The thesis focuses on finding solutions to major exchange rate puzzles, which were discussed in detail by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000). The first puzzle is the purchasing power parity puzzle. The first version of the latter puzzle is concerned with whether a real exchange rate reverts in the mean. To resolve the puzzle in the context of Southern African Development Community countries, the thesis uses Bayesian unit root testing and nonlinear nonstationarity tests associated with the smooth transition autoregressive family of models. According to Bayesian unit root test results, the nonstationarity hypothesis received small posterior probability relative to other hypotheses. In this setting, the Bayesian results strongly supported the hypothesis that all the real exchange rates were trend-stationary autoregressive processes. However, it should be pointed out that Ahking (2004) has found these tests to be biased toward trend stationarity. Nonlinear nonstationarity tests presented evidence that four out of ten of SADC’s real exchange rates could be regarded as nonlinear globally ergodic processes, while others could be considered random walks. The thesis relies on local-to-unity asymptotic theory and Rossi (2005a) to deal with the half-life version of the PPP puzzle. The half-life version is that a high degree of exchange rate volatility is generally associated with an implausibly slow speed of mean reversion. Depending on the robustness of the methods used, empirical evidence points to several half-lives of less than 36 months, but the confidence intervals of half-life deviations from PPP are found in all cases, as in Rossi’s work, to be too wide to be informative enough to resolve the puzzle. In addition, the thesis undertakes Hinich and Chong (2007) class tests of fractional integration to ensure that a long memory process is not mistaken for a nonstationary process in finding solutions to the PPP puzzle. The results show that at 1 per cent and 5 per cent significance levels, the real exchange rates associated with South Africa, Mauritius and Swaziland are not fractionally integrated. Tanzania’s real exchange rate was found to be stationary-fractionally integrated but with the antipersistence property. Other currencies were found to be nonstationary-fractionally integrated. The third puzzle is the exchange rate determination puzzle, which is as follows: In the short run there seems to be no reliable determinants of exchange rates. The thesis relies on the market microstructure approach to find the determinants of South Africa’s exchange rate. In this context, the thesis utilises autoregressive distributed lag model of cointegration to identify the fundamental and non-fundamental determinants of the rand/dollar exchange rate. The main contribution of the thesis to the economic literature is the usage of newly developed methods in an attempt to resolve the above-mentioned puzzles. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / unrestricted

Fifteen countries which are members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have embarked on a regional integration initiative. In 1996, a trade protocol that aimed to increase trade among members by removing trade barriers was signed. In the year 2000, this protocol was implemented, leading to a Free Trade Area (FTA) in 2008. More than 85 % of SADC trade was free of customs duties from 2008 onwards. However, while custom tariffs were reduced, the share of SADC trade did not show any improvement over the tenyear period after implementing the trade protocol. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to examine the factors which contributed to lack of improvement in SADC trade, particularly the role of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). One of the main challenges in analysing NTMs in SADC is the unavailability of relevant information. An SADC NTM database was built as a repository of official NTMs. In order to quantify NTMs, a database was classified, similarly to the international database. Agricultural products at HS 4-digit level for ten SADC countries were included in this repository, and groupedinto six main categories; namely animal products, cereals, horticultural products, oilseeds, industrial and processed products. The trade data challenges within SADC countries inadvertently prescribed the econometric methods to apply for the set objectives of the study. The two main challenges of SADC trade data are missing data for some years and high percentage of zero trade flows. A latent threshold gravity model was employed with hierarchical specification to control for country effects. The hierarchical model captures individual country effects, such as the impact of NTMs on trade volumes, and thus intra-SADC trade. Such impact was then assessed when an additional NTM is introduced or increases trade volumes. The two effect models were examining the attributes of changes in regional trade, as well as those attributes of change in NTMs. The effects NTMs were incorporated into the model by weighting the number of NTMs by share of trade in the region, as well as ranks of country NTMs within product groups. Types of NTMs which were estimated are Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and an aggregation of all other NTMs which do not belong to the two groups. Results show that there is evidence NTMs were increasing at the same period when tariffs were being reduced. Using the inventory methods of evaluating presence and prevalence of NTMs, it was also evident that NTMs are used across most agricultural products. The percentage of products affected by NTMs in 2010 was much higher than in 2000. The econometric model results show that all gravity model variables, GDP, border and language were consistent with the theoretical expectations.Distance does nothave significant influence on SADC trade. The reason for this has to do with the trading pattern of SADC countries, which is very high between contiguous members, compared to non-contiguous members. The estimation of zero observed trade, using a threshold model, provided additional understanding of the role and reasons for such trade. The estimated effects of the observed zero trade showed that if this threshold is high, implying that trade costs (NTMs) are restricting trade, then zero trade was observed. When high percentage of zero trade is observed, then intra-SADC trade remains small or declines. However, if the threshold is low, intra-SADC trade increases, as was observed in the case of industrial products. The overall results confirm that NTMs do have an impact on intra-SADC trade. Industrial and cereal products are more responsive to NTMs than the other five product groups. A unit change in NTMs by regional trade members has more effects on intra- regional trade than a unit change in trade value. That is the case because the SADC is already exchanging a large share of its total trade with non-SADC members. Therefore, attention should be given to addressing the way NTMs are introduced. One of the important findings from the study is that the intra-SADC trade is affected more by the effect of an additional NTM, than an additional unit of trade in value. The effect of addressing NTMs is one and half more than those of additional trade value. So, in order to improve intra-SADC trade performance, focus must on addressing the NTMs and growing trade. In addressing NTMs, it does not necessarily require removing or even reducing them. It is about making it easy to comply with them. SADC trade can be improved substantially by aiming to harmonise NTMs and overall policies. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / PhD / unrestricted

