Thesis (D. Min.)--Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, Charlotte, NC, 2002. / Abstract and vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 117-123).

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published_or_final_version / Architecture / Master / Master of Architecture

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When making decisions on which areas to harvest in a sustained yield, even-flow manner in mountainous areas such those in coastal British Columbia, it is important to know how timber productivity changes with elevation. This information allows foresters to decide at what elevation to start increasing the rotation age and to decide at what elevation sustainable harvesting becomes infeasible due to low productivity. Since Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis Dougl. ex Forbes) has an elevation range that extends from sea level nearly to the tree line (0 m to approximately 1,650 m; from the Coastal Western Hemlock zone, through the Mountain Hemlock zone; to the lower limits of the Alpine Tundra zone), productivity-elevation relationships are especially important. To acquire quantitative measures of productivity decrease with increasing elevation a regression equation relating site index (the height of the dominant trees at a base age of breast height age of 50 years) to elevation in southern coastal BC was developed. In turn, we used this regression as an input into the height driven yield model named the Variable Density Yield Prediction model (VDYP). The use of the VDYP model allows the site index values to be translated into actual productivity measures (e.g., volume per hectare, mean annual increment at culmination age).

Site classification in the biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system is based on three differentiating properties: climatic regimes (expressed by biogeoclimatic subzones or variants), soil moisture regimes (SMRs), and soil nutrient regimes (SNRs). A SNR represents a segment of a regional soil nutrient gradient, i.e., soils which provide similar levels of plant-available nutrients over a long period. SNRs are identified in the field using a number of easily observable soil morphological properties and indicator plant species. However, we need to know to what extent soil nutrient properties support these indirect field-estimates. There have been several studies that quantitatively characterize regional soil nutrient gradients in different climatic regions, but no study has yet been done in the subalpine coastal forest (Mountain Hemlock zone). Influenced by a maritime subalpine boreal climate, high-elevation coastal soils differ from low-elevation soils by having a thicker forest floor and a higher organic matter content. In the study summarized here, relationships between soil chemical properties and field-estimated SNRs are examined and soil chemical properties and field-identified SNRs are related to the site index of Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis (Dougl. ex Loud.) Forbes) - one of the major timber crop species in the Coastal Western Hemlock and Mountain Hemlock zones.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

Macoun’s arctic (Oeneis macounii) is a biennial satyrine butterfly found predominantly in boreal forests of North America. I monitored populations of O. macounii in Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) in 2011 and in Sandilands Provincial Forest in 2012. I captured, sexed, marked and took UTM coordinates of butterflies to compare population sizes, sex ratios, longevity, dispersal and behaviour. I measured habitat variables around capture sites at RMNP, to establish environmental characteristics associated with butterfly occurrence. Population estimates at Sandilands show that the population size there is robust, but could not be calculated at RMNP. The number of butterflies observed at RMNP suggests that the population there is small and localized. In RMNP, males were more often in forested sites with sunny clearings, while female encounter sites were dominated by grasses, suggesting sexual segregation. The data collected from this survey is important for conservation strategies for the declining population at RMNP.

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