There are three ways to deal with component failure: reactive maintenance, preventive maintenance, and predictive maintenance. Reactive maintenance is to repair only once something breaks. Preventive maintenance is to repair before it breaks, independent of actual wear. Predictive maintenance is performed on the basis of real time operational data, repairing when components cross a certain degradation threshold.  With classification models one can determine the health state of a component. Regression models, on the other hand, allow the user to calculate a more precise estimate of remaining useful life. Previous research on regression models have exclusively used sensory data while classification models have used both sensory data as well as log-data. Research on predictive maintenance using regression models have found most success using SVM regression, decision trees, random forest regression, artificial neural networks and LSTM models.  Companies have more and more data to their disposal about the performance of their machines, but usually in the form of log-data. The goal of this research is to find if it is possible to use log-data for regression models. If this is the case, more sophisticated regression models can be used to apply predictive maintenance more accurately on a broader scale than is currently the case. The project was performed through a case study at a company in the semiconductor industry in the Netherlands, with years of log-data of their product that are gradually degrading over time. After quantifying the log-data and trying all kinds of different regression models in combination with different time scales, the results were unilaterally abysmal and were unable to make any decent prediction.  The reason for this according to several experts in the field of data science is that there was no in depth understanding of the data. They say it is required to have an integral understanding of the log-data and to closely collaborate with field engineers who know the data in and out. If a field engineer can say something about the degradation of a machine using only the log-data, a machine learning model can do it too. If a machine learning model is unable to purposefully overfit on the training data and the results are bad, there is no signal in the dataset and the task is impossible. It does not matter if the data was originally sensory or log-based, the only thing that matters is understanding what the data means and the presence of the degradation signal within.

Assessment of machine health and prediction of future failures are critical for maintenance decisions. Many of the existing methods use unsupervised techniques to construct health indicators by measuring the disparity between the current state and either the healthy or the faulty states of the system. This approach can work well, but if the resulting health indicators are insufficient there is no easy way to steer the algorithm towards better ones. In this thesis a new method for health indicator construction is investigated that aims to solve this issue. It is based on measuring distance after transforming the sensor data into a new space using a feed-forward neural network. The feed-forward neural network is trained using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, NSGA-II, to optimize criteria that are desired in a health indicator. Thereafter the constructed health indicator is passed into a gated recurrent unit for remaining useful life prediction. The approach is compared to benchmarks on the NASA Turbofan Engine Degradation Simulation dataset and in regard to the size of the neural networks, the model performs relatively well, but does not outperform the results reported by a few of the more recent methods. The method is also investigated on a simulated dataset based on elevator weights with two independent failures. The method is able to construct a single health indicator with a desirable shape for both failures, although the latter estimates of time until failure are overestimated for the more rare failure type. On both datasets the health indicator construction method is compared with a baseline without transformation function and does in both cases outperform it in terms of the resulting remaining useful life prediction error using the gated recurrent unit. Overall, the method is shown to be flexible in generating health indicators with different characteristics and because of its properties it is adaptive to different remaining useful life prediction methods. / Estimering av maskinhälsa och prognos av framtida fel är kritiska steg för underhållsbeslut. Många av de befintliga metoderna använder icke-väglett (unsupervised) lärande för att konstruera hälsoindikatorer som beskriver maskinens tillstånd över tid. Detta sker genom att mäta olikheter mellan det nuvarande tillståndet och antingen de friska eller fallerande tillstånden i systemet. Det här tillvägagångssättet kan fungera väl, men om de resulterande hälsoindikatorerna är otillräckliga så finns det inget enkelt sätt att styra algoritmen mot bättre. I det här examensarbetet undersöks en ny metod för konstruktion av hälsoindikatorer som försöker lösa det här problemet. Den är baserad på avståndsmätning efter att ha transformerat indatat till ett nytt vektorrum genom ett feed-forward neuralt nätverk. Nätverket är tränat genom en multi-objektiv optimeringsalgoritm, NSGA-II, för att optimera kriterier som är önskvärda hos en hälsoindikator. Därefter används den konstruerade hälsoindikatorn som indata till en gated recurrent unit (ett neuralt nätverk som hanterar sekventiell data) för att förutspå återstående livslängd hos systemet i fråga. Metoden jämförs med andra metoder på ett dataset från NASA som simulerar degradering hos turbofan-motorer. Med avseende på storleken på de använda neurala nätverken så är resultatet relativt bra, men överträffar inte resultaten rapporterade från några av de senaste metoderna. Metoden testas även på ett simulerat dataset baserat på elevatorer som fraktar säd med två oberoende fel. Metoden lyckas skapa en hälsoindikator som har en önskvärd form för båda felen. Dock så överskattar den senare modellen, som använde hälsoindikatorn, återstående livslängd vid estimering av det mer ovanliga felet. På båda dataseten jämförs metoden för hälsoindikatorkonstruktion med en basmetod utan transformering, d.v.s. avståndet mäts direkt från grund-datat. I båda fallen överträffar den föreslagna metoden basmetoden i termer av förutsägelsefel av återstående livslängd genom gated recurrent unit- nätverket. På det stora hela så visar sig metoden vara flexibel i skapandet av hälsoindikatorer med olika attribut och p.g.a. metodens egenskaper är den adaptiv för olika typer av metoder som förutspår återstående livslängd.

