abstract: Land surface fluxes of energy and mass developed over heterogeneous mountain landscapes are fundamental to atmospheric processes. However, due to their high complexity and the lack of spatial observations, land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions are not fully understood in mountain regions. This thesis investigates land surface processes and their impact on convective precipitation by conducting numerical modeling experiments at multiple scales over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region. Specifically, the following scientific questions are addressed: (1) how do land surface conditions evolve during the monsoon season, and what are their main controls?, (2) how do the diurnal cycles of surface energy fluxes vary during the monsoon season for the major ecosystems?, and (3) what are the impacts of surface soil moisture and vegetation condition on convective precipitation? Hydrologic simulation using the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) is firstly carried out to examine the seasonal evolution of land surface conditions. Results reveal that the spatial heterogeneity of land surface temperature and soil moisture increases dramatically with the onset of monsoon, which is related to seasonal changes in topographic and vegetation controls. Similar results are found at regional basin scale using the uncoupled WRF-Hydro model. Meanwhile, the diurnal cycles of surface energy fluxes show large variation between the major ecosystems. Differences in both the peak magnitude and peak timing of plant transpiration induce mesoscale heterogeneity in land surface conditions. Lastly, this dissertation examines the upscale effect of land surface heterogeneity on atmospheric condition through fully-coupled WRF-Hydro simulations. A series of process-based experiments were conducted to identify the pathways of soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism over the NAM region. While modeling experiments confirm the existence of positive soil moisture/vegetation-rainfall feedback, their exact pathways are slightly different. Interactions between soil moisture, vegetation cover, and rainfall through a series of land surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes highlight the strong land-atmosphere coupling in the NAM region, and have important implications on convective rainfall prediction. Overall, this dissertation advances the study of complex land surface processes over the NAM region, and made important contributions in linking complex hydrologic, ecologic and atmospheric processes through numerical modeling. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil and Environmental Engineering 2016

La zone intertropicale est une zone clé du climat mondial, dans la mesure où ce secteur joue un rôle essentiel dans le cycle du carbone à l’échelle globale, via la pompe du carbone par la productivité primaire, elle-même accrue dans les grandes cellules d'upwelling côtières. L’objectif principal de ce travail était de discuter la variabilité climatique haute fréquence ayant affecté l'Océan Atlantique Est tropical au cours des derniers 45 000 ans à l’échelle orbitale et sub-orbitale. Notre étude a ainsi mis en évidence les connexions liant le domaine océanique et le domaine continental (panaches fluviatiles) à travers la comparaison entre les conditions hydrologiques de surface reconstruites par les assemblages phytoplanctoniques microfossiles (kystes de dinoflagellés : principaux outils de cette étude) et la variabilité de la mousson africaine déduite de données géochimiques sédimentaires disponibles sur les 3 carottes d’étude, situées au large du Congo ainsi que dans le Golfe de Guinée. Ce travail de thèse a également permis de réaliser un travail approfondi de mise à jour de la base de données dinokystes modernes et des données environnementales qui leurs sont associées (température et salinité de surface, productivité primaire, mais aussi nouveaux ajouts : densité de l’eau, saisonnalité, ou encore anomalies de températures par rapport à la moyenne des températures calculée selon un axe latitudinal), afin de pouvoir quantifier les paramètres hydrologiques sur les carottes d’étude via la fonction de transfert dinokyste développée pour l’Océan Atlantique tropical. Les assemblages dinokystes ont révélé une grande sensibilité aux effets de la précession, avec des environnements chauds et soumis à de fortes décharges fluviatiles observés en contexte de minima de l'indice de précession, en particulier durant la dernière déglaciation, configuration amplifiée par le maximum d’obliquité. Les résultats issus de la fonction de transfert démontrent le rôle primordial du fleuve Congo dans l'évolution de la productivité primaire au cours du temps, via l'apport massif de nutriments, ainsi que via des mécanismes d'upwelling générés par l'activité du fleuve en elle-même. / The intertropical area is a key domain for the knowledge of past global climate, with indeed a prevalent role regarding of carbon cycle; high productive conditions in this area being induced by the large eastern boundary upwelling cells. The main purpose of this work consisted in discussing the high frequency climate variability that occurred in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean over the last 45,000 years. This area then permitted to highlight land-sea linkages through the relationships existing between marine environments as deduced from microfossil assemblages (dinoflagellate cysts: main proxies of this study) and the African monsoon as reconstructed through river-plume activity, thanks to three cores located off the Congo river mouth and in Gulf of Guinea. Furthermore, this work permitted to deeply update the tropical dinocyst modern database used by the dinocyst-based transfer function method developed for the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (new modern sites and new environmental datasets : SST, SSS, net primary productivity, upwelling activity, seasonality). Dinocyst assemblages revealed a strong influence of precession effects, with warmer and wetter periods reconstructed during minima of precession, especially during the last deglaciation, strongly enhanced by the obliquity maximum. Dinocyst-based transfer function results also highlighted the prevalent role of the Congo River on past primary productivity evolution through strengthened terrigenous inputs to the ocean but also through river-induced upwelling mechanism.

