This thesis comprises three principal essays, each of which provides a contribution to the literature on the nonparametric approach to demand analysis. In each essay, I develop novel techniques that follow in the revealed preference tradition, and apply them to tackle a series of questions that concern the mechanisms underlying consumer spending decisions. Each technique developed is tightly linked to a particular nonparametric theory of choice behaviour and is explicitly designed for use with a finite set of observations. My work draws heavily upon results from finite mathematics, into which I integrate insights from information theory and integer programming. The output of this endeavor is a set of methodologies that are largely free of auxiliary assumptions over the form of the unobserved structural functions of interest. Providing greater detail on the work to come, my first essay extends and clarifies the nonparametric approach to forecasting demand behaviour at new budget regimes. Using insights from information theory and integer programming, I construct an operational nonparametric definition of global rationality and develop a methodology that facilitates the recovery of globally rational individual demand predictions. This is the first attempt in the literature to develop a systematic methodology to impose global rationality on nonparametric demand predictions. The resulting forecasts allow for unrestricted preference heterogeneity in the population and I demonstrate how these predictions can be used for coherent welfare analysis. In my second and third essays, I prove new revealed preference testability axioms for models that extend the traditional neoclassical choice framework. Specifically, in my second essay, I address the intertemporal allocation of spending by collectives, whilst my final essay integrates taste variation into the utility maximisation framework. In both of these essays, I develop my testable results into practical algorithms that allow one to recover salient features of individual preferences. In my second essay, a methodology is developed to recover the minimal intrahousehold heterogeneity in theory-consistent discount rates, whilst my final essay develops a quadratic programming procedure that facilitates the recovery of the minimal interpersonal and intertemporal heterogeneity in tastes that is required to rationalise observed choice patterns. Applying these techniques to consumption micro-data yields new empirical insights that are of relevance to the applied literatures on time discounting, family economics and the public policy debate on tobacco control.

In a controlled lab experiment, we investigate hypothetical biases in the value of time by comparing stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) values attached to unexpected waiting times. The SP and RP choice sets are identical in terms of design with the only difference being that the RP choices have real consequences in terms of unexpected waiting times and monetary incentives. We find a substantial hypothetical bias with the average SP value of time being only 71% of the corresponding RP value. The bias is mainly driven by participants who have scheduling constraints during the time of the unexpected wait. Scheduling constraints are taken into account to a much lesser extent in the SP setting than in the RP setting, presumably because only in the latter, the consequences of ignoring them are costly. We find evidence that this effect is stronger for persons with relatively low cognitive ability.

Stated preference and revealed preference are two commonly conducted non-market value evaluation methods which can also be applied to make evaluation of forest ecosystem. In the application of these evaluation methodologies, there always exists limitation from the data collection and empirical analysis. In the dissertation here, I extend the traditional evaluation methods with novel design or statistical analysis approaches to solve the practical problem we met in evaluation of forest ecosystem. The first and second chapters are based on stated preference methods. The first chapter employ both the mail survey and on-site survey to investigate the preference for attributes of low-impact timber harvesting programs. In the second chapter, we recruit three interest groups for on-site survey and compare their preference for the low-impact timber harvesting programs. In these first two chapters, choice modeling method is employed to elicit the respondents' preferences, and I also use bootstrap method to get robust estimation results for small sample size data. The last chapter employed revealed preference method to evaluate the economic losses from hemlock damages caused by forest pest. Three different interpolation methods are employed to scale-up the analysis from sites to states. Based on the findings of all three chapters, we can see that these survey design and statistical methods help to overcome the limitations in empirical analysis of forest ecosystem and make more robust inferences for design forest protection policies. / Ph. D.

