Este trabalho apresenta e discute uma proposta baseada na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para predizer o desempenho da empresa-foco em cadeia de suprimentos modelada de acordo com os relacionamentos causais entre medidas de desempenho propostas pelo SCOR (versão 8.0). O uso de sistemas de medição de desempenho para gerenciar o desempenho de cadeias de suprimentos apresenta algumas limitações tais como a dificuldade de interpretação de resultados de natureza qualitativa, assim como a complexidade de um sistema tradicional de medição de desempenho lidar adequadamente com os relacionamentos de causas e efeito entre métricas de desempenho de diferentes processos de negócios ao longo da cadeia de suprimentos. Por outro lado, a lógica fuzzy, uma técnica apropriada para lidar com situações de incerteza e subjetividade, configura-se como uma alternativa interessante. Utilizando uma abordagem de pesquisa quantitativa descritiva, assumiu-se a hipótese de que um modelo de simulação quantitativo poderia ser construído para explicar o comportamento de processos operacionais. Os resultados da simulação mostraram-se bastante consistentes à metodologia SCORmark, proposta pelo Supply Chain Council. Análises estatísticas dos resultados da simulação, baseados no Método de Superfície de Resposta, também confirmaram a relevância dos relacionamentos causais incorporados no modelo. Em geral, os resultados reforçam que a proposição da adoção de um modelo de simulação baseado em lógica fuzzy e nas métricas do SCOR parece ser uma abordagem possível para auxiliar os gerentes no processo de tomada de decisão do gerenciamento do desempenho em cadeias de suprimentos. / This paper presents and discusses a proposal based on the theory of fuzzy sets to predict performance of focus company in a supply chain modeled according to causal relationships among performance metrics proposed by SCOR (version 8.0). The use of performance measurement systems to manage performance of supply chains presents some limitations such as difficulty of interpretation of results of qualitative nature as well as the complexity of having a conventional performance measuring system that can adequately handle cause-and-effect relationships of metrics of performance of different business processes of a supply chain. On the other hand, fuzzy logic, a technique suitable for dealing with uncertainty and subjectivity, becomes an interesting alternative approach. Using a descriptive quantitative approach, the research was based on the assumption that a quantitative simulation model can be built that explain (at least in part) the behavior of operational processes. Results of simulation were very much in line with those of the SCORmark methodology (SCC). Statistical analysis of the simulation results based on surface response method also confirmed the relevance of the causal relationships embedded in the model. In general, the findings reinforces the proposition that adoption of a simulation model based on fuzzy-logic and on metrics of the SCOR model seems to be a feasible approach to help managers in the decision making process of managing performance of supply chains.

Conventional reliability analysis methods assume that a simulation model is able to represent the real physics accurately. However, this assumption may not always hold as the simulation model could be biased due to simplifications and idealizations. Simulation models are approximate mathematical representations of real-world systems and thus cannot exactly imitate the real-world systems. The accuracy of a simulation model is especially critical when it is used for the reliability calculation. Therefore, a simulation model should be validated using prototype testing results for reliability analysis. However, in practical engineering situation, experimental output data for the purpose of model validation is limited due to the significant cost of a large number of physical testing. Thus, the model validation needs to be carried out to account for the uncertainty induced by insufficient experimental output data as well as the inherent variability existing in the physical system and hence in the experimental test results. Therefore, in this study, a confidence-based model validation method that captures the variability and the uncertainty, and that corrects model bias at a user-specified target confidence level, has been developed. Reliability assessment using the confidence-based model validation can provide conservative estimation of the reliability of a system with confidence when only insufficient experimental output data are available. Without confidence-based model validation, the designed product obtained using the conventional reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) optimum could either not satisfy the target reliability or be overly conservative. Therefore, simulation model validation is necessary to obtain a reliable optimum product using the RBDO process. In this study, the developed confidence-based model validation is integrated in the RBDO process to provide truly confident RBDO optimum design. The developed confidence-based model validation will provide a conservative RBDO optimum design at the target confidence level. However, it is challenging to obtain steady convergence in the RBDO process with confidence-based model validation because the feasible domain changes as the design moves (i.e., a moving-target problem). To resolve this issue, a practical optimization procedure, which terminates the RBDO process once the target reliability is satisfied, is proposed. In addition, the efficiency is achieved by carrying out deterministic design optimization (DDO) and RBDO without model validation, followed by RBDO with the confidence-based model validation. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate that the proposed RBDO approach obtains a conservative and practical optimum design that satisfies the target reliability of designed product given a limited number of experimental output data. Thus far, while the simulation model might be biased, it is assumed that we have correct distribution models for input variables and parameters. However, in real practical applications, only limited numbers of test data are available (parameter uncertainty) for modeling input distributions of material properties, manufacturing tolerances, operational loads, etc. Also, as before, only a limited number of output test data is used. Therefore, a reliability needs to be estimated by considering parameter uncertainty as well as biased simulation model. Computational methods and a process are developed to obtain confidence-based reliability assessment. The insufficient input and output test data induce uncertainties in input distribution models and output distributions, respectively. These uncertainties, which arise from lack of knowledge – the insufficient test data, are different from the inherent input distributions and corresponding output variabilities, which are natural randomness of the physical system.