Predictive maintenance plays a crucial role in preventing unexpected equipment failures and maintaining assets in good operating conditions in various systems. One such scenario where predictive maintenance has been widely used is in battery management systems for electronic vehicles based on lithium batteries, where the risk of failure can be reduced by predicting the remaining useful life of the lithium battery. This project developed a DL model based on Long Short-Term Memory networks which was able to generalize new and various kinds of battery. The model was implemented on a low-cost, low-power using embedded artifcial intelligence, which enables local model execution, reducing costs, time, and risks associated with transferring data to the cloud. To further optimize the model and reduce its memory usage, quantization was applied before porting it to an embedded system based on the STM32 MCU. The results show that the model migration was successful, with low memory cost and no signifcant degradation in accuracy. Finally, the memory usage of the prediction model was also analyzed. / Predictiv underhåll har en avgörande roll för att förebygga oväntade utrustningsfel och bibehålla tillgångar i god driftsvillkor i olika system. Ett scenario där predictivt underhåll har använts mycket är i batterihanteringssystem för elfordon baserade på litiumbatterier, där risken för fel kan reduceras genom att förutsäga den återstående användbarhetsperioden för litiumbatteriet. I det här projektet utvecklades djupinlärningsprediktiva modeller med hjälp av Keras sekventiella modell för att representera en ferlagersneural nätverk och en Lång Korttidsminne modell för tidserieprediktion. Dessa modeller implementerades på en lågkostnad, låglägesmikrokontroller med inbyggd artifcial intelligence, vilket möjliggör lokal modellkörning, vilket reducerar kostnader, tid och risker med att överföra data till molnet. För att ytterligare optimera modellen och minska dess minnesfotavtryck tillämpades kvantisering innan den portades till en inbyggd system baserat på STM32 mikrokontroller. Resultaten visar att modellmigrationen var framgångsrik, med låg minneskostnad och ingen signifkant försämring av precisionen. Slutligen analyserades även minnesanvändningen av prediktionsmodellen.

The growing demand for sustainable technology has led to an increased application of power electronics. As these devices are often exposed to harsh conditions, their reliability is a primary concern for both manufacturers and users. Addressing these reliability challenges involves a set of activities known as Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In PHM, predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is crucial. This prediction relies on identifying failure precursors, which signify the presence of degradation. These precursors are then used to construct a degradation model that enables the prediction of the remaining time that the device can work before failure. The project focuses on examining a MOSFET aging dataset from the NASA PCoE dataset depository and a diode aging dataset from Fraunhofer ENAS. The prediction of the remaining useful life of devices using failure precursors has been done by applying recurrent neural network (RNN) methods. However, the prediction results from a single feature is significantly deviated from the actual values. To improve the prediction, the age of the device was proposed as an additional feature. RNNs with a similar number of weights and RNNs with the same hyperparameters are implemented and their performance is evaluated by the accuracy of prediction. The results show that all the RNN models implemented manage to capture the characteristics of the aging data. Despite its simpler structure, the vanilla RNN manages to produce a comparable result with the GRU and LSTM by simpler mechanism and less number of weights. The results also reveal that the characteristics of the data have a significant impact on the final results. / Den växande efterfrågan på hållbar teknik har lett till en ökad tillämpning av kraftelektronik. Eftersom dessa enheter ofta utsätts för tuffa förhållanden är deras tillförlitlighet ett primärt bekymmer för både tillverkare och användare. Att ta itu med dessa tillförlitlighetsutmaningar innebär en uppsättning aktiviteter som kallas Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). I PHM är det avgörande att förutsäga det återstående användbara livet (RUL). Denna förutsägelse bygger på identifiering av felprekursorer, som anger förekomsten av nedbrytning. Dessa prekursorer används sedan för att konstruera en nedbrytningsmodell som möjliggör förutsägelse av den återstående tiden som enheten kan fungera innan fel. Projektet fokuserar på att undersöka en MOSFET-åldringsdataset från NASA PCoE-datauppsättningen och en diodåldringsdataset från Fraunhofer ENAS. Förutsägelsen av den återstående livslängden för enheter som använder felprekursorer har gjorts genom att använda metoder för återkommande neurala nätverk (RNN). Förutsägelseresultatet från en enskild funktion avviker dock avsevärt från de faktiska värdena. För att förbättra förutsägelsen föreslogs enhetens ålder som en extra funktion. RNN med ett liknande antal vikter och RNN med samma hyperparametrar implementeras och deras prestanda utvärderas av förutsägelsens noggrannhet. Resultaten visar att alla implementerade RNN-modeller lyckas fånga egenskaperna hos åldrande data. Trots sin enklare struktur lyckas vanilj RNN producera ett jämförbart resultat med GRU och LSTM genom enklare mekanism och färre antal vikter. Resultaten visar också att uppgifternas egenskaper har en betydande inverkan på de slutliga resultaten.

