Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-05-31T15:25:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 alessandracristinagomesmagno.pdf: 3807060 bytes, checksum: a3775aee860af7ea06cde6b9d587ab80 (MD5) / Rejected by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br), reason: on 2017-06-01T11:41:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-06-01T11:44:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 alessandracristinagomesmagno.pdf: 3807060 bytes, checksum: a3775aee860af7ea06cde6b9d587ab80 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-06-01T11:47:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 alessandracristinagomesmagno.pdf: 3807060 bytes, checksum: a3775aee860af7ea06cde6b9d587ab80 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-01T11:47:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 alessandracristinagomesmagno.pdf: 3807060 bytes, checksum: a3775aee860af7ea06cde6b9d587ab80 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-22 / O objetivo principal deste trabalho é adicionar e analisar uma equação que repre senta o volume no modelo dinâmico do ciclo celular de mamíferos proposto por Gérard e Goldbeter (2011). A divisão celular ocorre quando o complexo ciclinaB/Cdk1(quínase dependente de ciclina) é totalmente degradado atingindo um valor mínimo. Neste ponto, a célula é divida em duas novas células filhas e cada uma irá conter a metade do conteúdo citoplasmático da célula mãe. As equações do modelo de base são válidas apenas se o volume celular, onde as reações ocorrem, é constante. Quando o volume celular não é constante, isto é, a taxa de variação do volume em relação ao tempo é explicitamente levada em consideração no modelo matemático, então as equações do modelo original não são mais válidas. Portanto, todas as equações foram modificadas a partir do princípio de conservação das massas para considerar um volume que varia ao longo do tempo. Por meio desta abordagem, o volume celular afeta todas as variáveis do modelo. Dois méto dos diferentes de simulação foram efetuados: determinista e estocástico. Na simulação estocástica, o volume afeta todos os parâmetros do modelo que possuem de alguma forma unidade molar, enquanto que no determinista, ele é incorporado nas equações diferen ciais. Na simulação determinista, as espécies bioquímicas podem estar em unidades de concentração, enquanto na simulação estocástica tais espécies devem ser convertidas para número de moléculas que são diretamente proporcional ao volume celular. Em um esforço para entender a influência da nova equação sobre o modelo uma análise de estabilidade foi feita. Isso esclarece como o novo parâmetro µ, fator de crescimento do volume celular, impacta na estabilidade do ciclo limite do modelo. Para encontrar a solução aproximada do modelo determinista, o método Runge Kutta de quarta ordem foi implementado. Já para o modelo estocástico, o método direto de Gillespie foi usado. Para concluir, um modelo mais preciso, em comparação ao modelo de base, foi desenvolvido ao levar em consideração a influência da taxa de variação do volume celular sobre o ciclo celular. / The main goal of this work is to add and analyse an equation that represents the volume in a dynamical model of the mammalian cell cycle proposed by Gérard and Gold beter (2011). The cell division occurs when the cyclinB/Cdk1 (cyclin-dependent kinase) complex is totally degraded and it reaches a minimum value. At this point, the cell is divided into two newborn daughter cells and each one will contain the half of the cyto plasmic content of the mother cell. The equations of our base model are valid only if the cell volume, where the reactions occur, is constant. Whether the cell volume is not constant, that is, the rate of change of its volume with respect to time is explicitly taken into account in the mathematical model, then the equations of the original model are no longer valid. Therefore, every equations were modified from the mass conservation prin ciple for considering a volume that changes with time. Through this approach, the cell volume affects all model variables. Two different dynamic simulation methods were ac complished: deterministic and stochastic. In the stochastic simulation, the volume affects every model’s parameters which have molar unit, whereas in the deterministic one, it is incorporated into the differential equations. In deterministic simulation, the biochemical species may be in concentration units, while in stochastic simulation such species must be converted to number of molecules which are directly proportional to the cell volume. In an effort to understand the influence of the new equation over the model an stability analysis was performed. This elucidates how the new parameter µ, cell volume growth factor, impacts the stability of the model’s limit cycle. In order to find the approximated solution of the deterministic model, the fourth order Runge Kutta method was implemen ted. As for the stochastic model, the Gillespie’s Direct Method was used. In conclusion, a more precise model, in comparison to the base model, was created for the cell cycle as it now takes into consideration the rate of change of the cell volume.