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The objectives of the research study are to review existing subnational credit rating methodologies and their applicability in the South African context, to develop the quantitative parts of credit rating methodologies for two provincial departments (Department of Health and Department of Education) that best predict future payment behaviour, to test the appropriateness of the proposed methodologies and to construct the datasets needed. The literature study includes background information regarding the uniqueness of South Africa’s provinces and credit rating methodologies in general. This is followed by information on subnational credit rating methodologies, including a review of existing subnational credit rating methodologies and an assessment of the applicability of the information provided in the South African context. Lastly, the applicable laws and regulations within the South African regulatory framework are provided. The knowledge gained from the literature study is applied to the data that have been collected to predict the two departments’ future payment behaviour. Linear regression modelling is used to identify the factors that best predict future payment behaviour and to assign weights to the identified factors in a scientific manner. The resulting payment behaviour models can be viewed as the quantitative part of the credit ratings. This is followed by a discussion on further investigations to improve the models. The developed models (both the simple and the advanced models) are tested with regard to prediction accuracies using RAG (Red, Amber or Green) statuses. This is followed by recommendations regarding future model usage that conclude that the department-specific models outperform the generic models in terms of prediction accuracies. / PhD (Risk analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

The objectives of the research study are to review existing subnational credit rating methodologies and their applicability in the South African context, to develop the quantitative parts of credit rating methodologies for two provincial departments (Department of Health and Department of Education) that best predict future payment behaviour, to test the appropriateness of the proposed methodologies and to construct the datasets needed. The literature study includes background information regarding the uniqueness of South Africa’s provinces and credit rating methodologies in general. This is followed by information on subnational credit rating methodologies, including a review of existing subnational credit rating methodologies and an assessment of the applicability of the information provided in the South African context. Lastly, the applicable laws and regulations within the South African regulatory framework are provided. The knowledge gained from the literature study is applied to the data that have been collected to predict the two departments’ future payment behaviour. Linear regression modelling is used to identify the factors that best predict future payment behaviour and to assign weights to the identified factors in a scientific manner. The resulting payment behaviour models can be viewed as the quantitative part of the credit ratings. This is followed by a discussion on further investigations to improve the models. The developed models (both the simple and the advanced models) are tested with regard to prediction accuracies using RAG (Red, Amber or Green) statuses. This is followed by recommendations regarding future model usage that conclude that the department-specific models outperform the generic models in terms of prediction accuracies. / PhD (Risk analysis), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Network traffic exhibits a high level of variability over short periods of time. This variability impacts negatively on the performance (accuracy) of anomaly-based network Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) that are built using predictive models in a batch-learning setup. This thesis investigates how adapting the discriminating threshold of model predictions, specifically to the evaluated traffic, improves the detection rates of these Intrusion Detection models. Specifically, this thesis studied the adaptability features of three well known Machine Learning algorithms: C5.0, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of these algorithms to adapt their prediction thresholds was assessed and analysed under different scenarios that simulated real world settings using the prospective sampling approach. A new dataset (STA2018) was generated for this thesis and used for the analysis. This thesis has demonstrated empirically the importance of threshold adaptation in improving the accuracy of detection models when training and evaluation (test) traffic have different statistical properties. Further investigation was undertaken to analyse the effects of feature selection and data balancing processes on a model's accuracy when evaluation traffic with different significant features were used. The effects of threshold adaptation on reducing the accuracy degradation of these models was statistically analysed. The results showed that, of the three compared algorithms, Random Forest was the most adaptable and had the highest detection rates. This thesis then extended the analysis to apply threshold adaptation on sampled traffic subsets, by using different sample sizes, sampling strategies and label error rates. This investigation showed the robustness of the Random Forest algorithm in identifying the best threshold. The Random Forest algorithm only needed a sample that was 0.05% of the original evaluation traffic to identify a discriminating threshold with an overall accuracy rate of nearly 90% of the optimal threshold.

