This thesis presents a new approach to construction contracting in North America. This new approach is referred to as the New Canadian Contracting Method (NCCM). It has been developed as a result of research into the existing contracting process used in North America generally and in Canada specifically. The NCCM addresses four main issues that were identified in the research, namely: confrontational construction; dispute resolution problems and costs; the project execution team selection process; completion of contracts. The NCCM addresses these issues without being prescriptive or by attempting to address one party's agenda over another. This is because these two approaches have been common to previous and unsuccessful attempts at addressing these issues. The new contracting method proposes the following four elements. First the designer and contractor are selected on a qualification basis. The designer and the contractor may be brought on to the project team at a time when the contractor can add to constructability by having input into production of the working drawings. Second, a commercial risk evaluation process is introduced as a part of the negotiation or tendering stage. This approach is innovative, and allows both the owner and the contractors to have input to the identification and allocation of risk in the contract. Third the administration of the contract involves a Proactive Mediation Process that is designed to reduce the incidence of conflict and lower or eliminate conflict resolution costs. Fourth the close-out of contracts is formalized with a process for realigning the completion of the contract. This is done by reassigning outstanding obligations to the best advantage of all parties. The draft process was tested for validity. The consensus was that, with some modifications (included in the thesis), the NCCM could be useful to the Canadian construction industry.

Risk assessment and risk management now underpin environmental protection in the UK. Risk assessment provides for a structured and systematic analysis of a problem, and is an objective tool to inform risk management decisions. In particular, risk assessment can assist in the prioritisation of management activities to direct resources more effectively to significant risks. However, the application of risk assessment remains ad hoc and often focused on quantified approaches. The problem of how to integrate the results of a risk assessment into decisionmaking processes remains. The objective of this research was to assess whether a knowledgebased approach could be usefully applied to risk management decisions associated with the protection of groundwater. The use of a knowledge-based system offers considerable potential to support regulatory decision-making relating to environmental risks. Such systems utilise expert knowledge to solve specific problems as an expert would but without requiring specialist or skilled users. This research describes the development of a prototype decision-support system to assist non-specialist regulatory personnel, in the prioritisation of risks and management activities relating to groundwater threats from hydrocarbon point-sources. The research focused on the knowledge acquisition process using semi-structured interviews, concept sorting and risk rating to identify the type of information required by the expert in their decision-making processes and also to distinguish any differences of approach between experts and 'non-experts'. A conceptual model was developed that represented expert decision-making and problem solving. This model was used to develop the prototype decision-support system which was subsequently evaluated by experts and users, resulting in system refinements. A positive response to the usability and utility of the system was received from both expert and user groups, suggesting a knowledge-based approach can be usefully applied to risk management decisions associated with the protection of groundwater.

No description available.

Due to the rapid development of computing technology and faster growth of financial industry, Foreign Exchange high-frequency trading has become substantially more prominent to today's market players, especially to bankers and market makers. This research aims at introducing today's FX high-frequency trading structure and discussing how a market maker can effectively reduce downside risk when market faces a huge upward or downward stress. An Exponential Moving Average operator is introduced and implemented using a Matlab software for tick-by-tick data analysis. Simulation framework for market high-frequency data and client trading flow is also introduced and implemented using the Matlab software. Real-time P&L calculation is introduced and used to determine the performance of a proposed risk hedging strategy. On the other hand, due to the financial crisis we experienced in 2007, 2008, and 2009, we analyze the tail risk of foreign exchange market. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been applied to real EUR/USD data, which contains eight-year daily closing exchange rate. An extension of from EVT to Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation is introduced. We also consider the volatility clustering issue in asset returns and demonstrate how GARCH model can be applied for VaR calculation. Lastly, we propose a method of using VaR as a high-frequency risk measure for risk hedging strategies during intra-day trading.

This study examines whether diversification is beneficial to commercial banks using data of U.S., Europe and Asia banks from 1997 to 2003. The empirical results suggest that banks perform better if they diversify between interest and non-interest activities, but this effect is not significant when banks diversify within each of these broad sets of activities. Regional results point out the different effects of commercial banks in U.S., Europe and Asia. My results show that banks earn less risk-adjusted returns from commission, fee and trading income. We conclude that increasing non-interest shares is not as good as expected.

過去的管制相繼解除，再加上充分運作的市場機能，活絡的金融市場，以及近兩年來美金持續貶值，這使得近年來股票、債券，及其他衍生性金融商品在國內、外金融市場蓬勃發展，企業可運用的資金管道及避險工具也更多元化。風險控管已不容忽視，企業決策者如何在風險與報酬中作出適當的取捨，有賴風險的衡量與管理之精確性。 國際清算銀行的巴塞爾銀行監理委員會於1994年7月提出「衍生性金融商品操作與財務風險管理」中，允許金融機構採用風險值(VaR)來衡量所暴露的市場風險。在2004年6月定案之新版巴塞爾協定依舊強調其衡量所暴露市場風險的重要性，以協助投資管理人員、金融機構的專業經理人、及監理機關，對風險控管之衡量。 本文目的在強調投資管理人員及金融機構的專業經理人及財報使用者對風險控管之認知,故本論文以台灣投資人的角度求算VaR，以作為資產配置評估的風險衡量之方法。並應用夏普法則以供決策之制定，它可使決策者在不同預期風險中選擇一適當決策，稱之為VaR夏普法則。在低度相關係數情況下，得以達到分散風險之正面效果。 最後，並引入遠期外匯契約作為規避匯率風險的工具，直接利用遠期契約最適避險策略來規避匯率風險，利用最適避險策略觀察其對各組國家配對的投資組合報酬與風險的影響。以風險值的角度，觀察在不同的國家配對組合中，並考量經濟情勢及貨幣走勢，避險策略確實對於國際投資組合報酬率有正面之影響。依本論文實證結果，由於報酬與風險兩者具有抵換關係，建議投資管理人員及財報使用者除了強調報酬之績效衡量外，同時應重視風險之管理，以降低風險及避免報酬巨幅的波動。

