Reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm in machinelearning, witnessing remarkable progress in recent years. Amongreinforcement algorithms, Q-learning stands out, enabling agents tolearn quickly from past actions. This study aims to investigate andenhance Q-learning methodologies, with a specific focus on tabularQ-learning. In particular, it addresses Q-learning with an actionspace containing actions that require different amounts of time toexecute. With such an action space the algorithm might convergeto a suboptimal solution when using a constant discount factor sincediscounting occurs per action and not per time step. We refer to thisissue as the non-temporal discounting (NTD) problem. By introducinga time-normalised discounting function, we were able to address theissue of NTD. In addition, we were able to stabilise the solutionby implementing a cost for specific actions. As a result, the modelconverged to the expected solution. Building on these results it wouldbe wise to implement time-normalised discounting in a state-of-the-artreinforcement learning model such as deep Q-learning.

The main task of this thesis is to perform image segmentation on images of fingers to partition the image into two parts, one with the fingers and one with all that is not fingers. First, we present the theory behind several well-used image segmentation methods, such as SNIC superpixels, the k-means algorithm, and the normalised cut algorithm. These have then been implemented and tested on images of fingers and the results are shown. The implementations are unfortunately not stable and give segmentations of varying results.

This thesis combines five published research papers investigating methods of improving the safety and control of oral anticoagulation, with the use of computer assisted dosage and the standardisation of the International Normalised Ratio (INR). The INR is a conventional measurement derived from the time it takes blood of a patient to form a clot and is used to monitor the effects of widely used oral anticoagulants such as warfarin for the prevention of stroke and other related disorders. The first paper investigates whether the use of computer-assisted programs was as safe and effective as medical staff manual dosage in the prevention of bleeding or thrombotic complications during oral anticoagulant treatment. This was an international multi-centre randomised study conducted by the European Action on Anticoagulation (EAA) investigating the clinical benefit of two computer programs, PARMA 5 (Italy) and DAWN AC (UK). Composite clinical events were reduced by 7.6% using computer programs, though not achieving statistical significance (p=0.1), showing computer programs to be not dissimilar to medical staff dosage. The second paper recommends guidelines for screening safety and effectiveness of other marketed computer programs based on the results of the EAA study. A process for a candidate computer program to achieve non-inferiority relative to the medical staff dosage arm from the EAA study is explained. The third paper introduces a modified approach to the 'Direct INR' method for the standardisation of INR termed the 'Prothrombin Time/INR Line' (PT/INR). This was directly compared to the local International Sensitivity Index (ISI) calibration procedure originally approved by the World Health Organisation and later by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Using manually certified lyophilised plasmas tested by specialist centres, the PT/INR Line using a set of 5 calibrant plasmas to establish a fitted line to estimate local INR was shown to be as effective as the FDA procedure. The fourth paper investigates the PT/INR Line further by using simulated sets of calibrant plasmas across the therapeutic range of 2.0-4.5 INR and determining the PT/INR Line. Local INR of five validation plasmas, certified by 3 centres using the manual PT technique, was determined using the estimated PT/INR Lines and compared with local ISI calibration. Using 4 or 5 calibrant plasmas to determine the PT/INR Line was shown to be as accurate as local ISI calibrations for reliable local INR.The fifth and final paper assessed INR variability and control in oral anticoagulant therapy using a method termed the Variance Growth Rate (VGR), and compared its predictive ability of adverse events with the Time in Target INR range (TIR), the conventional method used in evaluating the quality of oral anticoagulant therapy. The VGR method was shown to be a better predictor of adverse bleeding or thrombotic episodes in the short term period prior to an event (3 and 6 months) compared with TIR.

