In today’s fast-moving world, a company´s ability to align with changes in the market is becoming a major competitive factor. Demand forecasting form the basis of all supply chain planning and is a process that companies often fail to recognize as a key contributor to corporate success. Different contexts and market dynamics creates different challenges for companies to overcome in order to have an efficient forecasting process, matching demand with supply. This master thesis looks at the whole forecasting process, also called forecasting management, at a decentralized global company to identify the main challenges within the process and propose recommendations on how to overcome them. The research is based on a single case study where the forecasting process is investigated using four different dimensions: Functional Integration, Approach, Systems and Performance Measurements. The study identified twelve challenges in the forecasting process where a majority can be connected to issues within information sharing and lack of support in the process. Based on the identified challenges, eight improvement suggestions where developed to target the challenges and improving the process for a decentralized global company. / I dagens snabbt utvecklande och växande landskap så är ett företags förmåga att anpassa sig till marknadens behov en betydande konkurrensfaktor. Säljprognoser utgör grunden för all planering inom försörjningskedjan och är en process som företag ofta inte erkänner som en viktig bidragsgivare till företagets framgång. Olika marknadslandskap och förutsättningar skapar olika utmaningar för företag att bemästra för att kunna bedriva ett effektivt prognosarbete och matcha efterfrågan med utbud. Detta examensarbete tittar på hela prognosprocessen, även kallad prognoshantering, hos ett decentraliserat globalt företag för att identifiera de viktigaste utmaningarna i processen och föreslå rekommendationer om hur man kan övervinna dem. Forskningen bygger på en enda fallstudie där prognosprocessen undersöks utifrån fyra olika dimensioner: Funktionell integration, strategi, system och prestandamätningar. Studien identifierade tolv utmaningar i prognosprocessen där en majoritet kan kopplas till utmaningar inom informationsdelning och brist på stöd i processen. Baserat på de identifierade utmaningarna utvecklades åtta förbättringsåtgärder för att övervinna utmaningarna och förbättra processen för ett decentraliserat globalt företag.

Вопросы развития малого предпринимательства являются важной составляющей концепции социально-экономического роста Российской Федерации. Опыт ведущих стран мира подтверждает необходимость наличия в любой национальной экономике эффективного и высокоразвитого сектора малого бизнеса. Малое предпринимательство традиционно играет роль «живой ткани» экономики, создает новые товары и услуги, новые рабочие места, оперативно реагирует на запросы локального рынка и т. д. Цель исследования – разработка направлений совершенствования учетно-аналитического обеспечения на предприятиях малого бизнеса в сфере торговли и услуг. Научная новизна исследований, проведенных в данной магистерской диссертации, заключается: определены основные показатели анализа хозяйственной деятельности для субъектов малого бизнеса; структурированы особенности методов учета и анализа деятельности на предприятиях малого бизнеса, учитывающие специфику деятельности; предложены направления развития системы внутреннего контроля учетно-аналитической работы деятельности предприятий малого бизнеса в сфере торговли и оказании услуг с учетом условий функционирования. Эффективность рекомендаций заключается в совершенствовании аналитической работы организаций малого бизнеса, а также позволит систематизировать информацию для упрощения и ускорения работы. / The issues of small business development are an important component of the concept of socio-economic growth of the Russian Federation. The experience of the leading countries of the world confirms the need for an efficient and highly developed small business sector in any national economy. Small business traditionally plays the role of the "living tissue" of the economy, creates new goods and services, new jobs, responds promptly to the demands of the local market, etc. The purpose of the study is to develop directions for improving accounting and analytical support at small businesses in the field of trade and services. The scientific novelty of the research conducted in this master's thesis is: the main indicators of the analysis of economic activity for small businesses are determined; the features of accounting methods and analysis of activities at small businesses are structured, taking into account the specifics of the activity; the directions of development of the internal control system of accounting and analytical work of small businesses in the field of trade and services are proposed, taking into account the operating conditions. The effectiveness of the recommendations is to improve the analytical work of small business organizations, and will also allow you to systematize information to simplify and speed up work.

Customer knowledge plays a vital part in organisations today, particularly in sales and marketing processes, where customers can either be channel partners or final consumers. Managing customer data and/or information across business units, departments, and functions is vital. Frequently, channel partners gather and capture data about downstream customers and consumers that organisations further upstream in the channel require to be incorporated into their information systems in order to allow for management information delivery to their users. In this study, the focus is placed on manufacturing organisations using third party distribution since the flow of information between channel partner organisations in a supply chain (in contrast to the flow of products) provides an important link between organisations and increasingly represents a source of competitive advantage in the marketplace. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there is a significant difference in the use of sales and marketing data marts as management information delivery mechanisms in manufacturing organisations in different industries, particularly the pharmaceuticals and branded consumer products. The case studies presented in this dissertation indicates that there are significant differences between the use of sales and marketing data marts in different manufacturing industries, which can be ascribed to the industry, both directly and indirectly. / Thesis (MIS(Information Science))--University of Pretoria, 2002. / Information Science / MIS / unrestricted