Water resources management in the Sahel region of West Africa is extremely difficult because of high inter-annual rainfall variability as well as a general reduction of water availability in the region. Observed changes in streamflow directly disturb key socioeconomic activities such as the agriculture sector, which constitutes one of the main survival pillars of the West African population. Seasonal rainfall forecasting is considered as one possible way to increase resilience to climate variability by providing information in advance about the amount of rainfall expected in each upcoming rainy season. Moreover, the availability of reliable information about streamflow magnitude a few months before a rainy season will immensely benefit water users who want to plan their activities. However, since the 90s, several studies have attempted to evaluate the predictability of Sahelian weather characteristics and develop seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecast models to help stakeholders take better decisions. Unfortunately, two decades later, forecasting is still difficult, and forecasts have a limited value for decision-making. It is believed that the low performance in seasonal forecasting is due to the limits of commonly used predictors and forecast approaches for this region. In this study, new seasonal forecasting approaches are developed and new predictors tested in an attempt to predict the seasonal rainfall over the Sirba watershed located in between Niger and Burkina Faso, in West Africa. Using combined statistical methods, a pool of 84 predictors with physical links with the West African monsoon and its dynamics were selected, with their optimal lag times. They were first reduced through screening using linear correlation with satellite rainfall over West Africa. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to keep the most predictive principal components. Linear regression was used to get synthetic forecasts, and the model was assessed to rank the tested predictors. The three best predictors, air temperature (from Pacific Tropical North), sea level pressure (from Atlantic Tropical South) and relative humidity (from Mediterranean East) were retained and tested as inputs for seasonal rainfall forecasting models. In this thesis it has been chosen to depart from the stationarity and linearity assumptions used in most seasonal forecasting methods: 1. Two probabilistic non-stationary methods based on change point detection were developed and tested. Each method uses one of the three best predictors. Model M1 allows for changes in model parameters according to annual rainfall magnitude, while M2 allows for changes in model parameters with time. M1 and M2 were compared to the classical linear model with constant parameters (M3) and to the linear model with climatology (M4). The model allowing changes in the predictand-predictor relationship according to rainfall amplitude (M1) and using AirTemp as a predictor was the best model for seasonal rainfall forecasting in the study area. 2. Non-linear models including regression trees, feed-forward neural networks and non-linear principal component analysis were implemented and tested to forecast seasonal rainfall using the same predictors. Forecast performances were compared using coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and hit rate scores. Non-linear principal component analysis was the best non-linear model (R2: 0.46; Nash: 0.45; HIT: 60.7), while the feed-forward neural networks and regression tree models performed poorly. All the developed rainfall forecasting methods were subsequently used to forecast seasonal annual mean streamflow and maximum monthly streamflow by introducing the rainfall forecasted in a SWAT model of the Sirba watershed, and the results are summarized as follows: 1. Non-stationary models: Models M1 and M2 were compared to models M3 and M4, and the results revealed that model M3 using RHUM as a predictor at a lag time of 8 months was the best method for seasonal annual mean streamflow forecasting, whereas model M1 using air temperature as a predictor at a lag time of 4 months was the best model to predict maximum monthly streamflow in the Sirba watershed. Moreover, the calibrated SWAT model achieved a NASH value of 0.83. 2. Non-linear models: The seasonal rainfall obtained from the non-linear principal component analysis model was disaggregated into daily rainfall using the method of fragment, and then fed into the SWAT hydrological model to produce streamflow. This forecast was fairly acceptable, with a Nash value of 0.58. The evaluation of the level of risk associated with each seasonal forecast was carried out using a simple risk measure: the probability of overtopping of the flood protection dykes in Niamey, Niger. A HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model of the Niger River around Niamey was developed for the 1980-2014 period, and a copula analysis was used to model the dependence structure of streamflows and predict the distribution of streamflow in Niamey given the predicted streamflow on the Sirba watershed. Finally, the probabilities of overtopping of the flood protection dykes were estimated for each year in the 1980-2014 period. The findings of this study can be used as a guideline to improve the performance of seasonal forecasting in the Sahel. This research clearly confirmed the possibility of rainfall and streamflow forecasting in the Sirba watershed at a seasonal time scale using potential predictors other than sea surface temperature.

