Made available in DSpace on 2009-11-18T19:00:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 rosanaroal.pdf: 564383 bytes, checksum: 3fde0a8704d147b75e045309c621d576 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / The main subject of this study is the consensus analysis of negotiations of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Generally speaking, delays and interruptions caused by controversies and impasses end up becoming strong efficiency problems which jeopardize the consensus building during any negotiation. As a justification, the target of this study is to identify processes to help obtain, efficiently, agreements in the RTAs negotiations. Its final objective was to search for theoretical tools and techniques to be applied in situations of stoppage in a sense of eliminating the difficulties or making them at least easier to deal with. Secondarily other theoretical points of view were considered with the intention of understanding how strategies and theoretical tools can contribute in each/or different scenario of the negotiation. Through the different ways of looking at it for the conduction of the negotiations, for evaluating the dimensions of the negotiations and in order to build up the consensus, the researcher was able to understand the perception and the interpretation of the subject in view. At last the conclusion was that the applicability of the chosen framework is positive in helping solve problems and controversies as well as building up the consensus during the negotiations. / Esse trabalho aborda como tema principal o estudo da construção de consenso em negociações de Acordos Regionais de Comércio (ARCs). Nas negociações em geral, atrasos e paralisações, ocasionados por controvérsias e impasses, podem constituir um forte problema de eficiência na construção de consenso. Como justificativa, diante da problemática, esse trabalho visa identificar processos que auxiliem a obter, eficientemente, acordos nas negociações. Seu objetivo final foi a busca por instrumentos teóricos e técnicas que pudessem ser aplicados em situações de paralisações, no sentido de eliminá-las ou amenizá-las. Como objetivo secundário, foram estudadas outras abordagens teóricas no intuito de entender, sob diversas óticas, como estratégias e instrumentos teóricos contribuem mais eficientemente em certas situações e/ou negociações. Através das diferentes abordagens escolhidas para avaliação das dimensões presentes nas negociações e para construção de consenso, ficou possível ao pesquisador a percepção e interpretação do fenômeno estudado. Ao final, concluiu-se positivamente sobre a aplicabilidade do arcabouço teórico escolhido, no auxílio na solução problemas de controvérsias e impasses, bem como, na construção de consenso nas negociações.

O trabalho apresentado trata do comércio entre os Estados de Goiás e São Paulo durante a Primeira República, comércio este feito por meio de um importante circuito comercial que se intensificou a partir das últimas décadas do século XIX e as primeiras do século XX, com a expansão da economia cafeeira paulista e o desdobramento de seu setor de transportes rumo a Goiás. Por meio da Companhia Mogiana de Estradas de Ferro, continuada pela Estrada de Ferro Goiás, o setor de transportes paulistas se desdobrou, fazendo do Estado de Goiás uma das regiões às quais o complexo cafeeiro ligava-se e recorria em momentos em que a produção paulista passava por algum percalço. Nesse contexto, quando a economia paulista aumentava a demanda por produtos que os goianos podiam fornecer principalmente o gado e o arroz o circuito goiano reagia, aumentando a sua produção. Assim, ao mesmo tempo em que os paulistas podiam recorrer a Goiás, os goianos viram-se ligados à economia regional mais dinâmica do período, onde encontraram grande mercado para os seus produtos, tornando-se um dos maiores produtores de gado e arroz do Brasil na década de 1920. Para a realização do trabalho, foram consultados um amplo grupo de fontes, cujas principais são as Mensagens dos Presidentes de Estado de Goiás, São Paulo e Minas Gerais já que o circuito goiano cruzava o Triângulo Mineiro relatórios das ferrovias envolvidas, jornais locais, atas de câmaras municipais, inventários post-mortem etc. / The present work deals with trade between the states of Goiás and São Paulo during the First Republic, this trade done through an important commercial circuit that has intensified since the last decades of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century, with the expansion of the coffee in São Paulo state and the unfolding of its transport sector towards Goiás, through Mogiana Railroads, continued by Goiás Railroad, the transportation of Paulista sector unfolded, making the State of Goiás a region in which the coffee complex turned to in times when São Paulo production passed through setbacks . In this context, when the state economy increased the demand for products that Goiás could provide - mainly cattle and rice - Goiás circuit reacted by increasing their production. Thus , while the Paulistas could turn to Goiás, Goiás people found themselves linked to the most dynamic regional economic period , where they found large market for their products , making it one of the largest producers of cattle and rice in Brazil in the 1920s . To conduct the study, we found a large group of sources , which are the main messages from the Presidents of the State of Goiás, São Paulo and Minas Gerais - since the goiano circuit crossed Triangulo Mineiro - reports on the involved railroads, local newspapers, minutes of municipalities, postmortem inventories etc.

