本文主要欲了解「一帶一路」戰略之概念，「一帶一路」為中國領導人習近平於2013年提出的新中國外交戰略，然而由於「一帶一路」戰略之概念太過龐大，必須透過「一帶一路」框架下各區域之戰略，才能更了解「一帶一路」的總體狀況，因此本文選擇RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定)作為了解「一帶一路」之通道，因為廣義來說RCEP可視為中國「一帶一路」戰略下的其中一環。 此外，本文的研究方法為文獻分析法，並以地緣經濟理論做為本文的研究途徑。在經濟全球化浪潮之下，國際關係已從以往國際政治權力取向之地緣政治，逐漸轉變成為追求自身國家經濟利益為主要任務之「地緣經濟」時代，一國的經濟水平將提升至國家安全戰略角度來思考，國家為保護本國的市場與投資利益，往往以地理位置出發與鄰近國家形成區域經濟集團，以追逐更多的經濟利。RCEP便是從地緣經濟的角度思考，為追求東北亞與東南亞國家的經濟合作與發展，由東盟十國為主導，中國大陸強力支持而形成之超級自由貿易區。因此，本文將以地緣經濟途徑作為了解RCEP協議之工具。 本文研究問題如下：(一)近期中國與RCEP其他成員國的勞動分工關係為何？ (二)如何以地緣經濟理論解釋中國與RCEP成員國的勞動分工關係？本文的研究結果如下：(一)近期中國與RCEP的其他成員國的勞動分工關係，本文認為中國對RCEP成員國的勞動分工關係呈現「動態性逐漸向資本技術密集型產業移動」的趨勢，而RCEP成員國對中國的勞動分工關係呈現「提供原材料與科技取向」的伙伴關係。 (二) RCEP的構建，是地緣經濟時代下的產物，從中國與RCEP成員國的勞動分工關係中，可以看出其中確實蘊含大量的地緣經濟理論之實踐，共有以下三點：一是中國與RCEP成員國呈現「互補性」的勞動分工關係，此互補性的關係，提供了RCEP成員國能組成區域經濟集團之基本也是必要之條件。二是為了尋求更高的經濟利益，中國對RCEP成員國的勞動分工關係從生產附加價值低的勞動密集型產業，轉移到生產附加價值高的資本技術密集型產業。三為中國與RCEP成員國的勞動分工關係中，可以看出彼此的合作中有競爭，競爭中有合作的局面。

自1990年代起，全球區域經濟整合蓬勃發展，大幅影響與塑造了世界各地經濟及貿易的運作。我國一直為貿易導向之國家，在世界貿易體系中扮演優良產品出口國之角色，更不能免於區域經濟整合之外。時至今日，當亞太地區的兩個重要大型區域貿易協定TPP及RCEP即將成形，我國卻尚未加入，也未見在短期內能夠加入之明確曙光，故本研究欲探討在我國未能加入TPP及RCEP之假設前提下，此二區域經濟整合對我國總體經濟及產業部門之衝擊。本文先概述TPP及RCEP之協定內容、特色與重要性，再蒐集政府機關之研究報告、國際組織發布之公開資訊與國內外既有文獻之內容與數據分析，並根據文獻內容探討TPP及RCEP對我國總體經濟及產業的衝擊和影響，發現當TPP及RCEP生效而我國未能加入，此二區域經濟協定將使我國總體經濟數據負成長；此外針對作者所服務的電子設備產業，也帶來負面的衝擊。基於此結果，作者以電子設備產業為例，對我國廠商在面對整體經濟環境的影響下提出因應策略，包括海外供應鏈佈局、建立海外經銷體系、增強產品及服務差異化、國際人力資源管理、策略結盟以及海外台商交流互助平台等，以期能建立並持續保有自身優勢，在國際競爭中獲得佳績。