Diese Arbeit zielt darauf ab, die raumzeitlichen Regelmäßigkeiten an Übergängen aufzudecken, die in saisonalen Klima- und Ingenieursystemen beobachtet werden, indem moderne Methoden der komplexen Systemwissenschaft verwendet werden. Das erste System ist der indische Sommermonsun - eine Regenzeit, deren jährliche Schwankungen das Leben und den Wohlstand von mehr als einer Milliarde Menschen auf dem indischen Subkontinent beeinflussen und die Wirtschaft des von der Landwirtschaft abhängigen Landes stark beeinträchtigen. Insbesondere die Kenntnis des zeitlichen Ablaufs des Übergangs vom Vormonsun zum Monsun ist für die Planung landwirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten dringend erforderlich. Die Vorhersage des Monsunzeitpunkts über dem indischen Kontinent bleibt jedoch eine große wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Das zweite ist ein Verbrennungssystem, das anfällig für ein katastrophales Phänomen namens thermoakustische Instabilität ist, das verhindert, dass das Verbrennungssystem unter klimafreundlichen Bedingungen betrieben wird. Eine solche Brennkammer ist typisch für Energie- und Antriebssysteme wie Gasturbinentriebwerke, Boiler und Raketen. Zu verstehen, wann der Übergang zur thermoakustischen Instabilität auftritt und wie dieser Übergang unterdrückt werden kann, sind Schlüsselfragen für die Entwicklung klimafreundlicher Motoren. Diese Dissertation liefert ein neues Verständnis des indischen Sommermonsuns und der thermoakustischen Instabilität durch auf statistischer Physik basierende Ansätze, die verborgene Merkmale in diesen Systemen nahe ihren jeweiligen Übergängen aufdecken. / This thesis aims to reveal the spatiotemporal regularities at transitions observed in seasonal climate and engineering systems by utilizing modern methods of complex systems science. The first system is the Indian Summer Monsoon - a rainy season whose yearly variability affects the life and prosperity of more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent and strongly impacts the economy of the agriculture-dependent country. In particular, knowledge of the timing of the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon is greatly needed for the planning of agriculture activities. However, the prediction of monsoon timing over the Indian continent remains a significant scientific challenge. The second is a combustion system prone to a catastrophic phenomenon called thermoacoustic instability, which prevents the combustion system from being operated in climate-friendly conditions. Such a combustor is typical in power and propulsion systems such as gas turbine engines, boilers, and rockets. Understanding when the transition to thermoacoustic instability occurs and how to suppress this transition are key questions for developing climate-friendly engines. This thesis provides a new understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon and thermoacoustic instability through statistical physics-based approaches that reveal hidden features in these systems near their respective transitions.

