<p>This dissertation investigates the economic behavior of families in developing settings. Utilizing uniquely rich, longitudinal survey data from Indonesia, it demonstrates the complexity of market environments facing rural households, as well as the importance of extended family networks in determining the health and well-being of young children. These essays serve as an illustration of advances in development economics that are possible when fundamental models are revisited and examined with new longitudinal data. The results of these exercises are important not only for updating economic models of behavior, but for what they reveal about the complexities of decision making, and for the effective design and evaluation of development policy around the world.</p> / Dissertation

Taiwan¡¦s mango peasants and industries can gain from trade, especially by exporting high-quality mangos to high-income countries of the world ( like Japan ). But there are still some Taiwanese mango peasants who suffer from low bargaining power in a nearly perfectly competitive market and the downward trend of market prices. By interviewing peasants and middlemen about marketing channels of mangos of Yujing Township in Tainan County, I found the following aspects as crucial for a high-profit marketing of mango: agricultural technology, grading and packaging, quality control and logistical conditions as well as a better interaction between peasants, farmers¡¦ associations, enterprises and governmental institutions. Thus, I consider using markets segmentation as a good strategy in order to increase the competitiveness of agricultural products and lower nontariff trade barriers, therefore help raising peasants¡¦ bargaining power and solute the problem of downward trend of market prices. Markets segmentation is a term used in order to describe the segmentation of agricultural products according to their characteristics. The four aspects mentioned above make the markets segmentation efficient. Good interactions between peasants, farmers¡¦ associations, enterprises and governmental institutions can facilitate the operation in the marketing system and thus increase the value of agricultural products. This study also inspires China¡¦s peasants as well as makes China government the scholar who research problems about agriculture, rural areas and peasantry understand the problems of Mainland China¡¦s agricultural products marketing.

Taiwan electron industry was development, brand of management and original equipment manufacturer is each to have the dissimilarity develop the mode, how organize the arrangement with whole combine, carry on organizational change and design to let to operate maximization, support high to grow up and high the market share is all executives must the depth consider of important subject. This research case A computer company in 2004, which won the world's motherboard market share of companies with the highest. From 2005 to 2009, enterprise merger & acquisitions brand and original equipment manufacturer to divide inheritance of organizational activity, inquire into the whole process in the business activity and fluctuating of the business organization. Also, this research case takes the A computer company-enterprise and government department as an example, in the organizational change, how to expand a business market, and anticipate with the interview, through from interview to northern, central, southern dealer and A computer company representative sales, tidy up the current conditions and problems that closed path operates, inquire into more organization design according to current market condition and organization construction.

Technological innovation is a key process for the modern enterprise to gain competitiveness. Technological innovation let United States companies become the leader of the world, and the well developed capital market is the source to promote technological innovation. Science and Technology is the goal of Japan. Japan learns from technology and innovation to become a technological power. But the financial structure is different from United States and Japan. The difference for supporting technological innovation is the subject of this research. The study found that stock market is the most important funding outside the banking system. The mature stock markets in the United States gave birth to the successful technological innovation of the modern enterprise. Whether it the patent application and the export of new products and technologies are the highest in the world. The stock market of Japan is not develop enough, it can¡¦t give enough support to technological innovation. But the tight relation between the companies and banks make up for the immaturity of the stock market. And the relation promotes the enterprises to obtain the outstanding achievements in technological innovation. Overall, the mature stock markets of United States support the development of technological innovation, and achieve a higher degree of technological innovation.

CROSS-BORDER BANK ACQUISITIONS AND COMPANY PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF EMERGING MARKETS Demir, Mert MBA, Department of Business Administration Supervisor : Assist. Prof. Dr. Seza DaniSoglu May 2008, 103 pages In recent years, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have spurred in the global economy. With the breaking down of barriers around national economies, those economies that used to be centrally-planned and closed in the past have emerged as economies that offer invaluable investment and risk diversification opportunities that investors seek. As a natural result of this change, these economies become major targets for foreign investors. This thesis examines the impact of this foreign investment trend specifically for those bank mergers and acquisitions that take place in emerging economies. The impact of these transactions on the acquirer and target company shareholders and firm performance are analyzed and it is found that neither parties&rsquo / shareholders receive a significantly positive benefit in the short-term but there are significant benefits in the long-term. Moreover, while these bank consolidations resulted in improved profitability, efficiency and asset size for the target firms, no significant change is observed in deposit size, market share and capital adequacy of the targets. Similarly, improvement in profitability is evidenced for the acquirers while no major change in leverage risk is observed.