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-06-06T13:42:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 camillodelellisfalcaodasilva.pdf: 1420414 bytes, checksum: f38c14f74131ea594b1e105fbfdb1619 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-06-06T14:07:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 camillodelellisfalcaodasilva.pdf: 1420414 bytes, checksum: f38c14f74131ea594b1e105fbfdb1619 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-06T14:07:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 camillodelellisfalcaodasilva.pdf: 1420414 bytes, checksum: f38c14f74131ea594b1e105fbfdb1619 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-22 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Atualmente, a eficiência dos algoritmos de simulação estocástica para a simulação de redes de regulação gênica (RRG) tem motivado diversos trabalhos científicos. O interesse por tais algoritmos deve-se ao fato de as novas tecnologias em biologia celular — às vezes chamadas de tecnologias de alto rendimento (high throughput technology cell biology) — te-rem mostrado que a expressão gênica é um processo estocástico. Em RRG com atrasos, os algoritmos para simulação estocástica existentes possuem problemas — como crescimento linear da complexidade assintótica, descarte excessivo de números aleatórios durante a si-mulação e grande complexidade de codificação em linguagens de programação — que podem resultar em um baixo desempenho em relação ao tempo de processamento de simulação de uma RRG. Este trabalho apresenta um algoritmo para simulação estocástica que foi chamado de método da próxima reação simplificado (SNRM). Esse algoritmo mostrou-se mais eficiente que as outras abordagens existentes para simulações estocásticas realizadas com as RRGs com atrasos. Além do SNRM, um novo grafo de dependências para reações com atrasos também é apresentado. A utilização desse novo grafo, que foi nomeado de delayed dependency graph (DDG), aumentou consideravelmente a eficiência de todas as versões dos algoritmos de simulação estocástica com atrasos apresentados nesse trabalho. Finalmente, uma estrutura de dados que recebeu o nome de lista ordenada por hashing é utilizada para tratar a lista de produtos em espera em simulações de RRGs com atrasos. Essa estrutura de dados também se mostrou mais eficiente que uma heap em todas as simulações testadas. Com todas as melhorias mencionadas, este trabalho apresenta um conjunto de estratégias que contribui de forma efetiva para o desempenho dos algoritmos de simulação estocástica com atrasos de redes de regulação gênica. / Recently, the time efficiency of stochastic simulation algorithms for gene regulatory networks (GRN) has motivated several scientific works. Interest in such algorithms is because the new technologies in cell biology — called high-throughput technologies cell biology — have shown that gene expression is a stochastic process. In GRN with delays, the existing algorithms for stochastic simulation have some drawbacks — such as linear growth of complexity, excessive discard of random numbers, and the coding in a programming language can be hard — that result in poor performance during the simulation of very large GRN. This work presents an algorithm for stochastic simulation of GRN. We called it simplified next reaction method (SNRM). This algorithm was more efficient than other existing algorithms for stochastically simulation of GRN with delays. Besides SNRM, a new dependency graph for delayed reactions is also presented. The use of this new graph, which we named it delayed dependency graph (DDG), greatly increased the efficiency of all versions of the algorithms for stochastic simulation with delays presented in this work. Finally, a data structure that we named hashing sorted list is used to handle the waiting list of products in simulations of GRN with delays. This data structure was also more efficient than a heap in all tested simulations. With all the improvements mentioned, this work presents a set of strategies that contribute effectively to increasing performance of stochastic simulation algorithms with delays for gene regulatory networks.