La motivació de la tesis deriva en el interès de la indústria aeronàutica a explotar, per mitjà d'un disseny adaptat, la utilització del gir d'esquerda per protegir els reforços situats davant una esquerda que s'està propagant en la xapa d'una estructura integral. L'objectiu principal és l'avaluació i predicció del gir d'esquerda en situacions de càrrega pròximes a Mode I, proporcionant una eina de modelització i un criteri confident. L'entorn industrial sota el qual s'ha realitzat aquest treball requereix una predicció ràpida del comportament estructural proporcionant informació útil als constructors. Per aquest motiu la predicció del gir d'esquerda s'ha investigat utilitzant la teoria linear elàstica de la mecànica de la fractura (LEFM) i l'anàlisi amb elements finits (FEA).Durant aquest treball s'ha demostrat la importància i necessitat de caracteritzar el camp de tensions a la punta de l'esquerda amb el factor d'intensitat de tensió (SIF) conjuntament amb un segon paràmetre. La tensió uniforme, no singular, normal a la línea de l'esquerda i dependent en la geometria i càrrega de la proveta, es a dir la tensió T, ha estat seleccionada com a segon paràmetre per dur a terme les prediccions del gir d'esquerda.El criteri més desenvolupat per predir el gir d'esquerda en situacions pròximes a Mode I és el proposat per Buczek, Herakovich, Boone et al., anomenat WEFO en la tesis. Aquest combina el criteri de tensió principal màxima amb la tensió T i considera efectes d'anisotropia. LEFM s'ha utilitzat també en la predicció del gir d'esquerda sota càrregues quasi estàtiques controlant en tot moment la plastificació del lligament.En la investigació d'eines de modelització/simulació s'ha tingut en compte les capacitats d'aquestes en el camp de la mecànica de la fractura, de disseny, d'implementació, així com la complexitat d'ús. Tot i que hi ha un gran ventall de Softwares que compleixen els requeriments assenyalats, només aquells que es trobaven a l'abast de l'autor s'han analitzat. StressCheck ha estat escollit com a resultat de la investigació. L'avaluació de la propagació de l'esquerda en provetes compactes en tensió (CT) i en provetes amb dos elements reforçants (2SP) sota els règims de Paris i Forman ha estat satisfactòria.Un pas important ha estat la implementació de la capacitat d'extracció de la tensió T. La demostració de la fiabilitat en el seu càlcul s'ha demostrat mitjançant resultats en la literatura i càlculs analítics en provetes de doble biga en volada (DCB). Un aspecte a tenir en compte és la importància en realitzar anàlisis no linears geomètrics pel càlcul del SIF i la tensió T.Prediccions en la trajectòria de l'esquerda s'han realitzat en base amb els resultats obtinguts en l'estudi de modelització. La millor trajectòria s'ha predit per mitjà del criteri WEFO. No obstant, les diferents trajectòries obtingudes per una esquerda propagant-se en la direcció T-L o L-T no són comparables amb els resultats experimentals.Aquestes deficiències estan relacionades en la definició del punt d'inestabilitat de l'esquerda. Algunes referències posen de manifest que hi ha experiències on l'esquerda es comporta de forma estable tot i mostrar T > 0. Per un altre banda, els criteris WEF i WEFO defineixen la inestabilitat dependent d'una distancia específica del material, rc. Però la seva definició no és única i no existeix cap acord sobre el seu càlcul.L'autor proposa un criteri derivat dels criteris existents i basant-se en els assajos, simulacions i resultats obtinguts. Aquest deriva del treball de Pettit i la tensió T normalitzada, TR, proposada per Pook. La fiabilitat d'aquest criteri es demostra amb la proveta DCB. Les prediccions de la trajectòria de l'esquerda en la proveta cruciforme no són tant satisfactòries. Tot i així, s'ha d'accentuar que el criteri desenvolupat proporciona la predicció més acurada. / The motivation of this thesis started from the interest of aeronautical industry to exploit the utilization of crack turning to protect stiffeners in front of an approaching skin-crack in integral structures by a tailored design. The main objective was to assess and predict crack turning under nearly Mode I situations on structures that reproduce aeronautical conditions by providing a modelling tool and a reliable criterion. The industrial environmental in which this work has been carried out requires a fast prediction of the structural behaviour to provide useful inputs to aircraft designers. It is for this reason that the crack turning prediction was investigated by means of LEFM and FEA. During this work it has been shown the importance and necessity of a second parameter for the characterisation of the stress field at the crack tip besides the SIF. Among the different proposed second parameters, the uniform non-singular stress, normal to the crack line and dependent on the type of loading and specimen geometry, i.e. the T-stress, was selected for crack turning predictions due to both calculation simplicity and its independence of the crack tip distance. The most developed criterion for crack turning predictions near Mode I loading is the criterion proposed by Buczek, Herakovich and Boone et al., called the WEFO-criterion. This is the Maximal Principal Stress criterion implemented with the T-stress and taking into account anisotropic effects. A challenge of this thesis was to overcome the lack of prediction on crack turning provided by this last criterion.Although the validity of LEFM is restricted, it was applied for the prediction of crack turning for quasi-static loading while paying attention to possible plastification. A screening of existent commercial and non commercial tools was carried out in respect to their fracture mechanics capabilities, their design