In this essay, Risk and crisis management Conservation policy and normalization production, I discuss how societies, communities and individuals are responsible for the handling of catastrophes and crises. Risk and vulnerability analyzes are parts of modern risk and crisis management. The purpose of these analyzes is to prepare people and organizations for any crises. For managing this it is necessary to comprehend, be able to change mindset in creating concrete tasks and inform others. The purpose of this essay is to analyze modern risk and crisis management by studying empirical material, such as interviews, observations and literature. My aim is to combine these materials and study how they cooperate. One of the findings in this essay is that risk and vulnerability analyzes are of great complexity. These analyzes require a discussion in order to identify the development of the society's crisis management system, as well as the continued support of the individuals that have a responsibility for preventing and preparing their organizations.

This research addressed the question of how information technology (IT) tools influence the perceived risk of consumers in e-commerce transactions in three phases. First, an exposure-driven model of e-commerce transaction perceived risk was developed and tested, providing a theoretical and conceptual basis for this research. Nine salient risk beliefs were modeled as formative dimensions of three risk belief categories based on prior perceived risk research: information misuse risk, performance risk, and functionality inefficiency risk. The model was tested in an online survey of 565 internet users. The results support the proposed construct of e-commerce transaction perceived risk, modeled as formed by the three proposed risk categories, validating the measurement model and finding that the construct was associated as expected with accepted e-commerce constructs in a nomological network. In the second phase, this model was used to examine the ways in which IT tools influence those beliefs. Participants were asked to observe an example of one risk-reducing IT tool (RRIT) and to indicate their willingness to use the tool for reducing the probability of each risk category and risk dimension. This research confirmed that consumers do perceive RRIT as being useful in reducing the probabilities of risk categories, compared to their willingness to adopt a control IT tool or other RRIT for that purpose. The final phase of this research investigates the adoption and influence of RRIT. Participants were shown an example RRIT and were asked to compare a store providing the tool to an identical website that did not provide the tool. This research supported hypotheses that perceived improvements in the probability of one or more of the risk dimensions when an RRIT is provided would lead to an intention to adopt the RRIT, and that the intention to adopt the RRIT would be associated with an improvement in attitude toward buying from a web retailer and the subsequent improvement in intention to buy from a web retailer.

In 1998, 12 students, aged 11-12 years, were identified by primary schools in a socially disadvantaged area of New Zealand as being at risk of negative life outcomes, as a consequence of known adversities in their lives. The students were interviewed, as were their parents and teachers, and they also completed learning assessments and measures of personal and social concerns. The purpose of these evaluations was to identify risk and protective factors in the young people’s lives, and to make estimations of personal resilience. In 2008, nine of the original study participants, who were now aged 21-22 years and in emerging adulthood, were located and were interviewed again. The assessments addressed the participant’s current circumstances, and what had happened for them over the last ten years. The interviews also asked the participants to reflect about 12 resilience dimensions that have been identified in the literature (Masten & Coatsworth, 1998) and whether they considered that they were personally resilient. The recent interview data were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (Smith & Osborn, 2008). The individual analyses show a rich diversity of life paths and, as well, three sets of themes were identified across the case studies; and they are personal relationships, contexts of development (schooling and education, culture, religion, and jobs and careers), and personhood and identity. A resilience model was derived from the integration of the data from the first and second assessments with contemporary resilience studies and theorising. The central idea of the model is that resilient functioning is determined by the nature and quality of relationships within, and across, developmental settings. As a corollary, it is hypothesised that interpersonal relationships influence individual executive functioning, and emotional regulation in particular; and that these cognitive and affective capacities can translate into goal seeking and other constructive actions. The explanation of the resilience model leads onto recommendations for further research on relationships that enhance personal functioning. There are also suggestions for social policy that follow from the exposition, and some guidelines for professional practice with children and families.

The Risk Management approach in project management has been a subject of discussion for quite a number of years now, either through reports and studies by professional institutions, or between general practitioners or project managers in the industry. Yet, this procedure is still not provided as much as the amount predicted by the many studies and research done to identify the benefits and necessity of implementing this process, early in the project life cycle, especially within the construction industry. / Many previous research findings done by many learned researchers have identified the reasons for the lack of use or under use of Risk Management in the conceptual stage. This may be due to complexity of technique; the process of Risk Management is too long and time consuming; lack of information or resources needed for the process; or just general lack of understanding of Risk Management technique by the project managers or practitioners in delivering this service. / It is discussed that the conceptual phase may be the most important stage to conduct Risk Management, since decisions taken in this phase tend to have a significant impact on the final cost. It is also the phase at which the greatest degree of uncertainty about the future is encountered. In response to this type of situation, Risk Management can play an important role in controlling the level of risks and mitigating their effects. / Both a structured questionnaire and interview will be used as the research tools of this thesis, to collect data from the selected professional project managers, based in Australia, that specialise in the construction projects which are deemed as the initiators of the Risk Management process. / The frequency of Risk Management utilisation in the conceptual stage will increase when it is incorporated into company policy or procedures. Yet compared to any existing common tools or techniques that are available, very often project managers implement Risk Management by applying from past experiences which are not transferable to the younger 'practitioners', nor was it able to be documented for future reference. Therefore, during the early phases of the project lifecycle, all stakeholders should participate and be included in a Risk Management workshop where benefits of this service can be encouraged, and 'educated'. / Thesis (MProjectManagement)--University of South Australia, 2004.