Smallholder farmers often have great entrepreneurial qualities that build on generations of experience. However, many farm management practices are poorly adapted to current climate change conditions. In order for farmers to understand the risks they are undertaking by following certain farming practices and to adapt accordingly, a decision support tool is being developed by researchers at TU Delft. The tool runs a socio-hydrological model, created in Python, in the back-end and provides farmer specific investment and profit data for different crops in the front-end. The aim of this study is to develop a risk assessment process that integrates hydro-climatic variability in the decision support tool, and to identify ways of communicating risk to smallholder farmers in Maharashtra, India. Two sources of variability were characterised based on a literature review of Indian farmers’ own risk perceptions; the untimely onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the frequency of dry spells. A sensitivity analysis was then carried out to investigate their respective effects on the farmers’ crop yields. The method proposed to evaluate these risks used a single variable, precipitation data, and a two-dimensional risk matrix to compound the two risk factors, over a time span of 14 years (2003-2016). However, the results indicate that it might be more beneficial to define dry spells in terms of crop water stress, instead of a precipitation threshold. This study also proposed a method for translating a cumulative distribution curve into a risk representation that is adapted for low-literacy users by combining numbers and text with graphics, color and voice descriptions. Ultimately, however, the usability of the tool cannot be determined solely through literature, but must involve the end-users in its design. / Småskaliga jordbrukare är goda entreprenörer som samlat på sig kunskaper och erfarenheter över flera generationer. Däremot är vissa metoder som jordbrukarna använder sig av idag för att förvalta sitt jordbruk inte anpassade till nutida klimatförändringar. För att jordbrukarna ska förstå riskerna som de åtar sig vid valet av dessa metoder försöker forskare vid TU Delft nu ta fram ett verktyg för att underlätta jordbrukares förmåga att ta självständiga men välgrundade beslut om sitt jordbruk. Verktyget är baserat på en socio-hydrologisk modell som är framtagen i Python och som förser specifika investerings- och inkomstdata för enskilda jordbrukare. Syftet med detta kandidatarbete är att bidra till verktyget genom att undersöka de hydroklimatiska risker som uppstår till följd av föränderliga och osäkra klimatologiska förhållanden för jordbrukare i delstaten Maharashtra, Indien. Två riskfaktorer karakteriserades baserat på en litteraturstudie om indiska jordbrukares riskuppfattningar: avvikelser i starten på den indiska sommarmonsunen och antal torrperioder under monsunsäsongen. Dessutom utfördes en känslighetsanalys för att undersöka om och hur den existerande modellens utdata av skörd påverkades av de valda riskfaktorerna. Monsunstarten och torrperioderna togs fram genom metoder som enbart använde historiska nederbördsdata över tidsperioden 2003-2016 och kombinerades sedan med hjälp av en tvådimensionell riskmatris. Resultaten visade att det fanns anledning att ifrågasätta hur torrperioderna definierades och att det kan vara mer fördelaktigt att undersöka vattenbrist för grödan, snarare än att enbart förlita sig på nederbördsdata. Vidare föreslog denna studie en metod för att översätta en kumulativ fördelningsfunktion till en grafisk riskframställning som är anpassad till användare med låg läskunnighet genom att kombinera siffror med text, grafik, färg och ljudförklaringar. I slutändan kan dock inte användbarheten av verktyget enbart avgöras utifrån litteratur, utan måste även inkludera återkoppling från slutanvändarna.

No description available.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(A) 課題番号:14204044 研究代表者:安成哲三 研究期間:2002－2004年度

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.

