La variabilité du système climatique influence la productivité et la distribution des espèces marines sur toutes les échelles de temps, de la variabilité saisonnière et inter-annuelle aux cycles glaciaires-interglaciaires. Mais ces liens entre climat et écosystèmes marins sont encore largement méconnus, de telle sorte que les prévisions des changements à venir sont difficiles. De plus, parce que les indicateurs paléoclimatiques issus des archives marines sont souvent liés au fonctionnement de l’écosystème, cette méconnaissance limite la fiabilité de la reconstruction de la variabilité climatique passée.Ce travail de thèse vise à améliorer notre connaissance de ces liens entre climat et écosystèmes marins : nous nous sommes intéressés aux changements de productivité marine au cours du dernier cycle glaciaire-interglaciaire, et nous nous sommes aussi penchés sur la réponse de l’écosystème, incluant l'ensemble des niveaux de la chaine trophique, à la variabilité inter-annuelle à décennale en climat pré-industriel. Ce travail est basé sur l’utilisation d’un modèle climatique (IPSL-CM), d’un modèle de biogéochimie marine (PISCES) et d’un modèle de niveaux trophiques supérieurs (APECOSM).Dans un premier temps, nous montrons que le lien entre l’intensité de la mousson indienne et la productivité primaire marine, en été boréal dans la mer d’Arabie, n’est pas direct. En effet, il apparait indispensable pour comprendre les changements de productivité de considérer, en plus de l'intensité de la mousson, la structure de la mousson. En particulier, la position du Jet de Findlater par rapport à la côte de la péninsule arabique est un paramètre important puisqu'elle conditionne la dynamique d'Ekman dans la région.Dans un second temps, nous avons étudié les variations de la productivité marine au large de l'embouchure du fleuve Congo et leurs liens avec le fleuve et les changements de dynamique atmosphérique africaine. Ce travail a mis en évidence que la relation entre l'intensité de la mousson et l'intensité des alizés, souvent utilisée dans les reconstructions climatiques, n'est pas toujours vérifiée. Selon le climat étudié, l'importance des effets thermiques ou dynamiques sur les changements de précipitations et de vents simulés est différente.Dans un troisième temps, nous avons étudié l'effet de la variabilité inter-annuelle sur les changements de productivité passés et sur le signal climatique potentiellement enregistré par des indicateurs climatiques biologiques.Enfin, la dernière partie de cette thèse se focalise sur la réponse des organismes marins des haut-niveaux trophiques à la variabilité climatique à différentes fréquences. Ce travail a révélé que les organismes marins répondent de façons différentes aux variations environnementales en fonction de leur taille et de leur habitat. / Climate variability influences marine primary productivity and marine species distribution over all timescales, from seasonal to interannual variability and glacial-interglacial cycles. The links between climate and marine ecosystems are still sparsely known so that the predictions of futur changes are difficult. Moreover, because paleoclimate recorders extracted from marine archives are often linked to the functionning of the ecosystem, this lack of knowledge limits our ability to reconstruct past climate variability.This thesis work aims at improving our knowledge of these links between climate and marine ecosystems : we have looked into marine productivity changes during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, but we also examined the "end-to-end" ecosystem response to inter-annual to decadal variability in a pre-industrial climate. This work uses a climate model (IPSL-CM), a bio-geochemical model (PISCES) and a model of high trophic levels (APECOSM).First, we show that the link between Indian summer monsoon intensity and marine primary productivity in the Arabian Sea is indirect. Indeed, it appears necessary to consider the monsoon pattern, such as the Findlater Jet position, which drives the Ekman dynamics in the region, as well as its intensity to understand the productivity changes.Second, we study the marine productivity changes off the Congo river mouth and their links with the river runoff and the African atmospheric dynamics. This work shows that the relationship between monsoon intensity and trade winds intensity, often used to reconstruct past changes, is not always verified. Depending on the climate, thermal or dynamical effects are more or less prominent drivers of the simulated changes in precipitation and winds. Productivity off the Congo river mouth, which is mainly located in the subsurface, seems more affected by the ocean and atmosphere dynamics than by the river supply in nutrients.Third, we study the inter-annual variability effects over past productivity changes and over the climatic signal potentially recorded in the biological climate proxies.Finally, the last part of the thesis focuses on high trophic levels marine organisms response to climate variability at different frequencies. This study shows that marine organisms response to environmental changes varies with the organism' size and habitat.

