How does the level of clientelistic distribution effect the risk of violent challenges towards the state in democracies? The relationship between democracy and violent conflict has been extensively tested, with diverging results. Utilizing time-series data from 162 independent democratic states ranging from 1946 to 2018, the relationship is here tested by separating the informal institutions of democracy from the formal. And running the level of clientelistic distribution, a conflicting informal institution, as the independent variable in a linear probability model. Which shows that an increase in the level of clientelism significantly increases the risk of violent challenges.

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Das vorliegende Skript ist aus dem Lehrveranstaltungszyklus Theorie und Methodik der Statistik hervorgegangen, den ich an der Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften der TU Dresden im Hauptstudium der Diplomstudiengänge und in den Masterstudiengängen gehalten habe. Es gibt 16 ältere Auflagen, die während mehr als 15 Jahren kontinuierlich überarbeitet, erweitert und korrigiert wurden. Für Hinweise auf Fehler und für Erweiterungs- und Verbesserungsvorschläge danke ich mehreren Studenten und allen Mitarbeitern, die in dieser Zeit am Lehrstuhl für Quantitative Verfahren, insbesondere Statistik beschäftigt waren. Die 30 Kapitel verteilen sich auf die fünf Teile Grundlagen, Schätzen und Testen, Korrelation und Regression, Stochastische Prozesse und Multivariate Verfahren, die jeweils Grundlage einer Lehrveranstaltung waren. Viele Kapitel haben einen abschließenden Abschnitt "Weiterführendes" mit zusätzlichem und ergänzendem Material, das in der Vorlesung nicht behandelt wurde, sowie zusätzlichen Eräauterungen, Beispielen und Anmerkungen. Zur verwendeten Notation und zu mathematischen Grundlagen siehe Anhang A.

Aim of this diploma thesis is to provide empirical tests of market efficiency of tennis wagering market. In large dataset, which consists of nearly 47 thousands matches and 225 thousands odds, I am searching for anomalies, which can prove market inefficiency. Potentially profitable and exploitable betting strategies are also examined. Main tools of empirical analysis are linear probability models and logit models. Favorit-longshot bias is present in my data, this finding is consistent with results of other empirical works (Lahvička, 2013; Cain, Law, Peel, 2000). Major contribution of this paper is confirmation of home-away bias, the issue, which was not tested in tennis matches so far. The same holds for chart-bias. I am not able to find profitable wagering rules based on out-of-sample predictions of my models. Simple betting rule, which consists of betting systematically on overwhelming favorites, is derived from historical odds. This strategy yields a profit 0,0094, but it's applicability is very limited.

he thesis deals with proposal of an algorithm and implementation of a program that tracks a motion of the heart muscle in the captured ultrasound video of the heart. The point position estimation is calculated by optical flow method. The Active Shape Model method is used to confirm the accuracy of point's position tracking. The user annotates desired structure of the heart arch first and the application displays new points which represent a new deformed heart shape.

Das vorliegende Skript ist aus dem Lehrveranstaltungszyklus Theorie und Methodik der Statistik hervorgegangen, den ich an der Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften der TU Dresden im Hauptstudium der Diplomstudiengänge und in den Masterstudiengängen gehalten habe. Es gibt 16 ältere Auflagen, die während mehr als 15 Jahren kontinuierlich überarbeitet, erweitert und korrigiert wurden. Für Hinweise auf Fehler und für Erweiterungs- und Verbesserungsvorschläge danke ich mehreren Studenten und allen Mitarbeitern, die in dieser Zeit am Lehrstuhl für Quantitative Verfahren, insbesondere Statistik beschäftigt waren. Die 30 Kapitel verteilen sich auf die fünf Teile Grundlagen, Schätzen und Testen, Korrelation und Regression, Stochastische Prozesse und Multivariate Verfahren, die jeweils Grundlage einer Lehrveranstaltung waren. Viele Kapitel haben einen abschließenden Abschnitt "Weiterführendes" mit zusätzlichem und ergänzendem Material, das in der Vorlesung nicht behandelt wurde, sowie zusätzlichen Eräauterungen, Beispielen und Anmerkungen. Zur verwendeten Notation und zu mathematischen Grundlagen siehe Anhang A.

There are ongoing discussions about a new reform of the mandatory fully funded individual accounts in the Swedish public pension system. Since the initial round in 2000, several funds have been excluded from the platform due to deceptive, and sometimes criminal, behavior towards the consumers. This paper analyzes which individuals that have invested in these funds, examines possible explanations for this, and sheds light on the current structure of the Premium Pension Scheme. By using a rich dataset on 650,000 individuals that consist of both those who have been in six particular dubious funds and a random sample of the rest of the Swedish pension savers, the variables of interest are evaluated in a logistic setting. The results show that individuals who are men, unmarried, divorced, in their older-middle age, have lower-incomes, live in rural areas, and the North of Sweden are more likely to have invested in one of the dubious funds. The results also reveal that some funds have clearer target-groups, while others have targeted more randomly. The study emphasizes the need for improving people’s financial decision-making through improved information.

This paper analyzes how the explained and unexplained part of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition has changed due to a shift in attitudes towards immigrants in Germany. We use the migration crisis in 2015 as an exogenous source of variation in attitudes towards immigrants. As many studies analyze labor market discrimination, there are very few studies examining discrimination in the German labor market by conducting a natural experiment. In contrast to previous empirics, this paper sets out to explain and decompose the differences between immigrants and natives using a rather unique method. This paper is based on data from the European Social Survey (ESS) conducted in 2014 and 2016 and is analyzed using measures of public attitudes, the linear probability model, and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The results indicate that there are rather great differences in employment probabilities, human capital and family constellations between immigrants and natives. Measuring public attitudes, it is evident that there has been a general decline in positive attitudes towards immigrants post the migration crisis in 2015. Analyzing the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, it is evident that the unexplained (discriminatory) part of the decomposition has decreased which is referred to as a decrease in discrimination in the labor market. Even though that a general decline in positive attitudes towards immigrants is present, an increase in the unexplained part of the decomposition is not observed. As no correlation between public attitudes and the unexplained part of the decomposition is apparent, it is most likely that employers base their employment decision on the extent of information provided. This indicating that discrimination in the labor market most likely is due to statistical discrimination and not due to the preferences of the employer.

Long time ago, there were developed methods which can allow fast exchange of information at the longest distance possible. Until recent time, the possibilities of long way communications were very limited. There were technological and financial limitations mainly. With telegraph, telephone and the newest – computer networks invention, the telecommunication services became cheaper and much more comprehensive. With accession and high scale spread of internet, the role of communications is much more important. The most actual trend is mobile internet and connected multimedia networks and their instant accessibility from anywhere. On the first side there are classical telecommunication networks as GSM, UMTS, on the other side there is very strong alternative in shape of WiMAX and WiFi networks combination. For the usage of multimedia services in that networks is very important to handle their prefferization over other traffic, which is very difficult task even on wireless media. For the finding of new processes and methods, which can allow it, there is, at fist, the need for highly accurate and authentic mathematical models. In this doctoral thesis is mapped actual state of the art and proposed the new mathematical model of Distribution Coordination Function, which is much-frequent used as access method in 802.11 networks, Wi-Fi.

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