Special and differential treatment (SDT) provisions in GATT were created to assist developing countries achieve economic progress while assimilating into the multilateral trading system. Despite these intentions, global trade imbalances still persist. Within this context, I focus on the region of East Asia which has experienced astounding growth in just several decades, propelling it far beyond other developing country regions. Although international trade continues to be the crucial factor driving growth in the region, reliance on SDT has in certain circumstances hindered development. As such, East Asia should seek alternatives to SDT. In that vein, I argue that sustainable growth and trade liberalization can be achieved by enhancing integration through a regional trade agreement. I further discuss various proposals for an East Asian trade agreement such as ASEAN+3, FTAAP, and EARTA. Finally, I highlight the importance of governance and identify several institutions essential for a successful regional arrangement.

<p>The EPA&rsquo / s will have an impact on regional integration in Africa, especially in the SADC region. The region has been split between the SADC and ESA EPA configuration therefore impacting on regional integration objectives set out under the SADC Trade Protocol.The EPA&rsquo / s will be concluded separately with six of the sub groupings under the ACP grouping. With the EU-SADC EPA negotiations has come a problem of overlapping of membership of the different regions which has created confusion and conflicts. Members of Southern African Development Cooperation (SADC) did not all enter into the EU-SADC EPA has one. The EU-SADC EPA configuration consists of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Tanzania. The rest of the SADC member states are negotiating with the EU-ESA configuration. With South Africa having been allowed into the negotiations, its role should be examined and what it can contribute to the negotiations. Another conflict that has been created is the fact that South Africa has its own bilateral agreement with the EU thus putting stain on the trade relationship between South African and the rest of the SADC countries.</p>

Dans un contexte où les négociations commerciales multilatérales languissent dans une impasse, les accords commerciaux régionaux ACR prennent de l’élan. Cette thèse doctorale cherche à faire avancer la connaissance sur ce domaine. C’est grâce au modèle de gravité du commerce que trois chapitres supportés par des analyses économétriques appliqués ont été mis au point.Le premier chapitre examine les effets sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce attribuables aux ACR, le système généralisé de préférences (SGP) et l’appartenance à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce OMC. Plusieurs spécifications économétriques et techniques d’estimation ont été testées. Particulièrement Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), qui se présente comme la technique la plus recommandée pour contenir des biais bien connues et des problèmes d’endogénéité. Cette recherche a été conduite avec un modèle de gravité du commerce international qui comporte 153 pays sur la période 1980-2012. Les résultats montrent systématiquement qu’un effet positif et significatif sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce est à attendre après l’entrée en vigueur d’un ACR. De même, des effets positifs mais peu importants, voir nuls sont accordés à la participation au sein de l’OMC. La spécification qui utilise PPML et qui contrôle l’influence de l’hétérogénéité inobservable montre un effet non-significatif pour le SGP. Le deuxième chapitre, coécrit avec mon directeur de thèse Jean-Marc Siroën, explore quel est l’effet de l’hétérogénéité des ACR sur le cadre de l’approfondissement de l’intégration. Nous envisageons pouvoir déceler si les ACR qui sont plus profonds contribuent plus à la création de commerce que ceux qui sont moins profonds. Nous avons recours à deux bases de données récemment ouverts au public. La première appartenant à l’OMC et la deuxième a la World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA). Nous procédons à créer des indicateurs crédibles de l’approfondissement de l’intégration pour passer à les tester dans un modèle de gravité. Nous trouvons qu’un effet positif et significatif peut-être accordé aux accords les plus profonds, indépendamment que l’indicateur testé soit un indicateur additive où un indicateur obtenu par l’Analyse de correspondance multiple (ACM). De même cet effet est constaté pas seulement dans les accords qui comportent des clauses classiquement négociées sur le cadre de l’OMC, mais aussi dans les accords qui dépassent cette dimension. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à étudier l’existence des potentiels de commerce entre la Colombie et l’Union Européenne. Des prédictions dans l’échantillon après des estimations avec PPML et effets fixes qui varient dans le temps nous indiquent que des potentiels de commerce existent avec l’Autriche, la République Tchèque, la Finlande, la France, l’Allemagne, la Hongrie, la Suède et la Pologne. Dans le sens inverse la Suède, l’Irlande, la Finlande et Pologne détiennent une marge importante à gagner dans le marché colombien. Des tests de sensibilité ont été effectués pour garantir la robustesse de ces résultats. / Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have surged in a context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations. This doctoral thesis intends to advance scientific knowledge in the field. Thus, thanks to a gravity model theoretical framework, three chapters of applied empirical econometrics analysis have been completed. The first chapter examines the effects of RTAs, the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) and World Trade Organization memberships on bilateral trade flows. I put into practice different econometric specifications and estimation methods, notably Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), which is the one that better seems to contend with well-known biases and endogeneity problems. I conduct this research with an international trade gravity model estimated across 153 countries from the year 1980 to 2012.I consistently found a strong positive impact of regional trade agreement RTAs on most specifications and low or non-significant results for WTO membership. The estimates from the PPML method that includes controls for unobserved heterogeneity show non-significant effects of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on trade.The second chapter, co-authored with my supervisor Jean-Marc Siroën, explores the effect of heterogeneity of RTAs in the scope of deep integration. We intend to determine if deeper RTAs promote trade more effectively than less ambitious agreements. We make use of two recently available data sets from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA) to generate credible indicators of deep integration. Additive and Multiple Correspondence Analysis derived indicators for the depth of the agreements are then computed and their significance is tested in a gravity model. We find that deeper agreements increase trade more than shallow ones, whereas the provisions they included are within or outside of the WTO domain.The third chapter investigates the existence of trade potentials between Colombia and the EU. I obtain in-sample predictions after the estimation of a gravity model with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. I control for unobserved omitted variable bias by the inclusion of exporter and importer time varying fixed effects, and run a series of sensitivity analysis.Untapped trade potentials are found between Colombia and a group of EU countries in both directions of the trade flows. Exports from Colombia have a gap to bridge with Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Sweden. In the other direction, Sweden, Ireland, Finland and Poland have an interesting margin to gain in the Colombian market.