Transportsektorn är en av världens största producenter av växthusgas därav är dess avkarbonisering essentiell för att uppnå Parisavtalets mål för CO2-emissioner. Ett viktigt steg för att uppnå dessa mål utförs genom elektrifiering. Litium-jon-batterier (eng. litium-ion batteries, ’LIB’) har blivit väldigt populära energilagringssystem för batteridrivna elektriska fordon (eng. battery electric vehicles, ’BEV’) men tenderar att åldras, precis som alla andra batterier. Därav krävs forskning kring batteriföråldring på grund av nedbrytningsprocessernas inverkan på prissättningen, prestationerna och miljöpåverkan av BEV. Olika modeller används för att beskriva batteriernas åldrande. Datadrivna modeller som förutspår batteriers livstid ökar i popularitet vars noggrannhet och prestationer till stor del beror på indatats kvalitet. Formatet för tidsinhämtade data kräver enorma mängder lagringsutrymme, hög processkapacitet och längre processer; något ’reducerad’ eller ’aggregerad’ data delvis åtgärdar. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att utveckla en metodik för användning av dynamiska fordonsdata i ’aggregerad’ form. Tidsloggade data inhämtade från kallklimatstesting av Scanias BEV-prototyp användes varav interaktionseffekterna mellan diverse fordonsparametrar samt deras effekt på batteriåldring utifrån en batteriåldringsmodell analyserades. Olika tillvägagångssätt för strukturering av dynamiska fordonsdata i modellen undersöktes också. Tolv aggregeringsscenarion designades och testades. Dessutom valdes tre scenarion för uppskattningar och jämförelser av återstående användbar livslängd (eng. remaining-useful-life, ’RUL’) tillsammans med resultat från tidsinhämtade data. Slutligen drogs slutsatser om: parameterinteraktioner, struktur av dynamiska fordonsdata och RUL. Flera framtida utvecklingsområden har också föreslagits bland annat: tester av andra aggregeringstekniker, utöka modellen till tjänstefordon samt kategorisera användningsbeteenden av fordon för att förbättra RUL-uppskattningar. / The transport sector is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas producing sector and it’s decarbonisation is imperative to achieve the CO2 emission targets set by the Paris Agreement. One important step towards achieving these targets is through electrification of the sector. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have become very popular energy storage systems for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, LIBs like all other batteries, tend to age. Hence, the study of the battery ageing phenomena is very essential since the degradation in battery characteristics hugely determines the cost, performance and the environmental impact of BEVs. Different modelling approaches are used to represent battery ageing behaviour. Data-driven models for predicting the lifetime of batteries are becoming popular. However, the accuracy and performance of data-driven models largely depends upon the quality of data being used as the input. Time-sampled format of logging data results in huge data files requiring enormous amounts of storage space, high processing power requirements and longer processing times. Instead, using data in a ’reduced’ or ‘aggregated’ form can help in addressing these issues. This thesis work focuses on developing a methodology for using dynamic vehicle data in an ‘aggregated’ form. Time-sampled data from a Scania prototype BEV truck, recorded during cold climate test, was used. The interaction effects between various vehicle parameters and their effect on battery ageing in a battery ageing model were analyzed. Different approaches to structuring dynamic vehicle data for use in the model were also studied. Twelve aggregation scenarios were designed and tested. Furthermore, three scenarios were selected for making remaining-useful-life (RUL) estimations and compared alongside time-sampled data results. Finally, conclusions about parameter interactions, structuring of dynamic vehicle data and RUL estimations were drawn. Several next steps for future work have also been suggested such as testing other aggregation techniques, extending the model to vehicle fleets and categorizing vehicle usage behaviours to make better RUL estimations.

