This paper examines the effects of Ikea store establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad on the trade and retail inside the two cities, and as well on the trade and retail in the close neighboring municipalities and in further peripheral municipalities in both regions. After the establishment of Ikea store, Kalmar and Karlstad have experienced significant growth in trade and retail. The question, however, is how big this growth is in both cities? And how different locations on different distances from Ikea have been affected? What impact there was on different segments of the retail? How different business branches have been affected? How large the catchment area for the emerging new large-scale retail locations is? These questions, in addition to few others, are investigated in this paper. The thesis starts with an introduction chapter containing a background of the topic, problem description, the investigated questions, the purpose, and the outline of the paper. The next chapter includes the frame of reference which consists of literature review and theoretical framework about the external shopping centers and their impact on retail and regional trade development. It includes also information gathered from previous studies technical reports and other available sources about the subject. The third chapter includes description for the methods used to collect the primary and secondary data needed for the purpose of this study. Then the empirical framework which demonstrates the results of the conducted research followed by analysis and concluded in discussion and conclusion. Mixed methods are used as research strategy in this thesis, and the method to conduct the research is based on telephone interviews for the primary (qualitative) data, and documents and desk research for the secondary (quantitative) data. The gathered data is analyzed and designed in a way that allows the usage of comparative analysis technique to present the findings and draw conclusions. The results showed that new established Ikea retail store outside the city boundaries results with many effects on the city center and on the neighboring municipalities as well. The city center seems not to be affected negatively, but on the contrary positive effects were witnessed in both regions, these positive effects are linked to the increase inflow of customers from the external retail area which is known as spillover effect. III On the other hand, the neighboring towns and municipalities are more negatively affected especially with the trade of con-convenience goods as the consumers in these towns and municipalities start to go to the area of Ikea and the large external retail center to do their purchasing, the substitution effect is then said to be occurred. Moreover, the further far municipalities do not seem to be significantly affected by the establishment of Ikea. These effects whether positive or negative could be monitored by looking to few trade parameters such as the turnover, the sales index, and the consumers’ expenditure, these parameters can be very useful to measure the developments and changes in the trade and retail in a given place.

