<p>This thesis comprises two papers exploring aspects of public finance and environmental economics in Namibia.</p><p>Paper [I] estimates the shadow prices of capital, labour and foreign exchange for the Namibian economy. The results suggest that the shadow price of capital for Namibia is 8%. The economic costs of Namibian labour, as a share of financial costs, are 32% for urban semi- and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi- and unskilled labour. The economic cost of foreign labour as a share of financial costs is 59%. The estimated range for the shadow exchange rate factor is between 7% and 14% for the Namibian economy.</p><p>Paper [II] studies the determinants of property prices in the township areas of Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. The study reveals that properties located close to an environmental hazard, such as a garbage dump, sell at considerable discounts. On the other hand properties located near an environmentally favourable location, such as recreational open space, sell at a premium. These results provide evidence of the importance of environmental quality in lower income property markets in developing countries. It is therefore important for Namibian urban planners to incorporate environmental quality within the planning framework for lower income areas.</p>

<p>How can a multi project organisation use Wiki to support improvement of knowledge management and project evaluation to become a learning organisation? The main purpose of this thesis is to give management and employees a better understanding of how Wiki supports knowledge management and project evaluation. The second purpose is to illustrate possible difficulties and pit falls that comes with the implementation of Wiki based learning. The theoretical framework initiates by explaining multi project organizations, then describes Argyris and Schöns theories about organizational learning and learning organizations. The second half of the theory chapter brings up theories about important areas for a learning organization. We have used a qualitative approach to gather profound data for the study. The empirical framework presents the fallout of the interviews we had with the studied company. Our study demonstrates how Wikis can be a great support to improve knowledge management and project evaluation. A Wiki functions as a knowledge repository that integrates divisions in an organization and facilitates to take part of, document and share knowledge. The study also demonstrates that problems can occur when implementing a Wiki. This is shown by managerial resistance due to the attitude towards knowledge management and an uncertainty about quality control of a Wiki’s content. To answer this resistance the employees can suggest a demonstration where they during a period of time use Wiki to describe when it could have benefited them in the daily activities. To be follow up with a trialperiod if the outcome is successful.</p>

This thesis comprises two papers exploring aspects of public finance and environmental economics in Namibia. Paper [I] estimates the shadow prices of capital, labour and foreign exchange for the Namibian economy. The results suggest that the shadow price of capital for Namibia is 8%. The economic costs of Namibian labour, as a share of financial costs, are 32% for urban semi- and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi- and unskilled labour. The economic cost of foreign labour as a share of financial costs is 59%. The estimated range for the shadow exchange rate factor is between 7% and 14% for the Namibian economy. Paper [II] studies the determinants of property prices in the township areas of Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. The study reveals that properties located close to an environmental hazard, such as a garbage dump, sell at considerable discounts. On the other hand properties located near an environmentally favourable location, such as recreational open space, sell at a premium. These results provide evidence of the importance of environmental quality in lower income property markets in developing countries. It is therefore important for Namibian urban planners to incorporate environmental quality within the planning framework for lower income areas.

How can a multi project organisation use Wiki to support improvement of knowledge management and project evaluation to become a learning organisation? The main purpose of this thesis is to give management and employees a better understanding of how Wiki supports knowledge management and project evaluation. The second purpose is to illustrate possible difficulties and pit falls that comes with the implementation of Wiki based learning. The theoretical framework initiates by explaining multi project organizations, then describes Argyris and Schöns theories about organizational learning and learning organizations. The second half of the theory chapter brings up theories about important areas for a learning organization. We have used a qualitative approach to gather profound data for the study. The empirical framework presents the fallout of the interviews we had with the studied company. Our study demonstrates how Wikis can be a great support to improve knowledge management and project evaluation. A Wiki functions as a knowledge repository that integrates divisions in an organization and facilitates to take part of, document and share knowledge. The study also demonstrates that problems can occur when implementing a Wiki. This is shown by managerial resistance due to the attitude towards knowledge management and an uncertainty about quality control of a Wiki’s content. To answer this resistance the employees can suggest a demonstration where they during a period of time use Wiki to describe when it could have benefited them in the daily activities. To be follow up with a trialperiod if the outcome is successful.