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a problem that researchers in the prognostics and health management (PHM) community have been studying for decades. Both physics-based and data-driven methods have been investigated, and in recent years, deep learning has gained significant attention. When sufficiently large and diverse datasets are available, deep neural networks can achieve state-of-the-art performance in RUL prediction for a variety of systems. However, for end users to trust the results of these models, especially as they are integrated into safety-critical systems, RUL prediction uncertainty must be captured. This work explores an approach for estimating both epistemic and heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties that emerge in RUL prediction deep neural networks and demonstrates that quantifying the overall impact of these uncertainties on predictions reveal valuable insight into model performance. Additionally, a study is carried out to observe the effects of RUL truth data augmentation on perceived uncertainties in the model.

As a consequence of the recent deregulation in the electrical power production industry, there has been a shift in the traditional ownership of power plants and the way they are operated. To hedge their business risks, the many new private entrepreneurs enter into long-term service agreement (LTSA) with third parties for their operation and maintenance activities. As the major LTSA providers, original equipment manufacturers have invested huge amounts of money to develop preventive maintenance strategies to minimize the occurrence of costly unplanned outages resulting from failures of the equipments covered under LTSA contracts. As a matter of fact, a recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute estimates the cost benefit of preventing a failure of a General Electric 7FA or 9FA technology compressor at $10 to $20 million. Therefore, in this dissertation, a two-phase data analytics approach is proposed to use the existing monitoring gas path and vibration sensors data to first develop a proactive strategy that systematically detects and validates catastrophic failure precursors so as to avoid the failure; and secondly to estimate the residual time to failure of the unhealthy items. For the first part of this work, the time-frequency technique of the wavelet packet transforms is used to de-noise the noisy sensor data. Next, the time-series signal of each sensor is decomposed to perform a multi-resolution analysis to extract its features. After that, the probabilistic principal component analysis is applied as a data fusion technique to reduce the number of the potentially correlated multi-sensors measurement into a few uncorrelated principal components. The last step of the failure precursor detection methodology, the anomaly detection decision, is in itself a multi-stage process. The obtained principal components from the data fusion step are first combined into a one-dimensional reconstructed signal representing the overall health assessment of the monitored systems. Then, two damage indicators of the reconstructed signal are defined and monitored for defect using a statistical process control approach. Finally, the Bayesian evaluation method for hypothesis testing is applied to a computed threshold to test for deviations from the healthy band. To model the residual time to failure, the anomaly severity index and the anomaly duration index are defined as defects characteristics. Two modeling techniques are investigated for the prognostication of the survival time after an anomaly is detected: the deterministic regression approach, and parametric approximation of the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier plot estimator. It is established that the deterministic regression provides poor prediction estimation. The non parametric survival data analysis technique of the Kaplan-Meier estimator provides the empirical survivor function of the data set comprised of both non-censored and right censored data. Though powerful because no a-priori predefined lifetime distribution is made, the Kaplan-Meier result lacks the flexibility to be transplanted to other units of a given fleet. The parametric analysis of survival data is performed with two popular failure analysis distributions: the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The conclusion from the parametric analysis of the Kaplan-Meier plot is that the larger the data set, the more accurate is the prognostication ability of the residual time to failure model.