Submitted by Joel de Lima Pereira Castro Junior (joelpcastro@uol.com.br) on 2016-06-13T17:59:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandoPereira.pdf: 3266161 bytes, checksum: 81d133f8678f72c60e9bcd71160acd54 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca de Administração e Ciências Contábeis (bac@ndc.uff.br) on 2016-06-20T17:13:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandoPereira.pdf: 3266161 bytes, checksum: 81d133f8678f72c60e9bcd71160acd54 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-20T17:13:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandoPereira.pdf: 3266161 bytes, checksum: 81d133f8678f72c60e9bcd71160acd54 (MD5) / Coordenação de aperfeiçoamento de pessoal de ensino superior - CAPES / Prefeitura Municipal de Maricá. Secretaria de Fazenda. Maricá, RJ / Esta dissertação busca por meio do estudo do caso da gestão de resíduos sólidos no Porto do Rio de Janeiro aplicar uma ferramenta de simulação computacional estocástica a fim de dar apoio ao processo decisório do gestor responsável. Fato este que se deve ao panorama onde este gestor tem de integrar sua operação ao fato legal da aprovação da Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos e ao crescimento e importância do setor portuário para o país. Alertando para o fato da escassa literatura acadêmica sobre simulação aplicada a gestão de resíduos sólidos conforme pesquisa junto a bases eletrônicas. Inicialmente o problema de pesquisa é apresentado, versada uma revisão literária com intuito de atender os objetivos definidos tratando esta desde a gestão ambiental até a simulação computacional. Em seguida desenvolve-se o estudo de caso onde é segue-se a metodologia de simulação abordada por Banks, Chwif e Medina autores reconhecidos na área, e ainda realiza-se uma análise dos resultados da simulação de acordo com cada cenário proposto e medidas de desempenho estabelecidas. Por fim, os resultados confirmam como a simulação estocástica pode apoiar o gestor apontando o dimensionamento necessário para a operação da gestão de resíduos no caso estudado além de evidenciar os benefícios de seu uso. / This dissertation search through the case study of solid waste management at the Port of Rio de Janeiro apply a stochastic computer simulation tool to support the decision making process the manager responsible. This fact is due to the panorama where this manager has to integrate its operation to the legal fact of the approval of the National Solid Waste Policy and the growth and importance of the port sector in the country. Alerting to the fact of scarce academic literature on simulation applied to solid waste management as survey of electronic databases. Initially the research problem is presented, one versed literature review aiming to meet the objectives set this comes from environmental management to computer simulation. Then-develop the case study which is followed by the simulation methodology discussed by Banks, Chwif and Medina recognized authors in the area, and also conducts an analysis of the simulation results under each scenario and proposed measures established performance. Finally, the results confirm how stochastic simulation can support the manager pointing scaling required for the operation of waste management in the case study also highlights the benefits of its use.

La reproductibilité des expériences numériques sur les systèmes de calcul à haute performance est parfois négligée. De plus, les méthodes numériques employées pour une parallélisation rigoureuse des simulations stochastiques sont souvent méconnues. En effet, les résultats obtenus pour une simulation stochastique utilisant des systèmes de calcul à hautes performances peuvent être différents d’une exécution à l’autre, et ce pour les mêmes paramètres et les même contextes d’exécution du fait de l’impact des nouvelles architectures, des accélérateurs, des compilateurs, des systèmes d’exploitation ou du changement de l’ordre d’exécution en parallèle des opérations en arithmétique flottantes au sein des micro-processeurs. En cas de non répétabilité des expériences numériques, comment mettre au point les applications ? Quel crédit peut-on apporter au logiciel parallèle ainsi développé ? Dans cette thèse, nous faisons une synthèse des causes de non-reproductibilité pour une simulation stochastique parallèle utilisant des systèmes de calcul à haute performance. Contrairement aux travaux habituels du parallélisme, nous ne nous consacrons pas à l’amélioration des performances, mais à l’obtention de résultats numériquement répétables d’une expérience à l’autre. Nous présentons la reproductibilité et ses apports dans la science numérique expérimentale. Nous proposons dans cette thèse quelques contributions, notamment : pour vérifier la reproductibilité et la portabilité des générateurs modernes de nombres pseudo-aléatoires ; pour détecter la corrélation entre flux parallèles issus de générateurs de nombres pseudo-aléatoires ; pour répéter et reproduire les résultats numériques de simulations stochastiques parallèles indépendantes. / The reproducibility of numerical experiments on high performance computing systems is sometimes overlooked. Moreover, the numerical methods used for rigorous parallelization of stochastic simulations are often unknown. Indeed, the results obtained for a stochastic simulation using high performance computing systems can be different from run to run with the same parameters and the same execution contexts due to the impact of new architectures, accelerators, compilers, operating systems or a changing of the order of execution of the floating arithmetic operations within the micro-processors for parallelizing optimizations. In the case of non-repeatability of numerical experiments, how can we seriously develop a scientific application? What credit can be given to the parallel software thus developed? In this thesis, we synthesize the main causes of non-reproducibility for a parallel stochastic simulation using high performance computing systems. Unlike the usual parallelism works, we do not focus on improving performance, but on obtaining numerically repeatable results from one experiment to another. We present the reproducibility and its contributions to the science of experimental and numerical computing. Furthermore, we propose some contributions, in particular: to verify the reproducibility and portability of top modern pseudo-random number generators, to detect the correlation between parallel streams issued from such generators, to repeat and reproduce the numerical results of independent parallel stochastic simulations.