Cars, trains, trucks, telecom networks and industrial robots are examples of products relying on complex embedded software systems, running on embedded computers. Such systems may consist of millions of lines of program code developed by hundreds of engineers over many years, often decades. Over the long life-cycle of such systems, the main part of the product development costs is typically not the initial development, but the software maintenance, i.e., improvements and corrections of defects, over the years. Of the maintenance costs, a major cost is the verification of the system after changes has been applied, which often requires a huge amount of testing. However, today's techniques are not sufficient, as defects often are found post-release, by the customers. This area is therefore of high relevance for industry. Complex embedded systems often control machinery where timing is crucial for accuracy and safety. Such systems therefore have important requirements on timing, such as maximum response times. However, when maintaining complex embedded software systems, it is difficult to predict how changes may impact the system's run-time behavior and timing, e.g., response times.Analytical and formal methods for timing analysis exist, but are often hard to apply in practice on complex embedded systems, for several reasons. As a result, the industrial practice in deciding the suitability of a proposed change, with respect to its run-time impact, is to rely on the subjective judgment of experienced developers and architects. This is a risky and inefficient, trial-and-error approach, which may waste large amounts of person-hours on implementing unsuitable software designs, with potential timing- or performance problems. This can generally not be detected at all until late stages of testing, when the updated software system can be tested on system level, under realistic conditions. Even then, it is easy to miss such problems. If products are released containing software with latent timing errors, it may cause huge costs, such as car recalls, or even accidents. Even when such problems are found using testing, they necessitate design changes late in the development project, which cause delays and increases the costs. This thesis presents an approach for impact analysis with respect to run-time behavior such as timing and performance for complex embedded systems. The impact analysis is performed through optimizing simulation, where the simulation models are automatically generated from the system implementation. This approach allows for predicting the consequences of proposed designs, for new or modified features, by prototyping the change in the simulation model on a high level of abstraction, e.g., by increasing the execution time for a particular task. Thereby, designs leading to timing-, performance-, or resource usage problems can be identified early, before implementation, and a late redesigns are thereby avoided, which improves development efficiency and predictability, as well as software quality. The contributions presented in this thesis is within four areas related to simulation-based analysis of complex embedded systems: (1) simulation and simulation optimization techniques, (2) automated model extraction of simulation models from source code, (3) methods for validation of such simulation models and (4) run-time recording techniques for model extraction, impact analysis and model validation purposes. Several tools has been developed during this work, of which two are in commercialization in the spin-off company Percepio AB. Note that the Katana approach, in area (2), is subject for a recent patent application - patent pending. / PROGRESS

The Thesis focused on hardware based Load balancing solution of web traffic through a load balancer F5 content switch. In this project, the implemented scenario for distributing HTTPtraffic load is based on different CPU usages (processing speed) of multiple member servers.Two widely used load balancing algorithms Round Robin (RR) and Ratio model (weighted Round Robin) are implemented through F5 load balancer. For evaluating the performance of F5 content switch, some experimental tests has been taken on implemented scenarios using RR and Ratio model load balancing algorithms. The performance is examined in terms of throughput (bits/sec) and Response time of member servers in a load balancing pool. From these experiments we have observed that Ratio Model load balancing algorithm is most suitable in the environment of load balancing servers with different CPU usages as it allows assigning the weight according to CPU usage both in static and dynamic load balancing of servers.

