sistema bancário misto no Brasil, privado e público, para atuar de forma anticíclica quando a economia começar a desacelerar, de forma a sustentar a demanda por crédito das empresas produtivas em face da contração do crédito privado. Uma vez que por padrão os bancos privados possuem uma alta preferência por liquidez ao menor sinal de desaceleração da... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The general objective of the present study is to examine the behavior of the largest commercial banks in Brazil, in a context of credit expansion, to develop a deeper perception of respect for the banking sector in a monetary production economy. The specific objective is to identify patterns of execution of commercial banks in the period 2003 - 2010. The main hypothesis of this research is, the role of the banking system as complex, essential and active in the economy; before a passive system as a simple intermediary between investors and investors. In this way, it is assumed that the active participation of the banking system is fundamental in determining the volume of investment financing. This study, in addition to helping to deepen the understanding of the fundamental role of banks that perform in the establishment of financing conditions and determines the level of economic activity, should help to improve literary discussion and respect public and public relations. He concluded that because of the financial crisis, it became evident the importance of action and a banking system in Brazil, private and public, to execute an anti-cyclical way when an economy started to slow down, in order to sustain a demand for credit from productive companies in the contraction private credit. Since the pattern of private banks has a high preference for liquidity and the slightest sign of a slowdown in the economy. / Mestre

This dissertation consists on three essays, inquiring about the usefulness of disaggregated data and cross-sectional causal effects to improve our understanding of traditional questions in macroeconomics, both for economic fluctuations and long-run outcomes. In Chapter 1, I explore whether the large body of cross-sectional evidence that established the adverse effects of cuts in the supply of bank lending on firm outcomes and the allocation of credit is relevant at the aggregate level. I estimate this aggregate effect using a new general equilibrium model that incorporates multibank firms, relationship banking, endogenous credit dependence, and bank market power. I use a set of cross-sectional patterns to estimate the key structural parameters of the model. The effect of an aggregate lending cut on aggregate output is large: a 1 percent decline in aggregate bank lending supply reduces aggregate output by 0.2 percent. The structure of labor and credit markets is important in reaching this answer. Under an alternative parametrization of the model that ignores input market frictions, the response of aggregate output is three times smaller. Under my preferred parametrization, the cross-sectional effects survive aggregation in general equilibrium. Instead, with frictionless input markets the cross-sectional patterns over-estimate the aggregate response by a factor of five. In Chapter 2, written with Sergio Ocampo, we study how the efficacy of development policies---such as job-guarantee programs, unemployment insurance, and micro-finance---depends on the prevalence of low-earning self-employed individuals. To this end, we develop a new general equilibrium occupational choice model that is consistent with the behavior and composition of self-employment. Our model differs from previous work by allowing unemployment risk to shape the selection of agents into self-employment. Models that rely only on financial frictions are at odds with crucial features of self-employment in developing economies---in particular, the concentration of self-employed agents among the lowest earners in the economy, and their willingness to accept salaried jobs when offered to them. These features support the prevalence of subsistence entrepreneurs in developing economies, who play a critical role in shaping policy responses. Their willingness to accept jobs at market wages leads to a muted response of wages to labor demand shocks, such as the implementation of a job-guarantee program. In addition, offering small unemployment benefits reduces subsistence entrepreneurship, thereby increasing productivity and output. In contrast, micro-finance exacerbates subsistence entrepreneurship, thereby reducing productivity. Finally, in chapter 3, with Andres Drenik and Pablo Ottonello, we study the importance of information frictions in asset markets at the aggregate level. We develop a methodology to identify the extent of information frictions based on a broad class of models of trade in asset markets, which predict that these frictions affect the relationship between listed prices and selling probabilities. We apply our methodology to physical capital markets data, using a unique dataset on a panel of nonresidential structures listed for trade. We show that the patterns of prices and duration are consistent with the presence of asymmetric information. On the one hand, capital units that are more expensive because of their observable characteristics tend to have lower duration, as predicted by models of trading under a full information model. On the other hand, capital units that are expensive beyond their observable characteristics tend to have a longer duration, as predicted by models of trading under asymmetric information. Combining model and data, we estimate that asymmetric information can explain 21% of the +30% dispersion in price differences of units with similar observed characteristics. We quantify the effects of information frictions on allocations, prices, and liquidity, and show that the estimated degree of information frictions can to lead to 15% lower output due to low trading probabilities of high-quality capital.

This dissertation was a study of the impact of financial innovation upon financial institutions and some of the collateral macroeconomics effects. Financial innovation has impacted the distribution of household assets throughout the Group of Seven (G-7) countries and indirectly negatively influenced the usage of traditional monetary aggregates as a reliable tool to forecast the growth in the domestic money supply between 1960 and 1990. The empirical results indicate that the adoption of financial innovations by large U.S. commercial banks has not influenced their return on equity and the return of assets between 1990 and 1994. The variability of the return on equity and return on assets is reduced by those banks that have incorporated financial innovations over time. The policy implications of these results indicate that sufficient market instruments exist to assist banks to control interest rate exposure caused by the volatility of interest rates and uncertain funding sources. Any intervention by regulatory authorities could be welfare-decreasing for banks and possibly increase the level of interest rates or reduce the supply of credit to prospective borrowers.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run flexibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging. / Economics

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Several currencies have arisen as credible competitors for the dollar's primary reserve currency position in central banks around the globe, and many wonder how long the dollar can maintain its position. Reserve currency usage is dependent relative to the size of the home economy, openness to trade, and prosperous and stable growth, including an inertial bias. This paper utilizes econometric methods to examine the significance of macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status. The dataset is gathered from the IMF's COFER database using a time period from 2000 to 2013 in order to capture the most relevant reserve levels post-euro adoption. The estimated coefficient values indicate a significant inertial bias. This result implies that we can expect the dollar to hold the primary reserve currency position for the near future.

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