abilities, implementation as well as their complexity. Although, there are many software possibilities, only those within the reach of the author were evaluated. This resulted in the selection of the commercial tool StressCheck®. The assessment of crack propagation on compact tension and two stringer specimens governed by the Paris and Forman regimes was satisfactory compared with experimental results using the material data from simple standard specimens.An important step was the implementation of the T-stress extraction facility in the tool and the evidence of its reliability. The latter was proved by literature and analytical calculations on DCB specimens. An important finding was the importance to perform geometric non-linear analyses for computing SIF and T-stress to find values comparable with literature data and analytical calculations. Taking into account the results obtained on the modelling study, crack path predictions were performed. The best prediction by means of existing criteria was reached by the WEFO-criterion. Different crack paths were predicted for a crack propagating in T-L or L-T directions. However, these predictions were not satisfactorily reliable: the point in the crack path where crack turning should take place was not predicted adequately. Additionally, the crack paths were similar for T L and L-T directions. These deficiencies are related with the definition of the crack path instability. Some literature results have shown that in some experiences the crack behaved in a stable manner even if T > 0. Moreover, WEF and WEFO criteria define crack instability to be related with a material specific distance, rc, but, there is no agreement about its definition. Based on tests, simulation results and observations noted during this work, a compilation criterion was proposed. This is based on the work of Pettit and the normalised T-stress, TR, proposed by Pook. Its reliability was successfully proved on the DCB. The crack path predictions on the CFS were not as satisfactory. But even at its worst the developed criterion was the most accurate.

In this thesis we use the method of Semantic Mirrors to create a graph of words that are semantically related to a seed word. Spectral graph partitioning methods are then used to partition the graph into subgraphs, and thus dividing the words into different word senses. These methods are applied to a bilingual lexicon of English and Swedish adjectives. A panel of human evaluators have looked at a few examples, and evaluated consistency within the derived senses and synonymy with the seed word.

Magister Artium - MA / Climate has been changing significantly around the globe; hence climate variability is of great interest to researchers. The changes in climate have caused variances in rainfall and temperature, both elements of paramount importance in farming, whether commercial or communal farming. As these fluctuations in temperature and rainfall occur, they cause direct impacts on different livelihoods, fauna and flora. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the human management responses of farmers in two different contexts of communal farming (Makolokwe) and commercial farming (Touws River valley), with a focus investigation on the adaptation and coping strategies of the farmers, as well as spatial analysis of the vegetation and rainfall variability. Farmers were asked to discuss climate and adaptation based on the rainfall data available as well as far as they could remember the occurrence of changes. Rainfall data was available between 1988 and 2017 for Touws River, while the data utilised for Makolokwe was available between 1928 and 2016. The link between the local knowledge of the farmers and scientific knowledge is an important aspect of this research. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to analyse the vegetation changes on a temporal and spatial scale in the context of Makolokwe and Touws River valley respectively. The differing variations in climate variability and change experienced by the two farming communities are placed alongside an exploration of the adaptation and coping measures which are put in place by farmers as a response to the changes evident in climate, as it allows for better and thorough understanding of the occurring changes in the two communities. The study found that perceptions about climate variability vary in the two communities although there are some common factors. Farmers’ perceptions about climate variability are drawn from their own observations at a local level as well as knowledge from the media regarding terms such as El Niño and drought. Farmers in both communities indicated that they experienced insufficient rain in the winter months which had an impact on the grazing areas and the management of the livestock. These months also threatened livelihoods, especially for farmers who depend on their livestock for their livelihood, in particular communal farmers. Perceptions of factors such as decreasing grazing and vegetation in their environments have led to the adoption of adaptation and coping strategies on the part of farmers. Commercial farmers have more choices in this regard than communal farmers, such as converting to game farming. Common coping strategies include: (1) farmers have had to subsidise and use alternative food sources for the livestock, (2) livestock numbers have been reduced in order to adapt to climate variability, with an impact on livelihoods (3) farmers have had to rely on their hope and faith that things will get better. Planning for climate variability is challenging for land managers. Knowledge and access to resources is therefore essential in ensuring that farmers are kept on track with the changing environment.