The aim of the thesis is to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth using the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a case study. The motivation emanates not only because of the lack of studies analysing this relationship in the SADC region, but also due to the fact that this relationship may differ from the one that exists in developed countries due to the level of economic development and prudent macroeconomic policies being practised in the latter (Sarel, 1996). The relationship may differ because the vast majority of developed countries have established independent central banks with a clear mandate to keep inflation levels within a specific range (adopted an inflation targeting framework). However, in most developing countries, central banks do not have a clear inflation targeting monetary policy framework, for instance, in the SADC region, only South Africa has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. High inflation episodes are known to contribute to macroeconomic instability, therefore policy makers find it important to understand the kind of the relationship that exists between inflation and economic growth in order to develop and implement sound macroeconomic policies. Therefore, inflation is viewed to be one of the basic indicators of macroeconomic stability; hence it is an indicator of the ability of the government to manage the economy. High levels of inflation may be indicative of a lack of sound governance by the monetary authority of a country. In addition, it is a sign of government that has lost control of its finances (Fischer,1993). The thesis addresses issues of nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus by endogenously estimating the threshold level of inflation below which inflation may have no, or positive, impact on economic growth, or above which inflation may be detrimental to economic growth. It also assesses the effects of a shock to inflation in South Africa, being the largest economy in the region, on inflation and economic growth of the rest of the region. First, different panel data methodologies; Fixed Effects (FE), Difference Generalised Method of Moments (DIF-GMM), System Generalised Method of Moments (SYSGMM), and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimators are used in order to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the region. Second, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) methodology is utilised to examine the nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus. In particular, the threshold level of inflation is endogenously estimated and the smoothness of the transition from a low to a high inflation regime in the region is also estimated1. Thirdly, the effects of South African inflation on the inflation and economic growth in the rest of the region are assessed using impulse-response functions derived from estimating a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. Overall, the study deals with problems which are normally encountered when using cross-country data such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The main findings of the study are that inflation and economic growth in the region are negatively related, as is also the case in other regions of the world as depicted by the empirical literature (Fischer, 1993 and De Gregorio, 1993). Therefore, in terms of the inflation-growth link, the SADC region is not different from all the other regions around the globe. Secondly, the threshold level of inflation in the region is estimated at 18.9 per cent, which is in line with the findings of authors like Drukker et al. (2005), Mignon and Villavicencio (2011), and Ibarra and Trupkin (2011), who found a threshold level of 19.2 per cent, 19.6 per cent, and 19.1 per cent for developing countries. However, this threshold level marginally exceeds that of Khan and Senhadji (2001), Schiavo and Vaona (2007), Moshiri and Sepehri (2009) and Espinoza et al. (2010), which studies report threshold values between 10 and 12 per cent for developing countries. The empirical results also reveal that shocks to South African inflation have significant economic impact on inflation, openness, investment and economic growth in the rest of the SADC region. In particular, more interestingly, South African inflation is found to have a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the region for up to about 12 years after the shock, after which, it becomes insignificant. The contribution of the thesis to the literature is that, firstly, this looks into the inflation-growth relationship in the context of Africa, in particular the SADC region; as such an investigation or research has not been conducted before. Secondly, the research takes advantage of panel data methodologies so as to provide more robust estimates and confront the potential bias emanating from problems such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-country dependence that may have affected previous empirical work on inflation-growth nexus. This is believed to provide more informative estimates on the inflation-growth link, and therefore deepens our knowledge of the region. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Economics / unrestricted