As transportation funding becomes increasingly constrained, it is imperative that decision makers invest precious resources wisely and effectively. Transportation planners need effective tools for anticipating outcomes (or ranges of outcomes) in order to select preferred project alternatives and evaluate funding options for competing projects. To this end, this thesis work describes multiple applications of a new Project Evaluation Toolkit (PET) for highway project assessment. The PET itself was developed over a two-year period by the thesis author, in conjunction with Dr. Kara Kockelman, Dr. Chi Xie, and some support by others, as described in Kockelman et al. (2010) and the PET Users Guidebook (Fagnant et al. 2011). Using just link-level traffic counts (and other parameter values, if users wish to change defaults), PET quickly estimates how transportation network changes impact traveler welfare (consisting of travel times and operating costs), travel time reliability, crashes, and emissions. Summary measures (such as net present values and benefit-cost ratios) are developed over multi-year/long-term horizons to quantify the relative merit of project scenarios. This thesis emphasizes three key topics: a background and description of PET, case study evaluations using PET, and sensitivity analysis (under uncertain inputs) using PET. The first section includes a discussion of PET’s purpose, operation and theoretical behavior, much of which is taken from Fagnant et al. (2010). The second section offers case studies on capacity expansion, road pricing, demand management, shoulder lane use, speed harmonization, incident management and work zone timing along key links in the Austin, Texas network. The final section conducts extensive sensitivity testing of results for two competing upgrade scenarios (one tolled, the other not); the work examines how input variations impact PET outputs over hundreds of model applications. Taken together, these investigations highlight PET’s capabilities while identifying potential shortcomings. Such findings allow transportation planners to better appreciate the impacts that various projects can have on the traveling public, how project evaluation may best be tackled, and how they may use PET to anticipate impacts of projects they may be considering, before embarking on more detailed analyses and finalizing investment decisions. / text

[pt] Devido à escassez de recursos públicos nas últimas décadas, as Parcerias Público-Privadas têm sido cada vez mais utilizadas pelos governos como alternativa a investimentos de infra-estrutura de grande porte. O setor de transporte abriga excelentes oportunidades para a aplicação de tal parceria, e a correta avaliação deste tipo de projeto é de grande interesse da sociedade como um todo. A Metodologia Tradicional avalia as Parcerias Público-Privadas desconsiderando as flexibilidades deste tipo de projeto. Nesta dissertação, propõe-se a avaliação por Opções Reais, como complementação a forma tradicional de análise, introduzindo risco, incertezas e flexibilidades ao modelo clássico, como a incerteza de tráfego e garantias contratuais. Este modelo é aplicado ao Edital de Concorrência Internacional nº. 42325212, referente à concessão patrocinada para a exploração e operação da Linha 4 do Metrô de São Paulo e compara-se a avaliação pelo método de Avaliação Tradicional com o método das Opções Reais. Os resultados indicam que a Metodologia Tradicional não consegue incorporar as flexibilidades do projeto, enquanto que, a Teoria das Opções Reais os incorpora, mostrando-se mais adequada para a avaliação de tal projeto. / [en] Due to a lack of public funding in the last decade for infrastructure projects, private capital has been encouraged by government to participate in Public Private Partnerships (PPP). Transportation sector is a good example of opportunities to such association. The correct valuation of those types of projects is in the best interest of all society, but Traditional Methods, such as discounted cash flows, do not capture the value of the flexibilities embedded in those projects. This work proposes the use of Real Options Method as a complement to Traditional Analysis, by considering risks and uncertainties and flexibilities. The model was applied to the International Public Bid nº 42325212, which relates to the construction and operation of Line 4 of São Paulo City subway. By comparing both methods, traditional and real options, this work seeks to provide best way to measure this kind of project risks. The results suggest that Traditional Method does not considerate projects flexibilities, meanwhile, Real Optional Analysis does, and signalizing that is method is more suitable for this kind of project analysis.