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is the lowest layer of the atmosphere where surface effects are felt on time scales of about an hour. While its properties are determined by the surface characteristics, season and synoptic conditions, they in turn determine convective cloud properties and are required for the representation of cloud processes in atmospheric models. Further, interaction of the ABL with the surface layer of the ocean is a key component of ocean-atmosphere coupling. ABL characteristics over ocean surrounding the sub-continent become very important for understanding the monsoon processes during the monsoon season because the roots of many monsoon systems, that give rain to India, are over there. In this thesis data used are from three major field experiments namely the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX, 1999), Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX, in two phases, ARMEX-I during 2002 and ARMEX-II in 2003), and Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) experiment (Pilot in 2009) which were carried out under the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP). While there have been few studies on ABL characteristics for individual cruises, a comprehensive study considering all available radiosonde data from the above cruises has been missing. This study fills this gap and focuses on the vertical structure of ABL using more than 400 high resolution Vaisala GPS radiosonde data collected over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. The study attempts at first to look at the ABL characteristics of individual cruises and then compare and contrast them over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. ABL height Hm, estimated by using virtual potential temperature (θv) profile, shows diurnal variation during weak phase of convection while maximum in early morning during active phase of convection. Different variables i.e. moist static energy (h), specific humidity (q), convective available potential energy (CAPE), virtual potential temperature (θv) and equivalent potential temperature (θe) also differ during weak and active convection periods. Conserved variables mixing line approach gives the height up to which ground thermals penetrate in the vertical. This height, denoted by MH that represents the actual ABL height, is 2-3 times larger than Hm when shallow convective clouds are present. In general both Hm and MH are 20-30% larger over Arabian Sea compares to that over Bay of Bengal. Comparison of surface convective available potential energy (CAPE) and equivalent potential temperature (θe) between normal and deficit monsoon years shows that convective instability was as large in deficit years. This means that dynamic and not thermodynamics, controlled the occurrence of convection.

This dissertation deals with a holistic and multidisciplinary approach to the socio-economic relations between the Ancient Near East and East Africa during the Old Testament period. In my opinion this multidisciplinary approach by using inter alia Biblical Archaeology, History and Economics has the potential to offer various comprehensive opportunities for the analysis and discussion of such socio-economic relationships. For example, the relationship between the United Monarchy of Israel and Phoenicia involves the geopolitical, economic and other situations. In the last chapter attempts are made to integrate all the relevant dimensions in a wellfounded conclusion. / Biblical and Ancient Studies / M.A. (Biblical Archaeology)

Thesis (MDram (Drama))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The aim of this thesis is to study the themes of identity and belonging in the films of Mira Nair. Three films form the basis of this study namely Salaam Bombay!, Mississippi Masala and Monsoon Wedding. The approach is thematic, i.e using the film to explore different socio-political themes of identity rather than looking at the methodology she uses as a filmmaker. The analysis of each of the three films looks at a particular form of identity namely national, cultural or personal identity, and makes reference to Nair’s own comments on the films as well as academic articles on the films, her work and issues such as identity, nostalgia, home, belonging, marginalization, immigrants, street children and the like, in order to interrogate Nair’s exploration of the particular ideas within these films. It examines the films as if it were a work of literature, and looks at how it deals with these issues within a filmic context. What symbols does she use to show us we are dealing with cultural identity? Which character is symbolic of the modernist movement? Finally it examines the potential effect of these films on the society from which they derive, and comes to some conclusions about the effect these films may have in challenging, shaping and/or influencing ideas about nostalgia, home, identity, and so on. The discussions of the films show that she has been superbly able to exploit all the advantages of her chosen medium to bring her remarkable visual inventiveness and artistry into play in order to communicate this to an international audience and to make them think about the issues at hand. The filmmaker is finally established not only as simply a creator of film, but ultimately as a thinker and poet. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie tesis is om die temas van identiteit en ‘n gevoel van behoort in die films van Mira Nair te bestudeer. Drie films vorm die basis van die studie naamlik Salaam Bombay!, Mississippi Masala en Monsoon Wedding. Die aanslag is tematies van aard, m.a.w. dit gebruik die films om die verskillende sosio-ekonomise temas van identiteit te identifiseer en ontleed, eerder as om die metodologie van haar as filmmaker te bestudeer. Die analise van elke van die drie films kyk na ‘n spesifieke vorm van identiteit, naamlik nasionale, kulturele of persoonlike identiteit en maak verwysing na kommentaar deur Nair haarself, sowel as akademiese artikels oor die films, haar werk en kwessies van identiteit, nostalgie, die konsep van ‘n tuiste, ‘n gevoel van behoort, marginalisasie, immigrante, straat kinders en dies meer. Die doel is om sodoende Nair se idees oor identiteit binne hierdie films te bevraagteken en ontleed. Die tesis ondersoek die films asof dit ‘n literere werk is, en neem in ag die maniere waarop dit na hierdie kwessies kyk binne ‘n filmiese konteks. Daar word byvoorbeeld gekyk na watter simbole sy gebruik wanneer sy verwys na kulturele identiteit. Watter karakter is die simbool vir die modernistiese beweging, ens. Uitendelik bevraagteken die tesis the potensiële effek van hierdie films op die omgewing en omstandighede waaruit dit ontstaan het, en kom tot sekere gevolgtrekkings met betrekking tot die mate waarin hierdie films kwessies van tuiste, nostalgie, identiteit ens beinvloed en/of vorm en bevraagteken. Die besprekings dui daarop dat sy baie bevoeg is om al die voordele van haar verkose medium tesame met haar indrukwekkende visuele verbeelding te gebruik om aan ‘n internasionale gehoor die kwessies te kommunikeer en hul te dwing om aktief te dink oor die kwessies aan hand. Uiteindelik word die filmmaker Nair nie slegs as ‘n skepper van film beskryf nie, maar ook as ‘n denker en digter.

