本論文包括3篇時間序列方法在財務的應用。第一篇以門檻向量自我迴歸模型(threshold vector autoregression)分析股市訊息傳遞的不對稱效果；第二篇利用不對稱共整合模型(asymmetric cointegration)分析中國大陸股市之間長期均衡關係；第三篇根據追蹤資料共整合檢定(panel Cointegration test)檢定購買力平價說。 第一篇文章利用門檻向量自我迴歸模型分析Nasdaq股市對台灣、日本與韓國股市不對稱的訊息傳遞效果。實證結果發現，當Nasdaq市場處於下跌狀態時（壞消息狀態），Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較大，反之，當Nasdaq市場處於上漲狀態時（好消息狀態）時，Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較小，而在壞消息狀態時，Nasdaq指數大跌對Jasdaq指數與Kosdaq指數的衝擊效果大於Nasdaq指數大漲的效果，Nasdaq指數小跌所產生的衝擊與小漲所產生的效果具有對稱性。 第二篇文章以Enders and Siklos(2001)不對稱共整合模型探討，中國大陸上海及深圳A股與B股股價指數之間長期不對稱的均衡關係，實證結果發現，在1992年10月至2001年8月，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間具有不對稱共整合關係，且當上海A股處於好消息狀態（股市上漲）時，其誤差修正項的調整速度較壞消息狀態（股市下跌）之下為快，此外，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間其有雙向的連動關係。在B股開放之後，則是深圳股市A股與B股指數存在不對稱共整合關係，同時Granger因果關係檢定顯示深圳B股指數領先A股指數。 第三篇文章利用Pedroni(2001)追蹤資料共整合檢定，探討大麥克漢堡價格與CPI兩種不同的價格指數用於檢定購買力平價說的有效性，根據14個國家1992-1999年的追蹤資料得到的實證結果顯示，以名目匯率作為被解釋變數，則大麥克漢堡價格與CPI都是支持PPP假說，然而若以相對價格為被解釋變數，則只有大麥克漢堡價格是支持PPP假說，而以CPI為基礎的PPP假說則是無法得到支持。除此之外，本文的實證結論並不受生產力差異的影響。 關鍵字：門檻向量自我迴歸模型、不對稱共整合、追蹤資料共整合、股票市場、購買力平價說 / This dissertation includes three financial applications using time series methods. The first article investigates the asymmetric effects of information transmissions in stock markets using threshold vector autoregression model. The second article uses asymmetric cointegration to study the long-run equilibium relationships among Chinese stock markets. The third article uses panal cointegration to test purchasing-power parity (PPP). Firstly, we examines the asymmetric effects of information transmissions of Nasdaq stock market on Taiwan, Japan, and Korea stock markets by using a threshold vector autoregressive model. And also, we check whether Nasdaq stock market have different impacts on organized stock exchanges (including TAIEX, NIKKEI 225 Index, Korea Composite Index) and over-the-counter markets (including Taisdaq Index, Jasdaq Index, and Kosdaq Index) or not. The empirical results indicate that negative innovations in Nasdaq market (bad news regime) have large influence on Asia stock markets. Particularly, the positive innovations in Nasdaq market (good news regime) have small influence on Asia stock market. The large negative innovations in Nasdaq market have great influence than those of the large positive innovations on Jasdaq Index and Kosdaq Index in bad news regime. The second article uses Enders and Sikios's (2001) asymmetric cointegration model to investigate the long-run asymmetric equihbrium relationships. The empirical results find that there exits an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index for the period from October 1992 to August 2001. The adjustment parameters of error correction term at Shanghai A share market are larger in bad-news regime than those in good-news regime. This result reveals investors at Shanghai possess over-reaction behavior on news of stock market. Moreover, there exists a bi-directional Granger causality between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index. We find there exists an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shenzhen A share index and Shenzhen B share index after 19 February 2001. Furthermore, the Shenzhen B share index leads Shenzhen A share index after 19 February 2001. The third article uses Pedroni's (2001) panel cointegration test to examine the validity of PPP hypothesis by two different price indces, i.e. Big Mac prices and CPI. Our panel observations include 14 countries from 1992 to 1999. The empirical evidence indicates Big Mac PPP and CPI PPP is supposed if we use nominal exchange rate as the explanatory variable. Nevertheless, the Big Mac PPP is valid but CPI PPP not valid if we use price level as the explanatory variable. Moveover, our concludtion does not influenced by productivity bias. Keywords: threshold vector autoregression, asymmetric cointegration, panel cointegration, stock markets, purchasing-power parity