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A better understanding of the water and energy cycles at climate scale in the Third Pole Environment is essential for assessing and understanding the causes of changes in the cryosphere and hydrosphere in relation to changes of plateau atmosphere in the Asian monsoon system and for predicting the possible changes in water resources in South and East Asia. This paper reports the following results: (1) A platform of in situ observation stations is briefly described for quantifying the interactions in hydrosphere-pedosphere-atmosphere-cryosphere-biosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. (2) A multiyear in situ L-Band microwave radiometry of land surface processes is used to develop a new microwave radiative transfer modeling system. This new system improves the modeling of brightness temperature in both horizontal and vertical polarization. (3) A multiyear (2001–2018) monthly terrestrial actual evapotranspiration and its spatial distribution on the Tibetan Plateau is generated using the surface energy balance system (SEBS) forced by a combination of meteorological and satellite data. (4) A comparison of four large scale soil moisture products to in situ measurements is presented. (5) The trajectory of water vapor transport in the canyon area of Southeast Tibet in different seasons is analyzed, and (6) the vertical water vapor exchange between the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere in different seasons is presented.

Coastal sand dunes are sediment archives which can be used to reconstruct periods of aridity and humidity, past wind strength and variations in the sediment supply related to sea-level changes. In this manner, the sedimentary record of fossil coastal dunes in Sri Lanka provides evidence for environmental and climatic changes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. As yet, these environmental shifts are poorly resolved because the sedimentary facies and their depositional architecture have not been studied and only very few age constraints are available. Facies analysis of a lithological section at the Point Kurdimalai sea cliff in the Wilpattu National Park (NW Sri Lanka) reveals a striking resemblance to the stratigraphic succession associated with the Teri Sands in southeastern India, which is better dated. The reason is that deposition occurred under the same geological, climatic and geomorphological conditions in the two regions. This special situation allows for litho- and climate stratigraphic correlations across the Gulf of Mannar and links the landscape evolution at Point Kudrimalai to late Quaternary climatic events and sea-level changes. Our results show that the formation of red coastal dunes (Red Beds) in Sri Lanka was a multi-phase process across the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary and hence the differentiation between an Older Group of Plio-Pleistocene age (including the Red Beds) and a Younger Group of Holocene age in the Quaternary stratigraphic chart for Sri Lanka is not justified.

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In the recent scenario of climate change, the natural variability and uncertainty associated with the hydrologic variables is of great concern to the community. This thesis opens up a new area of multi-disciplinary research. It is a promising field of research in hydrology and water resources that uses the information from the field of atmospheric science. A new way to identify and capture the variability and uncertainty associated with the hydrologic variables is established through this thesis. Assessment of hydroclimatic teleconnection for Indian subcontinent and its use in basin-scale hydrologic time series analysis and forecasting is the broad aim of this PhD thesis. The initial part of the thesis is devoted to investigate and establish the dependence of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on large-scale Oceanic-atmospheric circulation phenomena from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the well established coupled Ocean-atmosphere mode of tropical Pacific Ocean whereas Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode is the recently identified coupled Ocean-atmosphere mode of tropical Indian Ocean. Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) is known as the atmospheric component of IOD mode. The potential of ENSO and EQUINOO for predicting ISMR is investigated by Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM). A major advantage of this method is that, it is able to capture the dynamic nature of the cause-effect relationship between large-scale circulation information and hydrologic variables, which is quite expected in the climate change scenario. Another new method, proposed to capture the dependence between the teleconnected hydroclimatic variables is based on the theory of copula, which itself is quite new to the field of hydrology. The dependence of ISMR on ENSO and EQUINOO is captured and investigated for its potential use to predict the monthly variation of ISMR using the proposed method. The association of monthly variation of ISMR with the combined information of ENSO and EQUINOO, denoted by monthly composite index (MCI), is also investigated and established. The spatial variability of such association is also investigated. It is observed that MCI is significantly associated with monthly rainfall variation all over India, except over North-East (NE) India, where it is poor. Having established the hydroclimatic teleconnection at a comparatively larger scale, the hydroclimatic teleconnection for basin-scale hydrologic variables is then investigated and established. The association of large-scale atmospheric circulation with inflow during monsoon season into Hirakud reservoir, located in the state of Orissa in India, has been investigated. The strong predictive potential of the composite index of ENSO and EQUINOO is established for extreme inflow conditions. So the methodology of inflow prediction using the information of hydroclimatic teleconnection would be very suitable even for ungauged or poorly gauged watersheds as this approach does not use any information about the rainfall in the catchment. Recognizing the basin-scale hydroclimatic association with both ENSO and EQUINOO at seasonal scale, the information of hydroclimatic teleconnection is used for streamflow forecasting for the Mahanadi River basin in the state of Orissa, India, both at seasonal and monthly scale. It is established that the basin-scale streamflow is influenced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena. Information of streamflow from previous month(s) alone, as used in most of the traditional modeling approaches, is shown to be inadequate. It is successfully established that incorporation of large-scale atmospheric circulation information significantly improves the performance of prediction at monthly scale. Again, the prevailing conditions/characteristics of watershed are also important. Thus, consideration of both the information of previous streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulations are important for basin-scale streamflow prediction at monthly time-scale. Adopting the developed approach of using the information of hydroclimatic teleconnection, hydrologic variables can be predicted with better accuracy which will be a very useful input for better management of water resources.

L’océan Indien est le lieu de processus atmosphériques et océaniques majeurs dont les répercussions en terme climatique peuvent être de grandes importances. Cette thèse se propose de documenter les forçages, les variabilités, les impacts et les interactions de la mousson Indo-asiatique et du courant des Aiguilles à l’échelle orbitale (incluant les conditions glaciaires-interglaciaires) au cours de la période Quaternaire.Si le maximum d’insolation (minimum de précession et maximum d’obliquité) initie les fortes moussons Indo-asiatiques, des forçages internes au système climatique jouent également un rôle majeur pour expliquer leur dynamique (fort vents et précipitations), en particulier le changement de volume de glace de l’hémisphère Nord et l’export de chaleur latente de l’océan Indien Sud. La prédominance de ces forçages internes est propre à la mousson Indo-asiatique et la distingue des moussons boréales Africaines. Ceci indique que le concept de mousson globale n’est pas valable à l’échelle orbitale.Concernant l’hémisphère Sud, les variations de température de surface du courant des Aiguilles exercent un contrôle important sur le climat Sud Africain (la végétation et les précipitations). Ce courant permet également le transfert plus ou moins important de chaleur et de sel vers l’océan Atlantique Sud par l’intermédiaire de la migration de la convergence subtropicale et des vents d’ouest associés. Ce mécanisme, contrôlé fortement par la dynamique des hautes latitudes Sud, affecte la circulation thermo-haline globale et constitue un acteur important des transitions glaciaires-interglaciaires et des changements de mode de variabilité climatique au cours du Quaternaire (Transition Mid-Pleistocène et évènement du Mid-Brunhes). Les changements induits dans le climat de l’Hémisphère Nord, et notamment le volume de glace, pourraient ensuite se répercuter sur la dynamique de la mousson. En revanche, l’effet des moussons sur le courant des Aiguilles parait mineur. Toutefois, les interactions entre la mousson