Cette thèse vise à contribuer aux récents débats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale entre les pays Africains. Elle le fait en abordant la triptyque Accords Régionaux de Commerce(ACRs), bien-être et conflits.Le continent Africain fait face aujourd’hui à deux enjeux majeurs de gouvernance : l’intégration régionale et la gestion des conflits armés. En effet, les performances commerciales des pays africains restent toujours marginales comparativement au reste du monde. Et ce, malgré les différentes politiques commerciales mises en œuvre depuis les années 70 (politique d'import-substitution, accord régional nord-sud, etc.…). Parmi ces politiques commerciales, les gouvernements Africains ont décidé de privilégier les accords régionaux en vu d’accroître le commerce entre les pays membres. Ces accords ont-ils eu l'effet escompté ? Dans quelle mesure ?Si on se réfère au point de vue largement partagé, la réponse semble être négative. Cependant cette réponse ignore les bénéfices politiques potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale. A ce titre, le travail présenté ici étudie l'effet des accords régionaux africains sur le commerce et le bien-être. Cela en utilisant les derniers développements de la théorie du commerce international ainsi que les meilleures techniques d'estimations des équations de gravité. Deuxièmement, Nous analysons l'effet de l'augmentation du commerce sur la probabilité de survenance d'une guerre civile à la fois de façon théorique et empirique. Les résultats obtenus, nous permettent de conclure que sans la signature des ACRs, près de la moitié des échanges entre leurs membres n'auraient pas été réalisé. D'autre part, cette thèse affirme que le commerce, à la fois domestique et international permet de diminuer le risque de conflit civil en Afrique. / This thesis aims to contribute to recent debates on the potential benefits of trade openness among African countries. This, by addressing the triptych regional trade agreements, welfare and conflict.The African continent is currently facing two major governance challenges: regional integration and the management of armed conflicts. Indeed, the trade performance of African countries remains marginal compared to the rest of the world. This is despite the different trade policies implemented since the 1970s (import substitution policy, North-South regional agreement, etc.). Among these trade policies, African governments have decided to focus on regional agreements in order to increase trade among member countries. Have these agreements had the expected effect ? To what extent ?If we refer to popular belief, the answer seems to be no. However, this answer ignores the potential political benefits of trade openness. As such, the work presented here first examines the effect of African regional agreements on trade and welfare. This is done using the latest developments in international trade theory and the best techniques for estimating gravity equations. Second, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of increased trade on the probability of a civil war occurring. The results obtained allow us to conclude, on the one hand, that nearly half of the trade between members of trade agreements in Africa would not have been possible without the signing of the RTAs. On the other hand, both domestic and international trade, reduces the risk of civil conflict in Africa.

Fifteen countries which are members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have embarked on a regional integration initiative. In 1996, a trade protocol that aimed to increase trade among members by removing trade barriers was signed. In the year 2000, this protocol was implemented, leading to a Free Trade Area (FTA) in 2008. More than 85 % of SADC trade was free of customs duties from 2008 onwards. However, while custom tariffs were reduced, the share of SADC trade did not show any improvement over the tenyear period after implementing the trade protocol. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to examine the factors which contributed to lack of improvement in SADC trade, particularly the role of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). One of the main challenges in analysing NTMs in SADC is the unavailability of relevant information. An SADC NTM database was built as a repository of official NTMs. In order to quantify NTMs, a database was classified, similarly to the international database. Agricultural products at HS 4-digit level for ten SADC countries were included in this repository, and groupedinto six main categories; namely animal products, cereals, horticultural products, oilseeds, industrial and processed products. The trade data challenges within SADC countries inadvertently prescribed the econometric methods to apply for the set objectives of the study. The two main challenges of SADC trade data are missing data for some years and high percentage of zero trade flows. A latent threshold gravity model was employed with hierarchical specification to control for country effects. The hierarchical model captures individual country effects, such as the impact of NTMs on trade volumes, and thus intra-SADC trade. Such impact was then assessed when an additional NTM is introduced or increases trade volumes. The two effect models were examining the attributes of changes in regional trade, as well as those attributes of change in NTMs. The effects NTMs were incorporated into the model by weighting the number of NTMs by share of trade in the region, as well as ranks of country NTMs within product groups. Types of NTMs which were estimated are Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and an aggregation of all other NTMs which do not belong to the two groups. Results show that there is evidence NTMs were increasing at the same period when tariffs were being reduced. Using the inventory methods of evaluating presence and prevalence of NTMs, it was also evident that NTMs are used across most agricultural products. The percentage of products affected by NTMs in 2010 was much higher than in 2000. The econometric model results show that all gravity model variables, GDP, border and language were consistent with the theoretical expectations.Distance does nothave significant influence on SADC trade. The reason for this has to do with the trading pattern of SADC countries, which is very high between contiguous members, compared to non-contiguous members. The estimation of zero observed trade, using a threshold model, provided additional understanding of the role and reasons for such trade. The estimated effects of the observed zero trade showed that if this threshold is high, implying that trade costs (NTMs) are restricting trade, then zero trade was observed. When high percentage of zero trade is observed, then intra-SADC trade remains small or declines. However, if the threshold is low, intra-SADC trade increases, as was observed in the case of industrial products. The overall results confirm that NTMs do have an impact on intra-SADC trade. Industrial and cereal products are more responsive to NTMs than the other five product groups. A unit change in NTMs by regional trade members has more effects on intra- regional trade than a unit change in trade value. That is the case because the SADC is already exchanging a large share of its total trade with non-SADC members. Therefore, attention should be given to addressing the way NTMs are introduced. One of the important findings from the study is that the intra-SADC trade is affected more by the effect of an additional NTM, than an additional unit of trade in value. The effect of addressing NTMs is one and half more than those of additional trade value. So, in order to improve intra-SADC trade performance, focus must on addressing the NTMs and growing trade. In addressing NTMs, it does not necessarily require removing or even reducing them. It is about making it easy to comply with them. SADC trade can be improved substantially by aiming to harmonise NTMs and overall policies. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / PhD / unrestricted