Submitted by Celiano Plocharski da Cunha (celianop@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-16T15:19:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.docx: 1183350 bytes, checksum: b0a4ea1334eec5aaef93f77a39ff6897 (MD5) / Rejected by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br), reason: Celiano, O artigo deve ser postado em PDF. Att, Mayara on 2018-04-16T23:06:59Z (GMT) / Submitted by Celiano Plocharski da Cunha (celianop@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-17T01:04:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.pdf: 1633680 bytes, checksum: 83c10d2a4ea626076dbcf25c99455f68 (MD5) / Rejected by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Celiano, boa noite Alguns itens devem ser ajustados de acordo com as normas: 1. O nome GETULIO não tem acento 2. As palavras- chave devem ser separadas por ponto e vírgula 3. A paginação inicia na introdução, mas os elementos pré-textuais devem ser contados. Ex: se são 11 páginas antes da introdução, a introdução inicia no numero 11. Qualquer dúvida estou à disposição. Att, Mayara 3799/3438 on 2018-04-18T21:42:49Z (GMT) / Submitted by Celiano Plocharski da Cunha (celianop@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-19T18:55:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.pdf: 1626818 bytes, checksum: 90a324ad742a1c944feb31f126371e43 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br) on 2018-04-20T19:14:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.pdf: 1626818 bytes, checksum: 90a324ad742a1c944feb31f126371e43 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Isabele Garcia (isabele.garcia@fgv.br) on 2018-04-20T19:59:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.pdf: 1626818 bytes, checksum: 90a324ad742a1c944feb31f126371e43 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-20T19:59:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Celiano Diss. Final 09 04 18.pdf: 1626818 bytes, checksum: 90a324ad742a1c944feb31f126371e43 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-22 / The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the possibility of Brazil integrate the main agreements of the Asian region, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). A computable general equilibrium model is employ to simulate scenarios on various agreements, which will make it possible to identify the potential impacts and opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness. The impact on exports, imports and production of the agribusiness segments will have the emphasis, through scenarios to reduce trade barriers between countries participating in the agreements. Faced with difficulties in advancing multilateral agreements, the protectionist position of the United States, and the difficulties of opening up the European market, we must consider taking up the potential space that these countries will leave in trade relations with other nations and economic blocs. The results indicate that Brazilian agribusiness; GDP and Welfare are more benefited through participation in the agreements than to stay away from them. Integrating simultaneously in TPP and RCEP is the scenario that most favours Brazilian agribusiness. Joining the RCEP brings the best effects on welfare The results also indicate that RCEP is the hypothetical scenario most beneficial for GDP. / O presente estudo tem como objetivo examinar os efeitos sobre o Brasil da formação dos principais acordos da região asiática, o Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) e o Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Diante das dificuldades no avanço de acordos multilaterais, a posição protecionista dos EUA, e as dificuldades para uma maior abertura do mercado europeu, é preciso considerar ocupar o espaço potencial que estes países deixarão nas relações comerciais com outras nações e blocos econômicos. O modelo de equilíbrio geral computável Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) foi utilizado para simulação de cenários alternativos, que consideram a formação desses acordos com e sem a participação do Brasil nos mesmos. As simulações permitem identificar os potenciais impactos e oportunidades para a economia brasileira, em especial, para o agronegócio do país. Os cenários são simulados por meio de eliminação de barreiras comerciais tarifárias entre países participantes dos acordos. Os resultados apontam que o agronegócio brasileiro, PIB e Bem-estar serão mais beneficiados através da participação nos acordos do que a permanecer afastado dos mesmos. Integrar-se simultaneamente no TPP e RCEP é o cenário que mais favorece o agronegócio brasileiro. Já associar-se ao RCEP traz os melhores efeitos ao Bem-estar. Os resultados ainda indicam que RCEP é o cenário hipotético mais benéfico para PIB.

世界貿易組織成立之後，各國經濟發展隨著交通工具與網際網路的進步，「全球化」與「區域化」成為推動全球經濟發展的動力，區域合作對國際關係的重整產生深遠的影響，同時民族國家更希望透過區域性的整合來增加經濟效率與政治接受度。已成為全球第二大經濟體的中國大陸，其領導人習近平於2013年分別提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」的戰略構想，做為其以經濟優勢為基礎，對周邊國家實施區域整合的策略，並成為區域性霸權的雙面刃。 基於地緣政治的因素，為了有效的施行中國大陸以發展成海洋強國為主軸的「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略構想，東南亞國協成為中國大陸企業走出去的首選目標。強調以東南亞國協為中心的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」為中國大陸所積極推動的區域經濟整合，普遍被認為是中國大陸為了主導全球經濟，制衡美國所支持的「跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」之戰略手段，東協亦成為中美權力較量的重點區域。除了與區域外強權的經貿競逐，東南亞國協十國於政治、經濟、文化、宗教、地理與自然資源因素都存在很大的差異，中國大陸推行經貿整合的過程雖創造了合作的機遇，卻也存在諸多風險。 2010年中國大陸與東協自貿區成立以來，雙邊的服務貿易與貨物貿易協議成效均不斷擴大，中國大陸藉由「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」和中國大陸與東協自貿區「升級版」作為中國大陸與東協當前經濟合作的支撐，並以投資為合作主軸，互聯互通為核心，輔以亞洲基礎建設投資銀行及絲路基金等銀彈策略，同時為中國大陸經濟高速成長產能過剩問題尋求出路，本文透過中國大陸海權戰略、區域經濟整合與東協經貿外交進程，分析其機遇、挑戰及影響。 / After the World Trade Organization(WTO) was formed, the progress of both the transportation and network have been pushing the development of countries’ economy. “Globalization” and “Regionalization” become the power for promoting global economy development. Regional cooperation has deep influence on the reformation of international relations. Meanwhile, nation-states would like to increase economic efficiency and political acceptance through regional integration. In 2013, China, being the world’s second largest economy, its leader, Xi Jinping, raised up strategic concept of “Silk Road Economy Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” for its foundation of economic advantages.China is using it as a tactic to perform regional integration of the neighboring countries and to become a regional superpower. Based on the geo-political reason, in order to effectively enforce the strategic concept of “Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road” and to develop China as a maritime power, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has become the top choice for Chinese corporations to walk out. The “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” centered on the ASEAN nations, which China is actively pushing for, is widely believed to be a strategic move to lead the global economy and to balance “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” supported by the United States. The ASEAN has become the competing focal point for both China and the U.S. Besides the economic competition with the outside regional superpowers, all the 10 members of the ASEAN countries exist significant differences in politics, economy, culture, religion, geography, and natural resources. Therefore, despite China is creating the opportunity of economic and trading cooperation, there are still many risks. Since the establishment of China and ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA) in 2010, the result of service trade and goods trade agreement has expanded. China uses both “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the upgraded version of “China-ASEAN Free Trade Area” to support its economic cooperation with the ASEAN, meanwhile, using investment as the principle for cooperation, and mutual communication as the core, and money bullet from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk road fund as the assisting strategy in order to seek way out for China’s overcapacity. This paper is for readers to understand China’s opportunity, threat, and effect through analyzing its maritime strategy, and regional economic integration with ASEAN economy diplomacy and trade progress.