Arbetsutlöst myokardischemi kan diagnostiseras med arbetsprovet, främst genom parametern ST60-sänkning under arbete samt återhämtningsfasen. Tidigare studier har visat arbetsprovets låga diagnostiska förmåga av arbetsutlöst myokardischemi och klassificerat det som en osäker metod, speciellt för kvinnor, och få studier har gjorts på kvinnor för förbättring. En justering av ST60-sänkning med hänsyn till hjärtfrekvensen (HR) har gjorts i flera studier, i försök att utveckla diagnostiken. När hjärtfrekvensen ritas grafiskt mot ST60- sänkning erhålls en ST/HR loop bestående av arbetsfasen och återhämtningsfasen. Den normaliserade arean (NA), som erhålls från ST/HR- loopen, är ett mått på sannolikheten för ischemi och dess grad. Studiens syfte är att, utifrån ST/HR loopars NA-värden från arbetselektrokardiogram, avgöra om diagnostiken av ischemi hos kvinnor kan förbättras i jämförelse med den konventionella bedömningen som baseras på ST60-sänkningen i slutet av arbete. Myokardscintigrafi (facitmetoden) och arbetsprov har utförts på den klinisk fysiologiska avdelningen i lund. Kontrollgruppen bestod av 80 kvinnor med normal myokardscintigrafi medan gruppen ”sjuka” omfattar 26 patienter som med myokardscintigrafi bedömts ha arbetsutlöst myokardischemi. För att i denna studie påvisa om det föreligger en statistisk skillnad mellan sjuka och friska, gällande NA – värdet respektive ST60-sänkningen, användes t-testet. En skillnad mellan sjuka och friska med NA- värde kunde inte påvisas och den konventionella bedömningen med ST60-sänkning visade sig inte heller vara bättre än NA-värdet för bedömning av arbetsutlöst myokardischemi.Nyckelord: arbets- EKG, myokardischemi, myokardscintigrafi, normaliserad area, ST60- sänkning, ST/HR- loop. / Exercise induced myocardial ischemia can be diagnosed with exercise–ECG, mainly through the parameter ST60-depression during the exercise and recovery phases. However, its low diagnostic accuracy, especially in women, has been proven. An adjustment of the ST60-depression with the heart rate has been done in several studies to develop the diagnosis. When the heart rate is plotted against the ST60-depression, an ST/HR- loop is obtained where both the exercise and recovery phases are included. The normalised area (NA) of the loop is believed to be significant for the diagnosis of ischemia. The aim of the study is to decide if the diagnosis of ischemia in women can be improved with the normalised area of the loop, from exercise– ECG, compared to the conventional assessment with ST60-depression at the end of exercise.Myocardial scintigraphy (the reference method) and exercise- ECG have been performed at the department of clinical physiology in Lund. The control group included 80 women with a normal myocardial scintigraphy while the other group consists of 26 patients who, according to their myocardial scintigraphy, have exercise induced myocardial ischemia. A distinction between the groups could not be made with the normalised area. The conventional assessment with ST60-depression was not better than the normalised area for the assessment of myocardial ischemia.Key words: Exercise- ECG, myocardial ischemia, myocardial scintigraphy, normalised area, ST60- depression, ST/HR-loop.