The Himalaya plays a vital role in shaping the hydro-climate of South Asia and beyond, but their climate has not yet been monitored and modelled as well as some other regions. As the summer monsoon is the dominant climate system over South Asia, including the Himalaya, realistic simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) should be a prerequisite for the satisfactory simulation of the Himalayan climate. The present research tests the assumption that higher resolution modelling will provide improved representation of the SASM, both regionally and over the Himalaya region. The first part of this research assesses the strength and stability of the temporal relationships between the monsoon rainfall indices (MRIs) and the large-scale monsoon circulation indices (MCIs), as a precursor to using such indices for model evaluation. The remainder of the thesis evaluates model performance in simulating various characteristics of SASM, mainly with regard to precipitation. In particular, the sensitivity of a regional climate model (RCM) simulation to domain size and added value of high resolution RCM simulation are evaluated. For this purpose, the Hadley Centre unified model - HadGEM is utilized in its regional and, in few instances, global configurations. The RCM simulations are performed at 0.44° and 0.11° horizontal resolutions and they are forced by the ERA interim dataset. Results show that i) the MRI-MCI relationship exhibits considerable low-frequency variability, ii) RCM simulation of SASM, particularly precipitation, shows sensitivity to domain size and simulation with a moderately sized domain that partially excludes bias prone equatorial Indian ocean outperform those with larger domains, iii) high resolution RCM simulation adds value in many aspects of SASM precipitation, including the seasonal mean, relative frequency distribution, extremes, and active and break monsoon composites, but the improvements are generally seen over the Indo-Gangetic plain rather than the Himalaya. The findings promote use of a high resolution RCM over a moderate sized domain (~ 25,000,000 sq. km) for the realistic simulation of SASM, but the study needs to be repeated with multiple realizations and different RCMs before arriving at a robust conclusion.