[pt] No mundo competitivo e globalizado, dadas as inúmeras possibilidades de alocação de capital e as incertezas econômicas intrínsecas às decisões de investimento, a seleção de projetos lucrativos é um elemento de fundamental importância para o sucesso das empresas. Os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos, como o fluxo de caixa descontado (FCD), vêm sendo muito criticados por não capturarem de maneira adequada as flexibilidades existentes nos projetos. As vantagens de incluir a flexibilidade gerencial e a utilização mais freqüente da teoria de opções reais na avaliação de projetos permitem ampliar as discussões teóricas dos métodos utilizados para tal avaliação. A presente dissertação tem por finalidade a aplicação do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados de Monte Carlo (LSM) na avaliação econômica de projetos de Exploração e Produção de Petróleo (E&P). Para o cálculo das opções reais com o LSM foi construído um programa em VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) que, além de calcular o valor das opções, permite executar análises de sensibilidade. Para a validação do método, utilizou-se a aproximação analítica de Bjerksund & Stensland, por ser uma das mais utilizadas na avaliação de opções reais e por produzir a curva de exercício ótimo dessas opções. Na busca dos parâmetros a serem utilizados neste estudo, simulou-se um fluxo de caixa de um projeto de E&P. Por fim, os resultados obtidos não podem ser considerados definitivos, apenas poderão balizar o desenvolvimento e o aprimoramento da utilização do método LSM em Opções Reais. / [en] In a globalized and competitive world, given the many possibilities of capital allocation and inherent economic uncertainties in investment decisions, the selection of profitable projects is an element of fundamental importance for companies’ success. The traditional methods for investments valuation, such as discounted cash flow (DCF), have been being criticized for not capturing adequately projects flexibilities. The advantages of including management flexibility and more frequent use of the real options theory in the evaluation of projects allow us to expand the theoretical discussions of the methods used for valuation. This study aims to apply the least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method in economic valuation of upstream oil projects. For calculating real options with the LSM, a program in VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) language was built. Besides calculating the options value, it lets you run a sensitivity analysis. To validate the method, the analytical solution of Bjerksund & Stensland was used, as it is one of the most used in real options valuation and produces a graph of the optimal exercise for those options. In search for parameters to be used, a cash flow for an upstream oil project was simulated. Finally, the results can not be considered definitive; they can only guide the development and improvement of the use of LSM in Real Options.

[pt] Nas últimas décadas a participação do capital privado em projetos de infraestrutura tem aumentado. Por outro lado, considerando os elevados riscos de alguns destes empreendimentos, pode haver necessidade do governo estabelecer mecanismos de incentivo para reduzir estes riscos para continuar atraindo o investidor privado. Uma destas alternativas é a Garantia Limitada de Receita Mínima. Nesta modalidade, é garantida ao investidor uma receita mínima do projeto limitado a um teto pré-fixado chamado de nível de CAP, o que reduz o risco do governo. Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia que permite ao governo definir os parâmetros ótimos para precificar a Garantia de Receita Mínima com CAP de forma a alcançar os objetivos de atrair a iniciativa privada e minimizar o custo e o risco esperados pelo governo. Para determinar o interesse do investidor privado foi adotada a métrica do nível de risco do projeto, obtido da distribuição de probabilidade do VPL, e o risco do governo, a medida de performance Omega, obtida da distribuição de probabilidade da garantia, usando-se a metodologia das opções reais. Para determinar os parâmetros ótimos foi utilizado método numérico, dado que uma solução analítica é inviável dada a complexidade do problema. Como resultado secundário, demonstrou-se que quando o governo analisa a garantia em um contexto de carteira de projetos, o risco do governo reduz-se devido ao efeito da diversificação. / [en] In recent decades the participation of private capital in infrastructure projects has increased. Considering the high level of risk of some of these projects, there may be a need for some sort of government support mechanisms that reduce these risks in order to continue to attract the private investor interest. One such alternative is the Limited Minimum Revenue Guarantee, where the investor is guaranteed a minimum revenue level for the project, limited to a preset ceiling, or CAP, which reduces the government’s risk. This work proposes a method to allow the government to define the optimal parameters for both the Minimum Revenue Guarantee and the CAP, so that the private investor is attracted to the project at the lowest cost and risk possible to the government. The interest of the private investor is measured by the level of risk involved, which is obtained from the probability distribution of the project´s NPV. The metric for the government risk is assumed to be the Omega performance measure, which is determined from the probability distribution of the guarantee under the real options approach. Due to the complexity of the problem, an analytic solution is not feasible and it is shown that the optimal parameters can be determined with numerical methods. As a secondary result, it is also shown that when the government analyses these guarantees in the context of a portfolio of projects, the risk to the government is reduced due to the diversification effect.