South Africa ratified the Stockholm Convention (SC), which became legally binding on 17 May 2004. This Convention targets 12 particularly toxic persistent organic pollutants (POPs) for virtual elimination. The Convention also requires parties to reduce the release of organochlorine pesticides and the intentionally- and unintentionally-produced POPs such as dioxins, furans and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (referred to as dioxin-like chemicals). Dioxins are a heterogeneous mixture of chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) congeners. These substances were never intentionally produced but are produced as by-products of industrial processes (such as metallurgical processes and bleaching of paper pulp). They can also be formed during natural processes such as volcanic eruptions and forest fires. The largest contributor to releases of PCDD/Fs in the environment is incomplete combustion from waste incinerators leading to the unintentional production of these compounds. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are used in transformers and capacitors, but can also be formed unintentionally during industrial and thermal processes. Dioxin-like chemicals (PCDD/Fs and/or PCBs) are classified as persistent because of the following characteristics: lipophilicity and hydrophobicity; resistance to photolytic, chemical and biological degradation and they are able to travel long distances. As South Africa is a semiarid region, POPs will be less prone to travel here because these substances favour colder regions with high soil organic matter. Fish, predatory birds, mammals (including humans) absorb high concentrations of POPs through the process of bio-concentration, leading to bio-accumulation of these substances in the fatty tissue. PCDD/Fs occur as unwanted trace contaminants in air, water, land, in residues and products (such as consumer goods e.g. paper and textiles). The distribution of these chemicals into various matrices is problematic since they cause damage to the environment and human health. These chemicals pose a threat to human health when found in high concentrations that may lead to acute hepatoxicity and dermal toxicity (chloracne). Long-term exposure to low concentrations of these substances might lead to chronic effects such as reproductive problems and carcinogenicity. Since ferrous and non-ferrous metal production is a source of dioxin-like chemicals, a platinum mine in the Limpopo Province, South Africa, was selected for this investigation. The aim of the study was to determine if there are dioxin-like chemicals associated with platinum mining and processing, and if the H4IIE reporter gene bio-assay could be used to semi-quantify and assess the potencies of the complex environmental and process samples by determining their Toxic Equivalency Quotients (TEQ). The implications of the sources to the formation of dioxin-like chemicals regarding the SC were investigated and recommendations were made to improve this study. Samples were collected from tailings dams, woodchips, a dumpsite and slag from the smelter at Union Section. Samples were extracted with the Soxhlet apparatus using hexane as solvent. The percentage total organic carbon (%TOC) was determined for each sample to normalise the data. The method used was the Walkley-Black method. In determining the TEQ of each sample, the H4IIE luc cell line was used. The cells of the H4IIE luc line are genetically modified rat hepatoma cells stably transfected with a luciferase firefly gene. The luciferase gene is activated by the presence of dioxin-like compounds and the concentration of the enzyme is measured as relative light units (RLUs). The amount of RLUs is directly proportional to the dioxin load in the extract. This method is rapid, cost and time-effective in determining the TEQ when compared to chemical analysis. The TEQ2o-valuesin the various samples, as determined with the H4IIE luc cell line, ranged from 0.007 ngTEQ/kg to 54.06 ngTEQ/kg. Thermal processes at the smelter, sorption of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) to soil and tailings, and external sources such as anthropogenic activities contributed to high TEQ2o-values. Climatic conditions, wind, precipitation, and solubility of HOCs into surfactants lead to low TEQ20. The smelter at Union Section had a very high TEQ20of 44.62 ngTEQ/kg compared to Impala Platinum mine (5.15 ngTEQ/kg). This implies that workers at Union Section are possibly exposed to low and high concentrations of dioxin-like chemicals. Long-term exposure to these compounds could lead to bio-accumulation in the fatty tissue of the mine workers, leading to chronic effects such as reproductive problems and cancer. The air emission of the furnace at the smelter was 0.03 gTEQ/annum and the release of the PCDD/Fs into the slag was 0.60 gTEQ/annum. By effectively managing the smelter it is possible to reduce the TEQ. The TEQ of each sample increased due to normalising the data. The normalised TEQ20 ranged from 0.94 ng TEQ/kg to 42497.48 