Der stetig steigende Flugverkehr führt zu Kapazitätsengpässen an vielen Großflughäfen. Die Möglichkeit des Ausbaus ist häufig aufgrund von Arealmangel und Widerstand aus der Bevölkerung (zumeist durch Umweltgesichtspunkte motiviert) nicht realisierbar. Ein Ausweg bietet hier die Kooperation mehrerer Flughäfen. So kann ein in der Nähe eines Großflughafens angesiedelter Regionalflughafen als zusätzliche Runwaygenutzt werden. Ausschlaggebend hierbei sind die landseitigen Anbindungen beider Flughäfen. Beide müssen zusammen annähernd wie ein Flughafen operieren. Der Optimierung dieses Systems kooperierender Flughäfen widmet sich die vorliegende Arbeit. Es werden zwei Szenarien näher untersucht und bewertet: Konventionelle S-Bahn-Verbindung unter Ausnutzung der vorhandenen Infrastruktur und mit einem fixen Fahrplan (traditioneller Betrieb) Verbindung unter Nutzung einer vollautomatischen Bahn mit bedarfsabhängiger Anpassung der Taktrate Die Modellierung erfolgt hierbei durch eine makroskopische Simulation auf der Basis des SYSTEM DYNAMICS Zugangs nach Forrester. Dieser zeichnet sich besonders durch seine prozessnahe Darstellung aus. In dieser Arbeit wird die Anwendbarkeit von SYSTEM DYNAMICS auf die Modellierung von Passagierströmen an Verkehrsknoten nachgewiesen, die Passagierverzögerung bei der Verknüpfung von Flughäfen ermittelt und der Ressourcenverbrauch, d.h. der Bedarf an Betriebsmitteln für die Verbindung bestimmt. / Steadily increasing air traffic leads to capacity problems at many major airports. In most cases it is not possible to enlarge the airport due to lack of area or resistance of the population (mainly motivated by environmental aspects). One way out is the cooperation of airports. It can be possible to use a smaller airport in the vicinity of a major airport as an additional runway. In this case the land-side connections between both airports are very important. The two airports have to operate like one big airport. This work deals with the optimization of the system of cooperating airports. Two scenarios are analyzed and rated in more detail: Conventional railway connection with utilization of existing infrastructure and with a fixed time table (traditional operational regime) Connection with an automated people mover with demand control schedule For macroscopic modeling the SYSTEM DYNAMICS approach by Forrester is used. The main feature is a very good real world representation. This work shows the applicability of SYSTEM DYNAMICS for modeling passenger flows at traffic junctions, calculates the passenger delay, which occurs between connected airports and specifies the consumption of resources, i.e. equipment necessary for the connection.

