Despite recent interest in understanding long-term trends in ocean acidity, natural variations of carbon chemistry on short timescales are still poorly understood. Unfortunately, historical observations of the oceanic CO2 system are relatively few in number. Such data are particularly scarce along the highly productive Canadian Pacific coast. However, hydrographic data such as temperature, salinity, oxygen and nutrients have been collected regularly in this region. I developed a fully cross-validated statistical model to predict the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), a biologically relevant measure of the carbonate system. Different sensitivity tests were performed to assess the robustness of the statistical modelling skill to different model structures. In particular, this study found that in situ temperature and O2 used together were strong predictors of Ωarag. The carbon data used to build this statistical model came from five hydrographic surveys along the Pacific coast of Canada (in July 1998, August 2004, late May 2007, February 2010 and early August 2010) that contain direct measurements of CO2 system parameters. Only data from a depth range of 0-750 m were used, as data from below 750 m showed biases due to calcium carbonate dissolution. Although processes such as solar warming and gas exchange occur in the surface and could possibly introduce biases in the model, I show that these surface data can be included. The ability of the statistical models to compute robust estimates of Ωarag was assessed by exploring the generalizability of the model through cross-validation procedures using different partitions of the data. By predicting lnΩarag rather than Ωarag directly, I obtained a strong and robust predictive relationship. This MLR model form yielded a high value in the squared correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values (0.96) and a low percentage in erroneous prediction of undersaturated conditions (3.1%). This relationship was found to be insensitive to changes in spatial domain or interannual variability in the data. These results suggest that the model can be used to estimate the distribution of Ωarag along the outer west coast of Canada when basic hydrographic data on temperature and O2 are available. Predictions of Ωarag from historical observations (1980-2009) in this region reveal that the saturation horizon (Ωarag=1) tended to be more stable in winter and spring and highly variable and occasionally shallow in summer and fall during and following the upwelling season. Undersaturation with respect to aragonite was more likely to occur at shallower depths over the shelf relative to adjacent offshore waters likely as a result of upwelling. The Ωarag saturation horizon tended to be more variable in depth on the shelf compared to offshore waters. The saturation horizon tended to occur at deeper depths over the Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS) shelf and be more stable with respect to the west coast of Vancouver island (WCVI). Thus, the WCVI may experience adverse effects of ocean acidification more acutely than QCS. The use of this approach may provide insight into natural variability and the key controls of Ωarag in future studies at a low cost. However, this predictive model cannot hind-cast data to evaluate the presence of the anthropogenic signal. / Graduate

Three Essays on Stock Market Seasonality Hyung-Suk Choi 136 pages Directed by Dr. Cheol S. Eun In chapter 1, we examine seasonality in returns to style portfolios, which serve as important benchmarks for asset allocation, and investigate its implications for investment. In doing so, we consider monthly returns on the style portfolios classified by six size/book-to-market sorting and six size/prior-return sorting over the sample period 1927 - 2006. The key findings are: first, as is well documented in the literature, small-cap oriented portfolios are subject to the January effect, but also to the 'negative' September and October effects. Second, cross-style return dispersion exhibits a seasonal pattern of its own (it is largest in January and smallest in August), suggesting possibly profitable trading strategies. Third, our seasonal strategies indeed yield significant profits, as high as about 18.7 % per annum. This profit is mostly attributable to the seasonal autocorrelation in style returns. Lastly, we find substantial seasonal patterns in style returns not only in the U.S. but also in other major stock markets Germany, Japan, and the U.K. Our seasonal style rotation strategy yields economically and statistically significant profits in all of these stock markets. In chapter 2, we examine the abnormal, negative stock returns in September which have received little attention from academic researchers. We find that in most of the 18 developed stock markets the mean return in September is negative and in 15 countries it is significantly lower than the unconditional monthly mean return. This September effect has not weakened in the recent period. Further, the examinations of the various style portfolios in the US market show that the September effect is the most pervasive anomalous phenomenon that is not affected by size, book-to-market ratio, past performance, or industry. Our finding suggests that the forward looking nature of stock prices combined with the negative economic growth in the last quarter causes the September effect. Especially in the fall season when most investors become more risk averse, the stock prices reflect the future economic growth more than the rest of the year. Our investment strategy based on the September effect yields a higher mean return and a lower standard deviation than the buy-and-hold strategy. In chapter 3, we establish the presence of seasonality in the cash flows to the U.S. domestic mutual funds. January is the month with the highest net cash flows to equity funds and December is the month with the lowest net cash flows. The large net flows in January are attributed to the increased purchases, and the small net flows in December are due to the increased redemptions. Thus, the turn-of-the-year period is the time when most mutual fund investors make their investment decisions. We offer the possible sources for the seasonality in mutual funds flows.