While concessions to labour mobility at the international level seem off the agenda, with the General Agreements on Trades in Services essentially tabled, the past decades have produced a proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs), some of which are facilitating labour mobility specifically. In this paper, the author first conducts a comparative overview of RTAs that have a form of labour mobility programmes: namely, ECOWAS, ASEAN, the European Union, NAFTA, CARICOM and MERCOSUR. Building on an overview of the regulatory frameworks, institutions and legal instruments of these RTAs, the author seeks to find if patterns or lessons to be learned emerge that are relevant from a global perspective and to enhance the legal architecture of international labour mobility. The findings show positive outcomes, with some RTAs generating trade benefits and even moving forward with a common passport based on the newly shared regional identity, and at times even creating dispute settlement and legal systems for regional litigious matters. On the other hand, this exercise also points to various problems such as the poor implementation of the labour mobility provisions, to overly strict restrictions based on skill and to difficulty securing documents to benefit from the labour mobility programmes - in some of the agreements. In the second part, the author discusses these challenges faced in these regional systems. She notes that prioritising skilled as opposed to low-skilled workers has not yielded a comparative advantage and may also be fostering irregular movements. She also highlights that trade liabilities emerge from the association of countries with similar levels of development and that it accentuates the North-South paradigm. These problems disrupt access to the benefits of the programmes, which ultimately creates irregular migrations and uneven labour standards for migrant workers. Finally, the author finds that most RTAs reviewed are developing their own legal frameworks with limited interest for the international instruments available, which are at best a source of inspiration. In the third part, the author invites the reader to challenge many preconceived ideas on international mobility emerging from the first two sections, and shares her thoughts on ways forward to build an international framework, based on existing scholarly work and considering the unpopularity of the GATS. She concludes with a discussion on ‘new regionalism’ as an alternative until a shared international framework to facilitate migrations is set up, with the possibility of a merger between RTAs from the North and the South. This, she argues, could possibly unleash the full benefits of labour mobility such as increased GDPs, poverty reduction and tackling irregular migrations; benefits that have not been entirely felt to date.

The objective of this paper is to assess the bilateral exports from an origin to a destination, in the context of countries belonging to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether or not the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) leads to trade creation or trade diversion, or both. To study this, a panel gravity model is employed with 135 countries, from 2000-2014, using a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood method (PPML). To study the impact of AFTA on trade creation/diversion, a set of three dummy variables are used, denoting whether the origin country belongs to ASEAN, whether the destination country belongs to ASEAN and finally, whether both origin and the destination countries belong to ASEAN. Along with AFTA, five other Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) are also taken into account. The main finding of this paper is that there is no pure trade creation nor pure trade diversion due to AFTA, but rather a significant export trade creation, that is, ASEAN’s exports to the rest of the world is positive and significant. Future policy implications could include measures to strengthen the regional economic cooperation amongst the members of ASEAN.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / The Great Lakes Region has long been viewed as a land of untapped economic potential due to, amongst other factors, the failures of the Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries (ECGLC)1 and the Rwandan genocide. The region has many opportunities and common initiatives despite tensions among its core countries. Cross-borders trade, common infrastructures and common border security zones operations have shown that regional integration is possible within the region. From the Dar-Es-Salaam Conference and Declaration2 in November 2004, and thereafter, the signing of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) Pact3 in Nairobi, in 2006 the Group of Friends (GoFs) and the member states plus international non-governmental organisations (NGOs) took a stance to build for the future of the region. They created this new regional integration initiative in order to achieve peace. Peace has multiple dimensions and implications among which poverty alleviation and building of common future in the region are crucial and conducive to increase of population resources.4 Poverty alleviation, sustainable management of common infrastructures, trade and security can be effectively achieved by integrating economically the region.