ngTEQ/kg. Dioxin-like chemicals are present on a platinum mine, but at varying quantities and the effects of these compounds might be detrimental to the environment and the workers at the platinum mine. Further analyses of the health impacts associated with the platinum mine are needed. The H4IIE reporter gene bio-assay could be used to effectively determine the TEQ of each sample. Although this investigation has identified the formation and presence of dioxin-like chemicals at certain stages of mining and processing, not all of the processes were investigated. Some of these processes have the potential to add, and even destroy, these chemicals, affecting potential human exposure and amounts released to the environment. This, however, requires further investigation. The financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to the NRF. / Thesis (M. Environmental Science)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

Plusieurs études ont examiné la sensibilité aux antimicrobiens chez les bactéries d’organismes provenant de produits issus de l’aquaculture ou de leur environnement. Aucune information n’est cependant disponible concernant la résistance aux antimicrobiens dans les bactéries de la flore de poissons ou de fruits de mer vendus au détail au Canada. C’est particulièrement vrai en ce qui a trait aux bactéries des genres Aeromonas et Vibrio, dont certaines espèces sont des agents pathogènes zoonotiques connus. Au cours de cette étude, la sensibilité aux antimicrobiens d’isolats d’Aeromonas spp. et de Vibrio spp. provenant de poissons et de crevettes domestiques et importés a été mesurée à l’aide de techniques de micro dilution en bouillon et/ou de diffusion sur disque. Les classes d’antimicrobiens examinés comprenaient les tétracyclines (TET), les inhibiteurs de la voie des folates (sulfadiméthoxine-triméthoprime, SXT), le florfenicol (FLO), et les quinolones (acide nalidixique / enrofloxacine, NA/ENO). Des valeurs seuils épidémiologiques pour Aeromonas et Vibrio ont été établies en utilisant la méthode d’interprétation normalisée des données de résistance provenant de diffusion sur disque. La recherche de gènes de résistance associés au profil de résistance des isolats a été effectuée en utilisant des PCRs et des puces ADN. Le nombre d’isolats résistants aux divers antimicrobiens parmi les 201 isolats d’Aeromonas et les 185 isolats de Vibrio étaient respectivement les suivants: TET (n=24 et 10), FLO (n=1 et 0), SXT (n=2 et 8), NA (n=7 et 5) et ENO (n= 5 et 0). Diverses associations de gènes tet(A), tet(B), tet(E), floR, sul1, sul2, et intI1 ont été détectées, les gènes tet(E), intI1, sul2 et tet(B) étant les plus communs. Les espèces d’Aeromonas et de Vibrio isolées de poissons au détail et de fruits de mer peuvent héberger une variété de gènes de résistance, bien que peu fréquemment. Le risque que représente ces gènes de résistance reste à évaluer en considérant le potentiel infectieux des bactéries, l’utilisation des ces agents antimicrobiens pour le traitement des maladies en aquaculture et en médecine humaine et leur rôle en tant que réservoir de la résistance antimicrobienne. / Multiple studies have examined antimicrobial susceptibility in bacteria from aquacultured products microorganisms and their environment. However, no information is available concerning antimicrobial resistance in bacterial flora of fish and seafood available at the retail level in Canada. This is particularly true for the common aquatic commensals, Aeromonas and Vibrio, for which some species are known zoonotic pathogens. In the course of this study, the antimicrobial susceptibility among Aeromonas spp. and Vibrio spp. from domestic and imported fish and seafood was characterized. Aeromonas and Vibrio spp. isolates cultured from finfish and shrimp samples were evaluated for antimicrobial susceptibility by broth microdilution and/or disk diffusion techniques. Antimicrobial classes examined in detail included: tetracyclines (TET), folate pathway inhibitors (sulfadimethoxine-trimethoprim, SXT), florfenicol (FLO), and the quinolones (nalidixic acid / enrofloxacin, NA/ENO). Epidemiological cut-off values (ECV’s) for Aeromonas/Vibrio were established using normalized resistance interpretation (NRI) of disk diffusion data. Isolates were further examined by PCR and microarray for genes associated with their antimicrobial resistance. Of 201 Aeromonas and 185 Vibrio isolates, those classified as resistant were as follows, respectively: TET (n=24 and 10), FLO (n=1 and 0), SXT (n=2 and 8), NA (n=7 and 5) and ENO (n=5 and 0). Various combinations of tet(A), tet(B), tet(E), floR, sul1, sul2 and intI1 genes were detected with tet(E), intI1, sul2 and tet(B) being the most common. Vibrio and Aeromonas species isolated from retail fish and seafood sources can harbor a variety of resistance determinants, although their occurrence is not high. The risk represented by these resistances remains to be evaluated in view of the potential for bacterial infection and their role as a reservoir for antimicrobial resistance.