Este estudo utilizou os princípios da glacioquímica para determinar e analisar as variações nas concentrações aniônicas de um testemunho de neve e firn obtido pela perfuração no manto de gelo da antártica ocidental no verão austral de 2004/05. O testemunho IC-6 (81°03'S, 79°51'W), de 34,65 m de profundidade, obtido a 750 m de altitude, foi subamostrado em sala limpa (CLASE 100), usando um sistema de derretimento contínuo desenvolvido pela equipe do Climate Change Institute (CCI) da Universidade do Maine (EUA). Esse processo gerou 1.368 amostras para análises por cromatografia iônica, cerca de 58 amostras por metro, permitindo detalhamento sazonal da variabilidade das concentrações dos íons majoritários. O testemunho representa 66 ± 3 anos de dados ambientais, segundo a datação baseada na variação sazonal dos íons Cl-, Na+, Mg+2 e SO4-2. O testemunho de 23,61 m em equivalente d’água, corrigido para variações em densidade, representa uma acumulação liquida média anual de 0,36 m (em equivalente d’água). Assim, a camada ao fundo foi formada no ano de 1938 (± 3 anos). As concentrações iônicas médias medidas no IC-6, são: [(Na+= 66,92 ± 2,32 μg L-1), (K+= 3,31 ± 0,18 μg L-1); (Mg+2= 10,07 ± 0,25 μg L-1); (Ca+2 = 16,93 ± 0,38 μg L-1); (Cl- = 155,74 ± 4,40 μg L-1); (NO3- = 56,01 ± 0,80 μg L-1); (SO4 2 = 55,65 ± 1,36 μg L-1); e (CH3SO3 (MS) = 14,11 ± 1,19 μg L-1)]. As maiores concentrações de Na+, Cl-, e Mg+2 foram interpretadas como picos de invernos, associadas diretamente ao aerossol dos mares circundantes em respostas, provavelmente, a advecção mais intensa de massas de ar (marinho) sobre as plataformas de gelo, e portanto são também traçadores marinhos. Já o perfil (série) de sulfato está em antifase, em relação às variações nas espécies Na+, Cl- e Mg+2. De origem predominantemente marinha, o sulfato total apresentou maiores concentrações durante a primavera e verão (períodos de maior atividade biológica nos mares circumpolares), possivelmente marcando a variação sazonal da atividade biológica na região. Embora em alguns intervalos essa ―antifase‖ não fique tão clara, é o que ocorre na maior parte do testemunho IC-6, condição que auxiliou na interpretação da variação sazonal observada principalmente na série do cloro. O perfil de excesso de sulfato apresenta perfil similar ao de sulfatos total, com picos concomitantes. Além da forte correlação com o íon SO4-2, também é observada uma correlação fraca a moderada com o íon nitrato. Picos concomitantes deste íon com o excesso de sulfato representam eventos episódicos como é o caso das erupções vulcânicas de grande magnitude. A variabilidade da concentração de nitrato não esta associada ao aerossol marinho, como aponta a falta de correlação entre esse ânion e o Cl-, Na+ e Mg2+. Porém, série de nitrato apresenta muitos períodos bem marcados e correlacionados com as concentrações de excesso de sulfato, devendo representar a ocorrência de eventos episódicos, como erupções vulcânicas. Entretanto, a análise de íons maiores nesse estudo não possibilitou a identificação de eventos específicos, será necessário o uso de técnicas complementares para determinação de elementos traços. Sugere-se que o nitrato seria transportado e depositado por massas de ar provenientes da estratosfera ou da alta troposfera e que grandes concentrações dessa espécie poderiam estar associadas ao registro de ocorrências de eventos vulcânicos. Essa característica parece ser coerente com os picos correlacionáveis nos perfis (séries) de nitrato e sulfatos. Além da variação sazonal (observada principalmente no perfil de cloro), foram identificados outros padrões recorrentes no tempo (ciclos), principalmente nas séries de dos íons Na+, Cl- e Mg2+ (origem marinha) e NO3-. O principal ciclo identificado, de aproximadamente 17,3 anos, necessita melhor investigação. A secundária, em torno de 10 anos, estaria associada ao ciclo solar (de 10,7 anos). Também são observados ciclos com períodos entre 2 a 5 anos, que poderiam estar associados ao fenômeno ENOS (El Niño - Oscilação Sul). Ao comparar as concentrações médias do IC-6 com de outros sítios no interior da Antártica, observa-se uma abrupta redução ao atravessar as montanhas Transantárticas em direção ao Polo Sul geográfico. Sugere-se que cordilheira esteja barrando o transporte dos aerossóis marinhos para