Les chenaux sont des structures sédimentaires clefs dans le transport et le dépôt de sédiments depuis les continents jusqu'aux planchers océaniques. Leurs dépôts perméables permettent la circulation et le stockage de fluides. Comme illustré avec les systèmes turbiditiques, le remplissage de ces chenaux est très hétérogène. Son impact sur la connectivité des dépôts perméables est amplifié par les variations d'organisation spatiale des chenaux. Mais du fait de l'aspect lacunaire des données, l'architecture de ces structures souterraines n'est que partiellement connue. Dans ce cas, les simulations stochastiques permettent d'estimer les ressources et les incertitudes associées. De nombreuses méthodes ont été développées pour reproduire ces environnements. Elles soulèvent deux questions capitales : comment analyser et comparer la connectivité de simulations stochastiques ? Comment améliorer la représentation de la connectivité dans les simulations stochastiques de chenaux et réduire les incertitudes ? La première question nous a conduits à développer une méthode pour comparer objectivement des réalisations en se concentrant sur la connectivité. L'approche proposée s'appuie sur les composantes connexes des simulations, sur lesquelles sont calculés plusieurs indicateurs. Une représentation par positionnement multidimensionnel (MDS) facilite la comparaison des réalisations. Les observations faites grâce au MDS sont ensuite validées par une carte de chaleur et les indicateurs. L'application à un cas synthétique de complexes chenaux/levées montre les différences de connectivité entre des méthodes et des valeurs de paramètres différentes. En particulier, certaines méthodes sont loin de reproduire des objets avec une forme de chenaux. La seconde question amène deux principaux problèmes. Premièrement, il apparaît difficile de conditionner des objets très allongés, comme des chenaux, à des données de puits ou dérivées de données sismiques. Nous nous appuyons sur une grammaire formelle, le système de Lindenmayer, pour simuler stochastiquement des objets chenaux conditionnés. Des règles de croissance prédéfinies contrôlent la morphologie du chenal, de rectiligne à sinueuse. Cette morphologie conditionne les données au fur et à mesure de son développement grâce à des contraintes attractives ou répulsives. Ces contraintes assurent le conditionnement tout en préservant au mieux la morphologie. Deuxièmement, l'organisation spatiale des chenaux apparaît peu contrôlable. Nous proposons de traiter ce problème en intégrant les processus qui déterminent l'organisation des chenaux. Un premier chenal est simulé avec un système de Lindenmayer. Puis ce chenal migre à l'aide d'une simulation gaussienne séquentielle ou d'une simulation multipoints. Cette approche reproduit les relations complexes entre des chenaux successifs sans s'appuyer sur des modèles physiques partiellement validés et au paramétrage souvent contraignant. L'application de ces travaux à des cas synthétiques démontre le potentiel de ces approches. Elles ouvrent des perspectives intéressantes pour mieux prendre en compte la connectivité dans les simulations stochastiques de chenaux / Channels are the main sedimentary structures for sediment transportation and deposition from the continents to the ocean floor. The significant permeability of their deposits enables fluid circulation and storage. As illustrated with turbiditic systems, those channel fill is highly heterogeneous. Combined with the spatial organization of the channels, this impacts significantly the connectivity between the permeable deposits. The scarcity of the field data involves an incomplete knowledge of these subsurface reservoir architectures. In such environments, stochastic simulations are used to estimate the resources and give an insight on the associated uncertainties. Several methods have been developed to reproduce these complex environments. They raise two main concerns: how to analyze and compare the connectivity of a set of stochastic simulations? How to improve the representation of the connectivity within stochastic simulations of channels and reduce the uncertainties? The first concern leads to the development of a method to objectively compare realiza-tions in terms of connectivity. The proposed approach relies on the connected compo-nents of the simulations, on which several indicators are computed. A muldimensional scaling (MDS) representation facilitates the realization comparison. The observations on the MDS are then validated by the analysis of the heatmap and the indicators. The appli-cation to a synthetic case study highlights the difference of connectivity between several methods and parameter values to model channel/levee complexes. In particular, some methods are far from representing channel-shaped bodies. Two main issues derive from the second concern. The first issue is the difficulty to simulate a highly elongated object, here a channel, conditioned to well or seismic-derived data. We rely on a formal grammar, the Lindenmayer system, to stochastically simulate conditional channel objects. Predefined growth rules control the channel morphology to simulate straight to sinuous channels. That morphology conditions the data during its development thanks to attractive and repulsive constraints. Such constraints ensure the conditioning while preserving at best the channel morphology. The second issue arises from the limited control on the channel organization. This aspect is addressed by taking into account the evolution processes underlying channel organization. An initial channel is simulated with a Lindenmayer system. Then that channel migrates using sequential Gaussian simulation or multiple-point simulation. This process reproduces the complex relationships between successive channels without relying on partially validated physical models with an often constraining parameterization. The applications of those various works to synthetic cases highlight the potentiality of the approaches. They open up interesting prospects to better take into account the connectivity when stochastically simulating channels