The aim of this research was to construct a freight mode choice model, from the perspective of New Zealand freight shippers, identifying the possibility of mode substitution effects. Shipper’s freight modal choice depends on freight demand and infrastructure as well as the quality of service characteristics of alternative modes, such as transport cost, delivery time, reliability, damage and loss and frequency of service. Freight logistics characteristics, such as the attributes of the shipper, the attributes of the commodities to be transported, and the spatial attributes of shipments, strongly influence modal choice. In New Zealand, due to the heterogeneity of firms and issues of confidentiality and reliability of data, relatively little research has been done on modelling freight mode choice. This research involved revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) surveys of representative freight shippers and agents. User-specific data make it possible to better identify the dependence between shipper’s mode shift behaviour and freight logistics in New Zealand circumstances. Moreover, by applying a discrete choice approach, the possibility of mode substitution effects was investigated. This research approach was prompted by substantial changes in New Zealand’s freight transport patterns due to the increasing use of logistic processes, and previously developed models using a four-stage approach fail to model elements of firms’ characteristics (i.e. size of shipments, delivery distance, export volume, product shelf-life, size and location of firm, number of road fleets, and relationship with contracted carriers). The outcomes of this research have shown that many of the operational and logistical influences that affect mode choice vary with the shipper and the industry. As a result, public policy makers should recognize that effective policy must consider both the needs of the transportation service provider and user. In particular, the public policy maker should recognize that freight transport mode choice results from an array of interactions among transportation characteristics, logistics characteristics and product characteristics.

The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elicitation method with the highest forecast accuracy by using multiple measures of within-method consistency and by using behavior in two economically relevant games as benchmarks. A derivation of the well-known method by Holt and Laury (American Economic Review 92(5):1644-1655, 2002), where the highest payoff is varied instead of probabilities, emerges as the best MPL method in both dimensions. As we pinpoint each MPL characteristic's effect on the revealed preference and its consistency, our results have implications for preference elicitation procedures in general.

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-05-23T20:58:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AlineRibeiroSilva.pdf: 2359276 bytes, checksum: 279c4a6ea980fe7ea4460d231c7a7603 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-23T20:58:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AlineRibeiroSilva.pdf: 2359276 bytes, checksum: 279c4a6ea980fe7ea4460d231c7a7603 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-09 / The present study aims at identifying the possible connections between foreign trade and economic development. For this is done a review of the main economic theories that may explain the relationship between these two issues. The central point of analysis is to identify the extent to which trade has been the driving force of economic growth and, therefore, the development of the state. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of the state of Maranhão export competitiveness through some indicators of foreign trade on competitiveness revealed in the period 2000-2010. Thus, it seeks to draw a diagnosis of this condition using as criteria the identification of sectors, notably, the performance indicators of the state that refers specifically to the revelation of the foreign trade sector, enabling thus substantiate the relationship between two themes. It is clear, however, that the beneficial effects provided by the external sector are limited in the state, because it lacks the infrastructure (social, economic and institutional) enough for the effects to propagate and thus achieve a higher level development although the rates of economic growth achieved it. However, it seems that something is being done in order to reverse this situation in view of the large investments that are deployed in the state. / O presente estudo objetiva evidenciar as possíveis conexões existentes entre comércio exterior e desenvolvimento econômico. Para tanto é feito uma revisão das principais teorias econômicas que podem explicar as relações entre esses dois temas. O ponto central de análise consistirá em identificar em que medida o comércio exterior tem servido de elemento dinamizador do crescimento econômico e, por conseguinte, do desenvolvimento do estado. Para tanto, se faz necessário, realizar uma análise do estado de competitividade das exportações maranhenses através de alguns indicadores do comércio exterior sobre competitividade revelada no período de 2000-2010. Dessa forma, busca-se traçar um diagnóstico deste estado utilizando como critério a identificação dos setores, notadamente, os indicadores de desempenho do estado que se refere, especificamente, à revelação do setor no comércio exterior, possibilitando, portanto, fundamentar a relação entre os dois temas. Percebe-se, no entanto, que os efeitos benéficos proporcionados pelo setor externo são limitados no estado, pois o mesmo não dispõe das infraestruturas (social, econômica e institucional) suficiente para que os efeitos se propaguem e assim, se alcance um nível maior desenvolvimento apesar das taxas de crescimento da economia alcançadas mesmo. No entanto, parece que algo está se fazendo no intuito de reverter esse quadro, tendo em vista, os grandes investimentos que estão se implantando no estado.