o interior do continente devido a um efeito orográfico sobre a precipitação. / This study employed glaciochemical principles to determine and analyze the variation of anionic concentrations of a firn and snow core obtained from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet, in the summer of 2004/05. The IC-6 core (81°03'S, 79°51'W), reaching 34.65 m in depth, was extracted at 750 m above sea level. This core was subsampled in a Class 100 clean room, employing a discrete continuous melting system developed by the team at the Climate Change Institute (CCI), University of Maine, USA. This process produced 1,368 samples for ionic chromatographic analyses, approximately 58 samples per meter, permitting a seasonal-scale resolution of the main ion concentrations and variabilities. This core represents 66 ± 3 years of environmental data, according to Cl-, Na+, Mg+2 e SO4-2 ion seasonal variations. The 23.61 m core, in water equivalent, corrected for the density variation, represents an annual net accumulation average rate of 0.36. The deepest layer was deposited in 1938 (± 3 ). Core mean ionic concentrations are: [(Na+= 66,92 ± 2,32 μg L-1); (K+= 3,31 ± 0,18 μg L-1); (Mg+2= 10,07 ± 0,25 μg L-1); (Ca+2 = 16,93 ± 0,38 μg L-1); (Cl- = 155,74 ± 4,40 μg L-1); (NO3- = 56,01 ± 0,80 μg L-1); (SO4 2 = 55,65 ± 1,36 μg L-1); and (CH3SO3 (MS) = 14,11 ± 1,19 μg L-1)]. The largest concentrations of Na+, Cl-, e Mg+2 were interpreted as winter peaks, directly associated with the aerosols from the surrounding seas, probably, in response to the intensification of marine air mass advection on the ice shelves, and, thus, also being marine tracers. The sulphate profile (series) presents an antiphase, with relation to Na+, Cl- e Mg+2 species variations. Predominantly of marine origin, total sulphates presented greater concentrations during Spring and Summer (periods of greater biologic activity in the Southern Ocean), possibly marking the seasonal variation of biologic activity in the region. Although in some intervals of this ―antiphase‖ are not clearly evident, they are consistent throughout most of the IC-6 core, assisting with the interpretation of the observed seasonal variations, particularly when related to chlorine data series. The sulphate excess profile is similar to total sulphate profile, showing concomitant spikes. Besides the strong correlation to tSO4-2 ion, a weak to moderate correlation was observed for nitrate ions. Coinciding peaks for this ion with excess sulphate may represent episodic events, such as presented by volcanic events of great magnitude. The nitrate concentration variability is not associated to marine aerosols, as shown by the lack of correlation between this anion and Cl-, Na+ e Mg2+. The nitrate series presents many well marked periods and seem to be correlated to excess sulphate concentrations, possibly representing the occurrence of episodic events, such as volcanic eruptions. Even so, the major ions analyses proposed by this work did not make the identification of such episodic events clear. Such events need to be addressed with complementary techniques to determine the specific trace elements. These results suggest that nitrate is transported and deposited by stratospheric or high tropospheric air masses, and that great concentrations of this species could be associated to the recorded volcanic events. This characteristic appears to be coherent with the spikes in the nitrate and sulphate profiles. Besides the seasonal variation (observed, principally, in the chlorine profile), other time cycle/patterns were identified, mainly those related to Na+, Cl- e Mg2+ ion series (of marine origin) and NO3-. The main identified cycle, approximately 17.3 years, ensues to be better investigated. A second cycle, presenting a 10 year period, is possibly associated to the solar cycle (10.7 years). Shorter cycles of 2 and 5 year periods could possibly be related to the ENSO phenomenon. On comparing average concentrations of the IC-6 core with other sites, farther within the Antarctic continent, an abrupt reduction was observed, from the Trans-Antarctic mountains to the Geographic South Pole, suggesting that this mountain range could be a barrier for marine aerosol transport to the interior of the continent, due to an orographic effect on the precipitation.