現今市場競爭愈來愈激烈，迫使廠商紛紛至海外尋求產品消費市場，在跨國銷售的背景之下，需要有更多可以確定國家選擇、預測銷售及估計需求的方法。而其中可以滿足這些需求的方法之中，就是研究產品跨國擴散型態，藉以瞭解後進國家與領先國家中新產品如何擴散且會如何互相影響 (Douglas and Craig, 1992)。 在眾多的跨國產品中，本研究選擇好萊塢電影做為實證分析的對象。 經由集群分析，本研究發現（一）台灣高首週票房且口碑佳的電影，會遇到假日人潮、有很高的美國總票房、以及很高的美國首週票房；（二）美國影片在美國及台灣映演的每週票房趨勢有差異存在；（三）片商沒有做好影片在台灣映演的檔期歸劃；（四）三群電影中，在影片類型沒有明顯地區別。 經由十二個新產品銷售預測模型的建立：對數線性迴歸模式（LN-Regression Model）（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以OLS估計）、卜瓦松迴歸模式(Poisson Regression Model) （不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以MLE估計）、負二項分配迴歸模式(Negative Binomial Distribution Regression Model) （不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以MLE估計）、Exponential Decay模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Exponential Decay模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Exponential Decay模式＋層級貝氏迴歸模式（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）、Bass連續型擴散模式（以NLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗（以SUR估計）、Bass連續型擴散模式（以NLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗（以SUR估計）、Bass離散型擴散模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、Bass離散型擴散模式（以OLS估計）＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、層級貝氏BASS離散型擴散模式＋迴歸方程式體系（不考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）、層級貝氏BASS離散型擴散模式＋迴歸方程式體系（考慮新產品領先國擴散經驗）（以SUR估計）。本研究發現：（一）在考慮影響後進國的新產品擴散速度時，領先國的擴散經驗為絕對必要的考慮因子；（二）必須使用Bass連續型擴散模式做為建構新產品銷售預測模型的基礎；（三）必須使用Bass連續型擴散模式的NLS估計法估計Bass模型的創新係數p、模仿係數q及市場潛量m。

協同規劃、預測與再補貨(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR)，是目前供應鏈管理下重要的討論議題；台灣近年來由於加入WTO與製造業外移使競爭壓力加劇，全球運籌需求提升，使廠商間的合作更加密切，且近年來企業資訊環境與基礎建設逐漸成熟，有助於協同商務之發展。在CPFR流程與供應鏈協同作業環境下，一個供需雙方協同且績效良好的銷售預測具有關鍵的重要性，是管理決策與協同合作時的重要依據；但是多數的企業並沒有一個結構化、有系統化的預測流程及方法，進行多點且不同方法之預測，這樣的銷售預測較無穩定的品質，亦較難提供管理者合理的數據解釋。 在CPFR流程下，強調買賣雙方透過完整、即時資訊的交流，進行短期、單一銷售預測，以提供雙方後續訂單預測、訂單補貨等決策的依據。本研究利用演算法（類神經網路和演化策略法）找出更適合混合性預測架構的解釋變數，再以較適合於實數解之演化策略法於修改黃蘭禎（2004）的三階段之預測模型架構，最後採用實驗方法，進行模型績效驗證。 / Collaborative Planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) is an important issue of supply chain management currently. Because of the severer competition resulted from entrance into WTO and industry integration, cooperation between Taiwanese companies becomes more intensely; enterprises’ information environment and foundation construction attain to maturity also boost the development of collaboration business. In CPRF process and supply chain operation environment, it is critical that a good performance sale forecasting collaborated by both supplier and buyer sides, and it is also the basis of policy decision and collaboration. However, the majority of the companies lack for a structural and systematical forecasting process to proceed with a multi-points forecasting with different methods. This kind of sale forecasting is less of stable quality and is harder to provide the managers a reasonable statistics explanation. Under the CPRF process, both buyers and sellers are able to obtain the short-term and single sale forecasting by real time information communication. Furthermore, the follow-up order forecasting and replenishment strategy decision can be also established through this process. This research finds the variables that are more suitable to the mixed structure by usage of the algorithms, ANN and Evolution Strategy. And this research uses Evolution Strategy that is more suitable to real question to improve the mixed structure of Huang (2004). In the end, experimentation is adopted in order to verify the performance of the model.

Submitted by SANTIAGO BURGADA (sburgada@maxam.net) on 2015-01-25T12:10:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-02-04T19:27:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-02-11T13:27:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-11T13:34:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTATION SANTIAGO BURGADA CORPORATE INTERNATIONAL MASTERS SUBMISSION VERSION.pdf: 3588309 bytes, checksum: b70385fd690a43ddea32379f34b4afe9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-29 / Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.