The thesis presents observations on the CO2 mixing ratio and the carbon isotopic ratio (13C/12C i.e. δ13) of atmospheric CO2 from the Indian region, for the period 2008 - 2011. An experimental system was established at the Centre for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. The experimental protocol involves collection of air samples, extraction of CO2 from the air samples collected, and finally the measurement of the CO2 mixing ratio and isotopic ratios of the extracted CO2 using pressure gauge readings and the dual inlet peripheral of the isotope ratio mass spectrometer, IRMS MAT 253. The isotopic ratios measured are scaled to VPDB and corrected for their N2O contribution. The experimental set up is calibrated with primary carbonate standards (NBS19) and an air CO2 reference mixture. The analytical precision (reproducibility of paired samples) obtained for the atmospheric CO2 measurement is ±7 µ mol.mol-1, ±0.05‰ and ±0.17‰ for the mixing ratio, δ 13C and δ 18Oof atmospheric CO2 respectively. The present study lays emphasis on the CO2 mixing ratio and the δ 13C of atmospheric CO2. There are very few atmospheric CO2 monitoring stations in India. There exists only one long-term monitoring station, Cabo de Rama, on the west coast of India. Of late, a few new stations for measuring atmospheric trace gases have been in operation, with the major focus being on remote locations. Urban stations in India have never been monitored before for both the mixing ratio and the δ13C of atmospheric CO2 together. Monitoring urban stations in India is crucial today as they have become prime emitters of CO2 due to industrial activity. The emission from the sources varies seasonally and is influenced by factors like the Indian monsoon. The Indian subcontinent is surrounded by the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal which act differentially in terms of CO2 uptake or release. There is also a differential transport of CO2 to and from the open ocean. Thus, understanding the spatial pattern of CO2 in the marine region close to the Indian subcontinent is essential to understand the oceanic uptake/release of CO2. As part of this thesis, an urban area was monitored during 2008 - 2011 and the marine region was observed during the southwest monsoon of 2009. The temporal variation of the CO2 mixing ratio and δ13C of atmospheric CO2 was observed over an urban station, Bangalore (12° 58′ N, 77° 38′ E, masl= 920 m), India. Since Bangalore is one of the developing urban cities in India, it is interesting to monitor Bangalore air to understand the impact of anthropogenic emissions on atmospheric CO2 variability. The region has four distinct seasons, dry summer (March – May), southwest monsoon (June – September), post monsoon (October – November) and winter (December – February). Thus, it is also an ideal location to identify the effect of different seasons on the contribution of CO2 from various sources. Air samples were collected from the Indian Institute of Science campus, Bangalore, during 2008 - 2011. Both the diurnal and seasonal variations of the mixing ratio and δ13C of CO2 were observed in Bangalore. On the diurnal scale, a higher mixing ratio with lighter carbon isotopes (negative value) of δ13C of CO2 was recorded in the air-CO2 analyzed during the early morning compared to the late afternoon samples. The observations suggest that coal combustion, biomass burning and car exhausts are possible sources for CO2 identified based on the Keeling plot method. The nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is found to influence the buildup of CO2 concentration in the early morning. The presence of the NBL in the early morning prevents the mixing of locally produced air with the CO2 from the free atmosphere above. Thus, the free air contribution of CO2 is reduced during the early morning rather than in the afternoon. The effect of seasonal variability in the height of the NBL on the air CO2 mixing ratio and the 13C of atmospheric CO2 were documented in the present study. On a seasonal scale, the free air contribution of CO2 was found to be higher during the southwest monsoon and winter compared to the dry hot summer and post monsoon period. On a seasonal time scale, a sinusoidal pattern in both the mixing ratio and δ13C has been recorded in the observations. While compared with nearby CO2 monitoring stations like the coastal station, Cabo de Rama, and the Open Ocean station, Seychelles, maintained by CSIRO Australia and NOAA-CMDL respectively, Bangalore recorded higher amplitudes of seasonal variation. Seasonal scale variations have revealed an additional source i.e. emission from the cement industry along with other sources identified from diurnal variations. The emission of CO2 from these different sources is not constant; rather it was found to vary with different seasons. The enhanced biomass burning during the dry season drives the δ13C of atmospheric CO2 towards more negative values, while during the southwest monsoon; the increased biosphere cover pushes the δ13C value of atmospheric CO2 towards positive values. The effect of La Nina in 2011 is also prominent in the observation. The study also intends to identify the spatial variability of both the mixing ratio and δ 13C air-CO2 close to the urban station, Bangalore based on the simultaneous sampling of air from three locations, Bangalore and two coastal stations, Mangalore and Chennai, which are equidistant from Bangalore. Samples were collected during the southwest monsoon and winter of 2010 - 2011. The observations documented a similar source of CO2 for all the three stations irrespective of the season. The factor responsible for the variability in the mixing ratio and the δ 13C of air CO2 among these stations is the differential transport of air from the marine region and its mixing with locally produced air. To identify the variability of atmospheric CO2 over the marine region, the atmosphere over the Bay of Bengal was monitored during the southwest monsoon of 2009 as part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) Cruise expedition. The ocean surface water was also monitored simultaneously for the δ18O of water and the δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon measurement. The combined observations of both air and water have shown the transport of continental air to the marine region and its uptake by the ocean during the period. The variability of atmospheric-CO2 is also observed during special events like the solar eclipse. During the annular solar eclipse of 15th January, 2010 an unusually depleted source value was identified for Bangalore air. The role of the boundary layer and a change in photosynthesis were identified as possible factors affecting air CO2 composition. In conclusion, the thesis has provided the first observations on air CO2 variability from an urban station in India. The observations have identified the possible sources of CO2 and have demonstrated the role of climatic phenomena like the Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Indian Monsoon, and La Nina in controlling the behaviour of sources and sinks and thus affecting the air CO2 variability over land and ocean. The seasonal scale variation based on day-to-day variability in the afternoon samples has revealed the important contribution of emissions from the cement industry whose contribution was absent in the diurnal variability. Thus, it is evident from this study that the timing of air sampling is crucial while identifying the sources. The per capita emission of individual urban stations in India is different; thus, it is essential to monitor more urban stations to identify sources and their different contributions. In future, the simultaneous monitoring of both continental and marine air over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal will enable us to understand the long range transport of atmospheric CO2. The long term monitoring of CO2 from the Indian region can give us a better perspective on the effect of the Indian monsoon on air CO2 variability and vice versa.