This paper aims to first develop a model that analyzes how investors place orders in an order driven market. In this model, investors have different share evaluations and information is asymmetric. Private information is short-lived, and types of orders include a market order and a limit order. A market with or without bid-ask prices can influence investors¡¦ choices when submitting market orders. Hence, we discuss two kinds of market conditions in the first model. The first condition is a market with bid-ask prices, and the second is a market without bid-ask prices. Secondly, we develop an integrated model to analyze how an informed trader optimally chooses any combination of a market buy, market sell, limit buy and limit sell. In this model the informed trader observes the terminal value of a security. Then, the trader makes a choice of orders to submit under a market with bid-ask prices. As for the first model, there are some results in the first condition. At equilibrium, the optimal price of a limit order placed by an uninformed trader is related to the difference in share valuation and to adverse selection. The uninformed trader will request adverse selection risk premium, and the risk premium is related to the proportion of informed traders in the market and the value of private information. At this moment, informed traders get information benefits by submitting market orders. The information benefits are related to the difference in share valuation and the value of private information. On the other hand, we have found that informed traders will also experience adverse selection problem when placing limit orders and request risk premiums in limit prices. Informed traders¡¦ limit orders will be executed with the market orders of informed and uninformed traders who will be submitting next. The adverse selection risk of informed traders¡¦ limit orders is only related to private information value if uninformed traders don¡¦t place market orders. However, when uninformed traders submit only market orders, the adverse selection risk is related to the ratio of informed traders and private information value. From the first model, our results indicate the behaviors of informed traders who cannot submit market orders under a market with private information are short-lived like those of uninformed traders. However, we would like to know if an informed trader may submit a limit order. In the second model, in order to get information profit, the informed trader submits not only a market order, but also a limit order, even if the market has bid-ask prices and private information is not short-lived again. A combination of market-limit orders is more profitable than only a market order. In addition, limit orders enhance the profitability of market orders by reducing their losses in bad states. Finally, we obtain the result of price improvement for market orders.

This paper uncovers the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates in seven countries by employing stable aggregate currency (SAC) for the period of 1973- 2004. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, time series methods, and directed acyclic graphs are applied to the daily data on stock market indices and exchange rates. The findings based on regression analysis show that exchange rate exposure of stock markets is statistically significant when stock indexes in SAC are used. Using an innovation accounting technique, we confirm that stock markets and exchange rates are correlated. Moreover, in most cases stock markets are more exogenous than foreign currency markets, which explains the relatively high percentage of uncertainty in the foreign currency market. Overall, SAC-based models give relatively more accurate and robust results than those which employ stock indices in local currencies, because it is more accurate to convert both variables into the same denominator.

The common theme throughout the thesis is to explore the possibility of using a single framework, namely the systems theory framework, in modeling a few stylized features of a financial market. A systems theoretic model is developed, in this thesis in Chapter 3, for confidence bias of an individual. The effect of this bias on his investment decision is brought out explicitly. The phenomenon of excessive trading, arising due to overconfidence and optimism, has been explained. The concept of virtual capital, incorporating the ideas from prospect theory, is introduced. We have proposed a dynamical system framework to model limits to arbitrage and the herding behavior in financial markets in Chapter 4. The market evolves due to the participation of traders. It is instructive to look at the market as a system evolving from a set of initial conditions during every time interval. In the proposed model, herding is defined as a specific relation between the system responses. The proposed herding measure quantifies how far the individual is from clustering with others. It is also shown how this interpretation helps us to understand the effects of herding. There exists a risk when the market price variation, due to herding, is thought of as entirely due to the portfolio fundamentals. The generic dynamical system model that captures some aspects of the limits of arbitrage is also proposed wherein fundamental risk, noise trader risk, implementation risk, and model risk can be incorporated. The proposed model offers a single framework to study the Marginally Efficient Market and Synchronization Risk models. In Chapter 5, we have proposed a switching dynamical system with minority game rules incorporated within the framework. We have explored the possibility of developing a market model, in Chapter 6, in the same framework that has been used to develop models for arbitrage and herding. We have explored, in this thesis, the possibility of using a single framework to model stylized features of stock market. It will be a long way before a single model can capture all complex characteristic features of a stock market. We have attempted, in this thesis, to capture a few stylized features in a single framework, if not in a single model. Different models proposed for individual confidence bias, limits to arbitrage, herding, and switching model for incorporating minority games are all set up in system dynamics framework. This leads to a stage where one can explore incorporating other features, not addressed in this thesis, in system dynamics framework. If each feature is captured using a different framework like confidence bias as stochastic system, herding as pattern cluster, limits to arbitrage as rule-based agents, etc., it would be difficult to integrate them into a single framework. But, in the present work, we have captured the chosen stylized features using system dynamics framework though individual models differ from each other substantially. The challenges are many in creating a single framework. The vision of such framework may involve different components such as modeling decision making, considering risk profiles, devising investment strategies, etc. Stylized features would come as emergent properties of complex interactions among the components of the system. Emergence refers to the way in which multiplicity of simple interactions lead to complex behavior. Emergence of such features may include different time scales of causal relationships among components. System may have thresholds, determined by diversity of traders and nature of interactions, which is vital for features to become emergent. This can be seen in practice. Stock market regulates the relative prices of companies across the world. There is no single central agency to control the workings of the market. Traders have knowledge of only few companies within their portfolio, and to follow transaction rules. Trends and patterns are still emerging which are studied by technical analysts. Emergent properties are mostly signature of self-organizing complex system. Self-organization in complex system relies on four properties which are fundamental in system dynamics framework: positive feedback, negative feedback, multiple interactions, and balance among strategies. A complex adaptive stock market system which is self-organizing and exhibit stylized features as emergent property is a distant goal of system theorists around the world. The challenge does not end there. We have attempted to model and study the stylized features of a stock market in systems theory framework. The focus of our approach is to use the dynamical system modeling to study the features. We have not considered the investment aspects in a financial market. The investment models are very important in real life for individuals and policy-makers. Future extension of the ideas explored in this thesis could be along the lines of creating investment models for individuals and policy-makers. Creating such models using complex adaptive stock market system goes a long way in understanding a phenomenon that had started by Dutch East India Company issuing shares on Amsterdam Stock Exchange way back in 1602.