Cette thèse a pour but d'analyser l'impact de la création de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest africaine (UEMOA), un exemple d'accord commercial régional (ACR) sur la dynamique du commerce et du développement au sein de cet espace. Elle analyse le processus de convergence réelle et examine les possibilités de renforcement du processus d'intégration économique. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse à l'impact du processus d'intégration sur la réduction des disparités de revenu par tête entre les pays membres. Mesuré par l'écart-type du PIB par tête à prix constant de 2005, les analyses ont révélé que les pays de l'UEMOA font l'expérience d'une convergence réelle entre 1970 et 2010. Cependant, selon nos analyses, la création de l'UEMOA n'a pas amélioré significativement les conditions de vie dans les pays membres. L'idée qui est exprimée dans ce premier chapitre est qu'un ACR qui réunit des partenaires plus ou moins égaux et vise non pas seulement à promouvoir le commerce intrinsèque, mais aussi et surtout l'intégration et le développement, peut être un complément utile pour le multilatéralisme en ce sens qu'il permet d'en corriger les inefficiences et à amortir ses chocs. Par contre, certains ACR peuvent constituer de graves menaces pour le système commercial multilatéral à partir du moment où ils génèrent des déséquilibres et renforcent les inégalités entre ceux qui les signent. C'est le cas de nombreux ACR impliquant des pays en développement et des pays développés. Le deuxième chapitre s'intéresse à un tel exemple d'ACR et propose une stratégie pour réduire les effets négatifs et permettre aux pays en développement de bénéficier des avantages du libre-échange. L'analyse est faite sur les implications macroéconomiques des Accords de partenariat économique (APE) entre les pays e l'Union européenne et ceux de l'Afrique des Caraïbes et du Pacifique (ACP). Nous montrons, à partir des données de la Côte d'Ivoire, qu'avec des dépenses publiques productives, les pays en développement peuvent réduire les effets négatifs de court terme des APE. Les économies en développement sont si petites et trop faibles face à la concurrence étrangère qu'elles mettent en place des politiques protectionnistes comme l'instauration d'un droit de douane sur les importations. C'est l'exemple du tarif extérieur commun imposé par l'UEMOA sur les importations en provenance d'un pays tiers. Le chapitre trois de cette thèse propose un modèle DGSE simple permettant d'analyser les impacts macroéconomiques de cette modification de la structure tarifaire. Il ressort que l'effet net d'un droit de douane est la réduction des principales composantes de la demande domestique et une baisse d'utilité des consommateurs. L'analyse montre que la dynamique de moyen et long terme ainsi que la réaction instantanée de ces composantes dépendent de l'élasticité de substitution entre les variétés des biens importés. / This thesis aims to analyze the impact of the creation of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), a regional trade agreements (RTAs) example on the dynamics of trade and development in this area. It analyzes the process of real convergence and examines opportunities to strengthen the integration process. The first chapter focuses on the impact of integration on reducing disparities in per capita income between member countries. Measured by the standard deviation of per capita GDP at constant prices of 2005, these analyzes revealed that the WAEMU countries are experiencing a real convergence between 1970 and 2010. However, according to our analysis, the creation of teh WAEMU has not significantly improved living conditions in memeber countries. The idea expressed in the first chapter is a regional trade agreements (RTAs) which brings together more or less equal partners and aims not only to promote trade themselves, but also and especially the integration and developemnt, may be a useful adjunct for multilateralism in the sense that it allows to correct inefficiencies and absorb its impact. On the other side, some RTAs can pose serious threats to the multilateral trading system from the moment they generate imbalances and reinforce inequalities between those who sign them. This is the case of many RTAs involving developing and developed countries. The second chapter focuses on one example of this type of RTAs and proposes a strategy to reduce the negative effects and to enable developing countries to reap the benefits of free trade. The analysis is done on the macroeconomic implications of economic partnership agreements(EPAs) between the countries of the European Union and those of the African Caribbean and Pacific. We show, using data from Côte d'Ivoire that, with productive public spending, developing countries can reudce the negative effects of short-term EPA. Developing countries are so small and too weak to cope with foreign competition that they implement protectionist policies such as the introduction of a tariff on imports. This is the case of the common external tariff imposed by the WAEMU imports from third countries. Chapter three of this tesis proposes a simple DGSE model, to assess macroeconomic impacts of this change in tariff structure. It appears that the net effect of a tariff reduction is the decrease of the main components of domestic demand and a lower level of consumer utility. The analysis shows that the dynamics of medium and long term as well as the instantaneous reaction of theses components depend on the elasticity of substitution between varieties of imported goods.

Paralelamente aos esforços dos países, sob a liderança norte-americana, para a construção de um sistema multilateral de comércio mais livre e mais integrado, o pós-guerra assistiu a esforços regionalistas sob a forma de Acordos Regionais de Comércio (ARCs). Impulsionados pela experiência européia, países na América Latina e na África engajaram-se na formação de ARCs nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, sem grande sucesso, marcando o primeiro momento regionalista. A ordem internacional após Guerra Fria foi marcada pelo reavivamento do regionalismo com a celebração de novos ARCs e o relançamento de antigos acordos, marcando o segundo momento. A formação de ARCs, especialmente a explosão de acordos desde a inauguração da OMC, tem suscitado discussões entre o multilateralismo e o regionalismo, se seriam complementares ou contraditórios. A percepção da importância que assumiram os ARCs na teoria econômica e nas relações econômicas internacionais desperta o interesse sobre os motivos que levam os países a formarem esses acordos e a despenderem tanto tempo e esforço em sua formação. De acordo com a análise tradicional, os países buscam os ARCs como forma de aumentar as trocas comerciais e os investimentos entre os países membros por meio da redução de barreiras alfandegárias. Embora estejam presentes nos ARCs e sejam importantes nos cálculos dos países na formação desse acordo, os motivos tradicionais não conferem um explicação completa, especialmente quando se considera novo regionalismo, marcado por grandes avanços nas liberalizações multilateral e unilateral. O fato é que os países não buscam a integração apenas por suas razões econômicas intrínsecas, configuradas nos ganhos tradicionais, os ganhos expressos em seus acordos. Além dos ganhos comerciais, muitas vezes, mais importantes que os ganhos econômicos, os países têm outros objetivos quando aderem a arranjos regionais. Em busca de uma teoria mais completa para explicar a formação de ARCs, este trabalho se apoiará em quatro ganhos não-tradicionais: acesso seguro a mercados, segurança, suporte para reformas domésticas e incremento do poder de barganha. / Alongside with the countries efforts, under the leadership of United States, to the construction of a freer and more integrated multilateral trade system, the post-war period witnessed the regionalist efforts in the form of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Stimulated by the European experience, countries in Latin America and Africa engaged themselves into the formation of RTAs in the 1960\'s and 1970\'s, without much success, determining the first regionalist period. The international order after the Cold War was marked by the revival of regionalism with the signing of new RTAs and the relaunch of old ones, determining the second period. The formation of RTAs, especially the explosion of new agreements since the inauguration of the WTO, has created discussions between multilateralism and regionalism, if they are complementary or contradictory. The perception of the importance assumed by the RTAs in economic theory and in the international economic relations arouses the interest about the reasons that lead countries to form such agreements and spend both time and efforts into their formation. According to the traditional analysis, countries seek RTAs as a way to increase trade and investment among member countries by reducing customs barriers. Despite being present in RTAs and despite being important in the countries calculation during agreements formation, the traditional motives don\'t grant a complete explanation, especially when considering the new regionalism, marked by great progress in the multilateral and unilateral liberalization. The fact is that countries do not seek integration only by its intrinsic economic reasons, configured in the traditional gains, gains that are expressed in their agreements. In addition to trade gains, often, more important than the economic gains, countries have other goals when they join regional arrangements. Searching for a more complete theory to explain the formation of RTAs, this work will be supported by four nontraditional gains: safe markets access, security, support for domestic reforms and increased bargain power.