La maintenance prédictive joue un rôle important dans le maintien des systèmes de production continue car elle peut aider à réduire les interventions inutiles ainsi qu'à éviter des pannes imprévues. En effet, par rapport à la maintenance conditionnelle, la maintenance prédictive met en œuvre une étape supplémentaire, appelée le pronostic. Les opérations de maintenance sont planifiées sur la base de la prédiction des états de détérioration futurs et sur l'estimation de la vie résiduelle du système. Dans le cadre du projet européen FP7 SUPREME (Sustainable PREdictive Maintenance for manufacturing Equipment en Anglais), cette thèse se concentre sur le développement des modèles de détérioration stochastiques et sur des méthodes d'estimation de la vie résiduelle (Remaining Useful Life – RUL en anglais) associées pour les adapter aux cas d'application du projet. Plus précisément, les travaux présentés dans ce manuscrit sont divisés en deux parties principales. La première donne une étude détaillée des modèles de détérioration et des méthodes d'estimation de la RUL existant dans la littérature. En analysant leurs avantages et leurs inconvénients, une adaptation d’une approche de l'état de l'art est mise en œuvre sur des cas d'études issus du projet SUPREME et avec les données acquises à partir d’un banc d'essai développé pour le projet. Certains aspects pratiques de l’implémentation, à savoir la question de l'échange d'informations entre les partenaires du projet, sont également détaillées dans cette première partie. La deuxième partie est consacrée au développement de nouveaux modèles de détérioration et les méthodes d'estimation de la RUL qui permettent d'apporter des éléments de solutions aux problèmes de modélisation de détérioration et de prédiction de RUL soulevés dans le projet SUPREME. Plus précisément, pour surmonter le problème de la coexistence de plusieurs modes de détérioration, le concept des modèles « multi-branche » est proposé. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, deux catégories des modèles de type multi-branche sont présentées correspondant aux deux grands types de modélisation de l'état de santé des système, discret ou continu. Dans le cas discret, en se basant sur des modèles markoviens, deux modèles nommés Mb-HMM and Mb-HsMM (Multi-branch Hidden (semi-)Markov Model en anglais) sont présentés. Alors que dans le cas des états continus, les systèmes linéaires à sauts markoviens (JMLS) sont mis en œuvre. Pour chaque modèle, un cadre à deux phases est implémenté pour accomplir à la fois les tâches de diagnostic et de pronostic. A travers des simulations numériques, nous montrons que les modèles de type multi-branche peuvent donner des meilleures performances pour l'estimation de la RUL par rapport à celles obtenues par des modèles standards mais « mono-branche ». / Predictive maintenance plays a crucial role in maintaining continuous production systems since it can help to reduce unnecessary intervention actions and avoid unplanned breakdowns. Indeed, compared to the widely used condition-based maintenance (CBM), the predictive maintenance implements an additional prognostics stage. The maintenance actions are then planned based on the prediction of future deterioration states and residual life of the system. In the framework of the European FP7 project SUPREME (Sustainable PREdictive Maintenance for manufacturing Equipment), this thesis concentrates on the development of stochastic deterioration models and the associated remaining useful life (RUL) estimation methods in order to be adapted in the project application cases. Specifically, the thesis research work is divided in two main parts. The first one gives a comprehensive review of the deterioration models and RUL estimation methods existing in the literature. By analyzing their advantages and disadvantages, an adaption of the state of the art approaches is then implemented for the problem considered in the SUPREME project and for the data acquired from a project's test bench. Some practical implementation aspects, such as the issue of delivering the proper RUL information to the maintenance decision module are also detailed in this part. The second part is dedicated to the development of innovative contributions beyond the state-of-the-are in order to develop enhanced deterioration models and RUL estimation methods to solve original prognostics issues raised in the SUPREME project. Specifically, to overcome the co-existence problem of several deterioration modes, the concept of the "multi-branch" models is introduced. It refers to the deterioration models consisting of different branches in which each one represent a deterioration mode. In the framework of this thesis, two multi-branch model types are presented corresponding to the discrete and continuous cases of the systems' health state. In the discrete case, the so-called Multi-branch Hidden Markov Model (Mb-HMM) and the Multi-branch Hidden semi-Markov model (Mb-HsMM) are constructed based on the Markov and semi-Markov models. Concerning the continuous health state case, the Jump Markov Linear System (JMLS) is implemented. For each model, a two-phase framework is carried out for both the diagnostics and prognostics purposes. Through numerical simulations and a case study, we show that the multi-branch models can help to take into account the co-existence problem of multiple deterioration modes, and hence give better performances in RUL estimation compared to the ones obtained by standard "single branch" models.

