This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct or indirect expropriation. We focus on the so far unexplored effects of legal risk associated with BITs on sovereign creditworthiness. We find small unconditional effects of BITs on sovereign bond returns. Taking the heterogeneity of BITs and political regimes into account, we find robust and strong negative effects. In countries with high political risk of expropriation (measured by low executive constraints), we find that the implementation of investor-friendly BITs is associated with a significantly negative impact on sovereign bond returns, accounting for roughly 15% of bond returns’ standard deviation.

Risikopolitischer Investitionsschutz nimmt zur Förderung von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen (ADI) in Entwicklungsländern eine wichtige Funktion ein. Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert unterschiedliche Investitionsschutzinstrumente im internationalen Kapitalverkehr. Hierbei werden Schwerpunkte auf öffentliche Investitionsgarantien und -versicherungen gelegt, wobei das Instrumentarium der Multilateralen Investitions-Garantie-Agentur (MIGA) als Institution der Weltbankgruppe sowie das der Bundesrepublik Deutschland aufgrund ihrer führenden Stellungen als vorrangige Analysegegenstände dienen. Nach einer fundierten Darstellung der Versicherungssysteme werden diese miteinander verglichen. Ferner werden die MIGA und die Investitionsgarantien des Bundes hinsichtlich ihrer Mehrwerte und Grenzen untersucht. Unter Einbeziehung auch kritischer Aspekte zeigt die Arbeit Handlungsperspektive für die Versicherungssysteme auf, um ADI in Entwicklungsländern verstärkt zu fördern.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria’s ability to play a regional stabilizing role in the Gulf of Guinea is severely thwarted due to unresolved conflict in the Niger Delta. Stemming from agitation by local communities, it evolved from peaceful rallies into an armed insurgency with the youth as the vanguard, and the conflict has subsequently spread into neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Benin. The aim of this study was to analyse the conflict in the Niger Delta, southern Nigeria in order to assess its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea. Taking the form of a political risk analysis, a means of forecasting potential pitfalls for an investing client to mitigate or manage risk, the study postulated that a country specific risk analysis would not be sufficient to analyse an integrated system like the Gulf of Guinea. Many scholars have suggested that regional analysis has become more important than national. In the context of Africa contagion effects, the spill over, positive as well as negative from one country to another, casts doubt on the value of assessing only a country specific risk analysis. Taking this phenomenon into account, a regional risk index was created in order to assess the regional implications of the conflict in the Niger Delta. The index consists of six variables chosen from four political risk frameworks, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Business Environment Risk Intelligence, The Brink Model, and finally the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were chosen on their utility for regional political risk analysis and their status as major risk variables, universal risk variables employed by various risk frameworks. In the subsequent political risk analysis, the first four variables were rated as having a high risk while the latter two garnered a medium risk rating. As such the overall rating for the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea was found to be high. This study finds that conventional country specific risk models are still very much the preferred means of analysing risk, but that regional risk analysis would have to take a larger role in political risk analysis in the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië se vermoë om ‘n streeks-stabiliserende rol in die Golf van Guinea te speel, word ernstig gedwarsboom deur die onopgeloste konflik in die Niger Delta. Die oorsprong van die konflik in vreedsame gemeenskaplike protestaksie vir meer regverdige verdeling van olie inkomste het uitgekring na gewapende konflik, beide in die Delta self en in buurlande Kameroen, Ekwatoriale Guinee en Benin. Hierdie studie het gepoog om die konflik in die Nigeriese Delta te bestudeer om die impak van politieke risiko op die Golf van Guinea te assesseer. Die studie het die vorm van ‘n politieke risiko analise aangeneem, ‘n middel van vooruitskatting om potensiële valstrikke aan ‘n kliënt wat wil belê uit te wys om sodoende konflik te verlig of te beheer. Die studie veronderstel dat ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise onvoldoende is om ‘n geïntegreerde sisteem soos die Golf van Guinea te analiseer. Met menige akademici wat voorstel dat streeksanalise belangriker geword het as die nasionale, word daar in die