Os projetos são realizados por meio de processos e técnicas de gerenciamento cuja seleção está relacionada ao contexto no qual são realizados, sendo a complexidade um de seus componentes. Ainda não há uma definição única e amplamente aceita para o conceito de complexidade em relação aos projetos. Alguns autores a relacionam ao ineditismo, às interdependências e à tecnologia. Outros adotam uma abordagem holística, e outros, ainda, a avaliam sob uma conotação subjetiva. Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa objetivou estudar a complexidade dos projetos, sob a perspectiva de seus gerentes, e a sua relação com o uso dos diferentes processos de gerenciamento. A metodologia adotada pela pesquisa considerou o estado atual do conhecimento sobre o tema. Assim, ela pode ser classificada como não experimental, quantitativa e com alcance predominantemente exploratório. O universo da pesquisa foi composto por gerentes de projetos que trabalham no Brasil. A amostragem foi por conveniência e foi usado um questionário eletrônico (e-survey) como instrumento de pesquisa. Participaram da pesquisa 313 profissionais que atuam no gerenciamento de projetos. A pesquisa constatou a existência de relação da complexidade dos projetos com a frequência de uso de processos e técnicas de gerenciamento relacionadas à fase de planejamento e à gestão de pessoas. A pesquisa, complementarmente, constatou que a definição do escopo dos produtos dos projetos teria relação com projetos de alta ou muito alta complexidade, e que é plausível considerar que a complexidade dos projetos não se deva a uma característica ou fator específico, mas sim a uma composição de fatores. / Projects are carried out through management techniques and processes, whose selection is related to the context in which they are conducted and the complexity is presented as one of their components. There is no unique definition and thoroughly accepted for the complexity concept with regard to the projects yet. Some authors relate it to the uniqueness, to the interdependences and to the technology. However, others authors adopt holistic approach and others evaluate it under a subjective connotation. This research aimed to study the complexity of projects, under their managers\' perspective, and its relation to the use of a set of project management processes. The methodology adopted by the research considered the current status of the knowledge about the theme. Thus, this research can be classified as no experimental, quantitative and exploratory. The research population was composed by Projects Managers that are working in Brazil. The sample was chosen by convenience and an electronic questionnaire (e-survey) was used as research instrument. The sample was composed by 313 project managers. The survey found the existence of relationship between the complexity of the projects and the frequency of use of processes and management techniques related to planning phase and to managing people. In addition, it has been verified on the research that the definition of the scope of the projects products would have relation to the projects considered as of high or very high complexity. It is also reasonable to consider that the complexity of the projects should be not related to a specific characteristic, but to a set of factors.

The study presents a business plan for agriculture company Výkrm Tagrea s.r.o. The plan should ideally confirm that the company's prospectus is viable and should also assist a potential strategic partner in assessing the company. The study consists of two parts. The theoretical section is divided into several chapters, which describe the structure of the prospectus, its users and the reasons for its creation. The practical section focuses on the prospectus in a company that was set up in order to enter the business of building poultry farms. It also analyzes the background of the investment, the current situation in the field and the various processes in the company. The conclusion presents evaluation of the prospectus' effectiveness, including potential risks and proposals aimed at minimizing such risks.