L’intérêt pour la politique industrielle a fait un retour remarqué dans le contexte post consensus de Washington. Mais ce regain d’intérêt de la littérature survient dans un environnement international qui pose des défis majeurs pour la conduite de politiques industrielles. En effet, le mode dominant d'insertion dans l'économie mondiale au cours des trois dernières décennies a été celui de la libéralisation des comptes courants et de capitaux, réduisant les marges de manœuvre des gouvernements pour le choix et la conduite de politiques industrielles aussi bien de facto que de jure. La thèse procède à une évaluation qualitative et comparative des contraintes sur l’utilisation des instruments de la politique industrielle sur 36 Accords Commerciaux Régionaux de types Nord-Sud et Sud-Sud : 10 accords avec les États-Unis, 12 avec l’Union Européenne, 6 avec la Chine et 8 avec l’Inde. La thèse cartographie les engagements de ces accords qui influent sur les instruments de la politique industrielle dans trois domaines interdépendants : la régulation des investissements étrangers, les règles sur les brevets, et les règles relatives à la normalisation. Les résultats de cette étude établissent que les accords de type Nord-Sud dépassent systématiquement des engagements des accords de l’OMC, donc rétrécissent voire éliminent leurs flexibilités. En conséquence, l'espace de politique industrielle de jure des pays partenaires se rétrécit à un niveau historiquement bas. Alternativement, les modes de régulation de type Sud-Sud préservent, dans une large mesure, les flexibilités de l'OMC comme résultat de (i) l’affirmation explicite de ces flexibilités ; (ii) la non-inclusion des engagements substantiels allant au-delà des accords de l’OMC. Contrairement aux accords des États-Unis et de l’Union Européenne, la possibilité de jure d’utiliser les mesures de la politique industrielle est donc largement préservée dans le cadre des accords avec la Chine et l’Inde en ce qui concerne : (i) les mesures relatives à la régulation des investissements étrangers qui garantissent leur contribution au développement industriel, tout en évitant les risques associés à ce type d'investissement ; (ii) la mise en place d'un système national de brevet facilitant l’accès à et la diffusion des technologies et des connaissances ; (iii) l’utilisation des normes et des règlements techniques comme instruments pour surmonter les problèmes de coordination inefficiente des investissements, ainsi que comme mécanisme de contrôle accompagnant les différents soutiens apportés par l’État à la production locale. / Lately, interests in industrial policy have made a remarkable comeback in an international environment that holds serious challenges as the integration into the wold economy that took the form of trade, investment, and financial liberalization, in last three decades, has reduced de facto and de jure industrial policy space.The thesis provides a qualitative and a comparative assessment of constraints on the use of industrial policy instruments in the context of the rising regionalism. It reviews 36 North-South and South-South regional trade agreements: 10 Agreements of the United States, 12 Agreements of European Union, 6 Chinese Agreements and 8 Indian Agreements, all with developing countries. It maps commitments that affect industrial policy instruments in three interrelated areas: foreign investment regulation, patent, and standardization. It compares the agreements’ engagements against WTO obligations and each other.Results show that North-South modes of regulation of investment and trade relations go systematically beyond WTO Agreements commitments, narrowing and eliminating its “flexibilities”. As a result, de jure industrial policy space of partner countries shrinks to a historically low level. In turn, the South-South modes of regulation of trade and investment relations preserve WTO “flexibilities” to a large extent, as result of (i) explicit affirmation of these flexibilities, and (ii) the non-inclusion of substantial commitments going beyond WTO agreements.Contrary to the agreements of the United States and the European Union, the de jure possibility to use industrial policy instruments is substantially preserved under the agreements of China and India with respect to: (i) measures aimed at regulating foreign investments in a manner that permits to trigger its industrial development benefits and to avoid its associated risks, (ii) the design of national patent system in manner that facilitates the access to and diffusion of technologies and knowledge, and (iii) the use of standards and technical regulations as instruments to overcome investment coordination failure, and as tools of control mechanism that should be associated with the State’s distributed rent to local producers.