konteks van die gevolge van Afrika-besmetting, die oorloop daarvan van een land na ‘n ander, positief sowel as negatief, ‘n skaduwee gegooi op die waarde van die assessering van slegs ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise. Met hierdie fenomeen in gedagte, is ‘n streek risiko inhoud geskep om die implikasies vir die konflik in die Niger Deltastreek, te assesseer. Die inhoud is saamgestel uit ‘n verskeidenheid van ses variante gekies uit vier politieke risiko raamwerke, nl die ‘Ekonomist Intelligence Unit’, die ‘Business Environment Risk Intelligence’, die ‘Brink Model’ en ook die ‘International Country Risk Guide’. Die variante is gebruik vir hulle waarde vir streekspolitieke risiko analise, asook die belangrikheid van hulle hoof risiko veranderlikheid, ‘n universele Hoof risiko variant wat gebruik word in verskillende risiko raamwerke. In die gevolglike politieke risiko-analise, is die vier variante beskou as ‘n baie hoë risiko, terwyl die laaste twee as medium risiko beskou word. Dus is die algemene taksering vir die politiese risiko in die Golf van Guinea baie hoog. Die studie vind uiteindelik dat lande se spesifieke risiko modelle steeds die verkose manier is om risiko’s te analiseer, alhoewel politieke risiko analise ‘n groter rol sal speel in toekomstige streek risiko analise.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Chinese national oil corporations have increased their foreign direct investments over the last decade in Africa, where the political environment of oil producing countries often expose the firms to high political risk. The analysis of political risk is increasingly relevant for the investment decision-making process of Chinese corporations, as changes in political dynamics of host countries can affect the opportunities and profitability of investments. The study emphasises the need for firm-specific political risk analysis as a decision-making tool for international businesses operating in foreign countries. The main research question of the study is concerned with the main indicators of political risk that Chinese corporations may face in the African oil and gas industry. Chinese oil corporations may be affected by political instability, international and internal conflict, corruption, and poor economic and social development in African countries. The political risk they face may be influenced by indicators such as the location of the oil operations, the relative importance of the Chinese oil firm to the host country’s oil industry, the competitive advantage and technical abilities of Chinese oil firms, the support of the Chinese government to state-owned firms, and economic relations that the host government have with China and the oil firm. The study follows a qualitative research approach by way of an empirical case study of the political risk faced by one of China’s national oil corporations, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in South Sudan. A major part of CNPC’s business operations in Sudan was transferred to South Sudan after the country seceded from Sudan in July 2011. The political risk for CNPC in South Sudan is analysed and measured in accordance with an industry-specific political risk model for the oil and gas industry. The study finds that CNPC faces a high level of political risk in South Sudan since independence. An examination of the political risk analysis is done to serve as a basis for answering the main research question. The hostile relationship between South Sudan and Sudan in particular may expose CNPC to high political risk as it led to the shutdown of the oil industry and violent interstate conflict. However, CNPC’s political risk exposure may be mitigated by certain indicators, such as CNPC’s significance in the operation of the South Sudanese oil industry, CNPC’s attributes of being a Chinese state-owned enterprise, the availability of support from the Chinese government in the form of economic cooperation packages and CNPC’s technical abilities in exploration operations. Furthermore, while negative sentiments on the part of the South Sudanese government towards China and CNPC due to the latter’s close relations with Sudan might expose CNPC to high risk, the risk is mitigated by the high level of economic dependency of South Sudan on both China and CNPC. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die laaste dekade het Chinese nasionale oliekorporasies hulle buitelandse direkte beleggings in Afrika uitgebrei. Die politieke omgewing van hierdie lande veroorsaak egter dikwels dat hierdie firmas aan hoë politieke risiko blootgestel word. Omdat politieke dinamiek in gasheerlande die geleenthede en winsgewendheid van beleggings kan affekteer, is die analise van politieke risiko toenemend relevant in die beleggingsbesluitnemingsproses van Chinese oliekorporasies. Die hoof-navorsingsvraag in hierdie studie handel oor die hoofindikatore van politieke risiko waaraan hierdie korporasies in Afrika se olie- en gasindustrie blootgestel kan word. Politieke onstabiliteit, internasionale en nasionale konflik, korrupsie, asook swak ekonomiese en sosiale ontwikkeling in Afrikalande kan Chinese oliekorporasies affekteer. Die politieke risiko waaraan hulle blootgestel word, kan beïnvloed word deur faktore soos die ligging van oliebedrywighede, die relatiewe belangrikheid van die Chinese oliekorporasie vir die gasheerland se olie-industrie, die kompeterende voordeel en tegniese vermoëns van die Chinese oliekorporasies, die Chinese regering se ondersteuning van staatskorporasies en die ekonomiese verhoudings wat die gasheerland met China en die oliefirmas het. Die studie volg ‘n kwalitatiewe navorsingsbenadering by wyse van ‘n empiriese gevallestudie van die politieke risiko waaraan een van China se nasionale oliekorporasies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in Suid-Soedan blootgestel word. Sedert Suid-Soedan se onafhanklikheidswording in Julie 2011 is die grootste gedeelte van CNPC se bedrywighede in Soedan na Suid-Soedan oorgedra. Die politieke risiko vir CNPC is volgens ‘n industrie-spesifieke politieke risiko-model geanaliseer en bereken. Die studie toon dat CNPC inderdaad aan ‘n hoë vlak van politieke risiko blootgestel is sedert onafhanklikheid. Die politieke risiko-analise word ondersoek ten einde as basis te dien vir die beantwoording van die hoof-navorsingsvraag. In die besonder kan die vyandiggesinde verhouding tussen Suid-Soedan en Soedan CNPC blootstel aan hoë politieke risiko, onder andere vanweë die sluiting van die olie-industrie en die gewelddadige interstaat-konflik wat dit meegebring het. CNPC se blootstelling aan politieke risiko kan egter verminder word deur sekere faktore soos CNPC se beduidende belangrikheid in die bedryf van die Suid-Soedanese olieindustrie, CNPC se kenmerke as ‘n Chinese staatsonderneming, die beskikbaarheid van die ondersteuning van die Chinese regering in die vorm van ekonomiese samewerkingspakette asook CNPC se tegniese vermoëns in die veld van eksplorasiebedrywighede. Alhoewel die negatiewe sentiment in die Suid-Soedanese regering teenoor China en CNPC as gevolg van hulle noue verbintenis met Soedan vir CNPC aan hoë risiko kan blootstel, word hierdie risiko verminder deur Suid-Soedan se hoë vlak van ekonomiese afhanklikheid van CNPC en China.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mozambique managed to attract a lot of foreign direct investment despite it being one of the poorest countries in the world and after it has been through a devastating 17 year civil war. GOP per capita in 1995 was about US$ 144 which was one of the lowest in the world. The country was faced with enormous challenges and risks in terms of both country and political risk. Major risks were associated with investment in that country because of prolonged civil war with no record of macro-economic stability. Despite these huge challenges, Mozambique managed to attract a lot of investment with Mozal 1 being the first big project post civil war. This paper analyses and quantifies where Mozambique was before and after mega projects. This is done by looking at where Mozambique was before Mozal 1 being the first mega project in the country post civil war. The analysis is in terms of political risk as it relates to cross border transactions with specific reference to a number of political risk indicators as suggested by Brink (2004) that prevailed and how the projects were structured to minimize risk. A political risk rating is developed for 1995 and 2005 using the Brink model to check if the project did improve the country's economic health. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mosambiek het daarin geslaag om grootskaalse direkte buitelandse investering te lok ten spyte van sy status as een van die wereld se armste lande en die verwoestende burgeroorlog wat 17 jaar geduur het. Die BBP per capita was ongeveer US$ 144 in 1995, wat dit een van die laagstes in die wereld gemaak het. Die land het enorme uitdagings en risiko's in die gesig gestaar in terme van die land en die politiek. Die hoofrisiko's het met investering verband gehou vanwee die langdurige burgeroorlog en geen makro-ekonomiese stabiliteit in die land se verlede nie. Ondanks hierdie reuse uitdagings het Mosambiek daarin geslaag om baie investering te lok, waarvan Mozal 1 die eerste megaprojek na die burgeroorlog was. Hierdie tesis analiseer en kwantifiseer Mosambiek se posisie voor en na megaprojekte. Dit is gedoen deur te kyk na hoe Mosambiek daar uitgesien het voor Mozal 1. Die analise is in terme van die verband tussen politieke risiko en oorgrenstransaksies gedoen. Daar word spesifiek verwys na 'n aantal aanwysers van politieke risiko, soos voorgestel deur Brink (2004), wat geheers het en hoe projekte gestruktureer is om risiko te verminder. 'n Gradering van politieke risiko is vir 1995 en 2005 aan die hand van Brink se model ontwikkel om te kontroleer of die projek die land se ekonomiese gesondheid verbeter het.