<p>The Okavango river flows from southern Angola, through the Kavango region of Namibia and into the Okavango Delta in Botswana. The recent peace in Angola hopefully marks the end of the intense suffering that the peoples of the river basin have endured, and the beginning of sustainable decision-making in the area. Informed decision-making however requires knowledge; and there is a need for, and a lack of knowledge regarding basin-wide land cover (LC) changes, and their causes, during the Angolan civil war in the basin. Furthermore, there is a need for, and a lack of knowledge on how expanding large-scale agriculture and urban growth along the Angola-Namibia border affects the water quality of the river.</p><p>The aim of this study was therefore to develop a remote sensing method applicable to the basin (with scant ground-truth data availability) to carry out a systematic historic study of LC changes during the Angolan civil war, to apply the method to the basin, to relate these changes to major societal trends in the region, and to analyse potential impacts of expanding large-scale agriculture and urban growth on the water quality of the river along the Angola-Namibia border.</p><p>A range of remote sensing methods to study historic LC changes in the basin were tried and evaluated against reference data collected during a field visit in Namibia in October 2005. Eventually, two methods were selected and applied to pre-processed Landsat MSS and ETM+ satellite image mosaics of 1973 and 2001 respectively: 1. a combined unsupervised classification and pattern-recognition change detection method providing quantified and geographically distributed binary LC class change trajectory information and, 2. an NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) change detection method providing quantified and geographically distributed continuous information on degrees of change in vegetation vigour. In addition, available documents and people initiated in the basin conditions were consulted in the pursuit of discerning major societal trends that the basin had undergone during the Angolan civil war. Finally, concentrations of nutrients (total phosphorous & total nitrogen), bacteria (faecal coliforms & faecal streptococci), conductivity, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature and Secchi depth were sampled at 11 locations upstream and downstream of large-scale agricultural facilities and an urban area during the aforementioned field visit.</p><p>The nature, extent and geographical distribution of LC changes in the study area during the Angolan civil war were determined. The study area (150 922 km²) was the Angolan and Namibian parts of the basin. The results indicate that the vegetation vigour is dynamic and has decreased overall in the area, perhaps connected with precipitation differences between the years. However while the vigour decreased in the northwest, it increased in the northeast, and on more local scales the pattern was often more complex. With respect to migration out of Angola into Namibia, the LC changes followed expectations of more intense use in Namibia close to the border (0-5 km), but not at some distance (10-20 km), particularly east of Rundu. With respect to urbanisation, expectations of increased human impact locally were observed in e.g. Rundu, Menongue and Cuito Cuanavale. Road deterioration was also observed with Angolan urbanisation but some infrastructures appeared less damaged by the war. Some villages (e.g. Savitangaiala de Môma) seem to have been abandoned during the war so that the vegetation could regenerate, which was expected. But other villages (e.g. Techipeio) have not undergone the same vegetation regeneration suggesting they were not abandoned. The areal extent of large-scale agriculture increased 59% (26 km²) during the war, perhaps as a consequence of population growth. But the expansion was not nearly at par with the population growth of the Kavango region (320%), suggesting that a smaller proportion of the population relied on the large-scale agriculture for their subsistence in 2001 compared with 1973.</p><p>No significant impacts were found from the large-scale agriculture and urbanisation on the water quality during the dry season of 2005. Total phosphorous concentrations (with range: 0.067-0.095 mg l^-1) did vary significantly between locations (p=0.013) but locations upstream and downstream of large-scale agricultural facilities were not significantly different (p=0.5444). Neither did faecal coliforms (range: 23-63 counts per 100ml) nor faecal streptococci (range: 8-33 counts per 100ml) vary significantly between locations (p=0.332 and p=0.354 respectively). Thus the impact of Rundu and the extensive livestock farming along the border were not significant at this time. The Cuito river on the other hand significantly decreased both the conductivity (range: 27.2-49.7 μS cm^-1, p<0.0001) and the total dissolved solid concentration (range: 12.7-23.4 mg l^-1, p<0.0001) of the mainstream of the Okavango during the dry season.</p><p>Land cover changes during the Angolan civil war, contributing causes and effects on water quality were studied in this research effort. Many of the obtained results can be used directly or with further application as a knowledge base for sustainable decision-making and management in the basin. Wisely used by institutions charged with that objective, the information can contribute to sustainable development and the ending of suffering and poverty for the benefit of the peoples of the Okavango and beyond.</p>