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Este estudo utilizou os princípios da glacioquímica para determinar e analisar as variações nas concentrações aniônicas de um testemunho de neve e firn obtido pela perfuração no manto de gelo da antártica ocidental no verão austral de 2004/05. O testemunho IC-6 (81°03'S, 79°51'W), de 34,65 m de profundidade, obtido a 750 m de altitude, foi subamostrado em sala limpa (CLASE 100), usando um sistema de derretimento contínuo desenvolvido pela equipe do Climate Change Institute (CCI) da Universidade do Maine (EUA). Esse processo gerou 1.368 amostras para análises por cromatografia iônica, cerca de 58 amostras por metro, permitindo detalhamento sazonal da variabilidade das concentrações dos íons majoritários. O testemunho representa 66 ± 3 anos de dados ambientais, segundo a datação baseada na variação sazonal dos íons Cl-, Na+, Mg+2 e SO4-2. O testemunho de 23,61 m em equivalente d’água, corrigido para variações em densidade, representa uma acumulação liquida média anual de 0,36 m (em equivalente d’água). Assim, a camada ao fundo foi formada no ano de 1938 (± 3 anos). As concentrações iônicas médias medidas no IC-6, são: [(Na+= 66,92 ± 2,32 μg L-1), (K+= 3,31 ± 0,18 μg L-1); (Mg+2= 10,07 ± 0,25 μg L-1); (Ca+2 = 16,93 ± 0,38 μg L-1); (Cl- = 155,74 ± 4,40 μg L-1); (NO3- = 56,01 ± 0,80 μg L-1); (SO4 2 = 55,65 ± 1,36 μg L-1); e (CH3SO3 (MS) = 14,11 ± 1,19 μg L-1)]. As maiores concentrações de Na+, Cl-, e Mg+2 foram interpretadas como picos de invernos, associadas diretamente ao aerossol dos mares circundantes em respostas, provavelmente, a advecção mais intensa de massas de ar (marinho) sobre as plataformas de gelo, e portanto são também traçadores marinhos. Já o perfil (série) de sulfato está em antifase, em relação às variações nas espécies Na+, Cl- e Mg+2. De origem predominantemente marinha, o sulfato total apresentou maiores concentrações durante a primavera e verão (períodos de maior atividade biológica nos mares circumpolares), possivelmente marcando a variação sazonal da atividade biológica na região. Embora em alguns intervalos essa ―antifase‖ não fique tão clara, é o que ocorre na maior parte do testemunho IC-6, condição que auxiliou na interpretação da variação sazonal observada principalmente na série do cloro. O perfil de excesso de sulfato apresenta perfil similar ao de sulfatos total, com picos concomitantes. Além da forte correlação com o íon SO4-2, também é observada uma correlação fraca a moderada com o íon nitrato. Picos concomitantes deste íon com o excesso de sulfato representam eventos episódicos como é o caso das erupções vulcânicas de grande magnitude. A variabilidade da concentração de nitrato não esta associada ao aerossol marinho, como aponta a falta de correlação entre esse ânion e o Cl-, Na+ e Mg2+. Porém, série de nitrato apresenta muitos períodos bem marcados e correlacionados com as concentrações de excesso de sulfato, devendo representar a ocorrência de eventos episódicos, como erupções vulcânicas. Entretanto, a análise de íons maiores nesse estudo não possibilitou a identificação de eventos específicos, será necessário o uso de técnicas complementares para determinação de elementos traços. Sugere-se que o nitrato seria transportado e depositado por massas de ar provenientes da estratosfera ou da alta troposfera e que grandes concentrações dessa espécie poderiam estar associadas ao registro de ocorrências de eventos vulcânicos. Essa característica parece ser coerente com os picos correlacionáveis nos perfis (séries) de nitrato e sulfatos. Além da variação sazonal (observada principalmente no perfil de cloro), foram identificados outros padrões recorrentes no tempo (ciclos), principalmente nas séries de dos íons Na+, Cl- e Mg2+ (origem marinha) e NO3-. O principal ciclo identificado, de aproximadamente 17,3 anos, necessita melhor investigação. A secundária, em torno de 10 anos, estaria associada ao ciclo solar (de 10,7 anos). Também são observados ciclos com períodos entre 2 a 5 anos, que poderiam estar associados ao fenômeno ENOS (El Niño - Oscilação Sul). Ao comparar as concentrações médias do IC-6 com de outros sítios no interior da Antártica, observa-se uma abrupta redução ao atravessar as montanhas Transantárticas em direção ao Polo Sul geográfico. Sugere-se que cordilheira esteja barrando o transporte dos aerossóis marinhos para o interior do continente devido a um efeito orográfico sobre a precipitação. / This study employed glaciochemical principles to determine and analyze the variation of anionic concentrations of a firn and snow core obtained from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet, in the summer of 2004/05. The IC-6 core (81°03'S, 79°51'W), reaching 34.65 m in depth, was extracted at 750 m above sea level. This core was subsampled in a Class 100 clean room, employing a discrete continuous melting system developed by the team at the Climate Change Institute (CCI), University of Maine, USA. This process produced 1,368 samples for ionic chromatographic analyses, approximately 58 samples per meter, permitting a seasonal-scale resolution of the main ion concentrations and variabilities. This core represents 66 ± 3 years of environmental data, according to Cl-, Na+, Mg+2 e