River discharge can affect ocean surface temperature by altering stratification within the oceanic mixed layer. A hitherto unexplored aspect of present climate is the feedback of river runoff onto climate. This thesis presents an investigation of the impact of global river runoff on oceans and climate using a fully coupled global climate model, Community Climate System Model (CCSM). Two model simulations for a period of 100 years have been carried out: 1) a reference run (CTRL) that incorporates all the features of a global coupled model with river runoff into the ocean embedded in it, and 2) a sensitivity run (NoRiv) in which the global river runoff into the ocean is blocked. Comparison of model climate devoid of fluvial discharge with the reference run reveals the significance of fluvial discharge in the present climate. By the end of 50 years of NoRiv experiment, salinity growth slows down and reaches a quasi-stable state. Regions close to river mouths exhibited maximum salinity rise that can potentially alter local density and stratification. On an average, denser and saltier waters in the NoRiv run annihilate barrier layer and form a deeper mixed layer, compared to CTRL run. Density gradient created by the modulation in salinity set forth anomalous currents and circulation across coastlines that carries coastal anomalies to open ocean, preventing local salinity buildup. Arctic Ocean, Bay of Bengal, northern high latitude Pacific and the Atlantic are the most affected regions in terms of changes in salinity and temperature. Model simulations demonstrate that major transformation in Arctic freshwater budget can have potential impact on northern Pacific and Atlantic climate. In the absence of runoff, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rise by about ~ 0.5oC, with major contribution from northern higher latitude oceans. In the Pacific, high latitude warming is related to deepening of mixed layer as well as the northward transport of low latitude warmer waters. Substantial cooling in the central equatorial Pacific (~1oC during winter) can alter large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reinforcement of Pacific and Atlantic western boundary currents aids the transport of warm saline water from low latitudes to higher latitudes. The results suggest that the river runoff can have potential impact on oceanic climate. Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to global continental runoff is also examined. In the NoRiv run, average summer monsoon rainfall over India increased by ~ 0.55 mm day−1. Consistent with the increase in annual average Indian monsoon rainfall, all other northern hemispheric monsoon systems showed an increase, while southern hemispheric monsoons weakened. Associated with enhanced monsoon, the periodicity of ENSO in the NoRiv run changes as a result of cooling tendency in the equatorial Pacific, a sign of consistent La Niña. Equatorial Pacific cooling, in spite of a global ocean warming trend, is found to be primarily because of the enhanced local easterly winds and resultant strong equatorial upwelling. Cold anomaly due to upwelling spread entire equatorial Pacific basin within a span of 50 years. The La Niña situation in the Pacific favored increased monsoon rainfall over Indian subcontinent. Another surprising result of this study is the strengthening of ENSO-monsoon relationship in the NoRiv run. This suggests that the river discharge can be considered as a dampening force in the ENSO-monsoon relationship. Northern hemisphere showed a clear warming in the NoRiv simulation compared to CTRL, the result of which is an enhanced trans-hemispheric gradient. Cross-equatorial winds triggered by this gradient blow from southern hemisphere and shift the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward, increasing the precipitation in the northern hemisphere. The cooling in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the warming in the west, reflected in the increase in number of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events (9 positive and 5 negative IOD events in the last 50 years), also favored summer-time rainfall over India.