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay estimates a demand function for compressed natural gas as a fuel substitute to diesel fuel for firms with hybrid fleets. The data is from the Energy Information Administration, for the years 1989 to 2009, for 47 states. Results show that an increase of $0.10 in the price of diesel fuel will increase compressed natural gas demand by 5.59%. The second essay focuses on regional trade agreements (RTAs). A number of studies have found that RTAs significantly increase members' trade flows. While recent studies have begun to explore the reasons for this, none have examined whether the RTA trade effect varies systematically with the number and type of policy areas covered by the agreement. While the empirical trade literature has shed considerable light on the trade-creating ability of RTAs (Grant and Lambert, 2008), much less is known about why these agreements are so successful. In this study, we draw on a new database from the World Trade Organization of trade policy areas covered by RTAs to examine whether the degree of trade liberalization is an important determinant of the RTA trade effect. An augmented, theoretically consistent gravity equation is developed to explore the effects of RTAs on trade, conditional on the policy areas they include. In particular, we investigate two policy areas that are particularly important for agricultural trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT). The results suggest that harmonization of non-tariff measures inside RTAs matters: Agreements that liberalize these policies increase members' agricultural trade by an additional 62 percent compared to agreements that do not. We conclude that studying the components of RTAs -- in particular, the policy areas covered by these agreements -- is important when analyzing the determinants of RTA trade effects. The third essay uses Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to study the effect of membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the WTO on trade flows. Existing GATT/WTO literature is not univocal as to whether membership in the GATT/WTO increases trade flows. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used in the presence of theoretical uncertainty to address whether membership in the GATT/WTO plays a role in the gravity model. Several datasets are examined: a dataset from a previous study; and two datasets compiled for this study, world trade and agricultural trade. Results show, for all three sets of data, that membership in the GATT/WTO does belong in the gravity equation and increases trade flows. / Ph. D.

No / This book explores economic developments across Europe in relation to its apparent segmentation, as disparities widen between core and periphery countries. In contrast to previous literature, the scope of analysis is extended to Europe as a continent rather than confining it solely to the European Union, thereby providing the reader with greater insight into the core/periphery nexus. The authors commence with a critical appraisal of economic thinking in relation to regional trade agreements and monetary integration. In relation to a number of EU economies, the book addresses issues of a liquidity trap, deflation, and twin deficits, together with the interconnection between exchange rates and current account balances. Importantly, they extend the discussion of segmentation through a series of focused case studies on Russia, Brexit and emergence of the mega-regionals.

This study examines the impact of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine on agriculture trade and agriculture businesses in the region. We argue that the Association Agreement is a Regional Trade Agreement in accordance with provisions of the GATT, and thereby apply established arguments of the positive and negative effects of the Association Agreement. To analyse the impact and establish a trend, we have utilised data from EU’s agricultural imports from Ukraine, Ukraine’s agriculture production output, and EU exports from one of Ukraine’s largest grain exporters. The agriculture commodities used to represent the agriculture data in the analysis are corn, wheat, seed oils, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.  To support our discussion of the trends depicted in the data, we have applied the principles of the Theory of Free Trade, and its opposing theory, Protectionism. The findings suggest that the Association Agreement has facilitated a policy shift in the Ukrainian agriculture industry towards EU and away from Russia. However, we cannot limit out the possibility that this shift was inevitable with or without the Association Agreement considering Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine since 2014. Ukrainian agriculture exports to the EU have gradually increased since the implementation of the Association Agreement, and we infer that the Association Agreement plays a role in this increase. Our findings also suggest that agriculture businesses in the frontline five countries have been negatively impacted by the Autonomous Trade Measures which were introduced under the Association Agreement, but we argue that this was never the intention of the legislation. Lastly, we find that Multilateralism is achieved through a regionalist policy in this specific case, but that due to unforeseen circumstances does not reach its full potential.