SO4-2 ion seasonal variations. The 23.61 m core, in water equivalent, corrected for the density variation, represents an annual net accumulation average rate of 0.36. The deepest layer was deposited in 1938 (± 3 ). Core mean ionic concentrations are: [(Na+= 66,92 ± 2,32 μg L-1); (K+= 3,31 ± 0,18 μg L-1); (Mg+2= 10,07 ± 0,25 μg L-1); (Ca+2 = 16,93 ± 0,38 μg L-1); (Cl- = 155,74 ± 4,40 μg L-1); (NO3- = 56,01 ± 0,80 μg L-1); (SO4 2 = 55,65 ± 1,36 μg L-1); and (CH3SO3 (MS) = 14,11 ± 1,19 μg L-1)]. The largest concentrations of Na+, Cl-, e Mg+2 were interpreted as winter peaks, directly associated with the aerosols from the surrounding seas, probably, in response to the intensification of marine air mass advection on the ice shelves, and, thus, also being marine tracers. The sulphate profile (series) presents an antiphase, with relation to Na+, Cl- e Mg+2 species variations. Predominantly of marine origin, total sulphates presented greater concentrations during Spring and Summer (periods of greater biologic activity in the Southern Ocean), possibly marking the seasonal variation of biologic activity in the region. Although in some intervals of this ―antiphase‖ are not clearly evident, they are consistent throughout most of the IC-6 core, assisting with the interpretation of the observed seasonal variations, particularly when related to chlorine data series. The sulphate excess profile is similar to total sulphate profile, showing concomitant spikes. Besides the strong correlation to tSO4-2 ion, a weak to moderate correlation was observed for nitrate ions. Coinciding peaks for this ion with excess sulphate may represent episodic events, such as presented by volcanic events of great magnitude. The nitrate concentration variability is not associated to marine aerosols, as shown by the lack of correlation between this anion and Cl-, Na+ e Mg2+. The nitrate series presents many well marked periods and seem to be correlated to excess sulphate concentrations, possibly representing the occurrence of episodic events, such as volcanic eruptions. Even so, the major ions analyses proposed by this work did not make the identification of such episodic events clear. Such events need to be addressed with complementary techniques to determine the specific trace elements. These results suggest that nitrate is transported and deposited by stratospheric or high tropospheric air masses, and that great concentrations of this species could be associated to the recorded volcanic events. This characteristic appears to be coherent with the spikes in the nitrate and sulphate profiles. Besides the seasonal variation (observed, principally, in the chlorine profile), other time cycle/patterns were identified, mainly those related to Na+, Cl- e Mg2+ ion series (of marine origin) and NO3-. The main identified cycle, approximately 17.3 years, ensues to be better investigated. A second cycle, presenting a 10 year period, is possibly associated to the solar cycle (10.7 years). Shorter cycles of 2 and 5 year periods could possibly be related to the ENSO phenomenon. On comparing average concentrations of the IC-6 core with other sites, farther within the Antarctic continent, an abrupt reduction was observed, from the Trans-Antarctic mountains to the Geographic South Pole, suggesting that this mountain range could be a barrier for marine aerosol transport to the interior of the continent, due to an orographic effect on the precipitation.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:51:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:03:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 10498.pdf: 6854267 bytes, checksum: 0e919f3b8c415c7b067a987074165112 (MD5) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN/CNEN-SP / FAPESP:02/08902-9

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:51:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:07:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Neste trabalho foram estudadas as influências sazonais sobre as concentrações de hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos e n-alcanos no material particulado MP10, em novembro de 2001 a junho de 2002 (n = 23), e entre abril de 2003 e maio de 2004 (n=31), em continuidade aos estudos realizados no inverno de 2000 na RMSP. Todas as coletas do aerossol atmosférico ocorreram no Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas da USP, situado na Cidade Universitária, na região oeste da cidade de São Paulo. Os parâmetros meteorológicos como temperatura, precipitação, umidade relativa, direção e velocidade do vento foram monitorados. Em média, nas estações mais frias foram obtidas as maiores concentrações de MP10, HPA e n-alcanos, em concordância com outros estudos. Os dados foram tratados com algumas ferramentas estatísticas, como análise de componentes principais e estudos das razões diagnósticas, sugerindo algumas fontes de emissões e apontando a emissão veicular como fonte majoritária destes poluentes atmosféricos. / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Please read the abstract in the 00front part of this document / Dissertation (MSc (Clinical Epidemiology))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Clinical Epidemiology / unrestricted

No description available.