Les méthodes stochastiques de modélisation discrète de réseaux de fractures reposent principalement sur la reproduction de la géométrie du réseau de fractures naturelles décrit par des lois de distributions statistiques. Classiquement, la géométrie de chaque objet est simulée en déterminant la position, l'orientation et la géométrie d'objets planaires représentant une fracture. Cependant, l'organisation générale du réseau est émergente d'un processus stochastique et stationnaire. Cette thèse explore une approche stochastique pseudo-génétique définissant des règles d'implantation et de propagation d'objets non planaires qui permet de contraindre l'émergence d'une organisation fractale particulière. La simulation mime le processus de fracturation naturelle en contraignant le positionnement et la géométrie de chaque fracture par la zone d'accumulation des contraintes et la zone d'ombre définie autour de chaque fracture déjà simulée. Nous étudierons l'impact de la méthode proposée sur la dimension fractale du réseau de fractures discret. De même, nous mènerons une étude quantifiant l'impact de notre méthode de simulation sur la connectivité des modèles et leur seuil de percolation. La validation des approches stochastiques se base sur le réalisme de la géométrie et du comportement des modèles produits. L'approche précédemment décrite contraint les géométries locale et globale des réseaux de fractures discrets par des lois statistiques et des concepts issus de la mécanique de la fracturation. L'imagerie des discontinuités mécaniques peut aussi passer par l'interprétation de données indirectes évaluant le comportement physique et/ou dynamique du volume de roche fracturé. Nous proposons une approche efficace pour intégrer à la simulation stochastique des considérations relatives à des tests de traceurs et à la microsismicité. Nous intégrerons ces considérations à la simulation directe des objets sans passer par une optimisation qui pourrait être couteuse en temps de calcul et corrompre l'organisation fractale du réseau de fracture discret / The stochastic simulation of discrete fracture network is based on the sampling of distribution law that describes the geometry of natural fracture networks. It generally simulates each fracture by selecting the position, the geometry and the dimensions of a planar object. The general organization of the discrete fracture network emerges from this stationary and stochastic process. This thesis explores a pseudo genetic and stochastic approach using rules that drive the seeding and the propagation of non planar objects, and allow the emergence of a fractal organization. The simulation mimics the natural fracturing process by considering the constraint accumulation zone and the shadow zone associated to each fracture already simulated in the fracture seeding, growth and linkage. We explore the impact of the method on the fractal dimension of discrete fracture network models, and we quantify its impact on both the connectivity and the percolation threshold. The validation of the stochastic approach is based on the realism of models both in terms of geometry and impact on its physical behavior. Our approach constrains the geometry of discrete fracture networks at fracture and at fracture network scales using statistic distribution laws and mechanical concepts. Mechanical discontinuities can also be described by indirect data that quantify the response of the fractured rock volume to dynamic or mechanical stimulation. We propose an efficient way to take into account flow information recorded from tracer tests and microseismic events that trigger after a hydraulic stimulation. The method is integrated during the stochastic simulation in order to remove the need of an optimization process that may be time consuming or may impact the fractal organization of the network

<div>The demand for global video has been burgeoning across industries. With the expansion and improvement of video-streaming services, cloud-based video is evolving into a necessary feature of any successful business for reaching internal and external audiences. Over-the-top (OTT) video streaming, e.g., Netfix and YouTube, has been dominating the global IP traffic in recent years. More than 50% of OTT video traffic are now delivered through content distribution networks (CDNs). Even though multiple solutions have been proposed for improving congestion in the CDN system, managing the ever-increasing traffic requires a fundamental understanding of the system and the different design fexibilities (control knobs) to make the best use of the hardware limitations. In Addition, there is no analytical understanding for the key quality of experience (QoE) attributes (stall duration, average quality, etc.) for video streaming when transmitted using CDN-based multi-tier infrastructure, which is the focus of this thesis. The key contribution of this thesis is to provide a white-box analytical understanding of the key QoE attributes of the enduser in cloud storage systems, which can be used to systematically address the choppy user experience and have optimized system designs. The rst key design involves the scheduling strategy, that chooses the subset of CDN servers to obtain the content. The second key design involves the quality of each video chunk. The third key design involves deciding which contents to cache at the edge routers and which content needs to be stored at the CDN. Towards solving these challenges, this dissertation is divided into three parts. Part 1 considers video streaming over distributed systems where the video segments are encoded using an erasure code for better reliability. Part 2 looks at the problem of optimizing the tradeoff between quality and stall of the streamed videos. In Part 3, we consider caching partial contents of the videos at the CDN as well as at the edge-routers to further optimize video streaming services. We present a model for describing a today's representative multi-tier system architecture</div><div>for video streaming applications, typically composed of a centralized origin server, several CDN sites and edge-caches. Our model comprehensively considers the following factors: limited caching spaces at the CDN sites and edge-routers, allocation of CDN for a video request, choice of different ports from the CDN, and the central storage and bandwidth allocation. With this model, we optimize different quality of experience (QoE) measures and present novel, yet efficient, algorithms to solve the formulated optimization problems. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms signicantly outperform the state-of-the-art strategies. We take one step further and implement a small-scale video streaming system in a real cloud environment, managed by Openstack, and validate our results</div>

Les précipitations ont une très grande variabilité sur une large gamme d'échelles tant spatiale que temporelle. Cette variabilité est une source importante d'incertitude pour la mesure, les applications et la modélisation, et au-delà pour la simulation et la prévision. De plus, les précipitations sont des processus extrêmement intermittents et possèdent plusieurs régimes d’invariance d’échelle. Le générateur de champ précipitant développé au cours de la thèse est basé sur la modélisation statistique de l’hétérogénéité et de l’intermittence des précipitations à fine échelle. L’originalité de la modélisation repose en partie sur l’analyse de données observées par un disdromètre à très fine résolution. Cette modélisation qui diffère des modèles existants dont la résolution est plutôt de l’ordre de la minute, voire de l’heure ou du jour, permet d’obtenir des simulations dont les propriétés sont réalistes sur une large gamme d’échelle. Ce simulateur permet de produire des séries chronologiques dont les caractéristiques statistiques sont similaires aux observations aussi bien à l’échelle de simulation (15s) qu’après dégradation (1h et 1 jour). Les propriétés multi-échelles du simulateur sont obtenues grâce à une approche hybride qui repose sur une simulation à fine échelle des évènements de pluie par un générateur multifractal associé à une simulation du support basée sur une hypothèse de type Poissonienne. Une étape de re-normalisation des taux de pluie assure l’adaptation du générateur à la zone climatique considérée.Le simulateur permet la génération de cartes 2D de lames d’eau. La méthodologie développée pour les séries chronologiques est étendue au cas 2D. Le simulateur stochastique multi-échelle 2D ainsi développé reproduit les caractéristiques géostatistiques et topologiques à la résolution de 1x1 km2. Ce générateur est utilisé dans le cadre d’une étude de faisabilité d’un nouveau système d’observation des précipitations en milieu urbain. Le principe de ce système repose sur l’utilisation de mesures opportunistes de l’affaiblissement subit par les ondes radios émises par les satellites géostationnaires TV-SAT dans la bande 10.7-12.7 GHz. De façon plus spécifique on suppose que les terminaux de réception TVSAT installés en ville chez les particuliers sont capables de mesurer de tels affaiblissements. A ce stade de l’étude nous ne disposons pas de telles observations. L’étude s’appuie donc sur des cartes de précipitations issues du générateur 2D et d’un réseau de capteur hypothétique. Le système d’observation envisagé permettra d’estimer les champs de précipitation (30x30 Km2) et avec une résolution spatiale de 0.5x0.5 Km2. / Precipitations are highly variable across a wide range of both spatial and temporal scales. This variability is a major source of uncertainty for the measurement and modeling, also for the simulation and prediction. Moreover, rainfall is an extremely intermittent process with multiple scale invariance regimes. The rain-field generator developed during the thesis is based on the fine-scale statistic modeling of rain by the mean of its heterogeneity and intermittency. The modeling originality partially rest on the analysis of fine-scale disdrometer data. This model differs from other existing models whose resolution is roughly a minute or even an hour