The price level convergence of the transition economies towards the reference economies is linked to the relative price of nontradables, which is explained by the total factor productivity differentials in tradable and nontradable sector. Basic concept is offered by the Balassa Samuelson model and its modifications. Testable equations are derived from these models, and the panel data approach is applied for their estimation. The results indicate faster growth of the relative price of nontradables in transition economies as succession of higher growth rate of the total factor productivity in tradable sector. Hence estimated models confirm the price level convergence of transition economies towards the reference economies. The analyses of price dynamics of the complementary field, i. e. of the tradables, follows, and the basic concept is represented by the rational bubble hypothesis. The stress is putted on the impact of the word prices on the price levels of the Czech Republic. After a cointegration analysis of the time series is carried out, the influence of the word prices of tradable commodities is estimated within a vector error correction model and regression analysis. This cost factors analysis is afterwards related to the export dynamics of the Czech Republic, and models suitable for quantitative analysis of export dynamics as well as its prediction based on vector error correction model and regression analysis are evaluated. Their forecasting ability is assessed within a simulation of ex-post forecasts and a root mean squared error. The aim is to consider the relationship between the price levels and the export dynamics, for the relation of both variables evaluated within the Granger causality seems to be less straightforward then the standard export equations suggest, and the estimated equations confirm significant influence of the export dynamics on the price level.

本研究提出UIP、PPP、 MF、TR及TRa五種匯率預測模型，以新台幣兌美元即期匯率、遠期匯率進行避險準確率及避險成效的實證分析。資料期間為1996年12月到2012年10月的新台幣兌美元即期匯率月資料，資料來源為資料庫Datastream。 實證結果發現UIP、PPP、 MF、TR及TRa五種匯率預測模型比較分析中，若以相對購買力平價模型(PPP)進行選擇性避險，再搭配適當避險比率，其報酬率可能由負報酬轉為正報酬；避險績效衡量方面，以相對購買力平價模型搭配完全避險的績效最好。若以不對稱泰勒模型(TRa)進行選擇性避險，再搭配適當避險比率，報酬率明顯由負轉為正；衡量避險績效衡量方面，完全避險在風險降幅及下方動差避險績效衡量下，以不對稱泰勒模型搭配完全避險的績效最好。 / This study provides five exchange rate models to predict future exchange rate (UIP,PPP,MF,Taylor rule and asymmetric Taylor rule). We illustrate these methods by assessing the forecasting performance of five exchange rate models using monthly returns on TWD/US dollar exchange rate. The data are monthly exchange rates ranging from December 1996 to October 2012, using spot and one-month forward exchange rates form Datastream. We find that empirical models based on purchase power parity (PPP) and the asymmetric Taylor rule(TRa) outperform the other models in out-of-sample forecasting using the appropriate hedging ratio. Comparing the hedging performance between PPP and models, we find that the hedging performance by the PPP will get the higher return. However, the hedging performance by the will get the lower volatility.