A Research Report submitted to the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Medicine (Pharmaceutical Affairs) Johannesburg, 2016 / Background The World Health Organization (WHO) defines medicines regulation as the “promotion and protection of public health by ensuring the safety, efficacy and quality of drugs, and the appropriateness and accuracy of product information” (1). Medicines regulation is a key function in the realisation of the right to essential medicines. However, a satisfactory level of harmonization of regulatory activities has not been achieved in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region as yet. Objectives The study evaluated the current status of medicines regulatory harmonization within the SADC region, as well as explored perceived barriers to regulatory harmonization and potential strategies to address these. Methods A cross-sectional exploratory study design with qualitative techniques, as well as an inductive approach was used. In-depth, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with interviewees from the SADC Secretariat, the African Medicines Harmonization (AMRH) Initiative and the Southern Africa Regional Programme on Access to Medicines and Diagnostics (SARPAM) was used, involving secondary formal qualitative approaches to identify the emergent themes, was utilised initially. A questionnaire was formulated and adapted using secondary data collected from the face-to-face interviews, then piloted. Questionnaires were sent to senior members of all 15 regulatory authorities belonging to SADC, including registrars and deputy registrars. Theoretical and analytical codes were identified from repeated ideas, concepts or elements. Codes were grouped into concepts, and then into categories. Trend analysis was conducted, involving an in-depth analysis of patterns. Results Barriers to regulatory harmonization in the SADC region perceived by participants included i) deficiencies in governance and leadership within the SADC Secretariat, ii) human resource and technical capacity constraints, iii) limited financial resources, iv) lack of political will within SADC governments, v) lack of intra-SADC relationships, vi) risk-benefit analysis differences in assessment of applications and bias according to local population needs, as well as vii) different guidance documents and legal frameworks among member countries. Strategies identified to address these included i) using other harmonization initiatives as models, ii) application format harmonization and African Union (AU) Model Law adoption, iii) redirecting focus of harmonization to information sharing and technical matter rather than complex legislative frameworks, iv) regulator initiatives of harmonization instead of SADC secretariat reliance, v) World Bank Agreement adoption, vi) human resource capacity development and vii) convergence of guidelines instead of complete harmonization of all regulatory requirements. Conclusions The findings in this study suggest that it may be necessary to redirect the focus of harmonization to more readily achievable activities and aim for convergence of guidelines. Regulatory harmonization is possible if barriers to it are addressed. / MT2016

Globalisation and trade integration have positioned Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a development imperative for many developing countries, including Southern African Development Community (SADC) economies. Despite concerted efforts both at individual country level and at regional level, FDI flows to the SADC region have declined compared to other regions in the world. The main reasons posited for SADC's inability to attract and retain FDI include negative risk perceptions; a weak ease of doing business environment, and endemic corruption. Hence, the study seeks to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and corruption and ease of doing business in SADC. The research applies Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) analysis to all 16 SADC countries over a period of 2010 to 2019. The results show that although both corruption and ease of doing business are significantly and positively relate to FDI inflows in SADC, ease of doing business affects FDI to a greater extent compared to corruption. In addition, the inclusion of the interaction between corruption and ease of doing business shows that FDI inflows are more closely attracted by ease of doing business than by corruption.

This thesis examines regional integration in Southern Africa and the evolution of SADC. Regional developments are evaluated with the yardsticks of integration theory, against the background of international regionalisation, and in terms of the region's practical record, its rhetoric and future agenda. The extent to which economic integration is progressing, is determined, after which the thesis focuses on political integration within SADC - both de Jure and de facto. Finally, developments within the region are evaluated in light of normative prerequisites for increased political integration. The thesis finds that the integration process in SADC does not fit into traditional integration theory, and concludes that successful economic integration in the region is not necessarily a prerequisite to political integration, but would facilitate it. The research finally concludes that there is evidence of embryonic political integration within SADC, which will wane or grow depending primarily on the political will of its constituents / Political Science / M.A. (Politics)

An appropriate regional cooperation environment makes a vital contribution to the social and economic development of every country in the region. This research thesis focuses specifically on the growing lack of appropriate regional cooperation models in developing countries, and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is used as a case study. The research highlights some key issues on the development of the appropriate regional cooperation models. The research information is obtained on the research areas through questionnaire surveys to respondents from South Africa, Tanzania, and Mauritius on the current regional cooperation model and the perceived ideal one. The conclusions drawn are that the regional cooperation models envisaged to be in use in the SADC differ significantly from the theory, which results in inappropriate focus on the requirements of the majority of the states. This is primarily due to the use of inappropriate regional cooperation models. The indications are that traditional market-type integration models, which are used as a “default model” without major adjustments, are inappropriate within the developing countries context, owing to the existence of a fundamental incongruence between the assumptions and requirements of such models and the needs and realities prevailing in Southern Africa. Southern Africa does not satisfy the foremost prerequisites of successful market integration. Despite the considerable advantages the models might have gained in other developed regions, they often fail to meet the requirements of the developing countries. In measuring the satisfaction regarding the current regional cooperation adhering to the requirements of the majority of states, it becomes obvious that the SADC population is generally not satisfied with the results regarding the current regional cooperation. In order to meet the requirements of the majority of states, SADC regional cooperation needs to focus on the appropriate regional cooperation. This requires an understanding and management of three classes of factors, which are environmental factors, capacity factors, and regional organisational factors. The three classes of factors together affect the participation rate of the states. / Business Leadership / DBL (Business Leadership)