Climate change is the most obvious and pressing impairment of the biological, physical, and chemical systems. To help mitigate this unprecedented problem, I present heads of state, policymakers, and members of civil society with a set of new provisions that they can include in their trade agreements to drive emissions reduction from countries inside and outside of their trade agreements, maintain their ability to compete in an increasingly globalized world, and comply with international trading rules. Ultimately, I seek to demonstrate the untapped potential for leveraging trade agreements to reduce emissions in the midst of an international system that lacks concerted climate action. In light of humanity’s inadequate efforts to address the immense threats posed by a changing climate, decentralized efforts, such as these, are increasingly essential to reduce emissions.

O comércio internacional de serviços é cada dia mais importante para as economias nacionais e para o comércio global. Por esse motivo, a liberalização comercial do setor de serviços tem sido objeto da maioria dos acordos regionais de comércio celebrados a partir de 1990. As normas sobre serviços estabelecidas por esses acordos coexistem com as normas do GATS, criadas no âmbito da OMC. Não obstante, o Brasil e o Mercosul celebraram pouquíssimos acordos regionais de comércio, apenas no eixo Sul/Sul. Dentre esses acordos, o único que contém normas e procedimentos concretos para a liberalização do comércio de serviços é o ACE Nº 35, entre Mercosul e Chile. Assim, verifica-se que o Mercosul não possui um modelo claro de normas para a abertura do setor de serviços. Não há diretrizes de política externa comum a respeito do tema, a despeito da relevância econômica desse setor para o Brasil e para os demais Estados-membros do bloco. Por sua vez, os principais players do comércio internacional - Estados Unidos, Índia, China e União Europeia - estão inseridos em redes de preferências comerciais envolvendo bens e serviços, que foram construídas ao longo das últimas décadas. Os acordos regionais celebrados por esses players são um importante parâmetro para um modelo de acordo regional em serviços a ser desenvolvido para o Mercosul. Para que o Brasil e o Mercosul não corram fiquem alijados desse processo de integração econômica, é necessário que se engajem no em negociação de preferências comerciais no setor de serviços com players importantes do comércio internacional. Para tanto, devem desenvolver um modelo próprio de regras para a abertura comercial do setor de serviços em acordos regionais de comércio, de forma a estarem mais capacitados para negociar esses acordos. / International trade in services is becoming more important for national economies and for the global commerce. Therefore, rules for the liberalization of the services sector are included in most of the regional trade agreements executed as of 1990. The rules established by these agreements coexist with the WTO rules established by the GATS. Nevertheless, Brazil and Mercosur have signed very few regional trade agreements, which are exclusively South/South agreements. Among these agreements, the only one that contains specific rules and proceedings for the liberalization of the services sector is ACE N ° 35, between Mercosur and Chile. Thus, Mercosur does not have established a pattern concerning regional trade agreement rules in the services sector. There are no common foreign policy guidelines on the subject, despite the economic importance of this sector for Brazil and for the other Member States. The major international trade players - United States, India, China and the European Union have built trade preferences networks involving goods and services over the past decades. Regional trade agreements concluded by those players are an important parameter for a pattern of regional trade agreement rules related to services to be developed by the Mercosur. In order to avoid that Brazil and Mercosur are excluded from this economic integration process, it is necessary to engage in the negotiation of trade preferences in the service sector with major international trade players. Mercosur should develop its own set of rules for the liberalization of the service sector in regional trade agreements as to become more prepared to negotiate such agreements.