Submitted by Evandro Baradel (ebaradel@usp.br) on 2012-02-02T19:35:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-02-02T19:57:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-02-03T10:31:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-21 / This dissertation shows that the bidding issue can be used as a regional development public policy instrument. The biddings in the state of São Paulo are based on a public policy that requires procedures of territorial decentralization. The decree that regulates this policy is focused mainly on giving a favored and simplified treatment to micro and small businesses. On the issue of decentralization the São Paulo government presents innovation in relation to federal legislation dealing with the subject. The decentralization phenomenon can contribute to increase the amount of winning companies that belong to particular region where the biddings producing 'regional economic growth'. However, here we adopt the hypothesis that this differential has not been effective. To verify it, we conducted a case study focused on two units of the University of São Paulo, both located in countryside. Analyzed the presence and electronic (reverse auctions) bidding procedures. The comparative analysis was still supplemented by a questionnaire given to civil servants of the procurement area of various units of this University. The result obtained in this paper shows that the effect of promoting regional development has not been achieved in both cases studied. It concludes that we must go a long way in the discussion about the use of governmental purchasing power as a potential inducer of regional development, which invariably suffers from legal changes. It’s also necessary to adopt complementary public policies. / Esta dissertação aborda a questão das licitações e como elas podem ser usadas como instrumento de política pública de desenvolvimento regional. As licitações do estado de São Paulo são orientadas sob uma política pública que exige procedimentos licitatórios que considerem a descentralização territorial. O decreto que regulamenta tal política tem como principal enfoque o tratamento simplificado e favorecido a micro e pequenas empresas, sendo que o aspecto da descentralização inova em relação à legislação federal que aborda o assunto. O fenômeno descentralizador pode contribuir para o aumento da quantidade de empresas vencedoras pertencentes a uma determinada região na qual ocorrem às licitações, podendo desta forma produzir 'crescimento econômico regional'. Contudo, adota-se aqui a hipótese de que esse diferencial não tem surtido efeito. Para verificar tal hipótese, realizou-se um estudo de caso centrado em duas unidades da Universidade de São Paulo, ambas localizadas no interior do estado. Foram analisadas as licitações realizadas de maneira presencial e eletrônica (pregões). A análise comparativa ainda foi complementada por um questionário submetido aos servidores da área de licitação das diversas unidades desta Universidade. O resultado obtido neste trabalho indica que o efeito de promoção do desenvolvimento regional não ocorreu em ambos os casos estudados. Conclui-se, ainda, que é preciso avançar muito na discussão acerca da utilização do poder de compra do Estado como potencial indutor de desenvolvimento regional. Esta atuação estatal invariavelmente deverá sofrer mudanças legais, sendo necessária, também, a adoção de outras políticas públicas complementares.

The thesis investigates different exchange rate models and their forecasting performance. The work takes previous literature overview and summarize their findings. Despite the significant amount of papers which were done on the topic of exchange rate forecast, basically none of them cannot find an appropriate model which would outperform a forecast of a simple random walk in every horizon or for any currency pair. However, there are some positive findings in specific cases (e.g. for specific pair or for specific time horizon). The study provides up-to-date analysis of four exchange rates (USD/CZK, USD/ILS, USD/GBP and USD/EUR) for the period of time from January 2000 to August 2013 and analyse forecasting performance of seven exchange rate models (uncovered interest rate parity model, purchasing power parity model, monetary model, monetary model with error correction, Taylor rule model, hidden Markov model and ESTAR model). Although, the results are in advantage of Taylor rule model, especially for the exchange rate of USD/CZK, I cannot prove that the forecasting performance is significantly better than the random walk model. Except of the overall analysis, the work suppose instabilities in the time. Stock and Watson (2003) found that the forecast predictability is not stable over time. As a consequence, the econometric model can give us better forecast than random walk process at some period of time, however at other period, the forecasting ability can be worse than random walk. Based on Fluctuation test of Giacomini and Rossi (2010a) every model is analysed how the out-of-sample forecast ability changes over time.