Indo-asiatique, l’ENSO et les éventuels IOD (dipôles climatiques de l’océan Indien) pourraient affecter la dynamique du courant. / The Indian Ocean is the place of major atmospheric and oceanic processes with large potential repercussions on the global climatic system. This thesis investigates forcing, variations, impacts and interactions of the Indo-Asian monsoon and of the Agulhas current at the orbital scale (including glacial-interglacial conditions) over the Quaternary period.Insolation maximum (precession minimum and obliquity maximum) initiates strong Indo-Asian monsoons, but processes internal to the climate system, in particular Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume changes and the latent heat export of the south Indian Ocean, play a major role to explain their dynamics (strongest winds and precipitation). The predominance of these internal forcings is a specificity of the Indo-Asian monsoon and distinguishes it from African boreal monsoons. This indicates that the concept of a global monsoon at the orbital scale is a misnomer.Concerning the Southern hemisphere, sea surface temperature variations of the Agulhas current exert an important control upon the South African climate (vegetation and precipitation). This current also participates to the transfer of heat and salt towards the South Atlantic Ocean whose intensity is mainly related to the migration of the subtropical convergence and associated westerlies winds. This mechanism, strongly controlled by high southern latitudes dynamics, affects the global overturning circulation and plays an important role for glacial-interglacial transitions and changes in modes of climate variability during the Quaternary (Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes event). Induced Northern hemisphere climate changes, in particular ice volume, could in turn influence monsoon dynamics. On the other hand, the effect of monsoons on the Agulhas current seems to be of minor importance. However, interactions between the Indo-Asian monsoon, ENSO and the possible IOD (Indian Ocean climatic Dipole) could affect the dynamic of the current.

Sur les effets du changement climatique aux échelles globale et régionale. Il montre en particulierqu’aucun consensus ne peut être trouvé pour ce qui concerne l’évolution future de lapluviométrie — et de la dynamique atmosphérique associée — en région de mousson africaine.Ce mémoire revisite cette question à la lumière des nouvelles données disponibles et selon uneapproche évitant toute surreprésentation du nombre de simulations disponibles pour un type demodèle donné, tout en prenant en compte la diversité des modèles ainsi que leur évolution dansle temps : sorties de vingt modèles de circulation générale (MCGs) ayant participé aux exercicesCMIP3 (douze MCGs) et CMIP5 (huit MCGs) sous les scénarios d’émissions A1B et rcp4.5,respectivement. Les sorties sont analysées principalement sur deux fenêtres de quarante ans —périodes actuelle (1960-1999) et future (2031-2070) — et les résultats discutés au regard de leurvraisemblance selon une approche permettant à la fois de quantifier les différences futur moinsactuel, de mesurer les significativités et les robustesses statistiques et d’associer une probabilitémesurant le consensus des modèles en fonction des échelles et des variables considérées.Les analyses menées sur CMIP3 et CMIP5 montrent qu’un consensus sur l’effet du changementclimatique en Afrique de l’Ouest peut être obtenu si l’on ne fait pas de l’ensemble de labande sahélienne une entité homogène et qu’on raisonne à des échelles spatiales inférieures. Lesrésultats révèlent une évolution contrastée entre le centre et l’ouest du Sahel avec, pour le futur(i) une hausse des précipitations au centre s’expliquant surtout par une plus grande convergencedes flux dans les basses couches, ainsi qu’une pénétration plus au nord de la mousson ;(ii) une baisse des précipitations à l’ouest s’expliquant par le renforcement de la circulation detype Walker, du Jet d’Est Africain (JEA) et de la subsidence dans les couches moyennes. Parailleurs, on peut s’attendre à une modification du cycle annuel moyen avec un retrait retardé dela mousson. Ce retard est notamment lié aux apports supplémentaires d’humidité depuis l’Atlantique,dus au renforcement des contrastes thermiques et d’humidité entre océan et continent,mais aussi et surtout aux apports tardifs d’humidité depuis la Méditerranée et au renforcementdes flux de nord en septembre et octobre en direction du Sahel / The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work onthe effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensuscan be found with regard to the future of rainfall — and atmospheric dynamics- associatedwith region — African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue in the light of new dataand using an approach avoiding over-representation of the number of simulations available forone type of model and taking into account the diversity of models and their evolution in time :twenty general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the exercises CMIP3 (twelve GCMs)and CMIP5 (eight GCMs) under the A1B emissions scenario and rcp4.5, respectively. Outputsare analyzed on two 40-year periods, — ‘Present’ (1960-1999) and ‘Future’ (2031-2070) — anddiscussed in terms of likelihood, through an approach allowing us to both quantify differences‘future’ minus ‘present’, measure robustness and statistical significances and associate a probabilitymeasuring the model consensus as a function of scales and variables.Analyzes conducted on CMIP3 and CMIP5 show that consensus on the effect of climatechange in West Africa can be achieved if we do not consider the Sahel as a whole and homogeneousentity but at lower scales. The results show contrasted responses over the centraland western Sahel, with for the future, (i) an increase in precipitation in the central regionexplained primarily by a greater convergence of flow in the lower layers and a most northerlymonsoon penetration over the continent, (ii) a rainfall decrease in the western Sahel explainedby increased Walker-type circulation, African easterly jet and mid-level subsidence. Moreover,we can expect a change in the mean annual cycle of the monsoon season with a delayed withdrawallinked to additional inputs of moisture from the Atlantic due to increasing thermal andmoisture contrasts between ocean and continent but also to a stronger contribution of moisturefluxes in September and October from the Mediterranean into the Sahel

Cette thèse vise à restituer l'histoire de la mousson africaine au cours du Quaternaire, et à en déterminer ses influences sur les variations des apports sédimentaires du Nil et des déserts d’Afrique du nord. Deux sites de la Méditerranée orientale ont alors été étudiés (la carotte MD90-964 dans la partie orientale du bassin Levantin et le Site ODP 964 dans la Mer ionienne). Sur la base des analyses de la minéralogie des argiles, de la granulomètrie, de la teneur en carbonate et Corg couplées à des analyses semi-quantitatives d’éléments majeurs et traces à très haute résolution temporelle par XRF Core Scanner, nous avons restitué l’histoire des apports sédimentaires du Nil, des changements de précipitation en l’Afrique du Nord, et des variations des paleo-crues du Nil au cours des 1,75 derniers millions d'années. Le premier enregistrement de Delta(18)O du foraminifère planctonique G. ruber (carotte MD90-964) de l’ensemble du Quaternaire a été obtenu à très haute résolution temporelle pour la Méditerranée orientale. Le site ODP 964 a permis de restituer la dynamique des apports de poussière saharienne à la mer ionienne durant les 1,5 derniers millions d'années. Les résultats indiquent que les changements dans les apports de sédiments transportés par le Nil et par les vents depuis les domaines sahariens sont fortement influencés par les variations de la mousson africaine. Les alternances glaciaires/interglaciaires et les variations climatiques de la transition climatique mi-Pléistocène (MPT), dans une moindre mesure, influencent également / This thesis is devoted to reconstruct the Quaternary history of African monsoon and its influences on suspended loads of the Nile River and dust production in Sahara. The materials used in this study come from two sites (MD90-964 in the eastern Levantine Basin and ODP Site 964 in the Ionian Sea) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Based on clay mineralogy, grain sizes, carbonate and Corg contents, and XRF core scanning analyses of Core MD90-964, we have reconstructed history of the Nile suspended discharges, precipitation in North Africa, and Nile paleoflood events during the last 1.75 Ma. On the basis of the planktonic foraminiferal Delta(18)O record of Core MD90-964, we have established for the first time in the eastern Mediterranean Sea a high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal (G. ruber) Delta(18)O record that penetrates the Quaternary period. The ODP Site 964 allows us to establish the variations of Saharan dust inputs to the eastern Mediterranean Sea during the last 1.5 Ma. Our results indicate that both fluvial sediments from the Nile and Saharan eolian dust inputs to the eastern Mediterranean Sea are greatly influenced by the variability of African monsoon. The glacial/interglacial cycles and other orbital-scale climatic events, such as the “Mid-Pleistocene Transition”, can also affect climate changes in North Africa to a minor extent.