Der Prozess der Umformung des geraden embryonalen Herzschlauchs in eine helikal gewundene Herzschleife wird Cardiac looping genannt. Diese Schleifenbildung wird als einer der wesentlichen Formbildungsprozesse des Wirbeltierherzens angesehen, da er die Bauelemente/Segmente des sich entwickelnden Herzens (Sinus venosus, Vorhöfe, Ventrikel, große arterielle Gefäßstämme) annähernd in ihre definitiven topographischen Beziehungen zueinander bringt. Störungen des Cardiac looping führen zu komplexen angeborenen Herzfehlern mit abnormen Verbindungen zwischen den Segmenten des vierkammerigen Herzens (z. B. Double-outlet right ventricle, Congenitally corrected TGA). Die Herzschleifenbildung läuft bei allen Wirbeltierspezies in ähnlicher Weise ab und führt im Normalfall zur Ausbildung einer linksgewundenen Herzschleife, die allgemein als D-Loop bezeichnet wird, da ihre Ventrikel anfänglich nach rechts verlagert werden. Rechtsgewundene Herzschleifen sind äußerst seltene Ergebnisse des Cardiac looping, die sich z. B. beim Situs inversus finden. Sie werden allgemein als L-Loop bezeichnet, da ihre Ventrikel anfänglich nach links verlagert werden.  Das wissenschaftliche Interesse am Phänomen des Cardiac looping fokussiert sich im Wesentlichen auf zwei Fragen: (1.) Welche Faktoren führen zur helikalen Verformung des embryonalen Herzschlauchs? (2.) Welche Faktoren sind dafür verantwortlich, dass bei allen bisher untersuchten Wirbeltieren während der Embryogenese normalerweise nur D-Loops erzeugt werden? Während der letzten zwei Jahrzehnte wurde eine Vielzahl an Genen identifiziert, die wichtige Rollen beim Cardiac looping spielen. Die Frage, wie diese genetischen Informationen in mechanische Kräfte übersetzt werden, welche die Formänderungen der Herzschleife bewirken, blieb bisher größtenteils unbeantwortet. Die älteste Hypothese zur Mechanik des Cardiac looping schreibt die Formänderungen der Herzschleife (ventrale Biegung → einfache helikale Windung → komplexe helikale Windung) Kompressionsbelastungen zu, die aus dem ungleichen Längenwachstum des Herzens und der Perikardhöhle resultieren sollen.  In der vorliegenden Studie wurde die physikalische Plausibilität dieser Hypothese, die ich als wachstumsbedingtes Buckling bezeichne, zum ersten Mal experimentell geprüft. Anhand eines physikalischen Simulationsmodells konnte ich zeigen, dass wachstumsbedingtes Buckling eines geraden elastischen Stabs (Modell des Herzschlauchs) innerhalb einer ihn einengenden halbkugeligen Höhle (Modell der Perikardhöhle) eine Abfolge von Formänderungen erzeugen kann, die derjenigen entspricht, die bei der embryonalen Herzschleifenbildung beobachtet wird. Meine Experimente haben weiterhin gezeigt, dass durch Wachstum bedingtes Buckling unter bilateral symmetrischen Bedingungen links- und rechtshändige Helices in einem Zahlenverhältnis von nahezu 1:1 erzeugt. Bereits geringfügige Links- oder Rechtsverschiebungen des caudalen Endes des elastischen Stabs vor Beginn des simulierten Längenwachstums reichten aus, um den Bucklingprozess in eine Richtung zu lenken, bei der es ausschließlich zur Erzeugung von D- bzw. L-Loops kam. Die biologische Relevanz dieser am physikalischen Modell erhobenen Daten wird anhand von Beobachtungen an biologischen Modellen (Embryonen von Zebrafisch, Krallenfrosch, Axolotl, Huhn, Maus) diskutiert. Hierbei komme ich zu folgenden Schlüssen: (1.) Aus ungleichem Längenwachstum des Herzens und der Perikardhöhle resultierende Kompressions¬belastungen des Herzschlauchs dürften wichtige Beiträge zum Cardiac looping leisten. (2.) Asymmetrische Positionierungen des venösen Herzpols könnten diese Kräfte in Richtung einer 100%igen Erzeugung eines D- bzw. L-Loops lenken.

