Title: Numerical study on simultanious equations Author: Vojtěch Šaroch Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: doc. RNDr. Petr Lachout, CSc. Abstract: In this thesis we deal with the simultaneous equation model. In the first chapter we introduce theoretical aspect of this problem, especially estimation procedures and their properties. We mention issues of an identification and an inconsistency of OLS-estimates for simultaneous modeling. In th second chapter we introduce theory of estimation, especially we will focus on the interval estimation and precision. We mention empirical approach too. In the third chapter we perform a numerical study on the simple macroeconomic model of generated dates. We are interested in properties of interval estimations of parameters, the convergence rate, difference between the empirical and theoretical extimation etc. Keywords: simultaneous equations model, interval estimation, empirical estimation 1

Title: Numerical study on simultanious equations Author: Vojtěch Šaroch Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: doc. RNDr. Petr Lachout, CSc. Abstract: In this thesis we deal with simultaneous equation model. In first chapter we introduce to theoretical aspect of this problem, especially estimation procedures and their properties. We mention issues of identification and an inconsistency of OLS-estimates for the simultaneous modeling. In second chapter we introduce theory of estimation, especially we will focus on interval estimation and precision. We mention empirical approach too. In the third chapter we perform a numerical study on simple macroeconomic model on generated dates. We are interested in properties interval estimations of parameters, the convergence rate, difference between empirical and theoretical extimation etc. Keywords: simultaneous equations model, interval estimation, empirical estimation 1

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This paper investigates a new category of influential factors on business cycle synchronization (BCS), so far hardly regarded in the BCS literature: It provides an empirical assessment of the impact of macroeconomic imbalances, as monitored by the European Commission by the scoreboard indicators since 2011, on BCS in the Euozone. We use a quarterly data set covering the period 2002-2012 and estimate the direct and indirect effects of macroeconomic imbalances in the pre- and post-crisis period in a simultaneous equations model. Business cycle correlation between EA members is measured by the recently proposed dynamic conditional correlation of Engle 2002 which can better identify synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of BC than the commonly used measures. We find that appearing differences between EA members in the current account, in government deficit and public debt, in private debt and unit labor cost developments have reduced BCS in the EA, even more in the post-crisis period than before. Moreover, these explanatory factors of BCS, generally reinforce each other and are also influenced by other critical macro imbalances. Since BCS is essential in a monetary union, this paper provides clear support that a stronger, common economic governance would be important for the functioning and survival of the Eurozone. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

我國於民國87年實施兩稅合一制度，為了驗證兩稅合一實施後企業投資與理財行為是否受到顯著的影響，並進而評估財稅當局實施兩稅合一是否能達成鼓勵投資與提高租稅中立性（降低企業舉債之誘因），本研究將採用台灣經濟新報資料庫的企業財報資料來進行實證研究。 有鑑於企業的新增投資與企業的負債比率兩者相互影響，若分別予以估計，則可能產生偏誤，因此本研究將影響企業投資行為方程式與影響企業負債比率方程式加以聯立，然而若只是利用傳統的最小平方法（OLS）並以聯立方程式模型（simultaneous equations model）實證，則對於企業之時間序列—橫斷面資料（以下簡稱panel data）的廠商特定效果或是不可觀察的效果仍無法消除，因此要同時考量panel data的處理與變數互為內生的問題，就必須利用聯立方程式模型來處理panel data，這也是本文主要的實證方法。 實證結果顯示兩稅合一實施後企業新增資本投資有顯著的增加，符合預期。此外就降低負債比率方面，結果顯示實施兩稅合一後企業之負債比率顯著降低。

This dissertation consists of three essays studying the effects of collective household decisions on early childhood development from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. The first chapter outlines the dissertation, by presenting the motivations, methods, conclusions, and policy implications for the entire dissertation. Chapter two examines early childhood development using a collective model with children's cognitive production. We jointly estimate the home input demand with children's cognitive production functions based on a simultaneous equations model. Biases are considered that are caused by the non-random selection of time inputs and possible correlations across inputs and outcomes functions. A direct measure of time inputs relying on children's time diaries from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID-CDS) has been constructed. We thereby relax the assumption that there is no difference between parental time spent on children and leisure. Our results show that parental time inputs, especially the active time interacting with children's daily activities, have substantial effects on both children's math and reading test scores. The time inputs vary across parents' age, race, and eduction levels. In chapter three, we conduct a standard Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to evaluate the role of home inputs in the black-white test score gaps based on the empirical model presented in chapter two. Aside from the finding that children's ability accounts for a large proportion of the differences, we find that home inputs can also explain a significant portion of the gap. When the maternal time is equalized at the average levels of white children, the racial differences in children's reading and math test scores can be closed by approximately 30%-50%. The last chapter extends a collective model with household production to the general equilibrium framework. We concentrate on the impacts of a global bargaining power shift within the household on children's cognitive achievement, especially on those who live with single mothers. The model shows that a global bargaining power change in favor of the female may not necessarily be beneficial to the children living with their single mothers. An increase of female's market equilibrium wage rate as a result of reduced labor supply by married women may induce single mothers to work longer hours, spend less time with children, and compensate them with more monetary investment compared with the case when the equilibrium wage rate stays constant. / Ph. D.