Paralelamente aos esforços dos países, sob a liderança norte-americana, para a construção de um sistema multilateral de comércio mais livre e mais integrado, o pós-guerra assistiu a esforços regionalistas sob a forma de Acordos Regionais de Comércio (ARCs). Impulsionados pela experiência européia, países na América Latina e na África engajaram-se na formação de ARCs nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, sem grande sucesso, marcando o primeiro momento regionalista. A ordem internacional após Guerra Fria foi marcada pelo reavivamento do regionalismo com a celebração de novos ARCs e o relançamento de antigos acordos, marcando o segundo momento. A formação de ARCs, especialmente a explosão de acordos desde a inauguração da OMC, tem suscitado discussões entre o multilateralismo e o regionalismo, se seriam complementares ou contraditórios. A percepção da importância que assumiram os ARCs na teoria econômica e nas relações econômicas internacionais desperta o interesse sobre os motivos que levam os países a formarem esses acordos e a despenderem tanto tempo e esforço em sua formação. De acordo com a análise tradicional, os países buscam os ARCs como forma de aumentar as trocas comerciais e os investimentos entre os países membros por meio da redução de barreiras alfandegárias. Embora estejam presentes nos ARCs e sejam importantes nos cálculos dos países na formação desse acordo, os motivos tradicionais não conferem um explicação completa, especialmente quando se considera novo regionalismo, marcado por grandes avanços nas liberalizações multilateral e unilateral. O fato é que os países não buscam a integração apenas por suas razões econômicas intrínsecas, configuradas nos ganhos tradicionais, os ganhos expressos em seus acordos. Além dos ganhos comerciais, muitas vezes, mais importantes que os ganhos econômicos, os países têm outros objetivos quando aderem a arranjos regionais. Em busca de uma teoria mais completa para explicar a formação de ARCs, este trabalho se apoiará em quatro ganhos não-tradicionais: acesso seguro a mercados, segurança, suporte para reformas domésticas e incremento do poder de barganha. / Alongside with the countries efforts, under the leadership of United States, to the construction of a freer and more integrated multilateral trade system, the post-war period witnessed the regionalist efforts in the form of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Stimulated by the European experience, countries in Latin America and Africa engaged themselves into the formation of RTAs in the 1960\'s and 1970\'s, without much success, determining the first regionalist period. The international order after the Cold War was marked by the revival of regionalism with the signing of new RTAs and the relaunch of old ones, determining the second period. The formation of RTAs, especially the explosion of new agreements since the inauguration of the WTO, has created discussions between multilateralism and regionalism, if they are complementary or contradictory. The perception of the importance assumed by the RTAs in economic theory and in the international economic relations arouses the interest about the reasons that lead countries to form such agreements and spend both time and efforts into their formation. According to the traditional analysis, countries seek RTAs as a way to increase trade and investment among member countries by reducing customs barriers. Despite being present in RTAs and despite being important in the countries calculation during agreements formation, the traditional motives don\'t grant a complete explanation, especially when considering the new regionalism, marked by great progress in the multilateral and unilateral liberalization. The fact is that countries do not seek integration only by its intrinsic economic reasons, configured in the traditional gains, gains that are expressed in their agreements. In addition to trade gains, often, more important than the economic gains, countries have other goals when they join regional arrangements. Searching for a more complete theory to explain the formation of RTAs, this work will be supported by four nontraditional gains: safe markets access, security, support for domestic reforms and increased bargain power.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil

Magister Legum - LLM / The EPA’s will have an impact on regional integration in Africa, especially in the SADC region. The region has been split between the SADC and ESA EPA configuration therefore impacting on regional integration objectives set out under the SADC Trade Protocol.The EPA’s will be concluded separately with six of the sub groupings under the ACP grouping. With the EU-SADC EPA negotiations has come a problem of overlapping of membership of the different regions which has created confusion and conflicts. Members of Southern African Development Cooperation (SADC) did not all enter into the EU-SADC EPA has one. The EU-SADC EPA configuration consists of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Tanzania. The rest of the SADC member states are negotiating with the EU-ESA configuration. With South Africa having been allowed into the negotiations, its role should be examined and what it can contribute to the negotiations. Another conflict that has been created is the fact that South Africa has its own bilateral agreement with the EU thus putting stain on the trade relationship between South African and the rest of the SADC countries.

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACR. / The subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner.

Magister Legum - LLM

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region. / Business Management / M.Admin. (Business Management (International Business))