Course: Degree project in Supply Chain Management, Master of science within business and economics, 30 credits Title: To secure limited material for smaller enterprises - A case study on KG ListAuthors: Oskar Olsen & Axel StrandbergSupervisor: Åsa GustavssonExaminator: Peter Berling Background: In an increasingly competitive business market, the sourcing process needs to be optimized to gain advantages over competitors. Companies using limited resources suffer from not being able to secure material in different ways. Being a small enterprise also gives additional negative consequential effects. To be able to decrease the effects, working methods with solutions and key performance indicators need to be found. Smaller enterprises in the wood industry have been identified as actors suffering from the consequential effects. Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to identify negative consequential effects experienced by smaller enterprises regarding the securing of limited resources. In addition, the aim is to describe a working method with solutions and associated key performance indicators to counteract the consequential effects regarding the securing of limited resources. Research questions: RQ1: What consequences do smaller enterprises experience when securing limited material?RQ2: What solutions and key performance indicators can be applied to counteract identified consequential effects when securing limited material for smaller enterprises?Method: The paper uses a deductive approach while applying a qualitative research method with elements of quantitative data. The primary empirical data was collected by unstructured and semistructured interviews, observations and the in-depth method focus-group interviews. Results: The study shows multiple consequential effects of not being able to secure limited resources as a smaller enterprise. The three major findings were: uncertainty in supply, decreased purchasing power due to being a smaller enterprise in the industry, and being forced to import materials. The study finds working methods with solutions and associated key performance indicators to counteract each effect. With supply chain resilience the effects of uncertainty in supply decreases. The purchasing power could increase by developing supplier relationships or increase the purchase price. By outsourcing a part of or the whole production process the effects of being forced to import could be counteracted. The key performance indicators for each solution needs to be developed individually for every company and should focus on critical moments related to the consequential effects.   Keywords: Limited resources, smaller enterprises, securing resources, consequential effects, solutions, key performance indicators, KPI, sourcingprocess, purchasing power, resilience, supply chain, supplier relationships, outsourcing, supplier pool, the wood industry, oak, oak log

This thesis analyzes the commercial real estate market in Brno, with a focus on the fol-purchasing center. It also deals with determining the marketing strategy of OC Olympia. The marketing strategy was created SWOT analysis, and from it created proposals or recommendations for increasing visitor center. Next been created a competition analysis and market research around the center.

The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, which is based on the current spot exchange rate and the carry cost of the transaction. Results of various studies, including this study, demonstrated that the current forward exchange rate differs substantially from the realized future spot exchange rate. This phenomenon is known as the exchange rate puzzle. This study contributes to the dynamics of modelling exchange rate theories by developing an exchange rate model that has the ability to explain the realized future spot exchange rate and the exchange rate puzzle. The exchange rate model is based only on current (time t) economic fundamentals and includes an alternative approach of incorporating the impact of the interaction of two international financial markets into the model. This study derived a unique exchange rate model, which proves that the exchange rate puzzle is a pseudo problem. The pseudo problem is based on the generally excepted fallacy that current non–stationary, level time series data cannot be used to model exchange rate theories, because of the incorrect assumption that all the available econometric methods yield statistically insignificant results due to spurious regressions. Empirical evidence conclusively shows that using non–stationary, level time series data of current economic fundamentals can statistically significantly explain the realized future spot exchange rate and, therefore, that the exchange rate puzzle can be solved. This model will give market participants in the foreign exchange market a better indication of expected future exchange rates, which will considerably reduce the dependence on the mechanistically derived forward points. The newly derived exchange rate model will also have an influence on the demand and supply of forward exchange, resulting in forward points that are a more accurate prediction of the realized future exchange rate. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, which is based on the current spot exchange rate and the carry cost of the transaction. Results of various studies, including this study, demonstrated that the current forward exchange rate differs substantially from the realized future spot exchange rate. This phenomenon is known as the exchange rate puzzle. This study contributes to the dynamics of modelling exchange rate theories by developing an exchange rate model that has the ability to explain the realized future spot exchange rate and the exchange rate puzzle. The exchange rate model is based only on current (time t) economic fundamentals and includes an alternative approach of incorporating the impact of the interaction of two international financial markets into the model. This study derived a unique exchange rate model, which proves that the exchange rate puzzle is a pseudo problem. The pseudo problem is based on the generally excepted fallacy that current non–stationary, level time series data cannot be used to model exchange rate theories, because of the incorrect assumption that all the available econometric methods yield statistically insignificant results due to spurious regressions. Empirical evidence conclusively shows that using non–stationary, level time series data of current economic fundamentals can statistically significantly explain the realized future spot exchange rate and, therefore, that the exchange rate puzzle can be solved. This model will give market participants in the foreign exchange market a better indication of expected future exchange rates, which will considerably reduce the dependence on the mechanistically derived forward points. The newly derived exchange rate model will also have an influence on the demand and supply of forward exchange, resulting in forward points that are a more accurate prediction of the realized future exchange rate. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.