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (31 ° 49'N, 70 ° 55'E bis 35 ° 50'N, 71 ° 47'E) liegt im Nordwesten Pakistans im Süden Asiens. Das Hindukusch-Gebirge in Afghanistan liegt im Westen, dem indischen Himalaya im Nordosten und die Karakorum Berge südlich vom tibetischen Hochland auf der Nordseite. Diese Arbeit besteht überwiegend aus drei separaten Studien entlang eines 200 km langen Transekts mit einem Höhengradienten ausgehend von den Sedimentbecken im Peshawar Tal (275 m ü.M.) bis hinauf zu den Malam Jabba Hills im Swat-Tal (2600 m ü.M.). Die erste Studie, die auf einer Datengrundlage von 160 Poaceae Arten beruht, zeigt Trends, dass polyploide C3- und C4-Poaceae-Arten größere Pollenkkörner als die jeweiligen diploiden Arten haben. In diesem Datensatz haben alle C4-Arten größere Pollenkörner als die C3-Arten. Ob Grassländer von C3 oder C4 Arten dominiert werden kann in verschiedenen Regionen und Lebensräumen durch die Untersuchung der Muster des Trends von zu- oder abnehmenden Pollenkorngrößen ermittelt werden. In unserem Datensatz ist Polyploidie bei C4-Gräsern häufiger als bei den C3 Arten. Die verwendete Methode kann auf Poaceae-Pollenkörner in Umweltarchiven angewendet werden, um das Klima der Vergangenheit zu rekonstruieren und die Dynamik der früheren Graslandökosysteme zu bewerten. Dieser Ansatz wird nicht nur bei laufenden paläoökologischen Studien helfen aufzuklären, wie die Änderungen der Vegetations-zusammensetzung und die Veränderungen in Biomen vergangener Graslandökosysteme zu entschlüsseln sind, sondern auch nützliche Erkenntnisse für die Vorhersage zukünftiger Entwicklungen ermöglichen. Die zweite Studie befasst sich mit modernen Pollenspektren aus Oberflächenproben und ihre Beziehung zu der umgebenden Vegetation, die nützliche Daten für die Interpretation von holozänen Pollenprofilen bietet. Dabei konnten entlang eines 200 km langen Höhengradienten vier verschiedene Höhenstufen unterschieden werden, wo die dominierenden Pflanzenfamilien, Poaceae, Asteraceae, Cyperaceae, Verbenaceae, Acanthaceae und Euphorbiaceae eine signifikante Korrelation mit dem gefunden Pollenniederschlag hatten, während sich bei anderen Familien, den Boraginaceae, Saxifragaceae, Apiaceae, Balsaminaceae und Rubiaceae große Unterschiede zu der zugehörigen Vegetationszusammensetzung ergaben. Für die Kalibrierung und Interpretation fossiler Pollendaten sollte also immer auch die aktuellen Beziehungen von Pollenniederschlag und Vegetationsdaten zumindest auf der Familienebene berücksichtigt werden. Die dritte Studie befasst sich mit einem Pollenprofil aus der Kabal Swat-Region, welches eine detaillierte Geschichte der Vegetation und des Klimas des Hindukuschs der letzten 3300 Jahre, also dem späten Holozäns enthält. Von 3300 bis 2400 cal BP, war eine subtropische semiaride krautige Vegetation hauptsächlich durch Cyperaceae- und Poaceae-Arten vertreten. Sie wurde ersetzt von gemischten Nadelwäldern mit Taxus, Pinus, sowie Juglans, Poaceae und Cyperaceae während der Zeit von 2400 bis 900 cal BP, was auf eine vergleichsweise moderate Klimaschwankung während des späten Holozäns weist. Der Rückgang der Poaceae von 2400 bis1500 cal BP und eine erneute Zunahme von 1500 bis 1200 cal BP Jahre zeigen, dass das Kabal Swat nass-kühlere und trocken-wärmere Phasen durchmachte. Nadelbäume in den gemischten Nadelwäldern treten heute bei größeren Höhe im alpinen Bereich auf. Weitere hochauflösende holozäne Pollenprofile des Hindukusch sind notwendig, um einen ausführlicheren Vergleich zu anderen süd- und zentralasiatischen Paläo-Archiven zu ermöglichen, die auch ein detaillierteres und anwendbares Wissen für Management und Naturschutzfragen ergeben.