<p>In this thesis I estimate a monetary value of the risk attached to living near a hazardous waste</p><p>site in the town of Teckomatorp. This site is the result of hundreds of rusty leaking barrels of</p><p>toxins being buried in the ground by the company BT Kemi in the 1970’s. Ever since then the</p><p>site has been remediated in several steps and is still contaminated today. For estimating the</p><p>perceived risk of living near this site I use a hedonic price model (HP) which is a form of a</p><p>revealed preference approach. In a HP model the price of a market good is a function of</p><p>different utility-bearing characteristics and the estimated parameters can be used to calculate</p><p>the implicit prices of these characteristics. In this case I use a data set from the National</p><p>Swedish Institute for Building Research (IBF) and regress property price on a number of</p><p>housing characteristics. I compare an estimated town-effect for Teckomatorp with the</p><p>estimates for two control towns: Billeberga and Anderslöv. I can confirm my hypothesis that,</p><p>after controlling for housing characteristics, there is a negative effect on prices of property in</p><p>Teckomatorp. I find that property prices are on average 46878 SEK lower in Teckomatorp</p><p>than in the two control towns.</p>

<p>The Hungarian agricultural sector has undergone substantial changes between 1992 and 2003, which was a period of transformation from command economy to an EU-conform market economy. The question is whether the Hungarian agricultural sector was able to keep its competitiveness despite the extensive transformation. The aim of this paper is to measure the competitiveness of Hungarian agri-food product groups in relation to the ones of the EU-15 during the transformation period. Results indicate that the competitiveness, measured by revealed comparative advantage (RCA), of the studied agri-food product groups has not changed considerably. The strong position of the Hungarian agricultural sector could be maintained because its competitiveness is based on factor endowments, which are not affected by changes of economic policy. The observed moderate fluctuations of competitiveness can be derived to trade concession changes.</p>

The Hungarian agricultural sector has undergone substantial changes between 1992 and 2003, which was a period of transformation from command economy to an EU-conform market economy. The question is whether the Hungarian agricultural sector was able to keep its competitiveness despite the extensive transformation. The aim of this paper is to measure the competitiveness of Hungarian agri-food product groups in relation to the ones of the EU-15 during the transformation period. Results indicate that the competitiveness, measured by revealed comparative advantage (RCA), of the studied agri-food product groups has not changed considerably. The strong position of the Hungarian agricultural sector could be maintained because its competitiveness is based on factor endowments, which are not affected by changes of economic policy. The observed moderate fluctuations of competitiveness can be derived to trade concession changes.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine Turkey&rsquo / s export competitiveness in the first 15 members of the European Union (EU-15 market) against non-EU-15 competitors. The study covers the recent period since the Customs Union agreement signed between Turkey and the EU at the end of 1995. Turkey&rsquo / s position in the EU-15 market is analyzed in detail by focusing upon major dimensions of export competitiveness / such as &lsquo / export similarity&rsquo / , &lsquo / export diversification&rsquo / , &lsquo / intensive and extensive margins&rsquo / , &lsquo / revealed comparative advantages&rsquo / , &lsquo / dynamic market positioning&rsquo / and &lsquo / competitive threat&rsquo / . We use various indexes from the literature and develop some original indexes as our own contributions. In terms the subject-matter, time dimension and data-detail of our study, all indexes utilized in this thesis are applied to Turkey&rsquo / s case for the first time. Examining price and quantity differences across countries and within each industry, Turkey&rsquo / s competitive position in the EU-15 market is analyzed as compared to 30 countries for more than 3000 export-product groups classified according to their technological characteristics. Based on the results, suggestions at the levels of countries, products and technological categories are made for Turkey to improve its export strategy in terms of seizing the existing but unexploited opportunities in the EU-15 market against its competitors. Policy possibilities are also discussed for directing Turkey&rsquo / s competitiveness towards higher value-added products in a rational and strategic way.