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5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Garamond; panose-1:2 2 4 4 3 3 1 1 8 3; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} span.style10grey {mso-style-name:style10grey; mso-style-unhide:no;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;} @page Section1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <mce:style><! /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} --> <!--[endif]--></p><p>The overall purpose of the paper is to see how crediting institutions assess risks in emerging market countries. The paper describes prevalent economic and social conditions for each of the selected emerging market countries (Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, India, Russia and Ukraine) as examples of recent attractive investment locations in quest of higher returns.  Second, recognizing the importance of ratings for risk management in credit institutions, the authors show what determines country ratings made by main rating agencies by running a linear regression on several macroeconomic indicators and the country ratings. It is also explained what the most widely-used ratings mean and described the correlation between the ratings as well as between the macroeconomic indicators and the ratings. The authors also describe the characteristic approach of a Scandinavian bank towards dealing with risk factors in emerging market countries. Concluding comments: risks happen to be inbound in the bank interest rates; there is no common pattern for banks to apply to all the emerging market countries and each market should be analyzed separately. Nordic banks have a relatively safe and careful strategy concerning lending in the emerging markets.</p><p> </p>

<p>I denna uppsats diskuteras sambandet mellan risk, marknadseffektivitet och volatilitet. En studie görs för att se om volatiliteten (kursrörligheten) har ökat i enskilda aktier under tidsperioden 1988-1999. Vidare behandlas vilka faktorer som kan ge upphov till volatilitetsförändringar, vilka konsekvenser en förändrad volatilitet får för olika typer av investerare samt om utvecklingen är förenlig med EMH (den effektiva marknadshypotesen).Studier av volatilitet är intressanta p g a den risk som uppstår för olika marknadsaktörer vid en ökad volatilitet. Uppstår felvärderingar på aktiemarknaden finns även risk för att kapital fördelas på ett sätt som inte är optimalt. I stora drag kan man definiera begreppet volatilitet som ett mått på hur stor osäkerheten är inför den framtida kursutvecklingen för en aktie. Volatilitet är att betrakta som kortsiktiga rörelser i finansiella priser under loppet av en dag eller från en dag till en annan, men begreppet används också</p> / <p>In this paper the relation between risk, market efficiency and volatility is being discussed. A study has been made to see if there has been any change in the volatility for individual stocks during the time period 1988-1999. Further, the factors that contribute to changes in the volatility have been examined and also which the consequences are for various types of investors and whether the developement is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. The study of volatility is interesting because of the risk that an increased volatility entails for the investors. When mispricing occurs in the stockmarket there is also a risk for a non-optimal allocation of capital. Roughly speaking the definition of volatility is how large the uncertainty is about the future return from an individual stock. Volatility is considered to be short time period movements in financial prices within a day or from one day to another but is also used as a mesaure to describe price</p>