As empresas têm crescentemente incluído em suas estratégias de negócios a responsabilidade ambiental em resposta às demandas sociais de conservação dos recursos naturais e às exigências dos diversos stakeholders para garantir sua legitimidade e permanecer no mercado. Nesse contexto, este estudo teve como objetivo investigar a inter-relação entre a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. A pesquisa fundamentou-se na Teoria da Legitimidade e na Teoria da Divulgação, no que tange a divulgação de informações como uma resposta a pressões sociais e as necessidades dos stakeholders. Foram pesquisadas 87 empresas, que possuem ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). O problema foi investigado pela hipótese que a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico mantêm uma inter-relação positiva e linear entre si, observadas algumas características das empresas, o que culminou com adoção de um modelo de equações simultâneas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que não há inter-relação significante entre as variáveis, de acordo com as características da amostra e dos indicadores utilizados, pois se observou que a divulgação ambiental é influenciada pelo desempenho ambiental, que o desempenho econômico afeta o desempenho ambiental, mas que a divulgação ambiental não é afetada pelo desempenho econômico. Sugere-se que sejam realizadas outras pesquisas, que observem a inter-relação utilizando outras variáveis e também outras medidas para aquelas que foram utilizadas. / The companies have been including the environmental responsibility in their business strategies, as a response to social demands for natural resources conservancy and to demands of the several stakeholders, in order to maintain their legitimacy and to stay in the market. This study aims to investigate the inter-relation among the environmental disclosure, the environmental performance and the economic performance of Brazilian Public Companies. The research was based on Legitimacy Theory and on Disclosure Theory, in relation to information disclosure as an answer to social pressures and to stakeholders needs. 87 companies, which have shares in Bovespa (São Paulo s Stock Market), had been investigated. The subject was investigated based on hypothesis, which environmental disclosure, environmental performance and economic performance are inter-related in a positive and linear way when related to some of the companies characteristics. It ended in the adoption of a simultaneous equations model. Results of the model suggest that there is no significant interrelation between environmental disclosure and environmental and economic performance, related companies characteristics and according to indicators used, as it was observed that the environmental disclosure is influenced by environmental performance and that the economic performance affects the environmental performance, but that environmental disclosure is no influences economic performance. It is suggested that from this study new research is taken, in order to observe the inter-relation observing other variables and other measures for those used.

As empresas têm crescentemente incluído em suas estratégias de negócios a responsabilidade ambiental em resposta às demandas sociais de conservação dos recursos naturais e às exigências dos diversos stakeholders para garantir sua legitimidade e permanecer no mercado. Nesse contexto, este estudo teve como objetivo investigar a inter-relação entre a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. A pesquisa fundamentou-se na Teoria da Legitimidade e na Teoria da Divulgação, no que tange a divulgação de informações como uma resposta a pressões sociais e as necessidades dos stakeholders. Foram pesquisadas 87 empresas, que possuem ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). O problema foi investigado pela hipótese que a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico mantêm uma inter-relação positiva e linear entre si, observadas algumas características das empresas, o que culminou com adoção de um modelo de equações simultâneas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que não há inter-relação significante entre as variáveis, de acordo com as características da amostra e dos indicadores utilizados, pois se observou que a divulgação ambiental é influenciada pelo desempenho ambiental, que o desempenho econômico afeta o desempenho ambiental, mas que a divulgação ambiental não é afetada pelo desempenho econômico. Sugere-se que sejam realizadas outras pesquisas, que observem a inter-relação utilizando outras variáveis e também outras medidas para aquelas que foram utilizadas. / The companies have been including the environmental responsibility in their business strategies, as a response to social demands for natural resources conservancy and to demands of the several stakeholders, in order to maintain their legitimacy and to stay in the market. This study aims to investigate the inter-relation among the environmental disclosure, the environmental performance and the economic performance of Brazilian Public Companies. The research was based on Legitimacy Theory and on Disclosure Theory, in relation to information disclosure as an answer to social pressures and to stakeholders needs. 87 companies, which have shares in Bovespa (São Paulo s Stock Market), had been investigated. The subject was investigated based on hypothesis, which environmental disclosure, environmental performance and economic performance are inter-related in a positive and linear way when related to some of the companies characteristics. It ended in the adoption of a simultaneous equations model. Results of the model suggest that there is no significant interrelation between environmental disclosure and environmental and economic performance, related companies characteristics and according to indicators used, as it was observed that the environmental disclosure is influenced by environmental performance and that the economic performance affects the environmental performance, but that environmental disclosure is no influences economic performance. It is suggested that from this study new research is taken, in order to observe the inter-relation observing other variables and other measures for those used.

Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l’interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l’importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l’élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D’abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d’austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos résultats indiquent un effet significatif de ladette publique sur le coût des prêts. En outre, en période de crise, les mesures d’austéritéimpactent significativement le coût de crédit tandis qu’avant la crise, on note une petite illustrationde la demande agrégée de Keynes. Ensuite, nous montrons que les fonctions traditionnelles desbanques, notamment celle de création de liquidité fragilisent le secteur souverain (Chapitre-II). Enparticulier, nous montrons que le risque de liquidité des banques agit comme un canal depropagation de l'incertitude vers les sociétés non financières et inversement. Enfin, nousexaminons la dynamique du risque de crédit sur la dette souveraine, les entreprises et lesbanques (Chapitre-III). Nos résultats montrent qu’il existe un risque de contagion sur les secteurset les marchés financiers de l’union monétaire. Par ailleurs, les résultats des simulations dechocs de primes de risque des pays «noyaux» de la zone euro confirment l’existence d’effetsindirects sur le reste de la zone. De plus, nous constatons un phénomène de fuite desinvestisseurs vers les valeurs refuges. / The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank’s liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone.

Les politiques environnementales, notamment celles recourant aux instruments fiscaux, ont pris une place de plus en plus importante dans un grand nombre de pays durant les trois dernières décennies. Tous les pays de l’OCDE ont introduit des taxes liées à l'environnement et un nombre croissant d'entre eux procèdent à une réforme dite "verte" de leur fiscalité. L’utilisation de la taxe comme un instrument pour la politique environnementale a suscité un large débat parmi les chercheurs sur ses impacts sur la croissance économique, mais sans parvenir à un consensus sur la nature de ces effets. Certains trouvent un effet négatif, alors que d’autres montrent un impact positif. Deux points ont attiré notre attention sur ce sujet. Premièrement, les études empiriques qui vérifient la validité de ces résultats sont très rares. Deuxièmement, la majorité des modèles théoriques qui ont étudié l’effet de la fiscalité environnementale sur la croissance économique supposent que le gouvernement finance ses dépenses uniquement par les taxes et que le budget d’État est équilibré à chaque période, évitant ainsi tout fardeau associé au remboursement de la dette publique. Par conséquent, cette thèse a pour objectif d’abord d’explorer empiriquement la nature de la relation entre la fiscalité environnementale et la croissance économique, et si cette relation est sensible au niveau d'autres variables dans l'économie. Ensuite, nous examinons les canaux par lesquels cette taxe peut affecter la croissance économique, et si l'existence et le niveau de la dette publique peuvent modifier cet effet. / Environmental policies, especially those using fiscal instruments, have become more and more important in a large number of countries over the last three decades. All OECD countries have introduced environmentally related taxes, and a growing number of them are carrying out a so-called "green" reform of their taxation. The use of the tax as an instrument for environmental policy has sparked wide debate among researchers on its impacts on economic growth, but without reaching consensus on the nature of these effects. Some find a negative effect; while others show a positive impact. Two points raised our attention on this subject. First, the empirical studies that verify the validity of these results are very rare. Second, the majority of theoretical models that have studied the effect of environmental taxation on economic growth assume that the government finances its expenditures solely through taxes and that the state budget is balanced each period, thus avoiding any burden associated to repayment of public debt. Therefore, this thesis aims firstly to explore empirically the nature of the relationship between environmental taxation and economic growth, and whether this relationship is sensitive to the level of other variables in the economy. We examine then the channels through which this tax can affect economic growth, and whether the existence and level of public debt can modify this effect.