Fisher’s adaptive sex ratio theory predicts that organisms should invest equally in sons and daughters and the sex ratio at conception should be 1:1. Hamilton’s theory predicts that organisms should adjust sex ratios based on the relative strength of competition within a mating group. Testing sex ratio and sex allocation theories requires variation in sex ratio. Different sex allocation and sex allocation adjustment mechanisms can produce skewed sex ratios. I used Tigriopus californicus, a harpacticoid copepod with extrabinomial variation in sex ratios, to test sex ratio evolution and socially-mediated sex determination. Using artificially selected sex-biased populations, the trajectory of population sex ratios were as expected under Fisher’s theory and sex ratios approached/reached 0.5 proportion males. Populations with overlapping generations had a slower rate of change towards 0.5 than populations with non-overlapping generations. I show that these data are supported by multiple different models: a mechanistic and simulation model. I tested socially-mediated sex determination using seawater conditioned with different local sex ratios of copepods. There were detectable effects found in both wild populations and isofemale lines. However, these effects may be trivial as differences were small between treatments. Sex determination in T. californicus is a complex mechanism, with multiple genetic and environmental components. The complex nature of sex determination in T. californicus and the dynamic nature of their habitat in highly ephemeral splash pools provide a possible explanation for the non-Fisherian sex ratios we see. / Graduate

The aim of this thesis is partly to create a dynamic decision model for Sandvik Machining Solutions distribution flows and partly to evaluate how the stock transfer system logic handle four specific exceptional situations. The purpose is to reduce the total costs while keeping or improving the service level. The thesis presents a total cost model and guidelines for the planning function when deciding the main supplier in the distribution. The thesis also presents a system logic evaluation of the stock transfer logic used by Sandvik Machining Solutions.

Glaciated shelves develop under the influence of a more complex suite of processes than most non-glaciated shelves. Amongst the specific processes are the glacially-influenced sediment supply and the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), which is largely responsible for the complex nature of regional relative sea-levels (RSLs). This study first characterizes the impact of GIA on the Mackenzie-Beaufort region by presenting a new set of RSL curves derived from a modern gravitationally self-consistent sea level model computing the effects of glacio-hydro isostasy, geoid changes, and true polar wander. The results of the RSL model present cross-shelf variations in the order of 100 m and along-shelf of 30 m during the LGM. The model also suggests a different timing and range to the single RSL curve presently used for this region. Depending on the location, the lowstand is modeled between 14 and 12 ka BP and reached between 85 and 140 m below present sea-level. These new findings are used in the second part of the study to evaluate the impacts of GIA along with other factors on the Late Quaternary evolution of the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. SedFlux, a process-based stratigraphic simulation model is used. Uncertainties associated with post-LGM conditions create difficulties in establishing good model parameterization. Thus, simulations are first performed on the Mackenzie Trough area, where data availability permits better evaluation and constraint of parameters that are then applied to the more data poor Eastern Beaufort Shelf environment. The results of the stratigraphic simulations suggest that the ice sheet margin in the Mackenzie-Beaufort region was more extensive than previously assumed. The impact of GIA on the stratigraphy of the Mackenzie Trough is to develop more progradational than retrogradational stratigraphic features. Simulations of the Eastern Beaufort Shelf suggest that a previously dated sample from the Uviluk borehole is not a RSL indicator as previously thought and by taking this into consideration, the borehole stratigraphy can be modeled. Modeling of multiple cycles of glacial/interglacial RSL with glacial outwash deposition supports the interpretation of the Late Quaternary geology suggested by Murton (2009). Finally, glacial outburst floods funnelling through the area would have mostly bypassed the shelf and contributed to its progradation. If flood water were directed to the Mackenzie Trough, the deposits are likely found within the lower wedge. / Graduate

The topic of the diploma thesis is the models for decision support of the management of tourism destination. This is an important topic in tourism all over the world, as tourism destination management is a complex, multidisciplinary and often inflated question. The complexity of the structure and the number of stakeholders is also the reason for being important in today's modern times. Because of the complexity of the whole topic, it is often difficult to grasp the theme as a whole and to consistently explain all the existing variables. At the same time, a number of inaccuracies and errors are generated in connection with the management of the tourist destination. The work uncovers the basic structure of relationships in the destination of tourism and attempts to outline the functioning of the tourism destination management as a whole. The benefit of the thesis is to update the model created by Ing. Petrem Štumpfem Ph.D. in his dissertation work. Another benefit of this work is the generation of scenarios of the likely and anticipated development of the tourist destination of Southern Bohemia.