Cette thèse porte sur le diagnostic et le pronostic pour l’aide à la maintenance de systèmes complexes. Elle présente deux approches de diagnostic/pronostic qui permettent de générer les indicateurs utiles pour l’optimisation de la stratégie de maintenance. Plus précisément, ces approches permettent d’évaluer l’état de santé et de prédire la durée de vie résiduelle du système. Les approches présentées visent en particulier à pallier le problème d’absence d’indicateurs de dégradation. Les développements sont fondés sur l’utilisation d’observateurs, de formalisme de Modèle de Markov Caché, des méthodes d’inférences statistiques et des méthodes de prédiction de séries temporelles à base d’apprentissage afin de caractériser et prédire les modes de fonctionnement du système. Les deux approches sont illustrées sur des exemples de dégradation d’un système de régulation de niveau d’eau, d’une machine asynchrone et d’une batterie Li-Ion. / The research presented in this thesis deals of diagnosis and prognosis of complex systems. It presents two approaches that generate useful indicators for optimizing maintenance strategies. Specifically, these approaches are used to assess the level of degradation and estimate the Remaining Useful Life of the system. The aim of these approaches is to overcome for the lack of degradation indicators. The developments are based on observers, Hidden Markov Model formalism, statistical inference methods and learning-based methods in order to characterize and predict the system operating modes. To illustrate the proposed failure diagnosis/prognosis approaches, a simulated tank level control system, an induction motor and a Li-Ion battery were used.

La complexification des systèmes et la réduction du nombre de capteurs nécessitent l’élaboration de méthodes de surveillance de plus en plus efficaces. Le travail de cette thèse s’inscrit dans ce contexte et porte sur le diagnostic et le pronostic des Systèmes à Événements Discrets (SED) temporisés. Les réseaux de Petri stochastiques partiellement mesurés sont utilisés pour modéliser le système. Le modèle représente à la fois le comportement nominal et le comportement dysfonctionnel du système. Il permet aussi de représenter ses capteurs à travers une mesure partielle des transitions et des places. Notre contribution porte sur l’exploitation de l’information temporelle pour le diagnostic et le pronostic des SED. À partir d’une suite de mesures datées, les comportements du système qui expliqueraient ces mesures sont d’abord déterminés. La probabilité de ces comportements est ensuite évaluée pour fournir un diagnostic du système en termes de probabilité d’occurrence d’un défaut. Dans le cas où une faute est diagnostiquée, une approche permettant d’estimer la distribution de sa date d’occurrence est proposée. L’objectif est de donner plus de détails sur cette faute afin de mieux la caractériser. Par ailleurs, la probabilité des comportements compatibles est exploitée pour estimer l’état actuel du système. Il s’agit de déterminer les marquages compatibles avec les mesures ainsi que leurs probabilités associées. À partir de cette estimation d’état, la prise en considération des évolutions possibles du système permet d’envisager la prédiction de la faute avant son occurrence. Une estimation de la probabilité d’occurrence de la faute sur un horizon de temps futur est ainsi obtenue. Celle-ci est ensuite étendue à l’évaluation de la durée de vie résiduelle du système. Enfin, une application des différentes approches développées sur un cas d’un système de tri est proposée. / Due to the increasing complexity of systems and to the limitation of sensors number, developing monitoring methods is a main issue. This PhD thesis deals with the fault diagnosis and prognosis of timed Discrete Event Systems (DES). For that purpose, partially observed stochastic Petri nets are used to model the system. The model represents both the nominal and faulty behaviors of the system and characterizes the uncertainty on the occurrence of events as random variables with exponential distributions. It also considers partial measurements of both markings and events to represent the sensors of the system. Our main contribution is to exploit the timed information, namely the dates of the measurements for the fault diagnosis and prognosis of DES. From the proposed model and collected measurements, the behaviors of the system that are consistent with those measurements are obtained. Based on the event dates, our approach consists in evaluating the probabilities of the consistent behaviors. The probability of faults occurrences is obtained as a consequence. When a fault is detected, a method to estimate its occurrence date is proposed. From the probability of the consistent trajectories, a state estimation is deduced. The future possible behaviors of the system, from the current state, are considered in order to achieve fault prediction. This prognosis result is extended to estimate the remaining useful life as a time interval. Finally, a case study representing a sorting system is proposed to show the applicability of the developed methods.