Power and Generator Transformers are important and expensive elements of a power system. Inadvertent failure of Power Transformers would cause long interruption in power supply with consequent loss of reliability and revenue to the supply utilities. The mineral oil impregnated paper, OIP, is an insulation of choice in large power transformers in view of its excellent dielectric and other properties, besides being relatively inexpensive. During the normal working regime of the transformer, the insulation thereof is subjected to various stresses, the more important among them are, electrical, thermal, mechanical and chemical. Each of these stresses, appearing singly, or in combination, would lead to a time variant deterioration in the properties of insulation, called Ageing. This normal and inevitable process of degradation in the several essential properties of the insulation is irreversible, is a non-Markov physico-chemical reaction kinetic process. The speed or the rapidity of insulation deterioration is a very strong function of the magnitude of the stresses and the duration over which they acted. This is further compounded, if the stresses are in synergy. During the processes of ageing, some, or all the vital properties undergo subtle changes, more often, not in step with the duration of time over which the damage has been accumulated. Often, these changes are non monotonic, thus presenting a random or a chaotic picture and understanding the processes leading to eventual failure becomes difficult. But, there is some order in this chaos, in that, the time average of the changes over short intervals of time, seems to indicate some degree of predictability. The status of insulation at any given point in time is assessed by measuring such of those properties as are sensitive to the amount of ageing and comparing it with earlier measurements. This procedure, called the Diagnostic or nondestructive Testing, has been in vogue for some time now. Of the many parameters used as sensitive indices of the dynamics of insulation degradation, temporal changes in temperatures at different locations in the body of the transformer, more precisely, the winding hot spots (HST) and top oil temperature (TOT) are believed to give a fairly accurate indication of the rate of degradation. Further, an accurate estimation of the temperatures would enable to determine the loading limit (loadability) of power transformer. To estimate the temperature rise reasonably accurately, one has to resort to classical mathematical techniques involving formulation and solution of boundary value problem of heat conduction under carefully prescribed boundary conditions. Several complications are encountered in the development of the governing equations for the emergent heat transfer problems. The more important among them are, the inhomogeneous composition of the insulation structure and of the conductor, divergent flow patterns of the oil phase and inordinately varying thermal properties of conductor and insulation. Validation and reconfirmation of the findings of the thermal models can be made using state of the art methods, such as, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Over the years, different criteria have been prescribed for the prediction of terminal or end of life (EOL) of equipment from the standpoint of its insulation. But, thus far, no straightforward and unequivocal criterion is forth coming. Calculation of elapsed life in line with the existing methodology, given by IEEE, IEC, introduces unacceptable degrees of uncertainty. It is needless to say that, any conformal procedure proposed in the accurate prediction of EOL, has to be based on a technically feasible and economically viable consideration. A systematic study for understanding the dynamical nature of ageing in transformers in actual service is precluded for reasons very well known. Laboratory experiments on prototypes or pro-rated units fabricated based on similarity studies, are performed under controlled conditions and at accelerated stress levels to reduce experimental time. The results thereof can then be judiciously extrapolated to normal operating conditions and for full size equipment. The terms of reference of the present work are as follows; 1. Computation of TOT and HST Theoretical model based on Boundary Value Problem of Heat Conduction Application of AI Techniques 2. Experimental Investigation for estimating the Elapsed Life of transformers Based on the experimental investigation a semi-empirical expression has been developed to estimate the loss of life of power and station transformer by analyzing gas content and furfural dissolved in oil without performing off-line and destructive tests.

<p dir="ltr">Digital soil mapping (DSM) combines field and laboratory data with environmental factors to predict soil properties. The accuracy of these predictions depends on factors such as model selection, data quality and quantity, and landscape characteristics. In our study, we investigated the impact of sample density and the use of various environmental covariates (ECs) including slope, topographic position index, topographic wetness index, multiresolution valley bottom flatness, and multiresolution ridge top flatness, as well as the spatial resolution of these ECs on the predictive accuracy of four predictive models; Cubist (CB), Random Forest (RF), Regression Kriging (RK), and Ordinary Kriging (OK). Our analysis was conducted at three sites in Indiana: the Purdue Agronomy Center for Research and Education (ACRE), Davis Purdue Agriculture Center (DPAC), and Southeast Purdue Agricultural Center (SEPAC). Each site had its unique soil data sampling designs, management practices, and topographic conditions. The primary focus of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of soil properties, including soil organic matter (SOM), cation exchange capacity (CEC), and clay content, at different depths (0-10cm, 0-15cm, and 10-30cm) by utilizing five environmental covariates and four spatial resolutions for the ECs (1-1.5 m, 5 m, 10 m, and 30 m).</p><p dir="ltr">Various evaluation metrics, including R², root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), concordance coefficient (pc), and bias, were used to assess prediction accuracy. Notably, the accuracy of predictions was found to be significantly influenced by the site, sample density, model type, soil property, and their interactions. Sites exhibited the largest source of variation, followed by sampling density and model type for predicted SOM, CEC, and clay spatial distribution across the landscape.</p><p dir="ltr">The study revealed that the RF model consistently outperformed other models, while OK performed poorly across all sites and properties as it only relies on interpolating between the points without incorporating the landscape characteristics (ECs) in the algorithm. Increasing sample density improved predictions up to a certain threshold (e.g., 66 samples at ACRE for both SOM and CEC; 58 samples for SOM and 68 samples for CEC at SEPAC), beyond which the improvements were marginal. Additionally, the study highlighted the importance of spatial resolution, with finer resolutions resulting in better prediction accuracy, especially for SOM and clay content. Overall, comparing data from the two depths (0-10cm vs 10-30cm) for soil properties predications, deeper soil layer data (10-30cm) provided more accurate predictions for SOM and clay while shallower depth data (0-10cm) provided more accurate predictions for CEC. Finally, higher spatial resolution of ECs such as 1-1.5 m and 5 m contributed to more accurate soil properties predictions compared to the coarser data of 10 m and 30 m resolutions.</p><p dir="ltr">In summary, this research underscores the significance of informed decisions regarding sample density, model selection, and spatial resolution in digital soil mapping. It emphasizes that the choice of predictive model is critical, with RF consistently delivering superior performance. These findings have important implications for land management and sustainable land use practices, particularly in heterogeneous landscapes and areas with varying management intensities.</p>