La variabilité intrasaisonnière de la mousson d'Afrique de l'Ouest se caractérise par une alternance de phases sèches et humides, dont les impacts pe uvent être dramatiques sur les populations locales. Cette variabilité met en jeu un grand nombre d'échelles spatiales et temporelles, rendant difficile sa compréhension, sa modélisation et sa prévision. Cette thèse propose quelques éclairages sur ces différentes thématiques. La dépression thermique saharienne est un acteur majeur de la mousson africaine. La caractérisation de sa variabilité intrasaisonnière a permis de mettre en évidence, à l'échelle de 15 jours, l'existence d'interactions entre les latitudes moyennes et l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Lors de son passage au-dessus de l'Atlantique et la Méditerranée, un train d'ondes de Rossby module les ventilations de la dépression thermique, et donc sa structure. Les anomalies de circulation, de température et d'humidité, ainsi induites sur le Sahel, pourraient alors expliquer une partie des fluctuations intrasaisonnières de la convection, notamment celles qui naissent sur l'est du Sahel, et qui se propagent ensuite vers l'ouest. L'état moyen et la variabilité intrasaisonnière de la mousson africaine restent un défi pour les modèles de climat, même pour la dernière génération, qui a participé à l'exercice d'intercomparaison CMIP3. La variabilité à haute fréquence de la convection est un élément particulièrement difficile à modéliser. Toutefois, la meilleure prise en compte de facteurs inhibant le développement de la convection pourrait être une étape importante pour améliorer la modélisation de la mousson et la prévision de ses fluctuations intrasaisonnières / The intraseasonal variability of the West African Monsoon is associated with persistent dry and wet periods over the Sahel, whose consequences can be dramatic for local populations. Its understanding, modelling and forecast still pose a challenge to the scientific community, notably because it involves a large number of space and timescales. The present study elaborates a few answers to these issues. The Saharan heat low is one of the major actors of the African monsoon. The characterization of its intraseasonal variability revealed the existence of interaction between the tropics and the extratropics, at the 15-day timescale. As it propagates eastward above the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, a Rossby wave train modulates the heat low ventilations, and thus its structure. Anomalous circulation, as well as temperature and humidity anomalies, can be induced over the Sahel, and lead to intraseasonal modulations of convection, especially to those, which originate from the Eastern Sahel, and which, then, propagate westward. Current state-of-the-art (CMIP3) climate models still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the West African monsoon mean state and intraseasonal variability. The high frequency variability is particularly difficult to capture. However, the account for processes, which inhibit convection development, may be expected to be an important step in the improvement of the monsoon modelling and the forecast of its intraseasonal fluctuations

Les océans expliquent une part importante de la variabilité des pluies de mousson en Afrique de l’ouest. Quels sont les mécanismes physiques de ces interactions océan– atmosphère ? Comment sont-elles reproduites par les modèles de climat ? Ces deux questions sont ici abordées, en séparant d’emblée les échelles de temps interannuelles et décennales, et en confrontant les simulations réalisées pour le 4e rapport du Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) aux données observées du xxe siècle. À l’échelle interannuelle, les anomalies de température à la surface du Pacifique équatorial, du golfe de Guinée, et de la Méditerranée sont statistiquement liées aux anomalies des pluies d’Afrique de l’ouest. La question de la stationnarité de ces liens au cours du xxe siècle est brièvement abordée. Les mécanismes physiques sont ensuite appréhendés dans les réanalyses atmosphériques et dans les simulations couplées du GIEC. Pour comprendre le comportement du modèle du Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), différentes expériences de sensibilité sont réalisées en prescrivant à l’océan une tension de vent réanalysée, sur le Pacifique tropical ou sur tout globe. Une simulation atmosphérique avec des températures de surface prescrites est aussi utilisée pour discuter du rôle du couplage océan–atmosphère. Étant donné le caractère saisonnier de la mousson africaine, le phasage temporel de la variabilité océanique doit être considéré avec attention. Dans les modèles couplés, les biais de l’El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et de l’Atlantic Niño conduisent en effet à des interactions océan–mousson différentes de celles observées. À terme, une meilleure compréhension et simulation de la variabilité océanique et de ses influences pourrait permettre d’améliorer les scores de prévision saisonnière sur l’Afrique de l’ouest / The oceans explain an important part of the variability of monsoon rainfall overWest Africa. What are the physical processes of those ocean–atmosphere interactions? How are they simulated by climate models? Both issues are addressed, by considering the interannual and decadal time-scales separately, and comparing the simulations performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the 20th Century observation record. At the interannual time-scale, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Mediterranean, are statistically linked to the West African monsoon rainfall. The stationnarity of those links is assessed over the 20th Century. The physical processes are then studied in the atmospheric reanalyses and in the IPCC coupled simulations. To understand the behaviour of the Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) model, various sensitivity experiments are carried out, with a reanalyzed wind-stress prescribed to the ocean model, over the tropical Pacific or over the global ocean. An atmospheric simulation with prescribed sea surface temperatures is also used, to discuss the role of the ocean–atmosphere coupling. Given the seasonality of the West African monsoon, attention has to be paid to the phaselocking of the oceanic variability. In the coupled models, the biases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the Atlantic Niño lead indeed to ocean–monsoon interactions that are different from those observed. A better understanding and simulation of the oceanic variability and its influences could in fine enhance the seasonal forecasting skills over West Africa