房屋預售制度是國內不動產業的一大特色，而長期以來國內對房價的研究皆著重於成屋價格，且大都以特徵價格法分析成屋價格屬性，對預售屋價格的形成及成屋與預售屋彼此價格相互影響一直缺乏深入的研究。造成政府管理及業者經營上的困擾，也直接威脅到購屋的權益，因此透過預售屋價格理論層次的探討，將有助於學術界對房屋預售制度的暸解。 由於房屋預售的交易標的為土地及房屋預售契約，而此約定於未來特定時間交貨之契約買賣形式，基本上即具有遠期交易與期貨的性質。因此本文利用儲存理論於無套利均衡的情形下，依序考慮有無不動產市場景氣變動與預售屋產品風險，來加以推演預售屋價格，最後導出預售屋訂價模式為成屋價格加成屋的持有成本，減預售屋的履約保證費用，加上預期景氣變動價差。模式中預售屋產品風險及市場景氣變動因素的考慮，為本研究學術上的主要貢獻。 進一步利用特徵價格方程式來固定品質，使成屋與預售屋在相同的基礎上比較，並藉由太平洋房屋所提供之民國77年∼82年大台北都會區實際成交案例8885筆來試驗。發現期間預售屋每戶價格平均比成屋高出33．08萬，即就大台北都會區的房屋市場而言，購屋者於此期間選購成屋較有利、比較各年之預售屋與成屋價格，除77年之基差為負以外， 78年∼82年的基差都大於零，其中基差變動的原因，可由本研究所建立之理論模式來加以詮釋。最後應用理論模式來分析房屋市場的基差，說明國內預售屋價格大多高於成屋價格的原因，並詮釋理論模式的政策意涵，與對購屋決策及建商經營的應用。 / The pre-sales housing system in Taiwan is a quite unique method allowing home buyers to speculate on or purchase their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicator of the housing cycle in the market. However, limited knowledge is availab1e regarding how and why pre-sales house prices are determined, or what is the relationshiP between the pre-sales and existing house prices. 　 Determining Whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can account for the pre-sales house pricing behavior is highly desired since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales syStem is its similarity to forwqrd of futures transactions. In this study, an arbitrage perspective is used to discuss the difference (basis ) between pre-sales and existing house prices. Based on the storage theory, a pricing model suitable for pre-sales houses in Taiwan was established steP by step under the considerations of the presence of expected market changes, and the risk of product uncertainty in pre-sales houses.The price of pre-sales houses is equal to the price of existing houses on the transaction date plus the carry cost, and the price difference resulted from expected market changes minus the contract guarantee cost. The established model was then used to analyze the 8885 actual transaction cases provided by the Pacific Rehouse during l988 and l993. We used hedonic price. theory to analyze the differences between pre-sales and existing house price. As far as the overall market is concerned, the analysis found that the difference between the pre-sales house price on the transaction date and the price of the existing house was NT$330,800/unit. The basis was positive in l988 and negative during l989 and l993. By the pricing modeL, we can explain the price of pre-sales houses was greater then that of existing housing in most cases. The results of our research also can be applied to the real estate policy and the decision of purchasing house.

本研究旨在分析影響自住型預售屋客戶滿意度的關鍵因素及探討有效提高自住型預售屋客戶滿意度的作法。內容主要分成三個部份：第一、從過去的文獻中探討顧客滿意度的定義，並在房地產市場中找出能夠有效提升顧客滿意度的方式；第二、以需求為導向，藉由H建設公司的問卷調查資料中，分析出能夠有效影響自住型預售屋客戶滿意度的關鍵因素；第三、以策略行銷分析的觀點探討能夠有效提升上述關鍵因素的作法。 研究結果指出，經由因素分析萃取出的「重視外觀與設計」、「重視交易過程的觀感」、「重視基本設備的品質」、「重視事後相關服務承諾的兌現」以及「重視高檔周邊設備」等五個潛在因子中，交易過程的觀感對於四個評估客戶滿意度的影響最為顯著，其次則為事後服務承諾的兌現和外觀與設計。根據邱志聖 (2010)之策略行銷架構，業者若要有效提高現今顧客的滿意度，首先要注重的就是外顯單位效益成本以及道德危機成本的改善。 最後，本研究依據策略行銷分析架構所整理出的研究結論，提出了若干實務操作上之建議，以改善自住型預售屋客戶的外顯單位效益成本與道德危機成本，使得顧客滿意度能夠達到有效的提升。 / This study aims to analyze the impact of the key factors of self-used presale house customer satisfaction and to find out effective ways to improve self-used presale house customer satisfaction. The context would mainly be divided into three parts: first, to discuss the definition of customer satisfaction from the literature from the past, and to find out that the real estate market can effectively improve the way of customer satisfaction; Second, the demand-driven by one construction company in the questionnaire survey data, the analysis can effectively influence the key factors of self-used presale house customer satisfaction; third, use the analysis of strategic marketing point of view to discuss these key factors which can effectively enhance the practice. The study results indicate the following five potential factors which are "pay attention to the appearance and design" extracted by factor analysis, "pay attention to the feeling of the transaction process, "pay attention to the quality of basic equipment", "great importance after the related services promised to honor" and "emphasis on high-end peripherals.". The perception of the transaction process for the four assessment of the impact of customer satisfaction, the most significant, followed by subsequent pledge to honor, as well as appearance and design. According to Pro.Jyh-Shen Chiou (2010), strategic marketing framework, if the industry expects to improve current customer satisfaction, the most two important things are to pay attention to C1（buyer cost/buyer utility）and C3（the cost of moral hazard）. Finally, the basis of the research is to use strategic marketing analysis framework to sort out the conclusions of the study. Furthermore, it presents a number of practical operating recommendations to improve the effectiveness of self-used presale house customer's buyer cost/buyer utility and the cost of moral hazard, making customer satisfaction can achieve effective upgrade.