An appropriate regional cooperation environment makes a vital contribution to the social and economic development of every country in the region. This research thesis focuses specifically on the growing lack of appropriate regional cooperation models in developing countries, and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is used as a case study. The research highlights some key issues on the development of the appropriate regional cooperation models. The research information is obtained on the research areas through questionnaire surveys to respondents from South Africa, Tanzania, and Mauritius on the current regional cooperation model and the perceived ideal one. The conclusions drawn are that the regional cooperation models envisaged to be in use in the SADC differ significantly from the theory, which results in inappropriate focus on the requirements of the majority of the states. This is primarily due to the use of inappropriate regional cooperation models. The indications are that traditional market-type integration models, which are used as a “default model” without major adjustments, are inappropriate within the developing countries context, owing to the existence of a fundamental incongruence between the assumptions and requirements of such models and the needs and realities prevailing in Southern Africa. Southern Africa does not satisfy the foremost prerequisites of successful market integration. Despite the considerable advantages the models might have gained in other developed regions, they often fail to meet the requirements of the developing countries. In measuring the satisfaction regarding the current regional cooperation adhering to the requirements of the majority of states, it becomes obvious that the SADC population is generally not satisfied with the results regarding the current regional cooperation. In order to meet the requirements of the majority of states, SADC regional cooperation needs to focus on the appropriate regional cooperation. This requires an understanding and management of three classes of factors, which are environmental factors, capacity factors, and regional organisational factors. The three classes of factors together affect the participation rate of the states. / Business Leadership / DBL (Business Leadership)

This thesis examines regional integration in Southern Africa and the evolution of SADC. Regional developments are evaluated with the yardsticks of integration theory, against the background of international regionalisation, and in terms of the region's practical record, its rhetoric and future agenda. The extent to which economic integration is progressing, is determined, after which the thesis focuses on political integration within SADC - both de Jure and de facto. Finally, developments within the region are evaluated in light of normative prerequisites for increased political integration. The thesis finds that the integration process in SADC does not fit into traditional integration theory, and concludes that successful economic integration in the region is not necessarily a prerequisite to political integration, but would facilitate it. The research finally concludes that there is evidence of embryonic political integration within SADC, which will wane or grow depending primarily on the political will of its constituents / Political Science / M.A. (Politics)

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The implementation or adaption of a common currency by a group of countries has managerial as well as risk management implications for these emerging market multinational corporations (EMNC’S). This study sets out to examine these business management implications and the computation of a fictitious uniform currency for the SADC region, “SADC dollar” to derive its optimality should the SADC dollar replace the ZAR. This optimality was determined by comparing the basis risk of currency futures hedge positions using both the USD/ZAR on a ZAR currency index and USD/SADC dollar on a SADC currency index as the respective underlings. Findings indicated that the basis risk and currency risk declined over a time-series analysis which implied better business management decisions, increased profit margins, larger firm value and more effective hedged positions for the companies in South Africa that may adopt this new currency. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die implementering of aanvaarding van ‘n gemene wisselkoers deur ‘n groep SADC-lande het besigheidsbestuurs- asook risikobestuursimplikasies vir SADC multinasionale maatskappye. Hierdie studie beoog om die implikasies vir bestuur te ondersoek en te bepaal hoe die skep van ‘n fiktiewe eenvormige wisselkoers vir die SADC-streek gebruik kan word, dit is, sou die “SADC dollar” die ZAR vervang. Hierdie optimaliteit is bereken deur die basisrisiko van verskeie valutatermynkontrakte vergelyk. Die instrument onderliggend aan die verskillende valutatermynkontrakte was die VSA dollar/rand wisselkoers wat op ‘n Suid-Afrikaanse rand (ZAR) valutaindeks gemodelleer is en die VSA dollar/SADC dollar wat op ‘n SADC valutaindeks gemodelleer was. Die resultate van die navorsing op die gekose tydreeks dui daarop dat die basisrisiko sowel as die valutarisiko moontlik sal afneem. Die implikasie hiervan is moonlik beter besigheidsbestuurs-besluite, toename in winsmarges, toenames in maatskapywaardes en meer effektiewe skans posisies vir maatskappye in Suid–Afrika wat hierdie eenvormige wisselkoers sou implementeer.