<p>The EPA&rsquo / s will have an impact on regional integration in Africa, especially in the SADC region. The region has been split between the SADC and ESA EPA configuration therefore impacting on regional integration objectives set out under the SADC Trade Protocol.The EPA&rsquo / s will be concluded separately with six of the sub groupings under the ACP grouping. With the EU-SADC EPA negotiations has come a problem of overlapping of membership of the different regions which has created confusion and conflicts. Members of Southern African Development Cooperation (SADC) did not all enter into the EU-SADC EPA has one. The EU-SADC EPA configuration consists of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Tanzania. The rest of the SADC member states are negotiating with the EU-ESA configuration. With South Africa having been allowed into the negotiations, its role should be examined and what it can contribute to the negotiations. Another conflict that has been created is the fact that South Africa has its own bilateral agreement with the EU thus putting stain on the trade relationship between South African and the rest of the SADC countries.</p>

Special and differential treatment (SDT) provisions in GATT were created to assist developing countries achieve economic progress while assimilating into the multilateral trading system. Despite these intentions, global trade imbalances still persist. Within this context, I focus on the region of East Asia which has experienced astounding growth in just several decades, propelling it far beyond other developing country regions. Although international trade continues to be the crucial factor driving growth in the region, reliance on SDT has in certain circumstances hindered development. As such, East Asia should seek alternatives to SDT. In that vein, I argue that sustainable growth and trade liberalization can be achieved by enhancing integration through a regional trade agreement. I further discuss various proposals for an East Asian trade agreement such as ASEAN+3, FTAAP, and EARTA. Finally, I highlight the importance of governance and identify several institutions essential for a successful regional arrangement.

Special and differential treatment (SDT) provisions in GATT were created to assist developing countries achieve economic progress while assimilating into the multilateral trading system. Despite these intentions, global trade imbalances still persist. Within this context, I focus on the region of East Asia which has experienced astounding growth in just several decades, propelling it far beyond other developing country regions. Although international trade continues to be the crucial factor driving growth in the region, reliance on SDT has in certain circumstances hindered development. As such, East Asia should seek alternatives to SDT. In that vein, I argue that sustainable growth and trade liberalization can be achieved by enhancing integration through a regional trade agreement. I further discuss various proposals for an East Asian trade agreement such as ASEAN+3, FTAAP, and EARTA. Finally, I highlight the importance of governance and identify several institutions essential for a successful regional arrangement.

<p>The EPA&rsquo / s will have an impact on regional integration in Africa, especially in the SADC region. The region has been split between the SADC and ESA EPA configuration therefore impacting on regional integration objectives set out under the SADC Trade Protocol.The EPA&rsquo / s will be concluded separately with six of the sub groupings under the ACP grouping. With the EU-SADC EPA negotiations has come a problem of overlapping of membership of the different regions which has created confusion and conflicts. Members of Southern African Development Cooperation (SADC) did not all enter into the EU-SADC EPA has one. The EU-SADC EPA configuration consists of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Tanzania. The rest of the SADC member states are negotiating with the EU-ESA configuration. With South Africa having been allowed into the negotiations, its role should be examined and what it can contribute to the negotiations. Another conflict that has been created is the fact that South Africa has its own bilateral agreement with the EU thus putting stain on the trade relationship between South African and the rest of the SADC countries.</p>