Research object – Risk of international settlements. The aim of this work is to analyze the process of the management of international settlements risk and foresee the opportunities of risk management in Lithuania. The set tasks for achieving the aim of this research: to introduce the understanding of international settlements risk; to set the kinds of international settlements risk; to set the process of the management of international settlements risk; to set the international settlements risk management means; to set the usage opportunities of these means in Lithuania. There are four kinds of international settlements risk described in this work: political, liquidity, currency rate range and economical risk. There are introduced means of risk management for every kind of risk in this work. There you can also find opportunities of usage of international settlements risk management in Lithuania. Research methods: analysis and synthesis of literature, logical analysis and synthesis, statistics analysis.

It is a sandwich Thesis. The first and the second essay are joint works with my Supervisor, Dr. Ronald Balvers. The third essay is joint work with Fangxing Liu, a Ph.D. candidate (Finance) at DeGroote School of Business, where we have equally shared the work responsibility. / First essay deals with Productivity shocks. Productivity shocks transmitted from productivity leaders to trailing sectors are systematic sources of risk. Global technology and knowledge diffusion leads to predictable patterns in productivity dynamics across countries and industries. Productivity gaps determine the level of exposure to the systematic leader productivity shocks. Firms in a country-industry with larger productivity gaps relative to the world leader are more dependent on the leader's innovations compared to their own productivity improvements. They thus have higher loadings on the leader productivity shocks and higher average stock returns. For OECD panel data, a country-industry's productivity gap significantly predicts the stock returns of the country-industry: holding the quintile of country- industry portfolios with the largest gaps and shorting the quintile with the smallest gaps generates annual returns of 9.8% (6.7% after risk adjustment with standard factors). A factor associated with the productivity gap explains country-industry portfolio returns substantially better than standard factor models. Loadings on leader-country-productivity shocks are found to have substantial correlation with productivity gaps, and leader productivity shocks are more important for stock returns than idiosyncratic productivity shocks. These findings suggest that the productivity gaps and associated higher average returns are indeed tied to systematic risk. The second essay deals with Technology shocks. Technology shocks from technological frontier economies are a critical determinant of productivity shocks. These shocks spill over, pervading all lagging economies and are true systematic shocks. A country's aggregate technology gap with the frontier determines the potential for the systematic innovation shocks to affect it, but the country's absorption capacity determines its effective sensitivity to these shocks. We find conforming evidence that the technology gap, R&D intensity, and absorption capacity can explain stock returns. For OECD panel data, a one standard deviation increase in the technology gap increases excess stock returns by 0.578 percent per month. A one standard deviation increase in R&D intensity increases the excess return by 0.637 percent per month. An increase in absorption capacity of one standard deviation increases the excess return by 0.275 percent per month. When global FF factors are included, the results are diluted, which suggests that the FF factors may alias for the three variables associated with the systematic risk arising from frontier technology shocks. The third essay deals with Political risk. We find that the differences in Hassan et al. (2019) political Risk proxy derived from text processing of analyst transcripts can price cross-sectional returns after controlling for standard factor risks. A mimicking factor for the political risk measure, when added to the standard Fama French 5 factor model or the Q5 model, explains the test asset returns better than these models. In our limited sample, the changes in PRisk measure captures more information about political risk than the traditional measures from Baker et al. (2016), which suggests that one can start using changes in PRisk characteristic as a political risk proxy. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Political risk analysis is considered one of the essential ingredients in decision making processes when investing abroad. The Iranian Revolution and the oil crisis in the 1970s accentuated this need as investors increasingly felt the need for a proper assessment of the risks involved in establishing a business in other countries. Negative images of African countries combined with conventional risk models which are not able to accurately assess the political risk realities of post-conflict African countries, may be one of the reasons for why African countries struggle to attract a substantial amount of FDI. This study suggests that alternative risk models which are more African-orientated may aid in improving this situation. This study has analysed the political risk of Sierra Leone using a conventional risk model, and an African-orientated political risk model. The aim of this study was to assess whether conventional political risk models need to be adjusted to be able to more accurately assess the political risk of post-conflict African countries. The main research question guiding this study was:  Are conventional risk models able to objectively rate the political risk of post-conflict countries in Africa? The conclusion of this research was that