or a day. It provides simulations with realistic properties across a wide range ofscales. This simulator produces time series with statistical characteristics almost identical to the observations both at the 15s resolution and, after degradation, at hourly or daily resolutions. The multi-scale properties of our simulator are obtained through a hybrid approach that relies on a fine scale simulation of rain events using a multifractal generator associated with a rain support simulation based on a Poissonian-type hypothesis. A final re-normalization step of the rain rate is added in order to adapt the generator to the relevant climate area. The simulator allows the generation of 2D water-sheets. The methodology developed in the first part is extended to the 2 Dimension case. The multi-scale 2D stochastic simulator thus developed can reproduce geostatistical and topological characteristics at the spatial resolution of 1x1 km2.This generator is used in the scope of the feasability study of a new observation system for urban area. The principle of this system is based on the opportunistic use of attenuation measurements provided by geostationary TV satellites which radio waves lay in the 10.7 to 12.7 GHz bandwidth. More specifically it is assumed that the SAT-TV reception terminals installed in private homes are able to measure such attenuations. At this stage of the study we do not have such observations. The study is therefore based on rainfall maps generated using the 2D generator in addition to a hypothetical sensor network. The considered observation system will allow to estimate precipitation fields (30 x 30 km2) with a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5 km2.

This thesis deals with the systems reliability. At First, there is discussed the concept of reliability itself and its indicators, which can specifically express reliability. The second chapter describes the different kinds of reliability models for simple and complex systems. It further describes the basic methods for construction of reliability models. The fourth chapter is devoted to a very important Markov models. Markov models are very powerful and complex model for calculating the reliability of advanced systems. Their suitability is explained here for recovered systems, which may contain absorption states. The next chapter describes the standby redundancy. Discusses the advantages and disadvantages of static, dynamic and hybrid standby. There is described the influence of different load levels on the service life. The sixth chapter is devoted to the implementation, description of the application and description of the input file in XML format. There are discussed the results obtaining in experimental calculations.

Le trafic ferroviaire urbain est quotidiennement sujet à des perturbations qui le dévient de son comportement nominal. Afin de minimiser l'impact de ces perturbations, les opérateurs ferroviaires usent de diverses techniques. Nonobstant leur efficacité, les performances de ces techniques ne sont généralement pas bien étudiées ni sont-elles optimales, car élaborées empiriquement. C'est dans ce cadre-ci que vient cet ouvrage fournir des solutions qui permettent d'évaluer ces techniques de régulation et d'en comparer les performances dans des contextes variés. L’approche proposée se base sur des variantes de réseaux de Petri comme modèles et sur la méthode de Monte-Carlo pour en simuler l’exécution. Cette combinaison a donné naissance à SIMSTORS, un outil de simulation pour les systèmes ferroviaires urbains, et plus généralement, pour les systèmes stochastiques régulés. Additionnellement, nous nous intéressons dans cette thèse à la problématique de la réalisabilité des tables horaires qui pilotent le trafic ferroviaire. Ces tables décrivent le comportement temporel désiré des systèmes pour lesquels elles sont conçues. Or, la construction de ces tables ne garantit pas toujours sa réalisabilité, notamment dans un contexte stochastique. Ainsi, nous proposons ici une méthode permettant de vérifier si une table horaire est bien réalisable avec une probabilité strictement positive. / Urban rail traffic is subject to numerous disrupting events that drift it from its nominal behavior. In order to minimize the impact of these disturbances, rail operators rely on a set of techniques. Despite their efficiency, performances of theses techniques are rarely well studied, nor are they of proven optimality; a direct consequence of them being empirically built. It is in this particular context that comes our work to provide solutions that allow for the evaluation of such techniques and for the comparison of their relative performances in various scenarios. The proposed approach is based on variants of Petri nets as models, and on the Monte-Carlo method for the simulation of their execution. This combination has led to the development of SIMSTORS, a tool for the simulation of urban rail systems, and more generally, stochastic systems under dynamic rescheduling. Additionally, this thesis addresses the question of timetable realizability; that is whether or not a given timetable is indeed realizable by a system for which it was built. Indeed, a timetable is meant to drive the behavior of a system but there is no guarantee as to its realizability. We therefore propose a method for the verification of the realizability of timetables with a strictly positive probability.