Dans un contexte où les négociations commerciales multilatérales languissent dans une impasse, les accords commerciaux régionaux ACR prennent de l’élan. Cette thèse doctorale cherche à faire avancer la connaissance sur ce domaine. C’est grâce au modèle de gravité du commerce que trois chapitres supportés par des analyses économétriques appliqués ont été mis au point.Le premier chapitre examine les effets sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce attribuables aux ACR, le système généralisé de préférences (SGP) et l’appartenance à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce OMC. Plusieurs spécifications économétriques et techniques d’estimation ont été testées. Particulièrement Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), qui se présente comme la technique la plus recommandée pour contenir des biais bien connues et des problèmes d’endogénéité. Cette recherche a été conduite avec un modèle de gravité du commerce international qui comporte 153 pays sur la période 1980-2012. Les résultats montrent systématiquement qu’un effet positif et significatif sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce est à attendre après l’entrée en vigueur d’un ACR. De même, des effets positifs mais peu importants, voir nuls sont accordés à la participation au sein de l’OMC. La spécification qui utilise PPML et qui contrôle l’influence de l’hétérogénéité inobservable montre un effet non-significatif pour le SGP. Le deuxième chapitre, coécrit avec mon directeur de thèse Jean-Marc Siroën, explore quel est l’effet de l’hétérogénéité des ACR sur le cadre de l’approfondissement de l’intégration. Nous envisageons pouvoir déceler si les ACR qui sont plus profonds contribuent plus à la création de commerce que ceux qui sont moins profonds. Nous avons recours à deux bases de données récemment ouverts au public. La première appartenant à l’OMC et la deuxième a la World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA). Nous procédons à créer des indicateurs crédibles de l’approfondissement de l’intégration pour passer à les tester dans un modèle de gravité. Nous trouvons qu’un effet positif et significatif peut-être accordé aux accords les plus profonds, indépendamment que l’indicateur testé soit un indicateur additive où un indicateur obtenu par l’Analyse de correspondance multiple (ACM). De même cet effet est constaté pas seulement dans les accords qui comportent des clauses classiquement négociées sur le cadre de l’OMC, mais aussi dans les accords qui dépassent cette dimension. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à étudier l’existence des potentiels de commerce entre la Colombie et l’Union Européenne. Des prédictions dans l’échantillon après des estimations avec PPML et effets fixes qui varient dans le temps nous indiquent que des potentiels de commerce existent avec l’Autriche, la République Tchèque, la Finlande, la France, l’Allemagne, la Hongrie, la Suède et la Pologne. Dans le sens inverse la Suède, l’Irlande, la Finlande et Pologne détiennent une marge importante à gagner dans le marché colombien. Des tests de sensibilité ont été effectués pour garantir la robustesse de ces résultats. / Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have surged in a context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations. This doctoral thesis intends to advance scientific knowledge in the field. Thus, thanks to a gravity model theoretical framework, three chapters of applied empirical econometrics analysis have been completed. The first chapter examines the effects of RTAs, the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) and World Trade Organization memberships on bilateral trade flows. I put into practice different econometric specifications and estimation methods, notably Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), which is the one that better seems to contend with well-known biases and endogeneity problems. I conduct this research with an international trade gravity model estimated across 153 countries from the year 1980 to 2012.I consistently found a strong positive impact of regional trade agreement RTAs on most specifications and low or non-significant results for WTO membership. The estimates from the PPML method that includes controls for unobserved heterogeneity show non-significant effects of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on trade.The second chapter, co-authored with my supervisor Jean-Marc Siroën, explores the effect of heterogeneity of RTAs in the scope of deep integration. We intend to determine if deeper RTAs promote trade more effectively than less ambitious agreements. We make use of two recently available data sets from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA) to generate credible indicators of deep integration. Additive and Multiple Correspondence Analysis derived indicators for the depth of the agreements are then computed and their significance is tested in a gravity model. We find that deeper agreements increase trade more than shallow ones, whereas the provisions they included are within or outside of the WTO domain.The third chapter investigates the existence of trade potentials between Colombia and the EU. I obtain in-sample predictions after the estimation of a gravity model with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. I control for unobserved omitted variable bias by the inclusion of exporter and importer time varying fixed effects, and run a series of sensitivity analysis.Untapped trade potentials are found between Colombia and a group of EU countries in both directions of the trade flows. Exports from Colombia have a gap to bridge with Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Sweden. In the other direction, Sweden, Ireland, Finland and Poland have an interesting margin to gain in the Colombian market.