African-orientated political risk models are able to more accurately assess the political risk of a post-conflict African country such as Sierra Leone. This is mainly due to the soft variables used in a political risk model and also the relationship between the variables included in the models. The African-orientated political risk model needs to be analysed further, but this research has made clear the need for a reevaluation of existing political risk models to be better equipped when analysing post-conflict African countries. This will not only benefit African post-conflict countries in improving their risk ratings, but also provide foreign investors with a more accurate identification of the potential political risks facing an investment in post-conflict African countries. It was acknowledged in this study that the political risk analyses of Sierra Leone were not conducted by someone who has inside information of the political risk models used which is a limitation iii for the results of this study. It is, however, possible to detect potential weaknesses with each political risk model and possible areas of improvements. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Politieke Risiko Analise word as een van die belangrikste bestandele in die besluitnemingsproses geag wanneer daar oorsee belê word. Die Iranese Rewolusie en die Olie krisis in die 1970’s het hierdie nood beklemtoon, aangesien beleggers toenemend die belang van deurdagte assesering van die risikos in verband met die oprigting en instandhouding van besighede in ander lande erken het. Negatiewe opvattings van Afrika lande, tesame met konventionele risiko modelle wat nie geskik is on akkurate asseserings van politike risiko realiteite op te lewer, is dalk van die redes waarom Afrika lande sukkel om groot Direkte Buitelandse Beleggings te lok. Hierdie studie stel voor dat alternatiewe risiko modelle wat meer Afrika-gesind van aard is die situasie kan help oorbrug. Hierdie studie het die politieke risiko situasie van die Sierra Leone analiseer aangaande‘n konvensionele riskio model en met behulp van’n Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko model. Die studie het gepoog om te assesseer of die konvensionele modelle van politieke risiko gewysig moet word om in staat te wees om meer akkuraat te oordeel in verband met politieke risiko in post-konflik Afrika lande. Die hoof navorsingsvraag wat die studie gedryf het is die volgende: Is die konvensionele risiko modelle in staat om objektief te werk te gaan om die politieke risiko van post-konflik lande in Afrika te meet? Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie navorsing is dat die Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko modelle meer gepas is om die politike risiko van post-konflik lande soos Sierra Leone te meet. Dit is hoofsaaklik die geval weens die sagte veranderlikes wat gebruik word in’n politieke risiko model asook die verband tussen die veranderlikes wat in die model ingesluit word. Die Afrika-georienteerde politieke risiko model moet verder uitgebrei word, alhoewel hierdie navorsing dit duidelik maak dat die belang bestaan vir‘n herevaluering van die bestaande politieke risiko modelle om beter toegerus te wees om analise van post-konflik Afrika lande uit te voer. Dit word erken dat hierdie studie van die politieke risiko van Sierra Leone nie uitgevoer was deur iemand wat‘n intieme kennis van politieke risiko modelle het nie. Dit is uiteindelik wel moontlik on potensiele swak plekke in die mondering van elke politieke risiko model uit te sonder, en moontlike areas van verbetering voor te stel.

This thesis emphasizes the role of political risk in international business by analyzing the impact of political events on the valuation of firms. The guiding question is how governments interfere with the business interests of firms located in their own country as well as with the business interests of firms from other nations, as a consequence of the application of international sanctions. Therefore, the focus is on multi-country and multi-sector effects due to the occurrence of specific sanction events. The empirical methodology is the event-study approach, which analyzes stock market reactions to new information. The research objective is to detect abnormal stock returns across multiple markets and sectors, as a consequence of events related to the imposition of or threat of international sanctions. The empirical model of this thesis differentiates between risk-effects for firms located in the sender country (i.e., the origin of sanctions), for firms located in or specifically related to target countries (i.e., the receiver of sanctions) and firms located in third countries (i.e., countries not directly involved). There are three different cases analyzed: E.U. Economic Sanctions against African countries (2002-2005), the U.S. Steel Tariff (2002) and the Iran Sanctions Act (2007). The cases represent sanctions applied on the nationwide, sector- and firm-specific level. The event studies provide empirical evidence for the existence of political risk-effects due to sector-specific sanctions. Risk-effects are detected for firms in target countries and for firms in the sender country itself. The applied political risk framework describes how political risk affects multinational firm value and explains that it varies among firms. The impact of political risk on a firm's value depends on the risk exposure of a firm's individual business interests to it. This contributes a new perspective on political risk that emphasizes multinational and multi-sectoral effects and underlines that a specific political risk can be relevant for a variety of different international business interests. (author's abstract)

The intent of the thesis is to ascertain whether mitigation of political risk to the IT industry in Panama can be of value to the country by improving the economy and standard of living.